Analysts at Canaccord Genuity hiked their target price on copper mining firm Atalaya Mining Plc from 580p to 830p on Tuesday as it aligned its methodology with its broader base metals coverage.
Canaccord Genuity said Atalaya has performed strongly YTD, outperforming the copper miner average due to good operating performance and leverage to the copper price. It also noted that the firm was trending toward the lower end of its cost guidance range, assisting in cash flow generation at a time when copper prices are showing strength.
Going forward, Canaccord Genuity sees Atalaya unlocking "significant value" with higher grade material from the San Dionisio pit, processing of polymetallic material at the plant via the construction of a zinc/lead circuit, and potentially a positive decision for brownfield copper project, Touro, located in the Galicia region of northwest Spain.
The Canadian bank also noted that ongoing trade tensions were likely to retain "a degree of headline risk" in the market, and stated that longer-term, it sees the potential for "strategic stockpiling" by governments to protect against supply chain disruptions.
"We have updated our model for the 3Q25 operating update, and we increased our copper price deck given recent strength. We assume US$4.85/lb in 4Q25 and US$5.19/lb in FY26 (previously US$4.50/lb). We now assume costs will come in at the bottom of the guidance range (~US$2.60/lb cash costs, ~US$3.10/lb AISC). Given the lower recoveries in Q3, we have also taken the opportunity to risk 2026 production with a more gradual step up in output to 55kt (previously 58kt). The combination of these changes has led to a +14% and +24% increase in our EBITDA estimates in FY25E and FY26E, respectively," said Canaccord, which has a 'buy' rating on the stock.
Canaccord also said it had taken the opportunity to align its target price methodology with its broader base metals coverage, based on a 50/50 combination of a 1x price-to-net asset value ratio and a 6x enterprise value-to-underlying earnings ratio.
Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com