Analysts at Berenberg lowered their target price on gold producer Endeavour Mining from 2,300.0p to 2,100.0p on Friday as it called 2025 the group's "Jerry Maguire moment".
Berenberg said a broad theme for gold investors over the past decade has been the need to see excess capital returns from gold miners in periods of high commodity prices.
"In effect, the theme is 'show me the money'," it said.
After some activist investors took umbrage against the sector in 2017, Berenberg thinks that the gold sector has sought to create better value for shareholders, but also noted that it has not always been successful.
"2025 is, for us, Endeavour's time to show the market the money that it creates from its assets now that capex has rolled away at its major projects (Lafigue in Côte d'Ivoire and the Sabodala-Massawa expansion in Senegal) and deliver excess capital returns in a period of balance sheet de-gearing," said the German bank.
Berenberg, which reiterated its 'buy' rating on the stock, calculates a roughly 5% three-year forward dividend yield and reckons that Endeavour can complement this with more aggressive share buybacks over the course of 2025.
Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com