SP Angel . Morning View . Monday 23.02.26

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Arctic Minerals (ARCT SW) – Geophysical survey results support drill targeting in Sweden

Arkle Resources* (ARK LN)  – Fully funded Phase 1 uranium exploration programme begins in Namibia

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN)  – Ewoyaa Mining Lease and a potential takeover update

Caledonia Mining  (CMCL LN) – Interim funding facility expected mid-2026

LunR Royalties* (LUNR CN) – Acquisition of silver stream over Fruta del Norte

Minerals260 (MI6 AU) – A$220m funding agreement with Franco-Nevada

New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN)  – Exploration Targets delivered over NWQ Project

West African Resources (WAF AU) – Kiaka update

Gold ($5,153/oz) rebounds on Trump tariffs and sustained US-Iran tensions

• Gold prices bounced over $5,150/oz this morning for the first time since late January.
• The move followed Trump’s widespread tariff rollout in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision.
• Gold is also enjoying a steady bid from safe haven demand as US-Iran tensions continue to mount.
• The two parties are set to meet on Thursday to discuss a potential deal over nuclear weapons.
• Gold’s strength comes despite the continued Lunar New Year break, reducing trading volumes for major retail markets in China.
• Russia reportedly sold 300koz of gold from its reserves in January as it continues to finance its war effort.

Copper ($12,980/t) edges higher as Codelco warns of lower long-term production from El Teniente

• Copper prices have climbed higher, towards the $13,000/t mark on the LME, supported by a wider metals rally.
• Codelco reported last week that production at El Teniente would average c.300ktpa through to the end of the decade. (Bloomberg)
• This is down from 356kt in 2024, with the lower output a result of the rockburst incident in July.
• As a result, Codelco is reducing output expectations form deeper sections of the underground operation.
• Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg are also recovering from major incidents in 2025, reducing output for the next few years.
• Copper markets are expected to be in deficit for 2026, before returning to surplus in 2027.
• However, further incidents at major operations are possible as new supply relies on more technically challenging operations.

VOX video:  The most extraordinary week in commodities I've ever witnessed

• Podcast:  The Vox Markets Podcast

IG TV – Commodity Markets Weekly: https://youtu.be/-YKK0NzMLZ0?si=i-83_jtBI8u5bM86

We are now in a new commodities cycle: on VOX: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a

• Podcast: The Vox Markets Podcast / Mining Matters: We are now in a new commodities cycle, says SP Angel's John Meyer

Worth reading - Mineral War: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction by Tomasz Nadrowski

• https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mineral-War-Chinas-Weapons-Destruction/dp/B0GHDYRLZK

Currencies

US$1.1809/eur vs 1.1760/eur previous. Yen 154.74/$ vs 155.46/$. SAr 15.981/$ vs 16.144/$. $1.351/gbp vs $1.345/gbp. 0.708/aud vs 0.705/aud. CNY 6.905/$ vs 6.909/$.

Dollar Index 97.55 vs 97.94 previous.

Economics

US – President Trump announced a new 15% global flat tariff set to come into force from Tuesday after the Supreme Court voted down previous trade restrictions.

• The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the administration exceeded its authority in imposing tariffs.
• Two Trump appointees voted against tariffs.
• President is using other ways to get trade restrictions implemented including Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 allowing tariffs implemented for a period of 150 days with a Congress required to get an extension after that.
• With both chambers’ majorities having voted against tariffs, the extension looks unlikely.
• S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.2% and 0.3%.
• VIX around the 20 mark on US/Iran tensions.
• 2y and 10y yields are slightly lower at 3.48% and 4.08%.

Underwhelming economic data came through on Friday with 4Q25 GDP and preliminary PMIs underperforming market estimates.

• The economy grew 1.4%qoq (annualised) in the last quarter with growth dragged down by a record-long government shutdown.
• Overall, the economy expanded 2.2% in 2025.
• A separate report confirmed high inflation expectations (3.4% 1y expectations, 3.3% 5-10y)
• GDP (%qoq Annualised, 4Q25 / 3Q25 / Est): 1.4 / 4.4 / 2.8
• Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (Feb / Jan / Est): 51.2 / 52.4 / 52.4
• Preliminary Services PMI (Feb / Jan / Est): 52.3 / 52.7 / 53.0
• Preliminary Composite PMI (Feb / Jan / Est): 52.3 / 53.0 / 53.1

EU – The European Parliament head of trade committee is planning to propose freezing the ratification of the EU/US trade deal until there is clarity on status of Trump trade policy.

Iran – Brent and VIX remain elevated as odds of a US/Iran military confrontation build up.

• Two sides are reported to resume talks Thursday in Geneva.
• There is a “good chance to have a diplomatic solution which is based on a win-win game and a solution is at our reach”, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi told CBS on Sunday.
• Among US demands are for Tehran to abandon uranium enrichment, limit the ballistic missiles reach and stop support of overseas military groups.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$5,134/oz vs US$5,022/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 100.2moz vs 100.1moz previous

Platinum US$2,157/oz vs US$2,115/oz previous

Palladium US$1,746/oz vs US$1,728/oz previous

Silver US$86.3/oz vs US$79.4/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 817.2moz vs 829.6moz previous

Rhodium US$11,175/oz vs US$10,900/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$12,924/t vs US$12,880/t previous

Aluminium US$3,095/t vs US$3,102/t previous

Nickel US$17,610/t vs US$17,307/t previous

Zinc US$3,367/t vs US$3,351/t previous

Lead US$1,959/t vs US$1,955/t previous

Tin US$47,045/t vs US$46,576/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$71.0/bbl vs US$71.2/bbl previous

Natural Gas €31.5/MWh vs €33.5/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $89.1/lb vs $88.8/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$95.8/t vs US$95.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$466.1/t vs US$466.1/t

HCC FOB Australia US$244.5/t vs US$247.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$120.5/t vs US$121.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$123,103/t vs US$123,103/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$19,479/t vs US$19,479/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,900/t vs US$1,900/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,648/mtu vs US$1,648/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$131/lb vs US$131/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.5/lb vs US$5.5/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$26.3/kg vs US$26.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$261/t vs US$261/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,959/t vs US$2,959/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,137/t vs US$1,137/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$372.5/t vs US$372.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Company News:

Arctic Minerals (ARCT SW) SEK8.3, Mkt Cap SEK383m – Geophysical survey results support drill targeting in Sweden

• Arctic Minerals provides an exploration update from its Swan Lake Project in Norrbotten, Sweden.
• The Company has completed gradient array IP and Pole-Dipole IP surveys in late 2025.
• This returned an IP anomaly coincident with previously identified magnetic low anomalies.
• Management suggests the potential identification of a porphyry-epithermal system.
• Previous work identified anomalies associated with copper and gold mineralised quartz vein systems.
• Management notes the geophysical results provide a ‘clearer understanding of the system’s structure and potential, along with strong technical support for where drilling should be carried out going forward.’

Arkle Resources* (ARK LN) 0.49p, Mkt Cap £7.6m – Fully funded Phase 1 uranium exploration programme begins in Namibia

• Arkle has provided an update following its recent uranium portfolio acquisition.
• Arkle announces today is its set to begin its funded exploration programme across several shallow prospects in Namibia.
• The acquisition secured four EPLs in the Erongo Region over 540km2.
• A 2025 exploration programme has outlined several uranium anomalies that will be the focus of further exploration.
• Phase 1 exploration is set to begin imminently and will include:
• Four lines of horizontal loop electromagnetic surveys across EPL 8995
• Airborne radiometric and magnetic survey of licences EPL 8995, EPL 8290 and EPL 8298
• Downhole logging of historical drill holes across several licences.
• 12,000 line-kms at 50m spacing airborne survey run by Xcalibur Smart Mapping for target generation
• Phase 2 exploration programme set to begin 2H26:
• Following up on targets generated from Phase 1
• Set to include detailed mapping, further sampling and a 4,000m RC drilling programme
• Initial mapping at EPL 7986
• Arkle suggests the potential to deliver a maiden MRE in 1H27, should 2026 drilling prove successful.
• In Ireland, Arkle notes Group Eleven is planning step-out drilling around the known resource at Stonepark and Carrickittle West.
• In Botswana, Arkle is looking to design an initial drilling programme to test brine aquifers across major targets.

Conclusion: This is an exciting time for Arkle, who are set to begin the Phase 1 exploration programme at their Namibian uranium portfolio. We see the acquisition of the four EPLs in Namibia as a transformational moment for Arkle and they are approaching exploration in a methodical and extensive manner. Phase 1 is intended to prioritise and delineate drill targets, in preparation for a 4,000m RC programme due to start in 2H26.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Arkle

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) 18p, Mkt Cap £145m – Ewoyaa Mining Lease and a potential takeover update

• The Company updates on the status of the Mining Lease ratification and a proposed acquisition.
• The Committee on Lands and Natural Resources in Ghana held a meeting on 12 February regarding the ratification of the Mining Lease.
• The Company is not aware of the outcome and has not received any formal confirmation of the timing for the Mining License ratification.
• On a potential takeover, the team reports it received a conditional and non-binding offer for 100% of the Company.
• The Board entered into exclusive discussions and provided access for due diligence by the potential offeror.
• Discussions relating to a potential takeover and exclusivity period are reported to have now ceased.
• In support of the Board decision not to continue takeover discussions, the team highlighted a well advanced stage of the Ewoyaa Lithium Project with the ratification offering a major de-risking milestone, extensive exploration portfolio, uncommitted SC tonnages available for offtakes and significantly improved lithium market sentiment.
• ASX trading in the stock resumed this morning following a suspension on 19 February.

Conclusion: Mining Lease ratification process continues with the special committee reported to have held a meeting earlier this month. The Board decided to terminate takeover discussions highlighting major rerating potential for the Ewoyaa Lithium Project as indicated by a series of near term milestones and strong lithium market outlook. Market attention now turns to the mining license ratification and funding/partnering discussions.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Atlantic Lithium

Caledonia Mining  (CMCL LN) 2,190p, Mkt Cap £417m – Interim funding facility expected mid-2026

• Caledonia provides an update on its funding progress as it seeks an interim funding facility of up to $150m.
• The funding facility is intended to support the development of the Bilboes gold project in Zimbabwe.
• Caledonia has appointed Stanbic Bank Zimbabwe (part of Standard Bank) and CBZ Bank as co-lead arrangers.
• Caledonia expects the funding facility to be in place by mid-2026.
• Bilboes Project:
• Reserves of 1.75moz at 2.26g/t Au
• 11 year LOM producing 1.55moz total
• Post-tax NPV8 at $3,648/oz of $1.2bn and IRR of 50.4%.
• CAPEX guided at $484m.

LunR Royalties* (LUNR CN) C$18.6, Mkt Cap C$1.31bn – Acquisition of silver stream over Fruta del Norte

• LunR Royalties, which recently spun out of NGEX, has agreed a silver stream acquisition with Lundin Gold.
• LunR has agreed to acquire a LOM silver stream over the Fruta del Norte mine in Ecuador.
• The Company will issue 50.5m new shares to Lundin Gold at the 20-day VWAP, valued c.$670m.
• LunR will purchase 100% of payable silver until the delivery of 12.2moz Ag.
• This will then dropdown to 50% of payable silver until 7.8moz have been delivered, before converting to 7.5% of payable silver for LOM.
• LunR will pay 10% of spot silver to the first dropdown, then increasing to 20% then 30% for LOM deliveries.
• Lundin Gold will distribute the LunR shares as a dividend-in-kind to shareholders.
• Fruta Del Norte holds 8.9moz Ag in reserves, 11.7moz in M&I MRE (inc. of reserves) and 5.1moz Ag in inferred MRE.
• The mine produced c.550koz Ag in 2025, 490koz Ag in 2024 and 510koz Ag in 2023.
• Lundin Gold is currently conducting a 100,000m drill programme in 2026 for near-mine exploration.
• LunR holds a 1.38% NSR Royalty on Los Helados and a 1% NSR on Lunahuasi.

*SP Angel analyst(s) hold shares in LunR Royalties

Minerals260 (MI6 AU) A$0.53, Mkt Cap A$1.1bn – A$220m funding agreement with Franco-Nevada

• Tim Goyder-led Minerals 260 has announced a funding agreement with Franco-Nevada.
• Franco-Nevada will pay A$220m to progress the Bullabulling Gold Project in Western Australia.
• The funding agreement is broken down between a stream and equity.
• Franco will pay A$170m to increase its total royalty over the project to 2.45% from 1% over certain tenements.
• Franco will also invest A$50m at 45c/share (6% premium to 10-day VWAP) to take a 4.9% interest in the Company.
• The funding agreement will support the completion of PFS and de-risk the ‘outlook for future Project financing.’
• Funds will procure long-lead items, commence early site works and begin DFS activities including the expansion of drilling.
• Stock up 25% today.

New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN) 1.08p, Mkt Cap £18m – Exploration Targets delivered over NWQ Project

• New Frontier Minerals has published updated JORC Exploration Targets at the NWQ Copper Project, Queensland.
• The Company has identified 14 priority prospects over the NWQ Project, which lies in the Mt Isa region.
• New Frontier has outlined JORC Exploration Targets across the 14 projects which shows a total range of:
• 11.8mt-57mt for between 50.4kt-473.6kt Cu.
• New Frontier is working on a revenue sharing opportunity to process Big One Ore at the Mt Kelly facility.
• The Big One deposit holds 2.1mt at 1.1% Cu for 21kt Cu.
• New Frontier is aiming to advance RC and diamond drilling campaigns to extend known mineralisation and upgrade the current MRE.
• New Frontier has applied for a mining lease for the Big One Deposit, which is being reviewed by the Queensland regulator.

*SP Angel acts as broker to New Frontier Minerals

West African Resources (WAF AU) A$3.5, Mkt Cap A$4bn – Kiaka update

• The Company responds to media reports regarding the Burkina Faso Government’s interest in acquiring an additional 25% stake in Kiaka Gold Mine.
• Reports follow published minutes of the meeting of the Council of Ministers of the Burkina Faso Government held last week.
• Minutest include discussions of a draft decree to authorise the government to acquire an additional stake.
• Discussions are ongoing with the government to respect interests of all parties, including existing shareholders and lenders.
• Operations are reported to continue unaffected at both Sanbrado and Kiaka.

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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