The collapse in the Atlanta Fed's Q1'25 GDPNow forecast (see below) is certainly something for investors to watch.
Sure, there is a degree of normalisation after the +2.3% Q4'24 reading, which was artificially boosted by the stocking of imported goods from China and elsewhere, ahead of Trump's new tariffs.
Nonetheless, the recent steep decline in activity levels does imply the US economy has just hit a mini brick wall.
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