SP Angel . Morning View . Thursday 18.12.25

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Boss Energy (BOE AU) – Shares hit on Honeymoon Feasibility Study withdrawal

Glencore* (GLEN LN) – Adding to Antapaccay district with Quechua acquisition/

Ora Banda (OBM AU) – Promising drilling at Sand King

Oscillate* (SRVL LN) – Bridging loan raises $400k as hydrogen asset sale progresses

St George Mining (SGQ AU) – Drilling points to MRE expansion

Copper ($11,720/t) holds higher ground despite souring risk appetite as supply tightens into 2026

• Copper prices have risen to recent record highs, holding at $11,780/t.
• The metal has climbed 30% over the past 12 months on the back of supply disruptions from Grasberg, Kamoa Kakula, Chile and Peru.
• Copper demand has been supported by Chinese power infrastructure investment programmes.
• Copper peaked yesterday at $11,810/t.
• Forecasts currently suggest a deficit of between 300kt-500kt in 2026, before returning to surplus in 2027.
• We see a potential delay to the Cobre Panama restart as risking the return to surpluses in 2027.
• Ample copper inventories remain in the US after tariff concerns raised COMEX premiums, bringing supply out of Asia and Europe, lifting prices.

Tin (US$42,600/t) prices gain as mine and smelter closures in Indonesia

Rare Earths – China exports of REE products climbed 13%mom in November in a sign of an easing of critical materials shipments controls.

• ~7,000t of REE products were exported marking the third highest monthly total on record.
• YTD shipments are now down 2% only.

IG TV  Commodity Corner        (17/12/25):  https://www.youtube.com/live/Oot_FOKduLs?si=4XQOxoyDr1VWV8b_&t=4770 

(09/12/25):  https://www.youtube.com/live/E8IBOXDwYKs?si=Ie8TQjY0Xeuyg4j1&t=6417

Economics

Shadow Banks – hold 51% of global assets (FSB)

• The FSB ‘Financial Stability Board’ see the non-bank financial sector as holding close to $257tn of assets globally vs the Official banking sector at $76.3tn. (Asiafinancial)
• This includes money market funds, hedge funds, private credit providers, pension funds and insurers among others.
• The non-bank sector grew 9.4% yoy vs the official banking at 4.7% yoy
• Money is flowing away from regulated banking activity towards less-incumbered lenders and financial instruments causing growing concern at regulators who risk being left behind.

US – November inflation data is out later today.

• Core measure is expected to have held at 3.0% in November, unchanged from September (October missed due to shutdown, hence, no MOM data).
• CPI 3.1% est.
• Core SPI 3.0% est.

Amazon in talks to invest $10bn in developer of ChatGPT

• The deal might raise the valuation of OpenAI to > $500bn
• OpenAI plans to spend $38bn on capacity from Amazon Web Services
• Microsoft is also raising its stake to ~27%
• OpenAI is looking at a potential $1tn IPO (Reuters).
• Oracle is spending $300bn on building datacentres in Texas, New Mexico, Michigan and Wisconsin with OpenAI expected to spend a similar amount on using the sites.
• Nvidia is also investing in OpenAI which is buying its semiconductors
• OpenAI recently hired George Osborne for a role in government relations brokering national-level AI projects.

China - Housing construction falls to lowest level in 20 years

• Nationwide residential housing starts fell 19.9% yoy to end-November at 392m sqm with new home sales falling 8.1% to 658m sqm
• The starts-to-sales ratio fell to 59.5% as property developers started construction of < 60sqm for every 100sqm sold
• Policymakers are looking to use their Anti Involution policy to raise operating margins and wages across certain sectors and support new domestic consumption and home buying.

Authorities warn retail platforms on ‘lowest-price’ requirements

• Platforms will not be allowed to demand that sellers post their lowest prices under new draft antitrust guidelines. (SCMP)
• The move appears to be a step in their ‘Anti Involution’ policy drive to push towards greater profitability.
• The draft guidelines identifies eight potential violations though the setting of boundaries for platform conduct presents considerable complexity according to the deputy director of antitrust enforcement at the administration.
• The draft targets opaque algorithms which may sellers and consumers and looks to drive platforms towards “benevolent algorithms” with regular audits.

China said to have copied and built an advanced Dutch semiconductor lithography machine at secret lab in Shenzhen

• The machine has been built by a team of former engineers from ASML who have reverse-engineered an EUV ‘Extreme Ultraviolet’ lithography machine.(Asiafinanial)
• The EUV machine uses extreme ultraviolet light to etch microscopic circuits on silicon wafers as required by Nvidia’s most powerful semiconductors.
• China has set a target for producing semiconductors by 2028 on the machine though 2030 may be more realistic.
• It took ASML 18 years and huge investment to achieve its current, world-beating, technical capacity.
• ASML won an $845m judgment in 2019 against a former Chinese engineer accused of stealing trade secrets. The defendant filed for bankruptcy and continues to operate in Beijing with Chinese government support, according to court documents.
• The prototype is said to lags behind ASML due to a lack of advanced western optical systems.

Japan – Yen is stronger on rising expectations for the BOJ to raise rates at the meeting tomorrow.

• At 0.75%, the rate would mark the highest level in three decades.

Eurozone – The ECB to hold rates unchanged at 2.0% for a fourth meeting in a row.

UK – BoE expected to cut rates later today to 3.75%, the lowest in nearly three years.

• That would be the first cut since August after skipping a move in September and November.
• A drop in inflation released yesterday lent further support for the move.
• Another move is not expected before April 2026.

Preliminary PMI data for December

* AI is classed as a service in PMI data.

Currencies

US$1.1729/eur vs 1.1720/eur previous. Yen 155.84/$ vs 155.46/$. SAr 16.779/$ vs 16.767/$. $1.337/gbp vs $1.333/gbp. 0.661/aud vs         0.662/aud. CNY 7.042/$ vs 7.045/$.

Dollar Index 98.44 vs 98.58 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,326/oz vs US$4,315/oz previous

Gold ETFs 98.3moz vs 98.4moz previous

Platinum US$1,948/oz vs US$1,919/oz previous

Palladium US$1,694/oz vs US$1,626/oz previous

Silver US$66.2/oz vs US$65.8/oz previous

Rhodium US$8,025/oz vs US$7,950/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$11,725/t vs US$11,686/t previous

Aluminium US$2,894/t vs US$2,879/t previous

Nickel US$14,485/t vs US$14,365/t previous

Zinc US$3,055/t vs US$3,039/t previous

Lead US$1,954/t vs US$1,945/t previous

Tin US$42,600/t vs US$41,600/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$60.2/bbl vs US$59.6/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices were stable as the EIA estimated w/w US inventory draw of 1.3mb to crude, offset by builds of 4.8mb to gasoline and 1.7mb to distillate stocks, as refinery utilisation rose 0.3% to 94.8% on 13.84mb/d of domestic output.
• European energy prices were stable as EU natural gas storage levels fell 2.8% w/w to 68.8% full (vs 78% 5-Yr average), with aggregate inventory at 785TWh and Italian storage levels falling below 80% full (vs 81.8% 5-Yr average).
• In a surprise to the markets, BP announced that Murray Auchincloss has decided to step down with immediate effect from his position as CEO, to be replaced by Woodside’s current CEO Meg O’Neill, who will join on 1 April 2026.

Natural Gas €27.5/MWh vs €27.1/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $79.3/lb vs $78.3/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$104.8/t vs US$103.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$459.1/t vs US$458.8/t

HCC FOB Australia US$210.5/t vs US$211.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$106.0/t vs US$106.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$52,790/t vs US$52,790/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$81,937/t vs US$82,044/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$13,774/t vs US$13,485/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,150/t vs US$1,120/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$903/mtu vs US$883/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$98/lb vs US$98/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.3/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$259/t vs US$259/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$3,013/t vs US$3,013/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,115/t vs US$1,114/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$357.5/t vs US$357.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Ford cancels $6.5bn agreement with LG Energy Solution following plants to roll back its EV plans.

• That is equivalent to more than a third of LG’s total revenue for 2024.
• Ford is also terminating its US battery venture with Korea’s SKK Innvation.

BYD looking to sell 4.6m L3 autonomous vehicles this year

• BYD which has completed >150,000km of real-world L3 testing has received approval for from the MIIT ‘Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’ to build vehicles incorporating L3 self-driving technology.
• L2 and L2+ require drivers to keep their hands on the wheel at all times, L3 requires Drivers are still required to be alert to ensure that they can intervene under any circumstances.
• The international standards are set by SAE International..



Company news

Boss Energy (BOE AU) A$1.18, Mkt Cap A$488m – Shares hit on Honeymoon Feasibility Study withdrawal

• Uranium producer Boss Energy provides an update on their Honeymoon project.
• The Company has withdrawn the Enhanced Feasibility Study published in 2021 for Honeymoon.
• The move followed a review which showed a ‘material and significant deviation from the assumptions’ made in the study.
• Boss believes it has identified a ‘potential pathway forward’ for Honeymoon, based on an improved understanding of the resource, deposit characteristics and an alternative wellfield design.
• Boss is undertaking a wide-spaced wellfield design programme to incorporate into a Scoping Study due 2Q26 and new feasibility study due 3Q26.
• Boss is also looking to incorporate Gould’s Dam and Jason’s Deposit into the production profile, with an updated resource model due 1Q26.
• Boss holds A$212m of cash and assets as of 30th September, expected to fund the completion of the New Feasibility Study, wellfield design and potential early development of Gould’s Dam and Jason’s deposit.
• They expect to produce 1.6mlb U308 production in FY26 at $27-28/lb C1 and AISC of $41-45/lb.
• Boss expects 2027 production at similar levels, with AISC c.15% higher on increased SUSEX.

Glencore* (GLEN LN) 382p, Mkt Cap £45bn – Adding to Antapaccay district with Quechua acquisition

• Glencore is set to acquire the Quechua Project, near its 146ktpa Antapaccay operation.
• The project is intended to support the Antapaccay mine in Peru.
• Management notes that the ‘area is highly mineralised, offering volume upside and longevity.’
• Peru has seen a flurry of copper deals in recent weeks, with PE group Southern Peaks selling the Condestable mine and Fortescue buying Alta Copper.
• Glencore is aiming to double production capacity to 1.6mtpa from 2035.

*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Glencore

Ora Banda (OBM AU) A$1.5, Mkt Cap A$2.85bn – Promising drilling at Sand King

• Australian gold producer Ora Banda provides an exploration update from its Northern Corridor project.
• Ora Banda suggests drilling has shown the potential to increase their mining inventory at Sand King, outside the existing Lom.
• Company reported highlight intercepts from underground extension drilling of 6.7m at 39g/t Au, 7m at 10.7g/t Au and 10.5m at 6.2g/t Au.
• Drilling at the northern corridor returned highlight intercepts of 17m at 8.3g/t Au, 6m at 16.9g/t Au and 12m at 6.4g/t Au.
• Ora Banda is now expediting resource definition in the northern corridor, below the historical Palmerston pit.
• Management believes they are ‘in the early stages od unlocking what is potentially a large mineralised system’ at Sand King.
• The Company has committed a A$73m exploration budget for FY26.

Oscillate Plc (SRVL LN) 0.36p, Mkt Cap £1.53m – Bridging loan raises $400k as hydrogen asset sale progresses

• Oscillate, soon to be Serval Resources, has agreed a $400k bridging loan facilitated by major shareholders.
• The facility will be used to provide working capital and for general corporate purposes as Oscillate steps up to the AIM market.
• Oscillate expects to receive $400k following the sale of 80% of its hydrogen assets to Pulsar.
• Oscillate will receive $80k in Pulsar shares in five monthly tranches over a five-month period.
• The Loan Notes will have a coupon of 15% and a term of six months.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Oscillate/Servak

St George Mining (SGQ AU) A$0.09, Mkt Cap A$338m – Drilling points to MRE expansion

• The Company released drilling results from the ongoing programme at the Araxa REE/Niobium Project, Brazil.
• Results from further nine holes were received including the thickest intersection of high grade mineralisation at the Project:
  • 139.45m @ 4.05% TREO and 0.55% Nb₂O₅ from surface in AXDD004 including
    • 53.9m @ 5.44% TREO and 0.79% Nb₂O₅ from 9m
• Other selected results included
  • 80.15m @ 5.11% TREO and 0.76% Nb₂O₅ from surface in AXDD007 including
    • 43.9m @ 6.18% TREO and 1.05% Nb₂O₅ from 36.2m
  • 82.55m @ 3.90% TREO and 0.59% Nb₂O₅ from surface in AXDD014 including
    • 56.55m @ 4.97% TREO and 0.72% Nb₂O₅ from 26m
  • 81.45m @ 4.52% TREO and 0.56% Nb₂O₅ from surface in AXDD018 including
    • 4.55m @ 8.87% TREO and 0.78% Nb₂O₅ from 21.45m
• Result received include both infill and step out drilling.
• The Araxa REE/Nb Project is located adjacent to the world’s largest niobium producer CBBM.
• Current MRE stands at
  • 40.6mt at 4.13% TREO (0.78% MREO)
  • 41.2mt at 0.68% Nb2O5

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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