Hybridan Monthly, 3 November 2025

Market Comment:

View from the Broker’s Desk

View from the Broker’s Desk: A clear message to the Ivory Tower - do not get complacent!

It’s been a fantastic past few weeks in the market and the message from the conversations at the coal face is clear – sentiment is starting to pick up with a surge in primary placings and the welcoming of IPOs such as Beauty Tech Group (£300m market capitalisation), Shawbrook Group (£1.92bn market capitalisation) and Princes Group (£1.1bn market capitalisation). 

Wearing my unashamedly biased small-cap hat, I fear that those in power politically will look upon the success of these IPOs and wonder what we are all worried about in the SMID capital markets world. 

Just in time for Halloween, Begbies Traynor (BEG.L) released their latest Red Flag Alert Report for Q3 2025 which read more like a Stephen King novel.  The UK advisory firm’s Red Flag Alert has been measuring and reporting corporate financial distress since 2004. It has become a benchmark on the underlying health of companies across every sector and region of the UK.  It reported the number of businesses in 'critical' financial distress surged 78.0% year-on-year, with 55,530 companies affected in Q3 2025 (Q3 2024: 31,201). Consumer-facing industries continue to be under the most severe pressure, reflecting subdued discretionary spending and the impact of sustained cost pressures.

 Julie Palmer, Partner at Begbies Traynor, concluded: "the upcoming Budget must deliver urgent support to avoid a wave of failures, especially among SMEs already operating on a knife edge.  Unfortunately for UK businesses, inflation is going nowhere, putting further pressure on companies at a time when wage, tax, and financing costs are already high. Many firms have no room to manoeuvre, and instead of investing for growth, are scaling back just to survive - the opposite of what the economy needs, if it's going to recover and grow.”

This is the crux of the matter – instead of investing for growth, companies are still in survival mode.  Many stalwarts across our ecosystem such as the Quoted Companies Alliance and the Venture Capital Trust Association are lobbying the Government hard on areas such as reforming the regulatory backdrop of our markets and VCT legislation.  These are vital steps in deploying growth capital into UK SMEs so they are able to transition from survival mode to  scale their business in order to make a meaningful contribution to the UK economy.  VCTs now manage over £6.5bn across more than 1,000 startups and scale-ups, supporting over 100,000 jobs. 

In prior years, there was almost a trickle-down effect in institutional demand for equities when large cap IPOs performed well.  However,  irreversible structural damage in the sub £100m market cap arena such as rising redemptions in small cap funds which has largely precluded fund managers from investing in smaller, more illiquid companies, coupled with rising regulation restricting wealth managers from running discretionary portfolios in small cap shares, puts a lid on the trickle-down effect in institutional demand. One example of a company bucking this trend of a non-VCT qualifying sub £50m market cap issuer raising meaningful institutional money is Gelion (GELN.L). The £46m market cap global energy storage innovator announced an equity fundraising of up to £10.5m which will help them build on their strong position as an innovator in the world of battery technology.  This latest round of institutional growth capital will enable the Company to transition to commercial delivery, and this is a blueprint of how the markets service innovative growth companies transitioning from R&D to revenue generation. 

The SMID market cannot be pigeonholed into success being defined as a multibillion-pound IPO getting away.  It is fantastic to see these bigger IPOs, but we are worried about a no man’s land getting bigger between those companies in the £50m market cap range and those over £300m market cap.  More focus needs to be towards enacting legislation that allows already quoted companies to organically grow into larger valuations on market, rather than relying on larger cap companies having to be “brought in.”

The Begbies report can also be interpreted that grave attention is needed to nurture the “IPOs of tomorrow.”  The UK’s private SME market is an incubator for finding the next exciting growth company to list on our listed exchanges as a platform for growth. Those in power politically have had enough warnings and data over the cost of getting this wrong when it comes to supporting our UK SMID economy.  Let’s hope on 26th November we - in the listed markets - are all given an early Christmas present. 

By Niall Pearson
 

Company Newsflow:

1SN Critical Resource

OMG Fast Forward

First Tin 7.875p £35.58m(1SN.L)

Source: Alpha Terminal

A tin development Company with advanced, low capex projects in low-risk jurisdictions including Germany and Australia has two advanced tin projects, in these ethical and reliable mining geographies that should deliver a sustainable material supply to industrial tin consumers. These prospects attracted the investment by Metals X, the major shareholder. The 29.01% shareholder is Australia’s largest tin producer with A$ 219m revenue and Brett Smith, Executive Director of Metals X, and Peter Gunzburg, Chairman of Metals X, are on First Tin’s Board as Non-Executive Directors.

Demand for tin has been growing steadily as it is a critical, clean energy metal, essential for energy transition and digital transformation. The tin price is up from around $28,000 a tonne in January 2025 to recently $38,000 and steady growth is being forecast. Tin is needed for 5G, data centres, and for semi-conductors enabling the digital transformation, AI, robotics and advanced manufacturing. Currently, 97% of the global tin supply comes from higher risk jurisdictions such as in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Myanmar, China and Indonesia where there are ongoing supply disruptions.

First Tin’s 100% owned subsidiary, Saxore Bergbau GmbH, recently reported a finalised revised Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) for the German Gottesberg project. The results confirm the significance of this historical project, with total Indicated and Inferred Resources increasing to 90,900 tonnes of contained Tin assay results from its infill and extension drilling programme.

The Company is in progress drilling at the Taronga tin project in New Zealand. The drilling is designed to convert Inferred resources to Indicated status and to test several interpreted zones of mineralisation close to the proposed pit. The recent assays confirm and extend the mineralisation to the northeast and southwest, indicating the potential for wider and deeper pits, a longer life of mine, and stronger project economics. The potential conversion of waste rock to ore in the current pits has improved from the 1:1 strip ratio and so lowering mining costs. The successful completion of the Taronga drilling programme is unlocking the project's full potential and it could significantly increase the overall resource and reserve base.

The revised estimate takes First Tin's total tin resource base to 367,600 tonnes of tin; the largest undeveloped tin resource base in the OECD and one of the largest undeveloped tin resources bases globally. Third-party studies estimate a combined development CAPEX of $263m for both projects, compared to a combined NPV8 of around $424m, based on a tin price of $30,000/tonne.

The Finals to June 2026 reported a loss of £2.93m compared to a loss of £3.9m. During the year to June 2025, in October 2024, £10.12m was raised leaving the FY June 2025 cash position at £6.37m and a NAV 17% ahead at £44.31m.

Hybridan Comment: These finals show the Company is well placed to increase the resource base of this critical metal and the Company is materially closer to Development Approval for both projects.

Oxford Metrics 43.65p £50.4m (OMG.L)

Source: Alpha Terminal

The smart sensing and software Company, originally founded in 1984, reported on the 15 October that trading for FY September 2025 is in line with expectations. The statement is more significant than it reads, as the financial reports have been erratic, especially since the cash disposal for £52m in May 2022 of Yotta, its infrastructure asset management division.

The business focus is back on smart sensing technology which enables precise high-definition interface between the real physical world and the virtual digital world. The technology advances mean smart sensing can be applied to an increasing set of problems and markets. The Company helps over 10,000 customers in more than 70 countries, including all the world's top 10 computer games companies and the top 20 universities. The technology has applications in the life sciences, entertainment, engineering, and smart manufacturing industries and is used by international customers such as Red Bull, Imperial College London, Dreamscape Immersive, Industrial Light & Magic, and NASA.

After several years in development, Vicon Markerless went live in March 2025. Vicon Markerless helps Visual Effects teams bring ideas to life with greater speed and ease. Dreamscape Immersive's latest VR experience is already powered by Vicon Markerless. The Markerless system comprises a new markerless motion-tracking camera and new software incorporating advanced computer vision, machine learning and proven algorithms to capture human performance without the need for markers. Commercialisation is progressing well, despite the general challenging headwinds.

The Interims to March 2025, reported on 18 June, that the Smart manufacturing division’s revenues increased 194% to £5.3m, which includes the revenue of £3.6m from recently acquired Sempre. The Company also announced the appointment of a dedicated smart manufacturing managing director to drive growth initiatives. Through partnerships with blue-chip manufacturers like Boeing, Ford, and BMW, the smart manufacturing products are used for high precision, automated quality control to ensure “right first time” products. The immediate focus is on integrating the distribution capabilities of Sempre and the vision capabilities of OMG, to capture a greater share of this growth market. The Trading update reported that the division's healthy growth, driven by improved product delivery execution, is building the pipeline into 2026.

The YE cash balance is £37.0m which is after some sizable cash deductions. This included the acquisition consideration of £5.4m for Sempre, now part of the smart manufacturing division. There was also a dividend of 3.25p per share amounting to £4.2m. £8.3m was spent on share buybacks with permission to buy up to £10m after extending the authority earlier this year.

Expectations for FY September 2025 are broadly in line with forecasts published on Alpha Terminal of revenue of £46.2m, an EBIT of £2.3m, an EBITDA of £6.33m, PBT of £3.73m and an EPS of 2.68p, which is a 10% relative reduction. The dividend, however, is expected to be increased 10.5% to 3.59p. We calculate a prospective P/E of 16.5x and a dividend yield of 8%. We calculate that the EV/EBITDA is at a lowly 2.5x.

The 2026 Forecast on Alpha Terminal shows a 26.7% growth in EPS to 3.28p,with a 21% increase in EBITDA to £7.28m.

Hybridan Comment:  The erratic earnings seem to be levelling and there could be reasonable growth in 2026 which is supported by a cash position of around 70% of the market capitalisation.
 

House Report: News from a house stock

Northern Bear 107.50p £14.78m (NTBR.L)*

The H1 Trading Update to September 2025 reported business is running above expectations and our forecast was upgraded (moderately). As the FY is March 2026, and the roofing division which accounts for 42% of turnover, is weather dependent, we have hopefully kept some power dry. There was another pleasant trading surprise of a £1m non-recurring profit being recognised.

The strategy remains to invest in developing people and facilities to drive core building services growth with improved efficiency. This is easily funded by working capital as cash is expected to increase to £5.5m.The reported improvement in the operating business is a result of carefully targeted investments, a wide mix of private and public sector customers and of course, helped by the dry summer. Part of the roofing business is being relocated to support its continuing growth.

The new March 2026 earnings forecast, excluding the £1m windfall profit, shows 12.7% growth in revenue to £88m, a steady gross margin of 23.5%,  Profit before tax of £3.63m and an EPS of 19.8p. Further growth is anticipated in these key financials and the interims to September are due later this month.

Hybridan’s Comment: As the Company successfully invests in upvaluing its services and has funds for expansion, the prospective P/E of 5.5x for March 2026 seems low, particularly compared to the Construction Services sector average P/E of 13.6x.

Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly December 2024, NTBR share price was 54.5p

* A corporate client of Hybridan LLP
 

Updates/Events:

News trickled rather than flowed during half term, but reports from these companies are attention grabbing

Hercules  37.5p. £30.22m (HERC.L)

The technology-enabled labour supply company for the UK infrastructure and construction sectors acquired a 70% shareholding in Warrington-based Lyons Power Services Ltd (LPS). LPS is a specialist UK and overseas provider of power and energy infrastructure services and the acquisition cost £702,800; to be paid half in cash and half in shares. The remaining 30% of the business will continue to be held by LPS’s owner manager who will stay involved in driving future growth. In the year ending 31 January 2025, LPS generated revenues of £1.4m and a profit before tax of £0.29m. The acquisition is part of Hercules' strategy to grow its services in complementary and high-growth infrastructure sectors. The UK is embarking on a major upgrade of its electrical infrastructure, with National Grid proposals investing £58bn to support a projected 64% increase in electricity demand by 2035, so this acquisition would appear to bode well.

Hybridan Comment: Hercules business operations have advanced substantially, but not the valuation, which ought to improve as further contracts are won.

Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly October 2025, Hercules share price then 35.5p

KRM22 44.00p £26.1m (KRM.L)

Funds have been raised by this technology and software investment company with a particular focus on risk management in capital markets predominately for Exchange Traded Derivatives (ETDs). Approximately £9.2m was raised at 40p a share, which was a 3.6% discount to the preceding closing price. There has been progress since our last Hybridan comments, with the value of its Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) increasing from £6.6m at the end of FY 2024 to £7.5m by October 2025. KRM22's software applications manage a firms' trading and corporate risk profile. Regulatory pressure is driving firms to refine procedures and technology enables greater accuracy, efficiency, and compliance. The funds raised will repay the £5.7m debt facility with Trading Technologies, with the rest used to diversify the existing suite of ETD applications. This will be into larger vertical markets of Equities, Fixed Income, FX and Crypto; offering multi-asset risk management solutions.

Hybridan Comment: New niche services into a wider range of markets may take time to be adopted so the shares could tread water.

Last Comment in Hybridan June 2025, KRM share price then 36.5p

Seraphim Space Investment Trust 87.00p £206.36m (SSIT .L)

The space-tech investment company reported Finals to June 2025. The NAV increased 23.2% to £281.1m or 118.52p per share. The rise was driven by fair value net gains on defence related investments, particularly from the Company's largest holding, ICEYE, which doubled in value. Cash in hand reduced 20.3% to £12.5m after investing £14.2m in new opportunities and receiving £12.5m from disposals. In aggregate, the fair value of the private portfolio (excluding Voyager, which went public during the year) increased 33.4% over the year.66% of the portfolio has a robust cash runway, of which 58% of the investee companies are fully funded and 8% funded for 12 months or more from 30 June 2025. The outlook for the space sector appears be positive, driven by increasing defence budgets. Europe has committed EU1trn in new defence budgets, with space expected to be a major beneficiary. The Company is targeting an annualised total return on the portfolio of at least 20%.

Hybridan Comment: The timing of our comments last month seems inspired with a 23% share price rise. Due to the 23% increase in the net asset value, however, the share price discount to NAV has only  narrowed to 26.6%, which still leaves room for further price improvement.

Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly  October 2025, SSIT share price then 70.5p
 

In the news in November

Ten Lifestyle Group 51.25p £50.0m (TENG.L)

Formerly known as Ten Lifestyle Group, Ten Technologies partners with financial institutions and other premium brands to attract and retain wealthy and mass affluent customers. Results for the year-ending August 2025 are to be reported on 12 November. The trading update was ahead of market expectations, with a 5% increase in revenue to £62.9m resulting from a 7% increase in Active Members and expected EBITDA increased by 14% to £14.6m, which we calculate at Hybridan  gives an EV/EBITDA of just 2.75x.

In H2, the Group secured two Medium contracts and several strategically important small contracts. Several existing contracts were also renewed, including a multi-year large contract in Europe with an uplift in fees for a digital service. Net cash is around £10.6m compared to H1 2024 of £6.8m and FY 2024 of £3.9m. Forecast PBT, published by Alpha Terminal, is for £3.85m from £1.02m and an EPS of 3.72p up from 1.2p. This represents we calculate a prospective P/E of 14.1x for FY 2025, before dropping to 10x if growth comes through as expected for FY 2026.

The Group continues to investment in AI-driven technology for new services and its digital platform to enhance efficiency, scalability, and service quality. The CEO states this will create a ‘step change in customer services’ and there is a robust pipeline of opportunities. The name change to Ten Technologies reflects the Company's evolution since IPO into a technology-driven leader in customer experience. The new name reflects the central role of technology in the Company's operations, products and growth strategy..

Hybridan Comment:  The additional services are scalable and profits and cashflow seem set to accelerate regardless of the relatively moderate revenue growth.

** Share prices, market capitalisations, and top 3 Shareholders all reported as at the close on 3 November 2025

By Jon Levinson

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