SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 17.12.25

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Andrada Mining (ATM LN) – 3Q25 production climbs on stronger higher throughput

Asante Gold (ASE CN) – C$156m raise to increase liquidity and satisfy accordion facility terms

Cora Gold (CORA LN) – £1m raised for Sanankoro

Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) – Ilmenite guidance downgraded amid focus on WCP A desliming

Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – Operations update and maiden payment for shipped concentrate received

(Kodal Minerals Plc now, effectively, hold 49% of 65% of the Bougouni project (~32% effective interest) with Mali holding 35% through LMLB and 65% of LMLB held by the Kodal jv with Hainan Mining within KMUK)

Perseus Mining (PRU AU) – Reports of new acquisition targets following Predictive bid failure

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN)– Management changes

Silver ($66/oz) and PGMs lead gold higher as US unemployment rate edges higher

• Precious metals are on the move again, with silver hitting new record highs overnight.
• Platinum and palladium have followed, with platinum hitting $1,959/oz this morning, up 105% over the past 12 months.
• Palladium is up 3% at $1,709/oz, up 82% past 12 months.
• Gold continues to hover around $4,320/oz, where it seems to be consolidating following the recent rally, up c.7% over the past month.
• Precious metals are catching a bid following a tepid US jobs report, which saw unemployment rise to 4.6% and average hourly earnings slide.
• Weaker US labour markets are supportive of increased easing policies, which have lifted the precious metals complex in the past.
• Traders are also watching Venezuela, where Trump has sanctioned oil tankers amid increased threats of land strikes.

IG TV  Commodity Corner        (17/12/25):  https://www.youtube.com/live/Oot_FOKduLs?si=4XQOxoyDr1VWV8b_&t=4770 

(09/12/25):  https://www.youtube.com/live/E8IBOXDwYKs?si=Ie8TQjY0Xeuyg4j1&t=6417

(02/12/25):  https://www.youtube.com/live/XJDYYt31w_g?si=8lB4TP7a7pIGHrZ4&t=6672

Economics

US – Labour report showed the economy added 64k jobs in November, better than expected, although, that comes on the heels of 105k lost in the previous month.

• Unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.6%, up from 4.4% in September.
• October dip in employment largely driven a 162k contraction in federal government employment.
• Odds of rate cuts remained largely unchanged post report and currently stand at two 25bp moves in 2026.
• Retail Sales (%mom, Oct / Sep / Est): 0.0 / 0.2 (revised from 0.1) / 0.1
• Retail Sales Control Group (%mom, Oct / Sep / Est): 0.8 / -0.1 / 0.4
• NFPs (Nov / Oct / Est): +64k / -105k / 50k
• Av Hourly Earnings (%yoy, Nov / Oct / Est): 3.5 / 3.7 / 3.6
• Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (Dec / Nov / Est): 51.8 / 52.2 / 52.1
• Preliminary Services PMI (Dec / Nov / Est): 52.9 / 54.1 / 54.0
• Preliminary Composite PMI (Dec / Nov / Est): 53.0 / 54.2 / 53.9

UK – Inflation dropped to the lowest in eight months with headline measure at 3.2% in November.

• A welcome news for the monetary policy authorities with the BOE widely expected to announce a 25bp rate cut in December.
• Markets are now fully pricing in two cuts by the end of April.
• The pound is off this morning.
• Core and Services CPIs also pulled back but remain at quite elevated levels compared to historic levels.
• CPI (%mom, Nov / Oct / Est): -0.2 / 0.4 / 0.0
• CPI (%yoy, Nov / Oct / Est): 3.2 / 3.6 / 3.5
• Core CPI (%yoy, Nov / Oct / Est): 3.2 / 3.4 / 3.4
• Services CPI (%yoy, Nov / Oct / Est): 4.4 / 4.5 / 4.5

Germany

• Ifo Current Assessment (Dec / Nov / Est): 85.6 / 85.6 / 85.8
• Ifo Expectations (Dec / Nov / Est): 89.7 / 90.5 (revised from 90.6) / 90.5

EU / Ukraine - EU may issue common debt to fund Ukraine in preference to using frozen Russian assets

• Ursula von der Leyen appears to be opening the door to the issuance of common debt for Ukraine in preference to using Russian assets.
• Th European Council is expected to vote on the use of utilising frozen Russian assets or the issuance of common debt.
• Von der Leyen appears committed to EU funding of Ukraine as the Trump administration threatens to withdraw.

Zimbabwe – Government requires foreign investors to offload 25% equity annually to Zimbabweans

• Local news sources say the government has reserved 14 economic sectors for citizens.
• The new initiative is not likely to hit Kavango, Caledonia Resources and other western miners according to a well-informed local source.
• The initiative may well hit other business which are working with artisanal miners.

Currencies

US$1.1720/eur vs 1.1749/eur previous. Yen 155.46/$ vs 154.86/$. SAr 16.767/$ vs 16.803/$. $1.333/gbp vs $1.338/gbp. 0.662/aud vs         0.664/aud. CNY 7.045/$ vs 7.042/$.

Dollar Index 98.58 vs   98.21 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,315/oz vs US$4,281/oz previous

Gold ETFs 98.4moz vs 98.3moz previous

Platinum US$1,919/oz vs US$1,805/oz previous

Palladium US$1,626/oz vs US$1,577/oz previous

Silver US$65.8/oz vs US$63.1/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,950/oz vs US$7,950/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$11,686/t vs US$11,587/t previous

Aluminium US$2,879/t vs US$2,870/t previous

Nickel US$14,365/t vs US$14,330/t previous

Zinc US$3,039/t vs US$3,050/t previous

Lead US$1,945/t vs US$1,945/t previous

Tin US$41,600/t vs US$40,700/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$59.6/bbl vs US$59.9/bbl previous

·        Brent crude oil prices rebounded back above $60/bbl in early trading after President Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers to Venezuela and the API estimated a 9.3mb w/w oil inventory draw (-2.2mb exp) in the USA.

·        European energy prices were stable as France's nuclear generation fell 3% w/w to 84% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.

Natural Gas €27.1/MWh vs €27.0/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $78.3/lb vs $78.5/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$103.6/t vs US$102.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$458.8/t vs US$458.8/t

HCC FOB Australia US$211.0/t vs US$208.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$106.0/t vs US$106.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$52,790/t vs US$52,790/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$82,044/t vs US$82,216/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$13,485/t vs US$13,490/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,120/t vs US$1,120/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$883/mtu vs US$858/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$98/lb vs US$98/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.2/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$24.2/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$259/t vs US$259/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$3,013/t vs US$3,013/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,114/t vs US$1,115/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs  US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$357.5/t vs US$357.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

16 US states sue Trump administration after suspension of EV charging programs

• 16 states and the District of Columbia are suing the Trump administration over the withholding of around $2bn in funding for EV charging projects.
• The programs were created under the 2022 bipartisan infrastructure law to direct billions in funding for EV charging.
• The law suit, led by California, Washington, and Colorado, argue the suspension jeopardises about $1.8bn in grants and undermines climate policy, clean transport expansion, and local projects.
• Earlier this year a court decision blocked the suspension of the EV charging programs.



Company news

Andrada Mining (ATM LN) 3.4p, Mkt Cap £64m – 3Q25 production climbs on stronger higher throughput

• The Company released an operations update at the Uis Tin Mine, Namibia.
• Production climbed to 255t contained tin (+10%yoy) on the back of higher throughput.
• Throughput 259kt (+8%yoy), processed grades 0.14% Sn (+5%) and recovery rates 73% (-1pp).
• Continuous Improvement (CI2) programme helped with increased throughput rates.
• Tantalum production down to 789kg (-54%) due to lower recoveries (3.7%, -2pp).
• Tin shipments up at 15 (7%) delivering into a tightening market.
• Strong tin market reported with prices up 40% YTD breaking US$40,000/t level.
• Additionally, the Company reports that exploration drilling is ramping up at the Lithium Ridge JV with SQM.
• A third drill rig was mobilised at site with drilling results targeted for release in 1H26.

Asante Gold (ASE CN) C$1.8, Mkt Cap C$1.2bn – C$156m raise to increase liquidity and satisfy accordion facility terms

• Asante Gold is raising C$156m via bought deal at C$1.6/share.
• Brokers have an option to raise an additional C$23.4m.
• Asante has also reached an agreement with its senior lenders to increase the accordion facility by $30m, on condition of a $90m equity raise.
• Asante is advancing the Bibiani and Chirano gold projects.
• Asante produced 37koz in 3Q25 at an AISC of $4,575/oz and adj. EBITDA of -6.4m. 
• Bibani has been impacted by low recoveries and high stripping activity, alongside ‘extreme rainfall events.’
• Management is focusing optimising the Bibiani mine plan with fleet initiatives and mining changes.
• Bibiani’s processing plant has also suffered, with recoveries of 57% in the latest quarter, noting crushing and oxygen plant issues.
• Asante is guiding for 215-245koz Au in 2026 from Bibiani as it aims to hit 500kozpa by 2028.
• Chirano produced 26koz over the prior quarter, at AISC of $2,964/oz.
• Asante is focusing on improving crushing at Chirano, alongside increased underground development.
• Chirano is expected to produce 150-175koz in 2026.

Cora Gold (CORA LN) 6.45p, Mkt Cap £31m – £1m raised for Sanankoro

• Cora Gold has raised £1.05m at 6p/share.
• Funds will be used to advance the Sanankoro Gold Project in Mali.
• Company reports commitments from major shareholders Brookstone, Lord Farmer, First Island Trust, Marlborough Trust and Maggianda Foundation.
• Directors Ed Bowie, Adam Davidson and Robert Munro will subscribe for 166.7k shares each.
• Cora is engaging with the Ministry of Mines for the award of the mining permit.
• Sanankoro Gold Project, Mali:
  • Aiming for 1.5mtpa CIL and gravity plant from open pit operation.
  • 10 year LOM with 531koz in reserves at 1.13g/t Au.
  • AISC of $1,530/oz at $3,000/oz, with LOM production of 482koz.
  • CAPEX guided at $181m over LOM, with pre-production CAPEX of $181m.
  • Post-tax NPV8 of $268m and IRR of 76% at $3,000/oz.

Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) 241p, Mkt Cap £215m – Ilmenite guidance downgraded amid focus on WCP A desliming

• Kenmare provides an update on its WCP A upgrade and 2025 production guidance.
• The Company is upgrading its WCP A mining plant, before transitioning to the larger ore zone Nataka.
• CAPEX for the project remains unchanged at $341m and new dredging ore volumes have exceeded the 2025 monthly average.
• However, management notes that there have been issues related to slimes management with the plant commissioning.
• Water returned from the new TSF to the mining pond currently contains excess slimes, with slimes pumping facilities requiring optimisation.
• Kenmare has installed additional pumping capacity, with improvement expected in December.
• Kenmare has pushed back its WCP A nameplate capacity to 1Q26.
• The Company notes they are prioritising bringing WCP A to nameplate vs producing additional ilmenite.
• As a result, Kenmare expects ilmenite production in 2025 c.830kt, down from November guidance of 870-905kt and original 2025 guidance of 930-1,050kt.
• OPEX guidance remains at $228-252m.
• Kenmare will provide 2026 guidance in January.

Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) 0.33p, Mkt Cap £67m – Operations update and maiden payment for shipped concentrate received

(Kodal Minerals Plc now, effectively, hold 49% of 65% of the Bougouni project (~32% effective interest) with Mali holding 35% through LMLB and 65% of LMLB held by the Kodal jv with Hainan Mining within KMUK)

• The Company released an operations update at the Bougouni Lithium Mine, Mali.
• DMS circuit restarted post planned maintenance and as ROM stockpile is being rebuilt.
• DMS restarted late September treating low grade and transitional ore as the team calibrated and upgraded the plant to reach 125ktpa SC nameplate.
• The plant was temporarily suspended as the Company awaited concentrate export permits with DMS circuit now back up and running again from this week.
• The plant expected to run at nameplate (100ktpm ore and 10ktpm SC) in due course.
• Ngoualana pit dewatering is ongoing with operations focused on blasting and mining pegmatite ore from the middle level of the pit.
• ROM ore stockpile currently at 65kt.
• Mining contracts operate at full capacity with no fuel supply issues reported.
• Concentrate trucking the port of San Pedro is ongoing a second shipment (min 20kt SC) to China is planned for 1Q26.
• Export permits for the next 20kt in place.
• Maiden payment for the first shipment completed in November (95% of the total) for the total of $21.3m received.
• Drilling programme at Boumou to identify more DMS feed is ongoing with latest drilling results returning wide high grade close to surface intersections.
• Selected intersections include:
  • 54m at 1.57% Li2O from 104.5m in drill hole KLDH067;
  • 37m at 1.60% Li2O from 62.5m in drill hole KLDH060; and
  • 20m at 1.41% Li2O from 86m;
  • 9.5m at 1.73% Li2O from 110.5m; and
  • 20.5m at 1.23% Li2O from 219m in drill hole KLDH056.
• The team is planning further drilling, met testwork and geotechnical assessment to develop a mining plan for Boumou.
• Comprehensive quarterly update to be provided April 2026 as Bougouni moves towards a steady state producer.

Conclusion: Bougouni is transitioning to a steady state operator with the DMS plant back online, exports permits secured and maiden concentrate shipment payment ($21m for 95% of shipped product) received. Near term focus on ramping up to nameplate (100ktpm throughput) as lithium market gains more traction and prices recover (>$1,100/SC6.0 currently, +>40% YTD).

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Kodal

Perseus Mining (PRU AU) A$5.6, Mkt Cap A$7.6bn – Reports of new acquisition targets following Predictive bid failure

• Australian media is reporting Perseus is looking elsewhere now following their failed attempt at buying Predictive Discovery.
• Perseus had interloped a merger between Robex Resources and Predictive in early December and has guided it will not be amending its offer.
• Predictive holds the Bankan Project in Guinea, which expects to produce 249kozpa over a 12 year LOM.
• The Australian reported overnight that Perseus could potentially look to Turaco Gold*, who hold the Afema gold project in Cote d’Ivoire, or WIA Gold*, who hold the Kokoseb project in Namibia.
• Turaco’s Afema Project:
  • Global MRE of 103mt at 1.2g/t Au for 4.1moz Au, with the bulk of ounces coming from the Woulo Woulo and Asupiri pits.
  • Turaco is targeting a PFS due 2Q26, following an updated MRE in 1Q26.
  • Turaco expects to deliver a DFS in 1Q27, and holds a mining permit.
• Wia Gold’s Kokoseb project:
  • Scoping study guiding 146kozpa over 11 year LOM from inventory of 1.83moz at 0.97g/t Au
  • Post-tax NPV5 of $646m and IRR of 28% at $2,600/oz.
  • DFS due 2H26 alongside maiden underground MRE.
  • Exploitation permit expected 1H26.
• The Australian quotes sources suggesting Perseus is more likely to bid for Wia ‘because the project is more advanced.’

Conclusion: We reiterate our conclusion from yesterday that we would still not be surprised to see Perseus come back with revised terms, potentially including a cash element. Perseus needs to improve its production profile into 2030, with Nyanzaga being brought online to offset depletion from Sissingue and Edikan. Should Perseus fail to secure Bankan, there are limited alternative options, with Turaco’s Afema, WIA’s Kokoseb in Namibia or Kefi’s Tulu Kapi the most likely single asset targets.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad/Broker to Kefi, an SP Angel analyst holds shares in PDI, TCG and WIA

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.05p, Mkt Cap £2.4m – Management changes

• Tertiary Minerals reports a change in management.
• Tertiary founder Patrick Cheetham, current Executive Chairman, will take the role of Non-Executive Chairman from January.
• Mr Cheetham states that Richard Belcher’s appointment to MD in March 2025 reflects a ‘broader plan to refresh the Company’s management team.
• Tertiary is aiming to deliver a maiden JORC Exploration Target for the Mushima North Ag-Cu-Zn project in 1Q26.

Conclusion: Patrick founded Tertiary in 1999 and has guided the Company to it’s current strong position in Zambia, where it has identified the Mushima North project as a prospective shallow-lying, bulk tonnage and silver-heavy operation. Tertiary continues to work with KoBold to identify deep-lying extensions of major copper deposits in the Zambian Copper Belt.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

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London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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