SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 15.04.26

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Andina Copper (ANDC CN)  – Step out drilling hits 232m at 0.68% Cu to northwest of Cobrasco

Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ LN)  – 1Q26 production update

Antofagasta (ANTO LN)  –Production and cost guidance intact with production expected to rise quarter-on quarter though the year

Apollo Minerals (AON AU) – Historical assays support high-grade tungsten targets at Veronique

Aterian plc* (ATN LN)  – Geophysics to supply data for AI targetting on Agdz copper-silver project in the Anti-Atlas region of Morocco

Metals One (MET1 LN)  – Revised offers for South African projects

Taseko Mines (TKO CN)  – 1Q26 production update

URU Metals* (URU LN)  – FDEM electromagnetics to enhance resolution of potential magmatic conduit at Zeb Nickel project

Yancoal (YAL AU) – Acquiring EMR’s stake in Kestrel mine for $1.85bn

Copper ($13,261/t) jumps as market sentiment improves and concerns mount over sulphuric acid shortages

• Copper rallied 2% yesterday jumping 4.4% over the past week erasing all losses since the Iran conflict began on 27th February.
• The metal has resumed its uptrend amid a wider risk-on rally, lifting the metals spectrum alongside equity markets.
• Widespread enthusiasm over a potential peace deal is engulfing markets as Iran hints of concessions and talks resume between the warring parties.
• Copper may also be enjoying speculative inflows as investors bet on increased ‘electrification’ to shield against future energy shocks.
• On the supply side, China copper smelters are reportedly looking to trim output after Beijing announced bans on sulphuric acid exports.
• The Middle East accounts for a third of global sulphur supply for the generation of acid and fertilizers, with Beijing looking to secure domestic supply via export bans.
• Chile is particularly vulnerable, with c.50% of China’s sulphuric acid supply exported to Chile for SX-EW production. (Benchmark)
• SX-EW production accounts for 17.2% of total refined copper globally, and concerns are mounting of acid shortages impacting output.
• Additionally, the DRC is heavily reliant on acid imports, with Reuters reporting major copper producers in the DRC suffering shortages and considering output cuts.

ii Mining Insight videos from Cape Town:

• Mining Insights: global trends in critical metals
• Rare earth metals: what investors should know
• Critical minerals: China and Trump
• Outlook for gold and silver price

IG TV commodities: https://youtu.be/oE6-k3hQDsM?si=sXBMY_UOZpvMP8EA

IG TV Oil&Gas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlMVGvbgE9o

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Currencies

US$1.1788/eur vs 1.1783/eur previous. Yen 158.96/$ vs 159.08/$. SAr 16.353/$ vs 16.343/$. $1.356/gbp vs $1.353/gbp. 0.714/aud vs         0.710/aud. CNY 6.819/$ vs 6.818/$.

Dollar Index 98.18 vs 98.22 previous.

Economics

IMF warns global GDP growth may fall to 2.5% in 2026 should prices stay around $100/bbl through the remainder of the year.

• GDP grew 3.4% last year.
• At the start of the year, IMF forecast oil prices to average $62 in 2026.
• Growth may come in at 3.1% assuming a short lived Iran war.
• In a worst case scenario of a protracted conflict and much higher oil prices leading to tighter financial conditions would see GDP estimates go down to 2.0%.
• "This would mean a close ​call for a global recession," the IMF said, adding that such weak growth has been registered only four time since 1980 including GFC in late 2000s and Covid pandemic in 2020.
• Base case GDP growth scenarios include:
• Global (2025/2026e/2027e) 3.4 / 3.1 / 3.2
• US 2.1 / 2.3 / 2.1
• China 5.0 / 4.4 / 4.0
• Eurozone 1.4 / 1.1 / 1.2
• UK 1.3 / 0.8 / 1.3

US – President Trump said US/Iran peace talks may resume in Islamabad over the next two days.

• The two week ceasefire ends on Wednesday 22 April.
• The US continued to accumulate its military presence in the region with the USS George H.W. Bush aircraft carrier is on course to join other two strike groups in coming days.
• The carrier is sailing round Africa avoiding transiting the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb giving the risk from potential Houthis attacks.

China – GDP growth of 4.8% expected in Q1 (Caixin)

• The Caixin poll indicates potential growth of 0.3% above Q4 and range of 4.5% - 5.2% for Q1 GDP
• The Iran conflict will likely reduce expectations for Q2
• CNY 100bn (US$14bn) “100 billion yuan in fiscal funds can support trillion-yuan-level credit” according to Lan Fo’an, China’s Finance Minister.
• New loans for service businesses and personal consumption rose 7% yoy to CNY 5.1tn in January and February driven by business loans to eight key service industries.
• New loans for small and micro enterprises and equipment upgrades, rose 20% yoy to CNY 198.8bn supporting >CNY 280bn of investment.
• Household loans fell CNY 194.2bn with short-term loans, mainly consumer credit, down CNY 359.6bn as consumers remain cautious.

Iran – US forces have completely halted all seaborne trade in and out of Iran including the blocking of Chinese tankers.

• Around 90% of the Iranian economy is thought to be dependent on seaborne trade, mainly oil.

Iran is seen digging out missile launchers from buried tunnels during the ceasefire

• According to CNN, US intelligence reckons around half of Iran’s missile launchers remain intact though many are likely to have been buried in airstrikes.
• Iran secretly acquired the Chinese-built TEE-01B spy satellite in late 2024 through the IRGC Aerospace Force which it used to monitor US military bases across the Middle East.

Car bomb exploded on Imam Khomeini Street in Tehran.

• While there were no casualties reported, the bomb may indicate potential ant-IRGC forces at work in Iran.

Israel and Lebanon held discussions in Washington yesterday over the cross-border conflict.

• Constructive but early-stage talks do not seem to have resulted in a deal/ceasefire with both sides agreeing to continue the dialogue.
• Israel demands Lebanon disarm Hezbollah.
• Hezbollah said it will not abide by any arrangement made by Israeli and Lebanese governments.
• Earlier, Iran said that any peace deal with the US should also include Israel stopping military operation against Hezbollah.

IDF continue to eliminate Hamas terrorists tunnel and bomb making networks

• IDF also locating weapons and launchers in Lebanon including firearms, explosive devices, grenades, ammunition, and anti-tank missiles.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,811/oz vs US$4,773/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 98.7moz vs 98.6moz previous

Platinum US$2,110/oz vs US$2,090/oz previous

Palladium US$1,591/oz vs US$1,591/oz previous

Silver US$79.3/oz vs US$77.5/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 799.9moz vs 799.6moz previous

Rhodium US$9,950/oz vs US$9,950/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,300/t vs US$13,167/t previous

Aluminium US$3,573/t vs US$3,624/t previous

Nickel US$18,325/t vs US$17,915/t previous

Zinc US$3,360/t vs US$3,355/t previous

Lead US$1,945/t vs US$1,936/t previous

Tin US$49,895/t vs US$48,775/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$95.2/bbl vs US$98.3/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices fell on increasing market sentiment for another round of negotiations between the US and Iran, as the API estimated US inventory w/w builds of 6.1mb to crude oil (-1.3m expected) and 0.6mb to gasoline, offset by a draw of 3.4mb to distillate stocks and a 1.7mb inventory decline at Cushing.
• European energy prices also edged lower on hopes for a resolution, as France's average nuclear generation fell 4% w/w to 70% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity following an increase in March’s output by 2.6% y/y to 33.1TWh.

Natural Gas €42.7/MWh vs €45.5/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $85.5/lb vs $85.4/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$104.5/t vs US$103.5/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$471.5/t vs US$471.7/t

HCC FOB Australia US$231.5/t vs US$230.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$129.0/t vs US$133.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$111,828/t vs US$111,253/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$23,026/t vs US$22,588/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,140/t vs US$2,080/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$2,443/mtu vs US$2,443/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$228/lb vs US$233/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.8/lb vs US$5.8/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.8/kg vs US$28.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$253/t vs US$253/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,759/t vs US$2,759/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,151/t vs US$1,151/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$397.5/t vs US$397.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

Record EV sales in Europe in March driven by surging petrol prices

• High petrol prices and renewed subsidy schemes across Europe has driven car buyers to EVs with Europe seeing record sales for March.
• Benchmark Mineral Intelligence reports that EV sales in Europe for March surpassed 500,000 for the first time, up 72% mom and 37% yoy.
• The UK delivered a record month, with 86,120 new EV registrations, up 31% yoy.
  • The best selling car in the UK in March was the Jaecoo 7, a model made by Jaecoo who are a subsidiary of Chinese automaker Chery.
  • The Jaecoo 7 starts at just over £30,000, significantly less than competing legacy automaker's EVs.
  • Chinese brands now make up 15% of the UK's new car market.
• Even with record sales, EVs made up 22.6% of the UK market, still over 10% down on the government's 33% 2026 target.

BYD temporarily removed from Brazil labour blacklist

• A Brazilian court has temporarily removed BYD from the forced labour blacklist, ruling the workers in question were not directly employed by the automaker.
• BYD had been added to the blacklist following a 2024 audit that found workers, hired by a contractor, had contracts in which they had to ​hand over their passports, let most of their wages be sent directly to ‌China, ⁠and pay an almost $900 deposit that they could only get back after six months' work.
• At the time, authorities said BYD was ultimately responsible for the worker's conditions.

Company News:

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Andina Copper (ANDC CN) C$0.87, Mkt Cap C$234m – Step out drilling hits 232m at 0.68% Cu to northwest of Cobrasco

• Colombian copper explorer Andina reports further assays from their Cobrasco Project in Colombia.
• Hole CDH006 was drilled to test the northwest extension of the mineralised system, with six additional holes planned at the zone.
• The hole confirms continuity of the Cobrasco Central Cu-Mo system to the northwest, yielding:
  • 486m at 0.42% Cu, 51ppm Mo from 38m (inc. 232m at 0.68% Cu, 75ppm Mo from 38m)
• Assays are pending from two step-out holes drilled form the same platform aimed to extend mineralisation to the north and northeast.
• Management notes the mineralised footprint now covers 950m x 525m with depths to c.600m.
• Focus is currently on systematic scout drilling to define the limits of mineralisation at Cobrasco, which currently remains open in all directions.
• A second drill rig is being mobilised to site.

Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ LN) 248p, Mkt Cap £284m – 1Q26 production update

• The Company reports1Q26 production results at Gedabek and Demirli production complexes, Azerbaijan.
• Production:
  • 3.7kt copper (1Q25: 0.5kt) – 2.2kt Demirli and 1.5kt Gedabek
  • 6.1koz gold (1Q25: 6.0koz) – 4.8koz in dore and 1.2koz in concentrate Gedabek
• Gilar underground mine delivered 187kt at 1.35g/t gold and 1.48% copper
• Demirli plant treated 648kt at 0.44% producing 2.2kt contained in 11.9kt concentrate (~19% Cu); implying ~78% plant flotation recoveries.
• Sales:
  • 4.1koz bullion sales at $4,728/oz realised price (1Q25: 4.8koz at $2,843/oz)
  • 18.6kt copper concentrate with a $45.6m value – 10.7kt / $21.4m Demirli and 7.9kt / $24.2m Gedabek
• Closing cash balance $37.2m (Dec25: $30.2m) and $30.8m in unsold gold dore and copper concentrate inventory as of 1Q26.
• Debt outstanding reduced to $19.5m (Dec25: $27.9m).

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) 3,976p, Mkt Cap £38.2bn –Production and cost guidance intact with production expected to rise quarter-on quarter though the year

• Antofagasta reports Q1 copper production of 143kt at a net cash cost of US$1.08/lb (Q1 2025 - ~155kt at US$1.54/lb)
• The reduction in output reflects “lower processing rates, and lower copper grades in line with the mine plan” while the lower costs are “driven by higher by-product credits”.
• Guidance for 2026 remains intact in the range 650-700kt of copper output with cost guidance also unchanged at between US$1.15-1.35/lb net of by-product credits “assuming fuel prices return to levels seen in January 2026 during Q2 2026”.
• Capital cost guidance for the year, US$3.4bn, also remains unchanged.
• The Los Pelambres mine contributed 66.3kt of the Group’s copper production, along with ~12,000oz of gold and 2,300t of molybdenum at a net cash cost of US$0.72/lb (Q1 2025 ~70kt of copper, ~12,000oz of gold and 2,300t of molybdenum at a net cost of US$1.36/lb).
• The mine’s lower copper output was the result of “lower throughput due to plant downtime and lower grades during the period … [but the company explains that] … following the completion of major maintenance that is scheduled to take place during Q2 2026, quarterly production is expected to increase sequentially throughout the remainder of the year”.
• Net cash costs at Los Pelambres benefitted from “stronger realised pricing for both gold and molybdenum”.
• Los Pelambres’ “Copper sales during Q1 2026 were 65,200 tonnes, broadly matching the level of production during the period”.
• At Centinela, overall copper production amounted to ~49kt at a net cash cost of US$0.34/lb (Q1 2025 - ~56kt at a net cash cost of US$1.18/lb.
• Net cash costs at Centinela benefited from the production of 34,500oz of gold (Q1-2025 31,300oz ) and 700t of molybdenum (Q1 2025 800t) and the benefit of “higher realised pricing”.
• Approximately 73% (35,700t) of Centinela’s copper output came in concentrate form with the balance (13,000t) as cathode “representing a result 34% lower year-on-year, following a reduction in copper grades and recoveries”.
• Compared to the preceding (Dec 2025) quarter, Centinel’s copper cathode production “declined by 9% as a result of a build-up of leach pad inventories, offset in part by an increase in ore processing rates and higher copper grades”.
• Antucoya produced ~20kt of copper during the quarter at a cash cost of US$3.03/lb (Q1 2025 – 20kt at US$2.47/lb).
• As a copper-only operation, Antucoya is unable to benefit from by-product credits with the higher costs attributed to “unit costs for key consumables, such as diesel and sulphuric acid, and appreciation of the Chilean peso, offset by the settlement of two three‑year labour agreements in the prior period”.
• Zaldivar produced 8,300t of copper during the quarter at a cash cost of US$3.61/lb (Q1 2025 – 9,000t at a cost of US$3.09/lb).
• The company explains that “Planned maintenance activities … [at Zaldivar] … in Q1 2026, which were previously deferred pending issuance of the enabling environmental permit for the life‑of‑mine extension (granted in May 2025), resulted in lower processing rates during the period … [but that this] … was partially offset by an increase in copper grades and recoveries”.
• CEO, Iván Arriagada, welcomed the strong cost performance, particularly at Los Pelambres and Centinela and said that “As we move through the year, we expect copper production to increase quarter‑on‑quarter, supported by higher ore processing rates and improving grades at Los Pelambres, in line with the mine plan”.
• He confirmed that Antofagasta’s “key growth projects continue to advance in line with expectations … [with] … Pre‑commissioning activities … now underway at the Centinela Second Concentrator Project, while progress across the Los Pelambres Growth Enabling Projects continues to strengthen the operational platform for future production growth, as we look to increase our copper production by 30%”.
• Mr. Arriagada expressed confidence that the “copper price remains constructive in 2026, and the medium‑term fundamentals for copper are compelling, underpinned by structural demand drivers and constrained supply”.

Conclusion: Q1 copper costs benefitted from by-product credits. Copper production is expected to increase quarter on quarter through 2026 with previously issued annual production, cost and capital expenditure guidance maintained.

Apollo Minerals (AON AU) A$0.07, Mkt Cap A$91m – Historical assays support high-grade tungsten targets at Veronique

• Apollo Minerals, who are developing the Couflens Tungsten Project in France, report historic drilling data results.
• The Couflens Project holds the historical Salau mine, which mined an average of 2.5% WO3 in its final year of operation.
• The mine was operated between 1971 and 1986, producing 930kt ore at an average grade of 1.5% WO3 with 24km of underground development over seven levels.
• Couflens, one of the highest grade historic tungsten mines globally, sits in the Pyrenees and covers 42km2
• Apollo has focused on reviewing historical core from the unmined Veronique Zone and has been reviewing a 950 diamond holes and 2,700 underground face samples.
• Highlight intercepts from the historical review of the Veronique Zone include:
  • 20m at 1.4% WO3
  • 12.6m at 1.6% WO3
  • 9.2m at 2.1% WO3
  • 9.1m at 2% WO3
  • 5.1m at 3% WO3
• Importantly, Apollo notes that several high-grade targets have been identified around the Veronique Zone, both down dip and along trend.
• Apollo has also identified several drill holes with visible tungsten mineralisation that have yet to be assayed, with management seeing ‘significant potential in these unsampled zones to contain further mineralisation.’
• Apollo is also set to validate drilling information at several other zones within the historic Salau mine, including the Christine, Quer de L’Aigle and Bois d’Anglade zones, two of which were not mined.
• The Company also sees good prospectivity within wider surrounding areas of the known mined zones, noting previous mining targeted tungsten mineralisation >1% WO3.
• Additionally, Apollo highlights strong gold credit potential, with assays from the lower section of Veronique showing 8.5m at 3.4g/t Au and 2% WO3 in hole SN481, associated with hydrothermal fluids.

Conclusion: Apollo has secured the high-grade, historic tungsten operation Couflens. The Company’s focus is on identifying unmined zones of mineralisation from historical data as it advances Couflens towards Phase 1 drilling. Veronique assays show high-grade results, up to 3% WO3 over good widths. Additionally, the gold potential is yet to be fully tested and may further boost the Project’s economic potential. We look forward to updates on permitting progress as the Company looks to begin drilling at the Project.

Aterian plc* (ATN LN) 31p, Mkt Cap £5.5m – Geophysics to supply data for AI targetting on Agdz copper-silver project in the Anti-Atlas region of Morocco

(Aterian holds 100% of Agdz Copper-Silver Project in Morocco)

• Aterian report reports the start of a ground-based magnetic geophysics survey at Agdz in Morocco.
• The survey is targeting fault-controlled copper–silver bearing breccias identified in recent fieldwork with the geophysics covering 111 line km over 11.20 km2.
  • Mineralisation traced over up to 0.9 km strike, with potential for further extension.
  • Following up on historic and recent assays, including 3.47 % Cu with 136 g/t Ag and 1.34 % Cu with 31 g/t Ag.
• The data generated should support and enhance Lithosquare's AI targeting work which will integrate multiple datasets to help target generation.
• The team will then run an IP ‘Induced Polarisation’ / resistivity survey over the more interesting areas for further AI data integration to close in on the priority targets for drilling.
• Agdz is within the Anti-Atlas belt which is well-established for copper and silver mining and 14 km southwest of the Bouskour copper–silver mine.

Conclusion: Aterian are working in an area which has a multitude of existing small-scale mines and new opportunities. We are encouraged that the use of AI to collate, integrate and process the data being collected will help to better refine targets for potential discovery.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Aterian Plc

Metals One (MET1 LN) 1.6p, Mkt Cap £20.6m – Revised offers for South African projects

• Metals One confirms that it’s 30%-owned Lions Bay Resources (LBR) has submitted revised offers to the Business Rescue Practitioner in South Africa.
• The first of two submissions offers ~US$17m (Rand 279m) “for the assets of Barbrook Mines”.
• A second offer for a nominal R1 for the assets of the “Lily Mine and associated deposits totalling 2.3Moz of gold resource” held by Makonjwaan Imperial Mining (MIMCO).
• The crown pillar at the Lily mine failed in 2016 resulting in the then owner, Vantage Goldfields being forced into the Business Rescue process.
• “As part of the Barbrook offer, upon approval by creditors, LBR has agreed to pay the full salary claims of the former employees of MIMCO as well as Barbrook”.
• “Metals One owns 30% of LBR with the option to increase its ownership to 49.9%”.
• “Today’s announcement explains that “LBR is considering confidential offers for project level financing for the balance of funding required to complete the Barbrook and MIMCO acquisitions alongside additional initial mine startup capital”.
• It also explains that the “revised offers remain subject to the agreement of creditors at the creditors meeting expected to be held tomorrow as well as LBR securing the funding necessary to settle the minimum US$7.0 million required should the offers be approved by creditors”.

Taseko Mines (TKO CN) C$10.7, Mkt Cap C$3.9bn – 1Q26 production update

• The Company released 1Q26 production results for recently commissioned Florence Copper (AZ) in situ leaching operation and Gibraltar Cu/Mo (BC) open pit operation.
• At Florence, SX/EW plant commissioned mid-February and first copper cathodes harvested end February.
• 1Q26 production 1.5mlbs (~0.7kt) of copper cathode in just over a month.
• Focus is on ramping up production with new wells being integrated into the system.
• Wellfield expansion ongoing with four drills in operation and a fifth to start shortly.
• Production in line with expectations so far.
• At Gibraltar, 30.0mlb copper (+50%yoy) and 717klb molybdenum (+113%) produced.
• Higher diesel prices expected to add US$0.10-0.15/lb to annual operating costs at Gibraltar.
• The team has a fixed price contract in place for sulphuric acid demand at Florence for 2026 with no impact from a recent pickup in prices expected on operations.

URU Metals* (URU LN) 6.37p, Mkt cap £6.2m – FDEM electromagnetics to enhance resolution of potential magmatic conduit at Zeb Nickel project

• URU Metals reports the completion of line preparation over two priority survey areas for planned ground-based geophysics at the Zeb Nickel Project.
• The survey is using FDEM ‘frequency-domain electromagnetics’ to enhance the resolution of previously completed airborne geophysics.
• The team identified several coincident gravity-magnetic-electromagnetic anomalies which may be associated with a magmatic conduit system linking the Uitloop ultramafic bodies.
• Better resolution should refine the definition and geometry of conductive bodies which are thought to be associated with semi-massive nickel sulphide mineralisation.
• The results will help drill targeting.
• The press release contains a map highlighting the proximity of URUs license and survey areas to Ivanplat’s Platreef PGM-nickel mine less than 5km away.
• The Platreef mine stated production of PGM-Nickel concentrate on 18 November 2025 and is currently ramping up output with high-volume hoisting beginning this month.
• Platreef is scheduled to start a major Phase 2 expansion targeting completion in Q4 2027 to significantly boost output.

Conclusion: Zeb Nickel’s near proximity to Ivanplat’s Platreef mine is particularly interesting considering the potential for the identification of a magmatic conduit system at the Zeb Nickel project. If URU are able to drill into a higher-grade system this should be of interest to their neighbours including AmPlat’s Mogalakwena PGM mine (15km away) and Sibanye Stillwater’s Akanani Project (30km away).

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to URU Metals

Yancoal (YAL AU) A$7.1, Mkt Cap A$9.3bn – Acquiring EMR’s stake in Kestrel mine for $1.85bn

• Yancoal has agreed to acquire 80% of the Kestrel Coal Mine from EMR, with the remaining 20% retained by Mitsui.
• Yancoal will pay $1.85bn at closing, with a $550m price-linked contingent consideration.
• The contingent payment is based on Kestrel’s average realised price, Yancoal’s attributable sales from Kestrel, a 30% revenue share to the assessable consideration and trigger at $225/t Platts HCC index.
• The acquisition will be funded via a $1.2bn acquisition facility, a $200m working capital facility, and $650-850m in existing cash.
• Yancoal expects to close the transaction in 3Q26, following FIRB and ACCC approvals.
• The Company sees the acquisition as securing a long-life metallurgical coal asset able to contribute immediate production volumes and operating cash flows.
• Kestrel holds 164mt of marketable reserves, set to account for 17% of Yancoal’s total 771mt pro-forma reserves.
• The underground Kestrel mine produced 5.9mt in 2025 and noted in top 35% of global seaborne metallurgical supply with A$147/t FOB unit costs in 2025.
• Yancoal notes the acquisition was agreed at 8.5x EV/EBITDA (2025 basis) vs a peer average of 11.1x.
• The mine generated 34% EBITDA margins in 2025 for A$300m in EBITDA,
• Kestrel is expected to produce 6mt in 2026.

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II - Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return

SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange.