SP Angel . Morning View . Thursday 26.02.26

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Arkle Resources* (ARK LN)  – Phase 1 uranium exploration programme gets underway in Namibia

Aurelia Metals (AMI AU) – Financial results as focus on Federation ramp up

Aterian plc* (ATN LN) – EIA approval on Agdz prospect

Enegex Ltd* (ENX AU) – A$10.2m placing for Cote d’Ivoire gold exploration

GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc (GROC LN)  - Accepted as member of European Advanced Carbon and Graphite Materials Association

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU) – A recovery in TREO prices lifts earnings

Savanah Resources* (SAV LN)  – Project development progresses as lithium market tightens

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Tin-dominant zone identified at Redmoor

Copper ($13,350/t) pushes higher as Chinese downstream buyers return to market slowly

• Copper prices have resumed their rally following a period of stagnation over Lunar New Year holiday.
• SMM reports Chinese downstream copper processing businesses are returning to work, although trading activity is reportedly sluggish.
• Noticeably, Chinese analysts are highlighting sustained inventory build, with downstream users working through the buildup slowly.
• SMM reports copper cathode inventories are sitting at their highest seasonal level for the past six years.
• Copper has rallied 41% over the past 12 months, but has stagnated since January.
• Sustained weakness in the dollar is supporting copper, whilst the metal is also likely enjoying some speculative inflows on traders looking to play the data centre thematic.
• However, from a longer term perspective, continued supply disruptions have the potential to lift copper prices above the recent peak of $14,500/t.
• 2025 saw production hits from three of the world’s largest copper operations, Grasberg, El Teniente and Kamoa Kakula.
• There are several projects due to come online in the 2030s, including Lundin/BHP’s Vicuna which will ramp up to 500ktpa Cu over a 14 year period.
• However, sustained grade decline, permitting delays and increasingly challenging orebodies have boosted capital intensity and reduced the pipeline of new copper projects available for construction.
• Whilst rising inventories globally may cause a short-term pull-back in the copper rally, the long-term price outlook remains healthy.

Traders anticipation of NPC / CPPCC ‘Two Sessions’ strategic meeting in Beijing from 4-11 March.

• Chinese traders have returned early to buying base metals after their Lunar New Year break with more consumer buying seen overnight.
• The market is looking for formal approval of the 15th five-year plan as defined in the Fourth Plenum in October.
• Premier, Li Qiang is expected to report a softer 4.5-5% GDP target, though this perhaps realises that maintaining 5% growth for such a large scale economy is ever more challenging.
• Focus on technology and innovation in AI, semiconductor development, robotics, EVs, etc.
• Domestic demand: China continues to struggle to persuade its people to spend with retail sales falling in December to 0.9% yoy vs 1.3% previously.
  • Every time the authorities scrap incentives on EVs demand falls hard
• Infrastructure: continued development of grid networks, battery support and diversified (renewable) energy generation.
• Energy: recognition that China will need more steady-state nuclear power
  • China has 37 nuclear power reactors under construction with total power capacity of 42.9-43GW and plans to get to 120-150GW by 2030.
  • The plan is to replace coal-fired power stations but if EV and AI growth continues apace then China may be burning coal for some time to come
• Property: Ongoing depressed sales of new homes despite better mortgage deals and funding to complete projects
  • Remember Xi’s mantra: “property is for living in and not for speculation”  
• Shanghai is planning to step up efforts to expand development space, improve living standards and encourage new growth sectors.

Lithium – Lithium carbonate jumped to US$21,418/t from US$20,751/t overnight.

Spodumene prices rose slightly to US$1,905/t

Zimbabwe – The government banned unprocessed ores and lithium concentrates exports effective immediately yesterday.

• The ban was previously expected to come into effect in 2027 as part of a push for more downstream processing.
• Zimbabwe is the largest African lithium producer and is estimated to have shipped 1.5mt of concentrate last year.
• Some estimates suggest that ~19% of imported lithium concentrates in China was sourced from Zimbabwe.
• Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt running the Arcadia Lithium Mine completed construction of the $400m sulphate plant late last year with first production targeted for this year.
• The plant is expected to handle 400kt of concentrate per year.
• Sinomine running the nation’s largest lithium operation, Bikita Lithium Mine, is said to be working on a FS for the $500m lithium sulphate plant.
• Lithium names jumped on the news yesterday.

IG TV – Indaba interview: https://youtu.be/-YKK0NzMLZ0?si=i-83_jtBI8u5bM86

Commodity Markets Weekly: https://youtu.be/OEvjlwDdmQ8?si=Ej5UcV91750ErDPk

VOX video:  The most extraordinary week in commodities I've ever witnessed

New commodities cycle: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a

Worth reading - Mineral War: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction by Tomasz Nadrowski

• https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mineral-War-Chinas-Weapons-Destruction/dp/B0GHDYRLZK

Currencies

US$1.1803/eur vs 1.1795/eur previous. Yen 156.09/$ vs 156.10/$. SAr 15.876/$ vs 15.902/$. $1.353/gbp vs $1.352/gbp. 0.711/aud vs 0.710/aud.

CNY 6.840/$ vs 6.867/$. Dollar Index 97.68 vs 97.75 previous

Economics

US – Equity futures are little changed this morning following a two day rally and Nvidia results beat on Wednesday.

• Nvidia Corp produced yet another set of strong earnings

US/Iran – A third round of talks kicks in Geneva today.

• Earlier, President Trump gave Iran a deadline of March 1-6 to agree a deal or face a military consequences.

UK

• ENGIE, a French-based power utility, has signed an agreement to acquire 100% of UK Power Networks, which distributes 71TWh of electricity annually to 8.5m UK customers. ENGIE will pay an equity value of £10.5bn and EV of £15.8bn, which corresponds to a multiple of c.1.5x the estimated Regulated Asset Value as of end-March 2026 and an estimated 2027 EBITDA multiple of c.10x including the unregulated assets.

Precious metals:

Gold US$5,177/oz vs US$5,192/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 100.8moz vs 100.7moz previous

Platinum US$2,300/oz vs US$2,303/oz previous

Palladium US$1,799/oz vs US$1,821/oz previous

Silver US$87.0/oz vs US$90.9/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 833.9moz vs 825.9moz previous

Rhodium US$12,250/oz vs US$12,100/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,247/t vs US$13,285/t previous

Aluminium US$3,142/t vs US$3,124/t previous

Nickel US$17,835/t vs US$17,920/t previous

Zinc US$3,353/t vs US$3,413/t previous

Lead US$1,988/t vs US$1,971/t previous

Tin US$52,750/t vs US$52,870/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$71.1/bbl vs US$70.9/bbl previous

• Brent crude oil prices remain above $70/bbl due to the risk premium associated with the potential for US military action against Iran, even as the EIA estimated a huge w/w US inventory draw of 16mb to crude, slightly offset by a 1mb draw to gasoline and small gain to distillates stocks, with refinery utilisation rising 2.4% to 88.6% on 13.7mb/d of domestic output.

Natural Gas €30.9/MWh vs €30.8/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $87.8/lb vs $88.6/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$98.8/t vs US$98.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$468.6/t vs US$466.9/t

HCC FOB Australia US$246.0/t vs US$245.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$117.3/t vs US$117.3/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$129,386/t vs US$128,873/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$21,418/t vs US$20,751/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,905/t vs US$1,900/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,698/mtu vs US$1,648/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$161/lb vs US$151/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.5/lb vs US$5.5/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$27.8/kg vs US$27.5/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$264/t vs US$263/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,959/t vs US$2,959/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,148/t vs US$1,143/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs  US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$372.5/t vs US$372.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news



Company News:

Arkle Resources* (ARK LN) 0.56p, Mkt Cap £8.1m – Phase 1 uranium exploration programme gets underway in Namibia

• Arkle, who recently acquired a Namibian uranium portfolio, provide an update on exploration activities.
• Recent work has identified high-grade surface anomalies on the EPLs, with management seeing potential for alaskite-hosted deposits.
• The Company has begun its Phase 1 programme, focused on airborne and ground based geophysical surveys.
• The horizontal loop electromagnetic survey (HLEM) at EPL 8995 has been completed, aimed at testing potential paleochannels to determine depths.
• EPL 8995 and 8290 have returned uranium in calcrete and and alaskite, with the potential for alaskite mineralisation seen in the Trekkopje deposit to extend into Arkle’s tenements.
• A total of three HLEM lines are due for completion in early March.
• A larger, 12,000 line-km airborne survey is planned for target generation, intended to tighten line spacing from the 1970s government data sets.
• Arkle will use the airborne and HLEM surveys to prioritise areas for mapping and geochemical sampling.
• This is intended to generate drill targets for the 4,000m RC programme due to begin in 2H26.
• At EPL 7986, which lies adjacent to Rossing, work will start with a focused mapping and sampling programme to boost the geological understanding of the alaskite outcrop.
• EPL 7986 returned highlight values of 2,923ppm U3O8, with mineralisation located on the margins of the same domal structure as Rossing.

Conclusion: Arkle is approaching their newly acquired Namibian uranium portfolio with methodical exploration programmes. The plan is to conduct widespread geophysics programmes to refine target generation before focused mapping and sampling. This is expected to generate sufficient drill targets for a 4,000m RC drilling programme in 2H26. Arkle has set an ambitious target of delivering a maiden MRE in 1H27 and we look forward to seeing results from what should be a busy year in Namibia.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Arkle

Aurelia Metals (AMI AU) A$0.32, Mkt Cap A$525m – Financial results as focus on Federation ramp up

• Aurelia reports results for 2H25.
• The polymetallic miner reports revenue of A$207m for underlying EBITDA of A$67m.
• NPAT reported at A$25m, with EPS reported at 1.33cps.
• Cash flow from operating activities reported down13% vs prior period at A$46m.
• Company reports a cash balance of A$86m, ‘with operations funding all growth capital in 1HF26,
• Growth CAPEX guided at A$60-75m in FY26, with sustaining CAPEX guided at A$50-60m.
• Growth project focus includes transitioning the Federate Mine to commercial production, with mining rates reportedly ramping up.
• Great Cobar development reported on track.
• Great Cobar has a feasibility study outlining an eight year LOM with a mining inventory of 3.6mt at 2.3% Cu and 0.9g/t Au.
• Process plant expansion form 800ktpa to 1.1-1.2mtpa reported on track.
• Company reiterates guidance for FY26 at:
  • 35-45koz Au
  • 3-4kt Cu
  • 24-32kt Zn
  • 14-22kt Pb
• Management notes stronger grades from Federation have reinforced their confidence in the Ore Reserve grades.

Aterian plc* (ATN LN) 23,25p, Mkt Cap £4.3m – EIA approval on Agdz prospect

(Rwanda: Aterian holds an effective 100% stake in the Musasa Mining Licenses plus a 70% interest in Kinunga Mining Limited which holds the HCK licence alongside HCK Mining Company Limited which has a 30% interest.) (Botswana: Aterian also holds a 90% in Atlantis Metals which holds its licenses in Botswana). (Morocco: Aterian holds 100% on all licenses held in Morocco)

• Aterian plc report approval of it's recently commissioned EIA ‘Environmental Impact Assessment’ on the Agdz copper silver project in Morocco.
• EIA approval materially de-risks the prospect as the team moves to drilling its chosen targets.
• Previous drilling confirms shallow copper / silver mineralisation over a series of prospects within the 50.4 km² Agdz license area ~ 35 km east of Ouarzazate.
• Makarn (North) prospect
  • 1.24 % Cu with 101 g/t Ag over 3 m from 8 m (downhole)
• Makarn (South) prospect
  • 0.45 % Cu with 3 g/t Ag over 11 m from 32 m (downhole)
• Amzwaro prospect
  • 0.79 % Cu with 5 g/t Ag over 6 m from 6 m (downhole) -
• Location: Agdz is located close Managem’s Bouskour and Imiter mines.
  • Bouskour copper-silver mine M&I: 19mt grading 1.44 % Cu and 12 g/t Ag is just ~14km southwest
  • Imiter silver mine M&I: 192moz is 80km to the mortheast
• Infrastructure: The region is sparsely populated but still benefits from good roads and close proximity to the Noor solar power complex
• Funding: Management report the raising of £100,000 at 25p from existing shareholders to fund project advancement.
• Tantalum: Aterian recently reported a transformational strategic commercial and funding partnership on the sale, marketing, and funding of its Rwandan-origin tantalum concentrates with a 50/50 profit and loss share on international sales of tantalum concentrates.
• The deal gives Aterian direct exposure to international tantalum prices and long-term commercial relationships.

Conclusion:  The rapid approval of the EIA is a good sign for potential future development.

Management are now working towards drilling to better define the scale and future potential of the five known Agdz prospects

The team are integrating AI / machine learning geological modelling in partnership with Lithosquare to help target future exploration and drilling.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Aterian Plc

Enegex Ltd* (ENX AU) A$0.28, Mkt Cap A$73m – A$10.2m placing for Cote d’Ivoire gold exploration

• Cote d’Ivoire gold explorer Enegex has raised A$10.2m at A$0.23/share.
• Directors have subscribed for 494k shares on the same terms.
• Funds will boost Enegex’s cash balance to A$14.3m, post transaction costs.
• Funds will be used to expand exploration efforts in Cote d’Ivoire, with AC drilling currently underway and first pass RC drilling planned from April to June.
• The Company will also advance exploration programmes including geological mapping, stream sediment sampling, soil sampling, auger, AC, RC and diamond drilling across the large tenement portfolio.
• RC drilling will be focused on the Bonoubana Trend and the Koroba West prospect.

*SP Angel analyst(s) hold shares in Enegex

GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc (GROC LN) 3.22, Mkt cap 8.4m – Accepted as member of European Advanced Carbon and Graphite Materials Association

• GreenRoc reports it has been accepted as a member of the European Advanced Carbon and Graphite Materials Association.
• Management will also present at the Greenland Day and other EU events at the PDAC conference in Toronto.
• Progress on the development of cost-effective Active Anode Materials purification for the pilot plant in Norway.
• New purification instrumentation has been ordered and SGS Lakefield, have been selected to process a bulk graphite ore sample from Amitsoq;

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU) A$17, Mkt Cap A$17bn – A recovery in TREO prices lifts earnings

• Sales 6.1kt TREO (+6%) including 3.6kt NdPr
• Average realised price A$68.4/kg (+53%)
• Prices continued to climb post reporting period hitting US$111.5/kg NdPr (ex VAT) on Wednesday, up from US$74/kg in December.
• Revenue A$414m (+63%)
• EBITDA A$152m (+300%)
• PAT A$80m (1H25: A$6m)
• FCF -A$37m (1H25: -A$218m) following A$111m spent in capex.
• Closing cash balance A$1,031m, up from A$166m, following an A$932m equity raise to fund the ‘Towards 2030’ strategy.
• Operationally, the team completed Mt Weld expansion project with new flotation circuit running at 70% nameplate.
• Power supply to the Kalgoorlie Rare Earths Processing Facility (produces MREC that is treated at Lynas Malaysia) stabilised in December following disruptions recorded the previous month.
• Lynas is considering off-grid solutions for energy stability.
• Lynas Malaysia major maintenance of the Cracking and Leaching section completed in QDec25.
• First customer contracts signed for separated HREOs (DyTb) with 35t DyTb produced in 1H26.
• Plans to expand HREOs separation circuit at Lynas Malaysia with first production of Samarium due in QJun26.

Savanah Resources* (SAV LN) 5.1p, Mkt Cap £133m – Project development progresses as lithium market tightens

BUY – 18.5p

• The Company updates on the development progress at the 100% owned Barroso Lithium Project, Portugal.
• DFS and RECAPE related workstreams are ongoing for completion later in 2026.
• The revised bypass road design completed and submitted with Portugues authorities.
• The submission triggers the 150d (business) assessment to be followed by a 30d (business) public consultation.
• The national electricity distribution network operator approved the relocation plan for the overhead power line.
• Licensing process will begin shortly.
• Local stakeholder engagement continues with four community meetings held this month and the fifth carried today in Boticas.
• Temporary land access for completion of the FS related drilling is pending and expected to be secured in near term.
• Latest results from the regional exploration programme saw rock chip samples from the >600m long Carvalha da Bacora pegmatite target returning grades of up to 3.8% Li2O pointing to a potential to further grow the resource.
• Commercial discussions around uncommitted spodumene production continue.
• Lithium prices remain well supported by strong demand projections as well as news of supply disruptions (Zimbabwe yesterday announced a suspension of lithium concentrate exports).
• SC6 prices are seen trading in a $1,900-2,300/t range.

Conclusion: Savannah continues to de-risk the Barroso Lithium Project, with key infrastructure submissions completed, licensing advancing, stakeholder engagement ongoing and DFS/RECAPE targeted for completion later in 2026. High-grade exploration results support further resource upside, while commercial discussions progress against a supportive SC6 price environment of ~US$1,900–2,300/SC6 ( we used $1,500/SC5.5 FOB prices in our valuation). Latest news of Zimbabwe suspending lithium concentrate exports highlight supply risks in what is already believed a tight market helping prices, Barroso economics and project funding discussions.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Savannah Resources

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 3.3p, Mkt Cap £88m – Tin-dominant zone identified at Redmoor

• Strategic Minerals has provided an in-depth update on the tin potential from Redmoor reported in yesterday’s assay results.
• The Company suggests it has now discovered a new tin zone, named the ‘North Tin Zone’ identified in the recent drilling programme.
• Tin-dominant mineralisation is considered separate from the dominant Sheeted Vein System.
• Hole CRD041, reported yesterday intersected the zone with 4m at 0.25% Sn.
• However, historical intersects highlight the higher-grade tin potential of the North Tin Zone, including:
  • 1m at 5.13% Sn, 0.7m at 3.4% Sn and 0.71% Cu, 1m at 1.33% Sn and 1m at 2.56% Sn
• Management has developed a new geological model for the North Tin Zone, showing a laterally continuous mineralised structure.
• Strategic suggests the new tin zone may support additional MRE definition, adding a ‘meaningful’ non-SVS resource to bolster the upcoming SVS MRE.
• Next steps for the North Tin Zone include relogging and sampling of drillcore outside of the SVS to define the potential extent of the North Tin Zone.

Conclusion: Strategic is due to report an MRE for Redmoor in the coming weeks, with today’s update suggesting ample scope for further expansion with a tin-dominant zone. The zone was previously unidentified, given it lay outside the dominant SVS mineralised structure.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Strategic Minerals

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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