Research on Seplat Energy PLC (SEPL:LON) from Capital Access Group
Seplat's results for FY25 demonstrated the transformational impact of the MPNU acquisition and came in ahead of our forecasts despite lower production and price realisations in the fourth quarter. The strength of the performance was demonstrated by a 20% YoY hike in the quarterly dividend taking the full year dividend to USc25, up 52% YoY. Net cash generation was strong and with capex coming in a little lower than guidance, net debt fell 25% YoY to US$673m, despite hefty true-up payments to ExxonMobil in 4Q25. That took leverage to 0.5x. Guidance for 2026 is for a c10% YoY increase in production to 135-155kboed, capex of US$360m-US$440m, with unit opex dropping c10% to US$13.5/boe-US$14.5/boe.