Vp’s trading update this morning prompts a reset of earnings expectations to reflect current market headwinds. Q4 trading has been impacted by a muted January ‘return to work’ with activity in construction and water highlighted as being particularly challenging. Good progress is being made with the transformation of Brandon Hire Station and we expect an increase in water revenue during FY27, given significant spending committed under AMP8. We reduce our earnings forecasts to reflect today’s guidance with a corresponding change to our Fair Value estimate (to 750p from 1000p). Post downgrades, the shares are trading on <10x P/E, which we consider attractive for a high-quality business with significant recovery and long term growth potential.
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