SP Angel . Morning View . Tuesday 09.12.25

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Almonty Industries (ALL US) – $112.5m to fund exploration and expansion programmes

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) – A$8m funding to progress Dokwe feasibility work

Aterian plc* (ATN LN) – AI-powered earn-in joint venture with Lithosquare SAS for advanced machine learning

Blencowe Resources (BRES LN) – Offtake interest for Oron Cross, Uganda

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – Metallurgical results show scope to upgrade higher value content of the Boland rare-earths project, South Australia

Dolly Varden Silver (DV CN) – Merger with Contango ORE

Gold Royalty Corp (GROY US) – Acquisition of Pedra Branca royalty for $70m

GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc (GROC LN) – Exploitation Licence for Amitsoq graphite mine in Greenland

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) – Tulu Kapi Gold Project funding update

Metals Exploration (MTL LN) – La India development ahead of schedule as plant capacity is uprated to provide for future growth

Pensana (PRE LN) – US$100m strategic investment

Tungsten West (TUN LN) – £4m bridging loan as Hemerdon moves towards resumption of production

Rio2 Limited* (RIO CN) –Acquisition of Condestable Mine and C$166m bought deal financing

Gold ($4,204/oz) bounces around key level as BIS warns of bubble territory

• Gold prices fell yesterday, sliding to $4,175/oz before recovering to the key $4,200/oz level.
• Gold has been consolidating since it’s sell-off from record highs in mid-October.
• ETF inflows have cooled as retail investors look for alternative momentum trades.
• The Bank for International Settlements warned on Monday that both US equities and gold are showing bubble signs, given the role retail has played in driving up prices.
• However, we see two of the primary drivers in gold’s rally as BRIC country Central Banks and Tether, who have both made consistent purchases over the past year.
• China added to their gold holdings for the 13th straight month, albeit with lower volumes than seen earlier this year.

Copper($11.518/t) pulls back as momentum fades following sharp rally

• Copper prices have retreated c.$200/t from recent record highs as traders reduce US Fed rate cut expectations and Chinese industrial data disappoints.
• The market has begun pricing in a ‘hawkish’ 25bp cut, with renewed concerns over a resurgence in inflation and stabilising labour data.
• Rates traders are expecting two cuts by the end of 2026, down from three a week ago.
• Metal continues to stay in the US following tariff concerns, creating artificial tightness in China and Southeast Asia.
• Copper has weakened alongside the wider base metals spectrum, with aluminium, zinc, lead and tin all weaker this morning.

IG TV Commodity Corner (09/12/25):  https://www.youtube.com/live/E8IBOXDwYKs?si=Ie8TQjY0Xeuyg4j1&t=6417

     (02/12/25):  https://www.youtube.com/live/XJDYYt31w_g?si=8lB4TP7a7pIGHrZ4&t=6672 

Economics

US – President Trump granted Nvidia permission to export H200 chips to China.

• Shipments would incur a US 25% export tariff.
• Exports would only be allowed to “approved customers” and that other chipmakers like Intel and AMD would also be allowed to ship.
• H2000 chips are not the latest and most advance Nvidia product but are at least a generation ahead of Chinese competition.
• China also does not produce enough.
• “We will protect National Security, create American Jobs, and keep America’s lead in AI,” Trump said in his post.
• “NVIDIA’s U.S. Customers are already moving forward with their incredible, highly advanced Blackwell chips, and soon, Rubin, neither of which are part of this deal,” he added.
• The move is seen as a step to lower trade tensions with one of the US largest trading partners following the decision to resume supply of REE magnets and critical materials to the US.

A two day FOMC meeting starts today with markets expecting a 25bp cut announcement tomorrow afternoon.

Japan – The BOJ Governor said the country weather the shock of US tariffs adding to speculation of a rate hike next week.

• Kazuo Ueda said inflation is trending closer to the 2% target.
• Markets are seeing rates rising by 25bp to 0.75% at the coming meeting 19 December marking their highest level in 30 years.
• 10y bond yields are trading at ~1.97%, their highest since mid-2000 after having nearly doubled over 2025.
• The yen was little changed at 156, not far off the lows hit December last year.

UK – Retail sales growth came in at 1.4%yoy, below the average for the past 12 months and the weakest pace since May.

• Sentiment was weighed down by budget announcement uncertainty.
• “Pre-budget jitters among shoppers meant the month of Black Friday did not deliver as strongly as retailers had hoped or the economy needed,” the British Retail Consortium read.

Ukraine – The meeting of President Zelenskiy with European counterparts failed to deliver a breakthrough.

• All parties agreed on continuing discussions regarding “a just and long lasting peace in Ukraine, which includes robust security guarantees”.

Currencies

US$1.1644/eur vs 1.1651/eur previous. Yen 156.36/$ vs 155.44/$. SAr 17.039/$ vs 16.973/$. $1.333/gbp vs $1.333/gbp. 0.664/aud vs 0.664/aud. CNY 7.070/$ vs 7.071/$.

Dollar Index 99.12 vs 98.97 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,187/oz vs US$4,209/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.9moz vs 97.8moz previous

Platinum US$1,650/oz vs US$1,657/oz previous

Palladium US$1,472/oz vs US$1,472/oz previous

Silver US$58.2/oz vs US$58.4/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,975/oz vs US$7,950/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$11,503/t vs US$11,689/t previous

Aluminium US$2,860/t vs US$2,904/t previous

Nickel US$14,830/t vs US$14,900/t previous

Zinc US$3,095/t vs US$3,117/t previous

Lead US$1,989/t vs US$2,009/t previous

Tin US$39,570/t vs US$40,125/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$62.4/bbl vs US$63.8/bbl previous

• Eni announced a 600bcf gas discovery at the Konta-1 exploration well in the Kutei Basin offshore East Kalimantan in Indonesia, with inferred potential flow rates of up to 80mmcf/d and additional upside that could lift volumes above 1Tcf.
• Galp has agreed with TotalEnergies to exchange a 40% participating interest in PEL83, where the Mopane discovery lies, for a 10% interest in PEL 56, home to the Venus discovery, and a 9.4% interest in PEL 91.

Natural Gas €27.2/MWh vs €27.7/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $76.3/lb vs $76.3/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$101.8/t vs US$102.0/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$455.0/t vs US$454.8/t

HCC FOB Australia US$204.7/t vs US$205.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$110.0/t vs US$109.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$52,220/t vs US$52,220/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$82,958/t vs US$82,446/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$12,872/t vs US$12,869/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,125/t vs US$1,125/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$763/mtu vs US$763/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$96/lb vs US$96/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.2/lb vs US$5.2/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.2/kg vs US$24.1/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$265/t vs US$265/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,110/t vs US$1,110/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$357.5/t vs US$357.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

European countries pushing to scrap 2035 ICE ban

• Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni has joined German chancellor Friderich Merz in urging the EU to scrap its planned 2035 ban on new petrol cars.
• In a letter co-signed by the leaders of Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary and Bulgaria, Meloni argues that an outright cut-off would risk devastating Europe’s car industry
• The letter calls for a softer deadline that would allow the continued sale of plug-in hybrids.

Stellantis and Bolt to collaborate on driverless ride-hailing service in Europe

• Automaker Stellantis and ride-hailing service Bolt will partner to roll out a driverless ride-hailing service in Europe.
• The companies plan to start with on-road trials in 2026, aiming for industrial production by 2029.
• Stellantis will supply purpose-built vehicles such as the eK0 van and STLA small vehicle platform, which are engineered for Level 4 autonomy.
• Bolt has a wide-reaching ride-hailing network in Europe, operating in over 50 countries with over 200m users.

Company news

Almonty Industries (ALL US) $11, Mkt Cap $2.6bn – $112.5m to fund exploration and expansion programmes

• Almonty has raised $112.5m in an upsized and underwritten placement at $6.25/share.
• Funds will be used to fund exploration and development work at Gentung Browns Lake Tungsten project.
• Funds will also be used for expansion work at Panesqueira and exploration work at Sangdong.
• Gentung Browns:
  • MRE: 7.53mt at 0.315% WO3
  • 90% tungsten recovery, 20-25% garnet recovery
  • Targeting production 2H26

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) 1. 58p, Mkt Cap £36m – A$8m funding to progress Dokwe feasibility work

• Ariana Resources reports that it has agreed A$8m equity funding to progress metallurgical work for the Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) for its Dokwe gold project in Zimbabwe.
• The company will issue an initial 26.7m CDIs priced at A$0.30 each to raise the A$8m to Xinhai Mining Services with a potential second tranche increasing Xinhai Mining’s investment to a total A$11m.
• Xinhai Mining, a part of Shandong Xinhai Mining Technology & Equipment, will also “provide technical services in relation to a Metallurgical Sampling and Testwork Programme for A$1 million and complete the Definitive Feasibility Study of Dokwe, under the management of Ariana, for up to A$2 million to be paid in CDIs at the Issue Price”.
• Managing Director, Dr. Kerim Sener, welcomed “the opportunity to build a lasting partnership capable of unlocking the value of Dokwe through the acceleration of the feasibility study programme with a view to progressing Dokwe to production as swiftly as possible”.
• He said that “Xinhai has demonstrated significant capacity to undertake large-scale projects, such as Dokwe, globally and has a substantial in-country presence in Zimbabwe, undertaking a number of projects. We look forward to developing our partnership with Xinhai in the years ahead and seeing Dokwe through to production”.
• Xinhai Mining’s Chairman, Mr. Yunlong Zhang, said that they “look forward to combining Xinhai's integrated EPC+M+O strengths with Ariana's regional expertise to accelerate Dokwe toward development … [and] … believe the project holds strong geological potential and aligns with our vision of responsible, technology-driven growth”.
• Illustrating Xinhai Mining’s local gold mining credentials, today’s announcement says that it is “currently completing its fully-owned gold processing plant in Gweru, in central Zimbabwe”.

Conclusion: Investment from Xinhai Mining brings both additional finance and technical expertise to the DFS and potential future development of the Dokwe gold project in Zimbabwe.

Aterian plc* (ATN LN) 32p, Mkt Cap £5.2m – AI-powered earn-in joint venture with Lithosquare SAS for advanced machine learning

(Rwanda: Aterian holds an effective 100% stake in the Musasa Mining Licenses plus a 70% interest in Kinunga Mining Limited which holds the HCK licence alongside HCK Mining Company Limited which has a 30% interest.) (Botswana: Aterian also holds a 90% in Atlantis Metals which holds its licenses in Botswana). (Morocco: Aterian holds 100% on all licenses held in Morocco)

• Aterian report the signing of a binding Heads of Terms for a strategic, AI-powered earn-in jv with Lithosquare SAS, a Paris-based specialist in rapid mineral discovery using advanced machine learning and geoscientific data analysis and modelling.
• Lithosquare will spend up to €1.4m on a fully funded AI-led programme across eight priority Aterian projects in Morocco and Botswana covering significant 2026 exploration spend for those countries
• In return, Lithosquare will earn a 20% project interest and 0.5% NSR ‘Net Smelter Return’ across on the jv Projects.
• Lithosquare may also earn up to 49.9% equity and 2.0% NSR, strictly tied to exploration success and value creation on up to eight JV Projects
• Investment: €500,000 for initial AI-driven target generation, geophysics, mapping and scout drilling to identify high-value copper and critical mineral targets rapidly
  • €900,000 maximum additional projected follow-on exploration drilling expenditure for intercept and milestone targeting to advance successful targets
• The jv covers exploration across 2,298 km2 of Kalahari Copper Belt in Botswana and over 600 km2 in the Anti-Atlas Mountains of Morocco for copper and silver
• Additional equity and NSR interests for Lithosquare tied to value catalysts such as drill intercepts, maiden JORC resource, and/or Preliminary Economic Assessment reports.

Conclusion:  The deal accelerates Aterian’s target generation and exploration programs with significant funding. AI will act as a fresh set of eyes on the multiple prospects in Morocco and Botswana and hopefully throw up some useful leads for potential discovery.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Aterian Plc

Blencowe Resources (BRES LN) 7.2p, Mkt Cap £30m – Offtake interest for Oron Cross, Uganda

• Blencowe Resources, which recently released results of its DFS ‘Definitive Feasibility Study’ for the Orom Cross graphite deposit in Uganda reports that it has secured an MoU for the supply of natural medium flake graphite concentrate to Yunasko, described as “an advanced technology company headquartered in London and Kyiv”.
• The non-binding agreement would see the supply of “an initial 500 tonnes per annum of purified medium flake graphite” for five years and today’s announcement says that “Yunasko's initial 500 tonnes per annum requirement is anticipated to increase as the commercial relationship matures”.
• “Pricing to be agreed under a formal binding agreement within 24 months”.
• Welcoming the MoU Executive Chairman, Cameron Pearce, said that “Our graphite is currently undergoing evaluation with a broad range of international end users, and we remain confident of additional offtake agreements following as these programmes progress”.
• He explained that “Purified material attracts significantly higher pricing than standard concentrates and these higher value customers provide both market credibility and a meaningful uplift on our weighted average selling price”.
• Yunasko’s Executive Chairman, Yurii Maletin explained that they envisage integrating “high-quality purified graphite from Orom-Cross … into Yunasko's next-generation energy storage systems … [and Yunasko looks forward to] … a long and productive relationship as Blencowe moves towards first production”.
• The recent Orom Cross DFS covers an initial 15 year mine life at a production rate of 20,000tpa of TGC concentrates from mid-2027 and envisages capital expenditure of US$40m, followed by US$120m for a second phase raising production 70ktpa of concentrates  plus 20,000tpa of USPG (uncoated spheronised purified graphite) will deliver an NPV10% of US$1.09bn and an IRR of 96%.

Conclusion: The recent DFS describing an initial 15-year project for the Orom Cross is attracting the interest of potential offtakers.

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 4.65p, Mkt Cap £42m – Metallurgical results show scope to upgrade higher value content of the Boland rare-earths project, South Australia

• Cobra Resources confirms that further test-work by Australia’s Nuclear Scientific Technology Organisation (ANSTO) has shown that cerium in its Boland ionic clay hosted rare earths project in South Australia “can be removed from the PLS at ambient temperature and pressure with minimal loss of the high-value magnet and heavy REEs (principally dysprosium and terbium)”.
• Today’s announcement explains that “removal of cerium all of the low-value and abundant cerium content … [of pregnant liquor from Boland simplifies] … REE separation for future customers, increasing product value and marketability”.
• The tests have shown that a “High-quality cerium carbonate is expected to be available as a separate by-product”.
• The test results will be incorporated in the flowsheet design “with the intention of producing a high-value Mixed Rare Earth Carbonate ("MREC"), exceptionally enriched in high-value magnet and heavy REEs”.

Conclusion: Testing confirms the ability to remove low value cerium from the Boland REE liquor early in the processing flowsheet providing a higher value product with enhanced heavy REE content.

Dolly Varden Silver (DV CN) C$6.1, Mkt Cap C$558m – Merger with Contango ORE

• Dolly Varden has announced a merger of equals with Contango Ore.
• Contango CEO Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse will take the helm as CEO, with Dolly Varden CEO becoming President.
• The pro forma entity will hold the producing Manh Choh gold mine in Alaska alongside several gold and silver projects in BC and Alaska.
• Manh Choh trucks ore to Kinross’ Fort Knox mine and milling complex in Alaska, producing 173koz over the first nine months of 2025.
• The Alaska Lucky Shot Mine is currently targeting MRE expansion to 400-500koz, with a DSO feasibility study underway and FID due 2027.
• The Johnson Tract project in Alaska holds 1.1moz AuEq in MRE, with a scoping study suggesting an NPV5 of $615m and IRR of 53% at $4,000/oz Au.
• The Kitsault Valley project in BC holds 35moz Ag and 0.2moz Au in indicated and 29.3moz Ag and 0.8moz Au in inferred.

Gold Royalty Corp (GROY US) $3.9, Mkt Cap $761m – Acquisition of Pedra Branca royalty for $70m

• Gold Royalty Corp has acquired a 25% gold NSR and 2% copper NSR over the Pedra Branca mine.
• The Company has acquired the royalty from Blackrock World Mining Trust for $70m in cash.
• BHP sold the mine in August to CoreX Holding BV.
• The mine was built by OZ Minerals, subsequently bought by BHP.
• The NSR covers the Pedra Branca West and Pedra Branca East, alongside the now depleted Antas North mine.
• Pedra Branca hit full production in 2022, with Oz Minerals starting production in 2019.
• 2019 Feasibility Study:
  • 1mtpa throughput over 8 year LOM
  • 18ktpa Cu and 11kozpa gold production
  • Reserves: 5mt at 2.1% Cu and 0.5g/t Au for 104kt Cu and 89koz Au
• BHP reported an MRE of 2.4mt at 1.68% Cu and 0.47g/t Au Measured and 12mt at 1.41% Cu and 0.4g/t Au indicated in 2025.
• Gold Royalty will fund the acquisition via a bought deal financing, which was upsized to c.$103.5m last night at $4/share.

GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc (GROC LN) 2.68, Mkt cap 7.5m – Exploitation Licence for Amitsoq graphite mine in Greenland

• GreenRoc report the granting of the Exploitation Licence for the Amitsoq graphite mine in Greenland.
• The Minister of Mineral Resources has signed a 30-year exploitation permit for graphite at Piiaaffik Amitsoq following approval by the Government of Greenland of the Amitsoq project Terms of Reference and associated White Paper.
• The process from application submission to issued exploitation licence has taken 15 months highlighting the effectiveness of the revised Mining Act.
• Greenland Graphite a/s has chosen that its project terms of reference should be submitted for public consultation only, without the project descriptions for EIA and SIA reports.
• The Exploitation Licence is the political approval of the mining project at Amitsoq.
• GreenRoc still need to submit an Impact Benefit Agreement and Closure Plan before construction and mining can begin.

Conclusion:  Granting of the exploitation license is a significant step towards mine production. The team still have further work to complete before reopening the mine for large-scale production in terms of production of graphite suitable for conversion into Anode Active Material in Norway.

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) 1.5p, Mkt Cap £138m – Tulu Kapi Gold Project funding update

BUY – 3.5p

• The Company updated on the progress of closing the remaining equity share of funding for the Tulu Kapi Gold Project, Ethiopia.
• The $340m project development to be funded with $240m debt (secured) and $100m equity ($60m remaining to be filled).
• Regarding the $60m part of the equity part the Company reports:
• $40m in the form of Equity Ranking Gold Streams term sheets signed ($20m drawdown agreed with a further $20m subject to due diligence);
• $43 in innovative Ethiopian Birr denominated preference shares (redeemable and non-convertible) with qualified investors ($23m progressed into detailed documentation);
• $50m in country-level investment by a specialist African fund remains in advance discussions;
• Other proposals for equity risk funding are being considered as well.
• The team targets funding completion by YE25.

Conclusion: The team is nearing to Tulu Kapi Gold Project funding completion allowing the project to advance into a development stage. We reiterate our view that KEFI offers an attractive re rating opportunity with a high grade gold project targeting maiden production in 2028 (~165kozpa at <$1,100/oz AISC over 7y LOM with an underground MRE expansion potential, 1.7moz 2.65g/t MRE). Refer to our recently released note for details on the project and our valuation (CLICK FOR PDF).

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper

Metals Exploration (MTL LN) 13.25p, Mkt Cap £381m – La India development ahead of schedule as plant capacity is uprated to provide for future growth

• Metals Exploration, which recently reported that exploration of its La India project in Nicaragua had identified mineral expansion opportunities for its initial North Pit, has now provided a progress report on the La India development.
• The company confirms that project development is ahead of schedule and had reached 24% completion by the end of November, ahead of the planned 20% completion at this stage.
• Today’s announcement also confirms that the La India processing plant is being expanded from the planned 1.4mtpa capacity to 1.8mtpa “in anticipation of future growth opportunities”.
• The plant expansion requires “a new elution circuit and gold room” increasing the total capex by US$5m to US$165m and “this revised CAPEX budget and is expected to remain fully funded from FY2026 free cash flow from the Runruno Philippine gold mine”.
• Mine pre-stripping “is on schedule, at approximately 17% complete … [and] … The run-of-mine ("ROM") pad is complete and the first ore has commenced stockpiling” with a reported 2,045t at an average grade of 1.14g/t gold “currently on the ROM pad”.
• “Construction of key non-process infrastructure is progressing ahead of schedule; with several camp accommodation buildings completed and operational”.
• A chart contained in today’s announcement projects first gold production from La India in December 2026.
• CEO, Darren Bowden described how the La India project is “advancing safely and quickly, underpinned by a strengthened local management team, improved community partnerships, and the dedication of our workforce and contractors”.
• He also said that “Our exploration programme is also progressing well, with drilling expanding into priority areas such as Cacao, and surface works at Phase 1 North identifying immediate opportunities to grow the resource base in the open pit”.

Conclusion: Metals Exploration’s development of La India is progressing ahead of schedule for initial gold production in Q4 2026.  The recently announced identification of additional resource expansion opportunities is being followed by a decision to upgrade the processing plant capacity from 1.4mtpa to 1.8mtpa at an additional cost of US$5m, to be funded by cashflow from the company’s Runruno mine in the Philippines.

Pensana (PRE LN) 97p, Mkt Cap £310m – US$100m strategic investment

• The Company secured US$100m strategic equity investment.
• The investor to be issued 95m new shares at ~80p.
• The issue price implies ~20% to the previous close (99p).
• The investor would also be issued 2.85m new shares for a total consideration of US$3.0m.
• Proceeds to be used for the Longonjo REE Project development, LOM extension drilling, HREOs circuit development.
• The Company is targeting the Nasdaq listing in 2026.
• The team highlights attractive timing for a REE Project development with the US banning the use of Chinese origin REE magnets/materials in US weapon systems from 2027 and 25% tariffs on REEE from China starting in 2026.
• Longonjo is targeted maiden production 2027.

Tungsten West (TUN LN) – 9.8p, Mkt cap £19m – £4m bridging loan as Hemerdon moves towards resumption of production

·        Tungsten West reports that existing investors have provided a £4m bridging loan facility as it progresses its discussions with both debt and equity providers for the “US$93 million (approximately £70 million) pre-production funding requirement”.

·        The company confirms that the £4m facility is included in the US$93m funding.

·        The facility will expedite the ordering of “long lead items and work packages for the recommencement of production at Hemerdon”.

·        Today’s announcement also confirms that Tungsten West has “conditionally agreed terms to allow for the full conversion of the Notes, which is a key condition to the conclusion of Project Financing”.

·        CEO, Jeff Court, explained that the Note conversion “is a watershed moment for the Company as it frees up our capital structure to conclude Project Financing and advance the re-start of operations at Hemerdon”.

·        He expressed thanks to “our investors and noteholders that have supported the Project to this advanced stage, and I look forward to welcoming our noteholders as new or more significant shareholders in the Company in the near future”.

·        Mr. Court said that “Finalising the Project Financing and accelerating the project schedule is our primary focus”.

·        In August, the company’s updated Feasibility Study for the project confirmed that, based on a price of US$400/mtu for the baseline ammonium paratungstate (APT) price and US$32,500/t tin (currently >US$700/mtu and ~US$37,000/t) a US$93m investment generates an after-tax NPV7.5% of US$190m and IRR of 29.3% from the production of an average of 332,000 metric tonne units (mtu) of tungsten trioxide and 462t of tin annually over an 11-year period of mining followed by an additional 4 years processing of stockpiled material.

·        Today’s announcement flags the recent strength in the APT price to “in excess of US$760/mtu” compared to the US$400/mtu used in the Study which “provides significantly improved project economics in addition to enabling an accelerated debt repayment schedule upon starting production”.

·        Mr. Court said that the improved APT price reflects tightness of supply in the tungsten market and “underlines the heightened need to bring our world class tungsten asset at Hemerdon back into production as quickly as possible”.

·        He said that “Hemerdon is perfectly positioned to re-start production in the short term and is well placed to supply western offtakers”.

·        Hemerdon is one of the western world’s larger tungsten deposits giving it a strategic significance as a non-Chinese source of tungsten supply in a market dominated by China and where the next two largest producers are Vietnam and Russia.

• We have previously described tungsten’s status as a ‘Critical Mineral’ in jurisdictions including the EU, UK, US, Australia, and Japan and we believe that resumption of production at one of the western world’s larger deposits should be welcomed by western-world consumers in a market dominated by China.

Conclusion: As a significant near-term source of western tungsten supply, Hemerdon is looking increasingly well placed to benefit from strong commodity prices.  The £4m bridging loan should help maintain the momentum towards a resumption of production as the company works towards securing equity and debt finance.

Rio2 Limited* (RIO CN) C$2.50, Mkt Cap C$1.1bn –Acquisition of Condestable Mine and C$166m bought deal financing

• Chilean gold developer Rio2 have agreed to acquire the Condestable Mine in Peru from Southern Peaks Mining.
• The Company will pay a total consideration of:
  • $80m in cash on closing
  • $65m aggregate principal amount of vendor debt financing
  • 21.9m Rio2 shares valued at $35m on closing
  • Deferred consideration of $37m payable between 2027 and 2030
• Condestable Mine:
  • Underground copper operation
  • 60-year operational history
  • The mine currently operates at 8.4ktpd, with Rio2 management seeing potential to expand to 12ktpd.
• The Company sees potential for open pit development to increase production, with the underground deposit remaining open at depth and along strike.
• Franco Nevada paid $165m for a stream over Condestable in 2021, securing 25% of gold and silver production over the LOM at 20% of spot gold and silver.
• Additionally, several exploration targets have been identified over the 45k Ha land package.
• Rio2 expects the mine to produce 27ktpa, with reserves over 10 years.
• Rio2 expects to produce 180kozpa AuEq, with a pathway to 380kozpa with the Fenix expansion plan.
• Rio2 sees Condestable generating $110m of annual EBITDA at consensus prices and $145m at spot prices over the next five years.
• Management expects cash flow to fund both the Fenix Gold and Condestable expansion, with average annual EBITDA of $330m.
• Rio2 also announces an upsizing of the C$140m bought deal financing to C$166m at C$2.22/share.
• Management expects the transaction to occur in January 2026.

Conclusion: Rio2’s acquisition of the Condestable mine marks a significant change move for the Company, who have been building the Fenix heap leach project in the Maricunga Belt, Chile. Management has a strong track record in Peru, building two heap leach projects before selling Rio Alto to Tahoe Resources in 2015. Management had previously guided their intentions to diversify their asset base, however the acquisition of an underground copper project may take the market by surprise.

*An SP Angel Analyst holds shares in Rio2

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

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Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

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SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return

SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange.