SP Angel . Morning View . Friday 10.04.26

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

G2 Goldfields (GTWO CN) – Acquisition from G Mining Ventures to form 700kozpa producer

Metals Exploration (MTL LN ) – Exploration concessions granted in Nicaragua

Gold ($4,740/oz) pares gains despite Chinese buying as dollar edges higher and US Treasuries weaken again

• Gold prices have continued to ease from the recent rebound to $4,830/oz.
• The metal is weakening slightly, with silver and PGMs also sliding.
• The recent dollar sell-off has paused, with the index up slightly today, pressuring precious metals.
• Treasuries are weakening, with the US 10 year yield climbing back to 4.3%.
• Iran continues to assert control over the Straits of Hormuz, as Israel and Hezbollah clash.
• The Peoples Bank of China bought a further 160,000oz of gold in March continuing 17-months of consecutive gold purchases.
• The news offsets the impact of sales by Russia, Turkey and the sale and repurchase by the Banque de France.

Copper ($12,700/t) holds higher ground amid wider base metals rally

• Copper has held a new level around $12,700/t following despite significant investor liquidations on the Iran conflict.
• Traders had initially been concerned over longer-term economic impacts from higher energy costs, reducing copper demand.
• Investment funds are reported to have sold ~43k lots of LME copper (1.1mt Cu Eq.) cutting investment in copper to low levels.
• Chinese buyers are holding off on copper purchases amid higher prices, with refined imports falling to 125kt in February, lowest since 2011.
• Chinese imports fell 25%yoy over the first two months of 2026.
• We are watching Freeport’s Grasberg updates closely this month, following Ivanhoe’s guidance cut at Kamoa Kakula in March.
• Copper markets flipped into deficit last following the supply shocks from Grasberg, Kamoa and El Teniente.
• Grasberg is expected to return to normal production in the next 18 months but any delay will likely add further upside pressure to copper.
• LME and SHFE visible stocks have soared to new highs as traders have piled metal into official warehouses.
• But, while this metal is visible we believe much of this metal is not really for sale with owners including:
  • China’s SRB
  • US based stock waiting for Trump to raise import tariffs on copper
  • Industrial consumer inventory
• Iran - Satellite data shows the Sar Chesmeh and Khatoon Abad smelters are closed. The smelters have 250,000tpa and 120,000tpa capacity respectively

Aluminium is rising this morning and tin is also stronger, rising above $47k/t.

Iran – metal production

• Copper - Iran hosts 21bnt of copper reserves of which 16bnt are seen as extractable  ~2% of the world's extractable copper reserves.
  • Refined copper cathode production 321,000t in 2024 representing ~1.2% of global production.
  • The Sarcheshmeh, Miduk, and Sungun mines were producing >1.2mtpa of copper concentrate representing 1.8-2% of global production.
• Zinc production ~235,000t. Iran hosts around ~15mt of reserves at the Angouran and Mehdiabad mines.
• Aluminium production >600,000tpa from SALCO, IRALCO, Almahdi and Iran Alumina representing around 1% of global production
• REEs  
  • Monazite processing started last year producing mischmetal ingots with Cerium, Lanthanum, Neodymium, and Yttrium.
  • Iran has been working on integrating REE and uranium processing for military and civilian purposes.
  • Strategic and technological collaborations with Russia and China partners are designed to build local supply
• Lithium: Iran reported the discovery of 8.5mt of lithium-rich hectorite clay in Hamadan.
• Steel - 32mt in 2025 and was targeting 55mtpa in 2030. This makes Iran the 10th biggest producer of steel globally
  • Iran produces roughly 100mt of iron ore concentrate representing ~4% of global supply.
  • DRI ~33mt using the MIDREX process meaning production is dependent on natural gas. Iran accounts for >25% of global DRI production.
• The industry is split between the mines and IMIDRO the Iranian Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation Organization which runs many of the processing operations.

ii Mining Insight videos from Cape Town:

• Mining Insights: global trends in critical metals
• Rare earth metals: what investors should know
• Critical minerals: China and Trump
• Outlook for gold and silver price

IG TV commodities: https://youtu.be/oE6-k3hQDsM?si=sXBMY_UOZpvMP8EA

IG TV Oil&Gas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlMVGvbgE9o

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Currencies

US$1.1686/eur vs 1.1661/eur previous. Yen 159.28/$ vs 158.89/$. SAr 16.436/$ vs 16.488/$. $1.343/gbp vs $1.339/gbp. 0.706/aud vs 0.703/aud. CNY 6.832/$ vs 6.838/$.

Dollar Index 98.93 vs 99.09 previous.

Economics

China – PPI rose to 0.5% yoy in March from -0.9% yoy reversing its former factory-gate deflation trend

• The move was driven by higher input costs
• Non-ferrous metal mining prices jumped 36.4%
• Smelting also gained 22.4%
• A number of factors appear to be serving to squeeze production to raise metal and commodity input prices.
• We see China’s anti-involution policy at work here along with the impact of mine and license inspections and closures in certain instances.
• Renewed focus on compliance and environmental issues are thought to be at play
• CPI fell to 1.0% yoy from 1.3% yoy
• Core CPI also fell to 1.1% yoy from 1.8% yoy and was -0.7% lower mom vs a 1.0% rise in February due to extended holidays over the Lunar new Year.
• The effect of rising raw material input prices and weakening consumer demand looks set to squeeze manufacturers which had been posting stronger margins.

Japan – PPI rises to 2.6% in March on 7.9% rise in import costs

• PPI gained 2.6% yoy in March vs 2.1% yoy in February
• Drivers were fuel, chemicals, and metals
• Yen-based import prices jumped 7.9% yoy after a revised 2.7% rise in February
• Yen weakness and higher metals prices were the main drivers.
• BoJ Deputy Governor comments Japan is not currently facing stagflation
• Inflation ~2% target with positive economic growth but higher energy prices are a risk

Ukraine – Ukraine aggressively attacking Russian oil storage and refining and winning back territory from Russia

• Ukraine appears to be making progress in its defense of its territory in the Donbas.
• Ukrainian drones and missiles have been damaging Russian oil infrastructure.
• Russian generals are reported to be questioning the war in Ukraine

Iran - Iranian General Staff spokesman says the entire region will turn into a hell if hostilities escalate

• Any peace in the region must include Lebanon according to the spokesman.
• The Iranian Parliament Speaker claims Lebanon and Iran's allied groups are formally included in the ceasefire framework.
• The Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said The continuation of these aggressions will render negotiations meaningless; our hands will remain on the trigger, and Iran will never abandon its Lebanese brothers and sisters".
• The rhetoric highlights the strong connection between Hezbollah and the Islamic Regime in Iran
• US forces to remain deployed around Iran. Trump warns renewed military action will follow if an agreement is not fully upheld.
• US forces conducted more than 13,000 strikes in thousands of combat missions, destroying Iran’s missile, drone, and naval capabilities, along with its defensive industrial base.

Strait of Hormuz - only four ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday (WSJ)

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,755/oz vs US$4,723/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 98.6moz vs 98.5moz previous

Platinum US$2,065/oz vs US$2,015/oz previous

Palladium US$1,558/oz vs US$1,557/oz previous

Silver US$75.6/oz vs US$73.9/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 801.0moz vs 798.5moz previous

Rhodium US$10,200/oz vs US$10,200/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$12,760/t vs US$12,597/t previous

Aluminium US$3,468/t vs US$3,461/t previous

Nickel US$17,135/t vs US$17,195/t previous

Zinc US$3,322/t vs US$3,279/t previous

Lead US$1,926/t vs US$1,934/t previous

Tin US$47,800/t vs US$46,960/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$97.6/bbl vs US$97.7/bbl previous

·         International energy prices remain elevated going into the weekend as military actions continue on oil and gas facilities in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed as shipowners wait for clearer guidance on access.

·         Henry Hub prices edged higher after the EIA reported a 50bcf w/w storage draw to 1,911bcf, with US inventories now 5% above last year’s level and 5% above the five-year average as LNG export vessel capacity fell 8bcf w/w at 141bcf. The EIA expects natural gas storage injections to end the Summer at 4,015bcf, 6% above the five-year average.

Natural Gas €45.4/MWh vs €46.3/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $85.4/lb vs $85.4/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$103.3/t vs US$102.5/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$471.1/t vs US$470.8/t

HCC FOB Australia US$232.0/t vs US$232.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$133.0/t vs US$131.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$110,880/t vs US$111,509/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$21,956/t vs US$21,936/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,080/t vs US$2,080/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$2,443/mtu vs US$2,443/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$238/lb vs US$243/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.8/lb vs US$5.8/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.8/kg vs US$28.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$252/t vs US$257/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,759/t vs US$2,759/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,149/t vs US$1,148/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$397.5/t vs US$397.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

Tesla plans for smaller, low-cost EV could boost volumes but might hit margins

• Tesla are planning a smaller, cheaper electric SUV people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
• Tesla faces a trade-off between increasing its sales volumes and protecting margins with the planned low-cost model.
• The new model is seen as key for global competition, particularly in markets like China, where lower-cost rivals are gaining ground.
• Demand for Tesla vehicles has slumped over the last year, in response to Musk's divisive political views.
• The company produced 50,000 more vehicles than it delivered last quarter, the widest gap in over four years.

Company News:

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G2 Goldfields (GTWO CN) C$10.8, Mkt Cap C$2.8bn – Acquisition from G Mining Ventures to form 700kozpa producer

• G Mining Ventures announced yesterday it is acquiring G2 Goldfields, who hold the Oko-Ghanie project in Guyana.
• G2 shareholders will receive 0.212 GMIN shares for each G2 shares held.
• G2 shareholders will own 19.9% of the combined company.
• The exchange ratio implied an offer price of C$10.84/share, with an implied fully diluted equity value of C$3bn.
• The transaction will combine GMIN’s Oko West project with G2’s Oko Ghanie project.
• The single project will target LOM production of 500kozpa, boosting synergies with shared infrastructure and mine sequencing.
• Synergies are estimated at C$1bn by reducing Oko-Ghanie CAPEX by C$850m.
• The pro-forma entity will hold company-wide gold production profile of >700kozpa.
• GMIN will fund the construction capital requirements through Toncantinzinho FCF, $288m in cash on the balance sheet and a $350m RCF.
• The transaction implies a 72% premium on GMIN and G2’s 30-day VWAPs.

Metals Exploration (MTL LN) 14.5p, Mkt Cap £432m – Exploration concessions granted in Nicaragua

• Metals Exploration reports the granting of four exploration concessions adjacent to the La India Project in Nicaragua.
• The concessions cover 64,400ha and have been granted for a 25 year term.
• The La Grecia concession holds high-grade veins mapped at surface and represents a low-sulphidation epithermal system target.
• San Cristobal holds multiple veins mapped at surface and represents an additional low-sulphidation epithermal setting.
• The Dos Hermanos target shows two zones of hydrothermal veining over a 600m strike length with high-grade samples and trenching.
• The Las Cruces project holds gold-copper porphyry prospectivity with mapping showing a lithocap style targe at surface.

Conclusion: Management highlights the concession grant strengthens their long-term growth ambitions in Nicaragua and see the concessions as holding potential for future gold resources. Metals Exploration expects first gold from La India by December 2026.

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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