You see in Elm Wealth’s "Crystal Ball" game, you'll be pitted against Wall Street’s best traders across US SP500 & 30 year bond futures.
However in order to rebalance the odds a little, each player is allowed to read the front page news from the Wall Street Journal one day in advance.
Meaning before ‘staking your bet’, you'll be told what actually happened in terms of key macro events, corporate results and economic data 24 hours earlier than everyone else. Which is the Crystal Ball part of Elm’s game.
https://elmwealth.com/crystal-ball-challenge/
From this, you’ll then be allowed to go either long or short across the equity & bond markets at prices prevailing the day before. Albeit anything that mentions what US stock/Treasury prices actually did have been redacted from the front pages.
In terms of the rules, each player is given $1m of imaginary money at the start, and has 15 days’ headlines to trade – or 1 per year chosen randomly.
There are no transaction/financing fees and 1x leverage means that your position size is the same as your total capital value.
Lastly you can also "skip" any day you don't feel like betting, and also "finish" at anytime – ie if you don’t wish to trade all 15 headlines.
As comparatives, please find below the Elm averages so far, alongside my own attempt.
Very best of luck everyone. It's not quite as easy as you might think!!
Indeed up to last Thursday (10th Oct), 8,117 people have had a crack - losing on average -31.2% or $322k each after 15 rounds.