SP Angel . Morning View . Monday 02.02.26

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

African Pioneer (AFP LN)  – £1.8m fundraising to support development of Namibian & Zambian projects

Blencowe Resources (BRES LN)  – Drilling extends the ‘Northern Syncline’ graphite mineralisation at Orom Cross towards the west

Brightstar Resources (BTR AU) – A$180m raised for Goldfields development

FireFly Metals (FFM AU) – Sale of Pickle Crow for A$86m

Metals One (MET1 LN)  – Increased holding in Fulcrum Metals

New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN)  – NFM meets earn-in conditions for 85% interest in Harts Range rare earths project in Australia

Rome Resource (RMR LN)  – Bisie North metallurgical results

Switch Metals (SWT LN)  – High-grade lithium spodumene identified in Issia pegmatites

Tungsten West (TUN LN)  – Hemerdon project economics boosted by strong APT and tin prices

Metals complex corrects as dollar strengthens to 97.14 vs 96.45 on Friday

• There was always going to be some blood on the street with such volatility in the metals complex
• The move reflects exhaustion from the recent widespread real asset rally, with traders taking profit following the strong January rally.
• Lithium has also sold off, although spodumene prices remain firm over $2,200/t in China.

China State metals traders and processors stand to lose substantial sums as trader known as ‘The Hat’ takes flight (Firstpost, Bloomberg)

• SDIC Commodities Co. and other Chinese metal traders are thought to have list > Rmb1bn ($144m) as the ‘Hat’ flees China leaving uncompleted trades.
• The sudden departure of Xu Maohua, known as ‘The Hat’ leaving unfinished trades has caused many traders to book substantial losses.
• Xu Maohua was enabling traders to work around government regulations and run ‘circular trading’.
• More losses are likely to be unearthed as the scandal develops.
• Speculation suggests positions in silver went against ‘The Hat’ as prices rose to extraordinary high levels.
• Unfortunately, Xu Maohua, returns to China we suspect he might not have a head to keep his Hat on!

Gold ($4,645/oz) extends losses amid wider metals sell-off on dollar rebound and margin calls

• Gold slumped to $4,400/oz this morning, before bouncing amid a continuation of the Friday sell-off.
• The metals spectrum slumped on the back of Warsh’s Fed chair nomination which reversed a bearish trade on the dollar.
• Traders had previously expected a more dovish outlook if the less experienced Rick Reider had gained the chair.
• Warsh’s nomination reflects a more ‘sound money’ choice, with focus on controlling inflation and sound monetary policy.
• News today is that US Producer Prices also jumped 0.5% mom in December with services pushing costs higher.
• Services PPI rose 0.7% mom which December goods PPI came in flat.
• Core PPI also rose 0.4% brining annual PPI to 3.0% yoy, above 2.7% yoy expected.

Silver ($81.7/oz) fell 33% on Friday and another 15% this morning before staging a small recovery

• Reports suggest major margin calls in Chinese leveraged traders, with Bloomberg reporting escalated levels of leverage fuelling the sharp sell-off.
• Chinese authorities had warned about elevated leverage in trading, increasing margin requirements.
• CME, the largest derivatives broker globally, raised margin requirements on gold and silver futures on Friday, reflecting similar concerns.

Copper ($12,780/t) sold off alongside other base metals, sliding below $13,000/t this morning, having peaked at $14,532/t in January.

• Copper sold off on the LME falling to $12,415/t from $13,088/t
• Chinese manufacturers often sell surplus metal ahead of the Lunar New Year shutdown
• This year party officials are thought to be encouraging workers take more holidays and spend more to stimulate consumption.
• We are not sure how this will translate into longer shutdowns for industry but it may cause buyers to return more slowly to the market for metals

VOX video:  The most extraordinary week in commodities I've ever witnessed

• Podcast:  The Vox Markets Podcast

IG TV – Commodity Markets Weekly: https://youtu.be/-YKK0NzMLZ0?si=i-83_jtBI8u5bM86

We are now in a new commodities cycle: on VOX: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a

• Podcast: The Vox Markets Podcast / Mining Matters: We are now in a new commodities cycle, says SP Angel's John Meyer

Worth reading - Mineral War: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction by Tomasz Nadrowski

• https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mineral-War-Chinas-Weapons-Destruction/dp/B0GHDYRLZK

Currencies

US$1.1863/eur vs 1.1934/eur previous. Yen 154.90/$ vs 153.86/$. SAr 16.101/$ vs 15.924/$. $1.370/gbp vs $1.377/gbp. 0.696/aud vs 0.700/aud. CNY 6.951/$ vs 6.949/$

Dollar Index 97.14 vs 96.45 previous

Economics:

US/Iran – Brent is down nearly 5% on US-Iran de-escalation news with President Trump saying that Tehran was “seriously talking” with Washington.

• Iran’s top security official said that arrangements for negotiations were underway.

Japan – PM Sanae Takaichi is looking to secure a landslide victory in the coming elections, according to a local poll.

• Liberal Democratic Party is expected to exceed a majority of 233 seats of 465 total, up from current 198 held.
• Together with its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party or Ishin, the alliance is expected to reach 300 seats.
• Takaichi is supporting a strong fiscal stimulus programme that markets are seeing as a risk to the budget pushing bond yields higher.
• The yen is little changed this morning trading around 155 with 10y bond yields flat at ~2.25%.
• General elections are due February 8.

UK – The central bank expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.75% this week.

• The MPC is likely to wait for more proof that inflation is on track for 2% target.
• The committee will also issue updated economic forecasts.

Russia/Ukraine – Another round of trilateral meetings between Russia and Ukraine mediated by the US to take place in Abu Dhabi this week.

• Both sides agreed no strikes on energy infrastructure with the agreement reported to have expired last Sunday.
• The situation is exacerbated by cold winter temperatures that dropped to -15 over the weekend and forecast to go well below minus 20 over this week in Kyiv.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,618/oz vs US$5,136/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 100.5moz vs 100.5moz previous

Platinum US$2,041/oz vs US$2,411/oz previous

Palladium US$1,628/oz vs US$1,843/oz previous

Silver US$78.2/oz vs US$105.5/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 823.8moz vs 827.3moz previous

Rhodium US$11,000/oz vs US$11,300/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$12,780/t vs US$13,356/t previous

Aluminium US$3,068/t vs US$3,163/t previous

Nickel US$16,960/t vs US$17,890/t previous

Zinc US$3,306/t vs US$3,381/t previous

Lead US$1,977/t vs US$2,008/t previous

Tin US$47,380/t vs US$52,500/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$66.2/bbl vs US$69.7/bbl previous

Henry Hub Gas US$3.59/mmBtu vs US$3.87/mmBtu last Friday

·        Brent crude oil prices tumbled back towards $65/bbl after the weekend passed peacefully in the Middle East and OPEC+ confirmed no changes to production quotas for March, the final month of its previously announced suspension in output increases during 1Q26.

·        The US Baker Hughes rig count rose 2 to 546 units last week (-36 or -6% y/y), with oil rigs flat at 411 units (-68 y/y) and gas rigs up 3 to 125 units (+27 y/y), with the Cana Woodford Basin adding 5 rigs w/w to 22 units (+3 y/y).

Natural Gas €34.6/MWh vs €40.8/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $99.0/lb vs $101.5/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$102.8/t vs US$103.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$465.7/t vs US$466.0/t

HCC FOB Australia US$248.0/t vs US$233.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$118.3/t vs US$108.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$107,687/t vs US$107,072/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$20,861/t vs US$21,515/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,195/t vs US$2,255/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,433/mtu vs US$1,393/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$116/lb vs US$115/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.7/lb vs US$5.7/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.5/kg vs US$24.5/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$261/t vs US$261/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,908/t vs US$2,908/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,129/t vs US$1,130/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$367.5/t vs US$367.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV and Battery news

BYD sales fall for fifth month in a row on back of low consumer demand and seasonal factors

• BYD sales fell for the fifth consecutive month in January 2026 and down 4.2% yoy, but BYD maintained its position as the top EV seller globally.
• The company says that sales have been impacted by lower consumer demand at the end of 2025 and seasonal factors like the upcoming Lunar New Year.
•  China's government has also eased tax incentives for EVs which is expected to further impact sales over the rest of the year.

CATL claims latest 5C ultra-fast charging battery will last 1m km

• Leading battery manufacturer CATL released a video on Friday titled '5C Charging: 1,000,000km Made Easy'
• The company states its new battery retains 80% of its capacity after 3,000 full charge-discharge cycles, the equivalent to a theoretical driving distance of 1.8m km.
• CATL says that this life cycle is 6x the current industry average and will likely exceed the vehicles lifespan.
• A 5C battery can complete a full charge in around 12 minutes.



Company News:

African Pioneer (AFP LN) 0.95p, Mkt Cap £2.8m – £1.8m fundraising to support development of Namibian & Zambian projects

·        African Pioneer reports that it has raised £1.8m, via the issue of 200m new shares at 0.9p/share, to progress its Namibian copper and gold projects.

·        We estimate that the new shares represent approximately 38% of the enlarged company.

·        Directors participated by subscribing for a total of ~10m of the new shares with Messrs Bird, Cordier and Samtani each subscribing for ~2.2m shares each and Mr Thgesen for ~3.3m.

·       Thanking new and existing shareholders for their support Executive Chairman, Colin Bird, said that the additional funds “will allow the Company to focus on the technical evaluation on the Ongombo and Ongeama licences in Namibia before proceeding to the feasibility study and if appropriate thereafter, mine construction”.

·        At Ongombo, where the “existing Ongombo starter pit … [which hosts 1mt at an average grade of 1.33% copper, 0.17g/t gold and 6.3g/t silver further drilling is planned] … to facilitate detailed mine design for both the Ongombo and Ongeama projects” and to investigate “up-dip extensions to the northeast of the current pit outline”.

·       As well as its Namibian projects, African Pioneer holds “highly prospective copper exploration licences in Northwest Zambia, some 100km from the Ivanhoe Kamoa operating mine”.

·       Mr. Bird explained that these “licences are situated in the Western Foreland geological architecture as well as the Fold and Thrust Belt. … [and said that African Pioneer intends] … to progress these licences in the coming dry season”

Blencowe Resources (BRES LN) 7.85p, Mkt Cap £39m – Drilling extends the ‘Northern Syncline’ graphite mineralisation at Orom Cross towards the west

• Blencowe Resources reports that 72 shallow drillholes withing its ‘Phase 7’ drilling programme at the Orom Cross graphite deposit in Uganda have identified a new deposit forming a western extension of the Northern Syncline deposit.
• Results from the initial 15 holes at the new deposit, named the Iyan deposit, show “thick, continuous near-surface graphite mineralisation at Iyan” with lateral continuity and “30-31 metres of continuous mineralisation from surface”.
• Iyan “has currently been identified over a strike length of approximately 1,800 metres, with drilling and supporting geophysical interpretation indicating potential extensions of 200-300 metres to the south and 100-200 metres to the west”.
• Today’s announcement explains that the “shallow Iyan drilling was deliberately designed to define near-surface, bulk mineable graphite mineralisation, with holes drilled to a planned depth of approximately 30 metres” and the company confirms that previously reported deeper drilling “indicated strong mineralisation all the way to 100 metres”.
• Acknowledging the “excellent work of the Blencowe technical team, our drilling contractors ADT and our independent geological consultants Minrom … [Executive Chairman, Cameron Pearce said that the new results] … come at an important time as we advance funding and downstream discussions”.
• He said that “Orom-Cross stands out for both scale and product quality … In a market increasingly focused on securing sustainable, high grade, non-Chinese graphite via new critical mineral supply chains”.
• The existing Orom Cross DFS, covers an initial 15 year mine life at a production rate of 20,000tpa of TGC concentrates from mid-2027 and envisages that capital expenditure of US$40m, followed by US$120m for a second phase raising production 70ktpa of concentrates  plus 20,000tpa of USPG (uncoated spheronised purified graphite) will deliver an NPV10% of US$1.09bn and an IRR of 96%.

Conclusion: Recent drilling has identified additional near-surface graphite mineralisation at Orom Cross, Uganda

Brightstar Resources (BTR AU) A$0.5, Mkt Cap A$352m – A$180m raised for Goldfields development

• Australian gold developer Brightstar has raised A$175m via a placement and A$5m through a share purchase plan.
• The placement is being conducted at A$0.5/share, a 9.5% discount to the 20 day VWAP.
• Funds will provide the equity component for the construction of the 1.5mtpa CIL processing plant at Laverton, part of the Goldfields Hub Project.
• Funds will also support further exploration and study costs at Sandstone, to reach FID.
• The Goldfields DFS outlined average annual production of 75kozpa over 6 years from reserves of 6.9mt at 1.6g/t Au for 351koz.
• Peak funding estimated at A$188m, with AISC of A$2,998/oz.
• Brightstar is exploring a 4-5mtpa plant at Sandstone, which holds a current MRE of 2.4moz at 1.5g/t Au.

FireFly Metals (FFM AU) A$1.94, Mkt Cap A$1.5bn – Sale of Pickle Crow for A$86m

• FireFly Metals has agreed to sell its 70% interest in Pickle Crow to Bellavista Resources.
• The all-share deal values the stake in Pickle Crow and Sioux Lookout project at A$86.1m.
• Firefly shareholders will potentially own up to 40% of Bellavista.
• Bellavista is undertaking a A$25m capital raising for a regional exploration programme at the assets.
• Bellavista is led by ex-De Grey team Glenn Jardine and Peter Canterbury.
• Management notes the transaction helps Firefly simplify its portfolio and reduce capital requirements.
• Pickle Crow holds 11.9mt at 7.2g/t Au for 2.8moz.

Metals One (MET1 LN) 2.1p, Mkt Cap £22m – Increased holding in Fulcrum Metals

• Metals One confirms that it has increased its interest in AIM listed Fulcrum Metals which is described as a “pioneer in the application of innovative cyanide-free technologies to recover precious and critical metals from mine waste”.
• MetalsOne is exercising around 2.9m warrants, at 5p, in Fulcrum Metals raising its interest to 6.33% of the company.
• Today’s announcement explains that “Fulcrum has issued Metals One new warrants over 1,458,334 shares with an exercise price of 10p, valid for 18 months”.
• Managing Director, Daniel Maling, said that “Metals One is pleased with the progress Fulcrum is making with the development of the Teck-Hughes and Sylvanite projects in Canada where Fulcrum is focused on using environmentally friendly leaching technology developed by Extrakt Process Solutions to recover precious metals from mine tailings”.

New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN) 0.98p, Mkt Cap £17m – NFM meets earn-in conditions for 85% interest in Harts Range rare earths project in Australia

• New Frontier Minerals report their completion of the earn-in conditions for 85%  of the Harts Range rare earth project, 140km from Alice Springs, Australia.
• The earn-in gives NFM an 85% interest in tenement, EL32513, within the Harts Range Heavy Rare Earths Project.
• The tenement is strategically important component of the Harts Range Project with the relevant documentation submitted to the Northern Territory regulator for the formal transfer of the mineral title.
• NFM already hold 100% of tenements EL34110 and EL34109 enabling further ground for exploration around the Harts Range rare earth prospect.
• The tenements are seen as prospective for dysprosium, terbium and associated critical minerals.
• Management are also due to start marketing in the US to support the new OTCQB listing.
• Assay results from the recent reverse circulation drill campaign are due shortly.
• Previous bulk sample results from a 25kg sample at the Cusp prospect on Harts Range assayed 1.72% TREO (total rare earth oxides)
  • “including 0.19% Dy2O3, 0.03% Tb4O7), 4.51% Nb2O5 and 0.91% Ta2O5”.
• Beneficiation of the raw ore from this 25kg, surface, bulk sample shows a ~20x upgrade in TREO ‘Total rare-earth oxide’ content to ~35% from ~1.7%.

Conclusion: The assays from the 46 hole drilling will be critical for determining the potential grade and extent of the prospect.

*SP Angel acts as broker to New Frontier Minerals

Rome Resource (RMR LN) 0.25p, Mkt Cap £18m – Bisie North metallurgical results

• Rome Resources has released results from initial metallurgical testing of mineralisation from its Bisie North project in the DRC.
• Testing of bulk samples of the “tin, copper and zinc zones … [was conducted by SGS to] … assess the potential for commercial recovery of the various commodity metals from the ore”.
• Results for the tin zone show the test material responding “well to gravity pre-concentration with 80% of the Sn reporting to a first concentrate at a grade of over 10% Sn from a head grade of 0.6% Sn in less than 5% of the mass”.
• “The copper zone sample has also responded well to gravity pre-concentration with 96% of the Cu reporting to a concentrate at a grade of 3.7% Cu from a head grade of 2.4% Cu in less than 63% of the mass”.
• Today’s announcement also confirms that the “copper sample responded very well to flotation with 95.5% of the Cu reporting to the rougher flotation at a grade of 9.5% Cu”.
• Zinc in the copper flotation sample was recovered following copper indicating that “differential flotation may therefore be considered to separate the Cu and Zn”.
• CEO, Paul Barrett, said these “preliminary results are highly encouraging for the potential commercialisation of both the tin and copper at Bisie North.  As the copper is developed at shallow depths in the Mont Agoma deposit, recovery and monetisation of this is expected to be highly accretive to the overall project economics”.
• Mr. Barrett confirmed that “the drilling campaign at Kalayi continues and we will move to Mont Agoma next month to test further the extent of the tin and copper mineralisation”.

Conclusion: Initial metallurgical results show mineralisation from the Bisie North responding to conventional gravity and flotation recovery.

Switch Metals (SWT LN) 13.3p, Mkt Cap £15m – High-grade lithium spodumene identified in Issia pegmatites

• Côte d'Ivoire battery metals explorer reports encouraging spodumene exploration results from its Issia Project.
• Switch has been conducting a pitting and mapping programme around its tantalum-rich drainage basin.
• Spodumene grading between 1-2.58% li2O has been identified via pLIBS from grab samples.
• The results suggest the Issia pegmatites hold potential for both tantalum and lithium.
• The lithium discovery, now named Kabore, lies within the north-west trending Issia pegmatite corridor.
• Management states it will look to accelerate work at Issia in parallel to the delivery of the ongoing tantalum MRE definition.

Tungsten West (TUN LN) 22p, Mkt Cap £154m – Hemerdon project economics boosted by strong APT and tin prices

• Tungsten West has provided a progress report on the operating and project financing of its plans to resume tungsten production at its Hemerdon tungsten project in Devon.
• Today’s announcement confirms that Tungsten West has “progressed long-lead orders for key equipment, detailed engineering work, and has begun on-boarding key Project resources to commence the refurbishment and start-up process whilst simultaneously advancing the operational pre-conditions required to recommence operations”.
• Progress is also reported on securing offtake agreements for future tungsten concentrate production with “advanced stage negotiations in relation to offtake agreements, accounting for over 300% of the Company's peak production levels for tungsten concentrate”.
• Interest from potential off-takers reflects, in our view, the strategic significance of a long-life western world tungsten source in a market dominated by China, Russia and Vietnam.
• The company reports that discussions with potential debt providers, in addition to “the Expression of Interest from the US EXIM bank previously announced on 28 August 2025” are making progress and that it expects to “update the market on developments before the end of Q1 2026”.
• In August 2025, the company’s updated Feasibility Study for the project confirmed that, based on a price of US$400/mtu for the baseline ammonium paratungstate (APT) price and US$32,500/t tin (currently >US$700/mtu and ~US$37,000/t) a US$93m investment generates an after-tax NPV7.5% of US$190m and IRR of 29.3% from the production of an average of 332,000 metric tonne units (mtu) of tungsten trioxide and 462t of tin annually over an 11-year period of mining followed by an additional 4 years processing of stockpiled material.
• Explaining the impact of recent robust tungsten and tin prices on the project economics, today’s announcement reports that, using the 28th January commodity prices of US$1,313/mtu for ammonium paratungstate and US$55,953/t for tin, elevates the project NPV7.5% from US$190m to US$1.7bn and lifts the IRR from 29% to 197%.
• CEO, Jeff Court, commented that “since releasing the Updated Feasibility Study, tungsten prices have increased over 200% and tin prices over 70%. As the Company is fully leveraged to market prices, the Project's economics have vastly improved, underlining the importance of advancing the Project rapidly”.
• He also explained the “structural shift in the tungsten market that we have seen since the end of 2024 reflects the ever growing need to provide critical mineral diversification and supply chain resilience to Western economies” reflecting our own view that the Hemerdon project is one of the western world’s larger and strategic tungsten resources in the context of its ‘critical’ status in jurisdictions including the EU, UK, US, Australia, and Japan.

Conclusion: Tungsten West is advancing its operational readiness at Hemerdon as offtake and financing discussions progress and the project’s economics are boosted by recent commodity price strength.

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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