Broker SP Angel has set a target price of 9.4p for Harena Rare Earths (HREE ), based on an estimate that the net asset value of the company’s Ampasindava rare earth assets runs to around US$100 million.
The company’s current share price is 4p, up by more than 11% on the release of the research report. The current market capitalisation is just under £25 million.
“Ampasindava offers an attractive exposure to an emerging ex-China source of valuable magnet rare earth oxides at a time when all heavy rare earth elements are under Chinese export controls and European dysprosium/terbium prices are trading at 4–5x Chinese levels,” the broker wrote.
“The combination of strategic importance of MREOs, improving geopolitical tailwinds and upcoming technical/permitting catalysts creates the potential for a material rerating as the project advances toward final investment decision.”
Harena’s 100%-owned Ampasindava project in Madagascar is a large, long-life ionic adsorption clay deposit hosting 699 million tonnes grading 868 parts per million total rare earth oxides, with around 22% magnetic rare earth oxides and around 2% DyTb.
Harena’s recently completed preliminary feasibility study outlines a five million tonnes per year heap leach operation producing around 4.1ktpa TREO over 18 years.
SP Angel calls the proposed US$140 million capex “modest” and highlights various advantageous pricing scenarios for neodymium, praseodymium, terbium and dysprosium.
“Project economics are driven by magnet rare earths, which account for around 40% of volume but around 95% of value, with revenue exposure concentrated in NdPr (~60%), Tb (~20%) and Dy (~15%) offering a significant operational leverage to sustained MREO strength and ex-China pricing premiums,” said the broker.
It also highlighted that the rare earths market remains structurally concentrated, with more than 60% of upstream supply and more than 90% of downstream processing controlled by China, creating supply chain vulnerabilities for advanced, high-value industries — including EVs, renewable energy, healthcare, robotics, aerospace and defence — that are increasingly viewed as critical to Western national security.
View from Vox
SP Angel’s 41-page analysis of the potential on offer from Harena’s Ampasindava rare earths project makes for impressive reading. The project is well positioned geographically, economically, and geopolitically. Lots of positive newsflow is coming too, including the results of ongoing discussions with the US International Development Finance Corporation, and the completion of a definitive feasibility study. SP Angel’s research implies, it says, a “180% potential upside.”