SP Angel . Morning View . Monday 08.12.25

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Chalice Mining (CHN AU) – Gonneville PFS highlights 23 year polymetallic operation

GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc (GROC LN) – Preparation for production of graphite concentrate from Amitsoq graphite mine and EIFO Loan drawdown

Koryx Copper (KRY CN) – Exploration update from Zambia, with drilling due 2Q26

Meteoric Resources (MEI AU) A$0.15, Mkt Cap A$383m – Environmental License update

Rockfire Resources (ROCK LN) – Progress of drilling at Molaoi, Greece

St George Mining (SGQ AU) – Araxa drilling results

Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) – Extension of option to sell the Hazen pozzolan project, Nevada

Wia Gold* (WIA AU) – Drilling highlights mineralised system remains open at depth in boost to underground development plans

Wishbone Gold (WSBN LN) – Exploration progress at Red Setter, WA

Tin ($40,125/t) prices continue to rise as Indonesia closes informal mines

• The Indonesian government continues to crack down on illegal tin mining and smuggling, seizing significant assets.
• Around 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka-Belitung have been shut.
• Six tin smelters have been seized and transferred to State-owned PT Timah.

Copper ($11,689/t) prices continue to rise following significant drawdown from LME

• Copper prices continued their rise this morning following significant drawdowns from LME warehouses last week
• Funds have gone long as physical copper is drawn into the US in anticipation of future new tariffs from Trump.
• Rio Tinto recently downgrades its estimate for copper production to 800-870kt for next year
• The market also waking up to longer-term problems at Grasberg following the mud rush a while ago.
• Ivanhoe may also struggle to hold the line at 550kt at Kamoa-Kakula in the DRC.

Gold ($4,210/oz) consolidates higher as China’s PBOC adds for 13th straight month

• Gold is holding higher ground over $4,200/oz, having dipped sharply from $4,254/oz on Friday.
• US Treasury yields have rallied as the Fed enters a blackout period and labour market data holds steady.
• The dollar index rally has faded, returning to the sub-99 level, supporting metals.
• China’s PBoC added to its gold reserves for the 13th straight month, with its position rising by 30koz.
• China has increased holdings to 74.1moz, having been buying consistently since November 2024.
• The lower additions likely reflect some price sensitivity, with gold having rallied 60% over the past 12 months.

IG TV Commodity Corner (02/12/25):  https://www.youtube.com/live/XJDYYt31w_g?si=8lB4TP7a7pIGHrZ4&t=6672 

Economics

China – Exports reported strong growth in November beating expectations and driving YTD trade surplus to record >US$1tn.

• China’s leaders have worked hard to find, develop and expand overseas markets for China manufactured goods.
• The rise in exports is a result of adding value to export products while also expanding the range of markets being sold into.
• Imports climbed as well (+1.9%yoy), although, not as strongly as expected.
• Strong overseas demand has been helping China to compensate for slowing domestic growth and weak property market.
• Shipments to the US were down 29%yoy last month, despite nations agreeing a yearlong truce in October.
• Commentators report that despite a drop in exports to the US, a pickup in shipments to other destinations is indicative of trade rerouting.
• In contrast, exports to the EU were up ~15%yoy.
• Exports (%yoy, Nov / Oct / Est): 5.9 / -1.1 / 4.0
• Imports (%yoy, Nov / Oct / Est): 1.9 / 1.0 / 3.0
• We note, some of China’s new markets may not sustain such levels of consumption of Chinese goods after the trade push has passed and due to market saturation in certain areas.

Japan – 3Q GDP final reading confirmed an annualised 2.3%qoq drop amid a downward revision to business investment.

• That marks a downgrade from an initial estimate for a 1.8% drop and is the worst drop since 3Q23.
• The weak print would be used by the government to draw support for its fiscal easing programme.
• The central bank, on the other hand, is believed to be still determined to raise rates at the next meeting December 18-19.

Ukraine – President Zelenskyy is meeting with leaders of the UK, Germany and France at Downing Street later today.

• The meeting is hosted by PM Keir Starmer is organised amid concerns the US could force Kyiv to accept a pro-Russian settlement.
• President Trump earlier suggested Zelenskyy was holding up a deal and had not even “read” the latest proposal.

Currencies

US$1.1651/eur vs 1.1651/eur previous.Yen 155.44/$ vs 154.91/$. SAr 16.973/$ vs 16.933/$. $1.333/gbp vs $1.334/gbp. 0.664/aud vs 0.663/aud. CNY 7.071/$ vs 7.070/$.

Dollar Index 98.97 vs 98.94 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,209/oz vs US$4,218/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.8moz vs 97.8moz previous

Platinum US$1,657/oz vs US$1,662/oz previous

Palladium US$1,472/oz vs US$1,465/oz previous

Silver US$58.4/oz vs US$58.0/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,950/oz vs US$7,950/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$11,689/t vs US$11,647/t previous

Aluminium US$2,904/t vs US$2,914/t previous

Nickel US$14,900/t vs US$14,920/t previous

Zinc US$3,117/t vs US$3,118/t previous

Lead US$2,009/t vs US$2,018/t previous

Tin US$40,125/t vs US$40,055/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$63.8/bbl vs US$63.3/bbl previous

• The US Baker Hughes rig count rose by 5 to 549 units last week (-40 or 7% y/y), with oil rigs up 6 to 413 units (-69 y/y) and gas rigs down 1 to 129 units (+27 y/y), with Louisiana gaining 4 rigs to 46 units (+16 y/y) and New Mexico gaining 1 rig to 107 units (+5 y/y).
• The UK’s National Energy System Operator (NESO) has confirmed a new pipeline of deliverable, shovel-ready energy projects, which will be prioritised for connection to the electricity networks as part of the 283GW of generation and storage capacity and 99GW of transmission-connected demand that were selected today.

Natural Gas €27.7/MWh vs €27.2/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $76.3/lb vs $76.0/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$102.0/t vs US$103.2/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$454.8/t vs US$453.9/t

HCC FOB Australia US$205.0/t vs US$205.8/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$109.5/t vs US$107.8/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$52,220/t vs US$51,480/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$82,446/t vs US$83,099/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$12,869/t vs US$12,801/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,125/t vs US$1,125/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$763/mtu vs US$758/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$96/lb vs US$96/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.2/lb vs US$5.2/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.1/kg vs US$24.0/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$265/t vs US$265/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,110/t vs US$1,110/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$357.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

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Company news

Chalice Mining (CHN AU) A$1.7, Mkt Cap A$638m – Gonneville PFS highlights 23 year polymetallic operation

• Chalice reports PFS results from the Western Australian Gonneville Project.
• The Gonneville project expects to produce an average of 220kozpa 3E precious Metals, 7ktpa Ni, 8ktpa Cu and 0.7ktpa Co.
• The project will be an open pit operation, with processing including flotation and leaching.
• Copper flotation will produce a 20% Cu, 45-60g/t 3E concentrate, with nickel flotation producing an 8% Ni, 0.8% Co and 18-20g/t 3E concentrate.
• Leaching will produce a dore product exported to precious metal refineries.
• The project holds a maiden ore reserve of:
  • 260mt at 0.86g/t 3E, 0.16% Ni, 0.098% Cu, 0.0017% Co.
• The study envisages a two staged expansion programme, with Stage 1 from years 1-4 producing 151koz 3E, 3.2kt Ni, 5.2kt Cu, 0.3kt Co per annum, before ramping up to 238koz 3E, 7.7kt Ni, 8.7kt Cu, 0.7kt Co per annum.
• Sulphide processing will increase from 4mtpa to 12mtpa to 14mtpa with a LOM of 23 years.
• Pre-production CAPEX of A$820m and Stage 2 expansion CAPEX of $840m.
• Post-tax NPV8 of A$1bn using $1,300/oz Pd, $18,750/t Ni and $10,500/t Cu for an IRR of 21%.
• AISC of $370/oz 3E net of by-products using the base case pricing scenario.
• FID currently targeted for 1H28.

GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc (GROC LN) 2.50, Mkt cap 7m – Preparation for production of graphite concentrate from Amitsoq graphite mine and EIFO Loan drawdown

• Greenroc is preparing to generate graphite concentrate from collected bulk samples from the Amitsoq mine in Greenland.
• GreenRoc also report the drawdown of €848k from their previously agreed €5.2m EIFO secured loan facility for work on its Amitsoq graphite project in Greenland.
• The loan from EIFO ‘Export and Investment Fund of Denmark’ is to cover the next phase of costs relating to work on the Amitsoq Graphite Deposit and AMM ‘Active Anode Materials’ pilot plant.
• Work planned for Amitsoq:
  • Collection of bulk sample from Amitsoq (complete)
  • Gap analysis (list of required data) towards Prefeasibility Study ("PFS")
  • Preparations for Phase III drilling in 2026
  • EIA field work 2025, activities reporting
• Active Anode Materials Pilot Plant in Norway
  • Hydrofluoric acid ("HF")-free purification optimisation test work
  • Purchase of graphite mills
  • Warehouse for pilot plant, reconstruction and preparations for installation
• EIFO Loan Facility
• €5.2m loan facility to be drawn down in first two years
• 5-year maturity
• If GreenRoc raises £15m or more over 18 months or if there is a defined exit event then EIFO can elect to be repaid in cash or convert at an effective 20% discount.
• If GreenRoc's mkt cap is <£30m on conversion, it will be treated for the purposes of conversion as if it has a market capitalisation of £30m.
• EIFO may not, as a result of conversion, hold more than 10% of GreenRock shares.
• AMM processing plant PFS (11 July 2024):
  • NPV of US$621m
  • IRR 26.5%
  • Capex $340m
  • Opex $1,872/t
  • Production 80,000tpa of concentrate
  • Production 39,700tpa active anode material
  • Includes: onsite production of de-ionised water and construction of a plant for the production of nitrogen.
  • Price assumption: $1,100/t for C ≥ 94% concentrate feedstock into the AAM plant. Benchmark’s long terms forecast as of January 2024.
• Opex could reduce to ~US$1,662 using sodium hydroxide (NaOH) instead of hydrofluoric acid (HF) but would increase Capex cutting post-tax NPV8 to US$601m with an IRR of 23.7%.
• Note: PFS will be modified on the results of the pilot plant. The team are looking to upgrade the study to a DFS on the back of the results.

Conclusion: Management are working their way towards the production and marketing of graphite concentrate. Material will also be used for the future potential development of an Active Anode Material plant in Norway.

Koryx Copper (KRY CN) C$1.9, Mkt Cap C$184m – Exploration update from Zambia, with drilling due 2Q26

• Koryx, who hold the Haib project in Namibia, provide an update on their Zambian exploration licences.
• The Company hold an 80% option over the Luanshya West and Mpongwe projects covering 54km2 and 675km2 respectively.
• Luanshya West is targeting mineralisation along strike from the Chibuluma and Chifupu projects, hosted in Lower Roan rocks.
• The Company has completed soil sampling programmes, pitting and geophysical programmes.
• This has identified priority targets for further work.
• The Company has outlined several priority targets for drill testing in 2026, with a 3,000m programme planned.
• At Mpongwe, a compilation of historical data and drill core was compiled and re-logged.
• 5,000 soil samples have been collected with results due January 2026.
• Initial drilling may be conducted in 2Q26, alongside drilling at Luanshya.

Meteoric Resources (MEI AU) A$0.15, Mkt Cap A$383m – Environmental License update

• The Company updates on the progress of its Preliminary Environmental License application for the Caldeira REE Project, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
• The Company reports that the Preliminary Environmental License (LP) has been included on the State Council for Environmental Policy (COPAM) agenda for approval at the 19 December meeting.
• Approval would allow the Company to submit the Construction License (LI) application with minimal impact on the overall Project timeline.
• LI is key for FID and commencement of construction and was previously targeted for June 2026.
• Two year construction period to follow with Operating License (LO) secured and maiden supply targeted for 2028.

Rockfire Resources (ROCK LN) 0.21p, Mkt Cap £11.1m – Progress of drilling at Molaoi, Greece

• Rockfire Resources, which has encountered challenging drilling conditions in the first two holes of its current 30-hole drilling campaign at the Molaoi zinc exploration project in Greece, reports that the third hole (HMO-010) is progressing well.
• The hole, which is located “72m south of hole HMO-008, and 396m south of hole HMO-009” both of which found difficult drilling conditions, is currently at a depth of 140m and has intersected massive sulphide type mineralisation “at the predicted depths in accordance with the resource model”.
• These zones, which lie above the main target of the drilling below 200m depth, have shown the presence of zinc, silver and lead in pXRF analysis.
• The current phase of drilling aims to “increase the zinc/silver/lead resource confidence from Inferred to Indicated continues and drilling is expected to continue throughout the first half of 2026”.
• The current ‘Inferred’ resource estimate is 15.0 million tonnes @ 7.26% Zn, 1.75% Pb and 39.50g/t Ag and the current drilling is also expected to quantify the germanium content of what the company describes as Europe’s only germanium resource “and one of only two quoted germanium resources globally”.
• CEO, David Price said that although the first two holes in the current phase of drilling had met difficult ground conditions, “It should be kept in mind that the zinc resource is 2.2km long so far and there are still 28 holes to be drilled within this resource distance”.

Conclusion: After early setbacks in the current phase of resource drilling at Molaoi the third hole is reported to be progressing well and encountering the expected mineralisation at depths above the main target zone.

St George Mining (SGQ AU) A$0.1, Mkt Cap A$361m – Araxa drilling results

• The company reports drilling results from the ongoing infill and expansion programme at the Araxa REE/Nb Project, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
• Results from four diamond holes released today included:
• Infill
  • 115.65m @ 3.34% TREO and 0.34% Nb2O5 from surface in AXDD016 including:
    • 10m @ 6.39% TREO and 0.74% Nb2O5 from surface
  • 100.1m @ 3.96% TREO and 0.40% Nb2O5 from surface in AXDD012 including:
    • 14.35m @ 5.68% TREO and 0.63% Nb2O5 from 18m
    • 13.35m @ 7.07% TREO and 0.13% Nb2O5 from 74m
  • 79.7m @ 3.69% TREO and 0.40% Nb2O5 from surface in AXDD013 including:
    • 19.7m @ 6.45% TREO and 0.54% Nb2O5 from surface
• AXDD016 delivered the thickest intersection of high grade REE mineralisation from surface.
• Step out (80m to the West)
  • 38.75m @ 2.57% TREO and 0.46% Nb2O5 from surface in AXDD017 including:
    • 10.75m @ 4.06% TREO and 0.59% Nb2O5 from 28m
• A further 32 diamond drill holes are at the laboratory awaiting assay results.
• The project hosts
  • ~41mt @ 4.13% TREO (0.78% MREO) and 0.68% Nb2O5 in total resource (just over 20% M&I)
• The Araxa Project is located in the Barreiro carbonatite complex hosting CBBM open pit niobium operation, the world’s largest source of niobium.

Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) 0.02p Mkt Cap £1.8m – Extension of option to sell the Hazen pozzolan project, Nevada

• In July, Sunrise Resources reported that it had secured a 90-day option to sell its Hazen pozzolan project in Nevada to “a large US based company”.
• Today, the company announces that the option period has been extended by a further one month until 8th January 2026.
• The July announcement confirmed that the project, which is at a relatively early stage of exploration is “non-core for Sunrise Resources”.

Wia Gold* (WIA AU) A$0.43, Mkt Cap A$627m – Drilling highlights mineralised system remains open at depth in boost to underground development plans

• Namibian gold developer Wia Gold reports assay results from 8,118m of drilling at Kokoseb.
• Drilling is targeting additional ounces beyond the current open pit MRE, alongside some infill areas of the open pit.
• At the Central Zone, Wia has boosted confidence in the continuity of the high-grade plunging shoots, with assays yielding:
  • KDD104: 19m at 2.3g/t Au from 247m
  • KDD105: 24m at 1.9g/t Au from 287m (inc. 5m at 6g/t Au)
  • KDD107: 10m at 5.5g/t Au from 298m
  • KDD111: 7m at 5.1g/t Au from 344m
  • KDD115: 22m at 14.9g/t Au from 265m (drilled 60m up dip and north of hole KRC086 (37m @ 9.5g/t Au)
• Deep extensional drilling supports management’s view that the system remains open at depth:
  • KDD106: 11m at 4.5g/t Au from 604m
  • KDD109: 24m at 6.6g/t Au from 520m
• Hole KDD109 was drilled 200m from the previous hole KDD055 (26m at 7.9g/t Au) and 200m below the scoping study pit.
• Hole KDD107 was drilled 400m below the scoping study pit.
• Wia’s current scoping study envisages 146kozpa over 11 year mine life from a mineral inventory of 59mt at 0.97g/t Au for 1.83moz Au.
  • Post-tax NPV5 of $646m and IRR of 38% at $2,600/oz Au.
  • NPV5 of $1,269m and IRR of 60% at $3,450/oz.
• Timeline:
  • Mining Licence to be submitted to Ministry of Mines and Energy in October 2025
  • ESIA nearing completion, due for submission in 1Q26
  • DFS due 2H26
  • Maiden underground MRE due mid-2026
  • Exploitation permit award expected 1H26
  • Financing due 2H26

*An SP Angel Analyst holds shares in WIA Gold

Wishbone Gold (WSBN LN) 55.5p, Mkt Cap £20m – Exploration progress at Red Setter, WA

·        Wishbone Gold has provided a progress report on its exploration of the Red Setter prospect located ~20km southwest of the Telfer gold mine in WA.

·        The company confirms that it has completed 1,509m of reverse-circulation (RC) drilling in seven holes and 3,298.7m of core-drilling in six holes.

·        The final diamond core-hole of the pre-Christmas programme is underway targeted to reach a depth of 300m and “Three diamond drill holes have now been processed with assay results pending”.

·        As well as the drilling, “a new Mobile MT survey has been flown over the north-west extension to Red Setter, with results currently being processed”.

·        The company also explains that an application for a new 30km road from the Nifty copper mine, which would simplify the logistics of the exploration has been submitted “and allow a far simpler exploration drilling program in 2026”.

·        Director, Ed Mead, explained that “This year has provided many challenges in completing RC and Diamond drill holes to date, and this new access road will make a tangible improvement to our ability to execute our drill program in an efficient manner”.

·        Mr. Mead confirmed that drilling was expected to resume “when the summer wet season is over” and that the company expected to receive assay results from the drilling so far “over the next few months”.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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