SP Angel . Morning View . Friday 23.01.26

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Aura Energy* (AURA LN) – Häggån strategic spin out values the project at C$50m

Celsius Resources (CLA LN) – MCB DFS outlines 2.6mtpa underground copper operation

Freeport-McMoran (FCX US) – Quarterly report reiterates Grasberg restart plan

Phoenix Copper * (PXC LN) – Conversion of loan notes by Indigo Capital

Tectonic Metals (TECT CN) – 37m at 10g/t Au intercepted at Chicken Mountain

Gold ($4,930/oz) makes new high alongside silver on heightened geopolitical tensions

• Gold prices rose to $4,970/oz at 23:08pm last night in the spot market, consolidating overnight at $4,930/oz gaining >7% on the week
• Silver hit $101.8/oz at 1:24am this morning following gold and lifted by demand for solar panels and EVs.
• Gold’s move appears supported by Poland’s ongoing buying alongside Chinese investors who don’t trust their own currency and increased tensions between major allies the US and EU.
• Trump’s intervention in Venezuela counters China’s growing influence in the region with drug lords and dictators looking to stash wealth outside the banking system.
• Trump’s move for Greenland has opened a new paradigm in geopolitical manoeuvring, threatening tariffs on the EU but downplaying concerns over the use of force.
• We also consider the White House’s increasing aggravation of Fed policy, pushing for lower rates and a more dovish Fed Chair, as reducing confidence in US government debt.
• This comes at a time of record deficits, which is likely to be further exacerbated by increased defence spending.
• Silver has also rallied, nearing $100/oz as traders chase positive precious metal momentum.
• Goldman Sachs raised their gold forecasts to $5,400/oz, likely bringing further retail attention into precious metals markets and supporting the rally.

Greenland – Deal pre-agreed between US staff and Greenlandic Administration

• We had to chuckle as European leaders and our illustrious PM scrambled to work out what is going on between the US in Greenland.
• While the world’s press focussed on Davos, just one news service thought of talking to people in Greenland and even they interviewed ‘Danish’ Greenlanders and not the indigenous decision makers.
• Our ‘sources’ say a framework was pre-agreed between the US and the autonomous Greenland government.
• Trump caught his NATO allies off-guard at Davos causing much consternation and public grandstanding.
• The grandstanding may have diluted the US acquisition of Greenland into long-term control of ‘pockets of land’ and mineral rights as we don’t believe Trump really wants to blow up NATO.
• The deal has an ‘indefinite’ timeframe and is designed to block Russian influence in Greenland.
• We believe the deal involves the US Golden Dome system in some form and we wonder if Greenland is a critical location for its emplacement.
• The deal will also involve US-backed infrastructure investment, and we believe this may feed directly into funding for exploration and development.
• Greenland, is a special place in so many ways and can not manage more than 10 new mines due to Social impact issues.
• Rare Earths (REEs): The two, known REE deposits have ‘issues’ which make them difficult to develop. One has high Thorium (radionuclide) grade, the other is a particularly difficult metallurgy.
• But there are other REE deposits to be discovered and like the three bears, we suspect there will be others which are just right.
• The receding ice sheet should show up new mineral opportunities with discoveries to be made by remote sensing and good ‘old fashioned’ geological leg work.
• The short field season, rough terrain and limits on helicopters mean exploration is not for the faint hearted, but fortune favours the brave great mineral wealth waits to be discovered.
• Miners to watch:
  • 80 Mile plc* is actively exploring a number of polymetallic sites in west Greenland and is preparing to drill for helium and other industrial gasses on the east side.
  • Amaroq Minerals is looking to develop the Nalunaq Gold mine.
  • GreenRoc is evaluating the old Amitsoq graphite mine for processing of Anode Active Material in Norway
• Normally we would recommend the shovel ready projects for investment but we feel the potential for new discovery is substantial and patient investors should look for promising exploration.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to 80 Mile plc. The Analyst has previously visited mineral projects in Greenland.

We are now in a new commodities cycle: on VOX: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a

• Podcast: The Vox Markets Podcast / Mining Matters: We are now in a new commodities cycle, says SP Angel's John Meyer

IG TV - Copper, Silver and the New Commodities Cycle | Commodity Markets Weekly:  https://youtu.be/mdU5EEjc3Z8?si=BjTihCKKoeKlYHYn

LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls: - SP Angel ranked No1 for Precious Metals in the 2025

Currencies

US$1.1739/eur vs 1.1694/eur previous. Yen 158.39/$ vs 158.74/$. SAr 16.160/$ vs 16.232/$. $1.349/gbp vs $1.343/gbp. 0.685/aud vs 0.680/aud. CNY 6.964/$ vs 6.963/$

Dollar Index 98.42 vs 98.80 previous

Eurozone – Flash PMIs show output continued to grow in January as business confidence strengthened.

• New business orders expanded for the sixth consecutive month, although, at the slowest pace since September 2025.
• New export orders were down, albeit, to a lesser extent than in December.
• Employment contracted (only marginally) ending a three month run of jobs growth.
• Final goods prices picked up led by services sector while prices in manufacturing continued to fall marginally.
• Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 49.4 (48.8 December).
• Eurozone Services PMI 51.9 (52.4).
• Eurozone Composite PMI 51.5 (51.5).

Germany – Private sector growth picked up to a three month high, although, the recovery remains fragile.

• Sentiment is helped by large fiscal stimulus through higher spending on defence and infrastructure.
• Manufacturing PMI: 48.7 (47.0 December)
• Services PMI: 53.3 (52.7)
• Composite PMI: 52.5 (51.3)

France – Business activity drops to a three months low led by a fall in the services sector.

• Businesses are reporting reluctance from customers to place orders amid ongoing political deadlock regarding the nation’s budget.
• Risks are further exacerbated by renewed US-EU trade disputes amid discussions over who should be controlling Greenland.
• Manufacturing PMI: 51.0 (50.7 December)
• Services PMI: 47.9 (50.1)
• Composite PMI: 48.6 (50.0)

Japan – The central bank holds rates at 0.75% in a split 8-1 decision while upgrades GDP forecasts and marginally increases inflation forecast.

• GDP revised to 0.9% (0.7% before) for FY26 (March YE).
• Core CPI forecast increased to 1.9% in 2026, up from 1.8% three months ago.

High volatility in the FX market as financial authorities are suspected of an intervention.

• “We’re watching with a sense of urgency,” Finance Minister Katayma told reported today.

Private sector output grows at quickest rate for nearly a 1.5 years.

• Selling prices inflation rose at the fastest rate in 20 months with both goods and services providers raising their charges.
• Manufacturing PMI: 51.5 (50.0 December)
• Services PMI: 53.4 (51.6)
• Composite PMI: 52.8 (51.1)

UK – Strong start to the year with private businesses reporting higher demand both from home abroad.

• Growth picked in both manufacturing and services.
• On a less positive note, high staffing costs led by government policies relating to higher NI and the minimum wage saw jobs numbers going down.
• Manufacturing PMI: 51.6 (50.6 December)
• Services PMI: 54.3 (51.4)
• Composite PMI: 53.9 (51.4)

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,922/oz vs US$4,828/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 100.0moz vs 99.8moz previous

Platinum US$2,619/oz vs US$2,469/oz previous

Palladium US$1,899/oz vs US$1,852/oz previous

Silver US$97.8/oz vs US$94.1/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 846.7moz vs 848.8moz previous

Rhodium US$10,300/oz vs US$10,200/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$12,867/t vs US$12,728/t previous

Aluminium US$3,136/t vs US$3,131/t previous

Nickel US$18,575/t vs US$18,065/t previous

Zinc US$3,226/t vs US$3,196/t previous

Lead US$2,023/t vs US$2,027/t previous

Tin US$53,400/t vs US$51,095/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$64.6/bbl vs US$65.0/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices were stable going into the weekend after the EIA estimated w/w US inventory builds of 3.6mb to crude, 6.0mb to gasoline and 3.3mb to distillate stocks, as refinery utilisation fell 2.0% to 93.3% on 13.73mb/d of domestic output.
• US Henry Hub Feb26 contract prices remain at their highest levels in over 3 years ahead of this weekend’s winter storms, as the EIA reported a 120bcf w/w storage draw to 3,065bcf, with inventories now 4.8% above last year and 6.1% above the five-year average.

Natural Gas €37.7/MWh vs €39.0/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $86.5/lb vs $85.0/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$104.4/t vs US$103.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$465.6/t vs US$465.8/t

HCC FOB Australia US$231.0/t vs US$230.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$112.8/t vs US$113.3/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$96,574/t vs US$95,434/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$23,048/t vs US$22,404/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,235/t vs US$2,170/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,218/mtu vs US$1,188/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$112/lb vs US$111/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.1/lb vs US$5.1/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.5/kg vs US$24.5/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$261/t vs US$261/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,908/t vs US$2,908/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,127/t vs US$1,127/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365.0/t vs US$365.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg



Company News:

Aura Energy* (AURA LN) 11p, Mkt Cap £100m – Häggån strategic spin out values the project at C$50m

• The Company agreed a transaction with strategic investors valuing the Häggån Polymetallic Project, Sweden, at ~C$50m.
• Under the binding agreement Aura spins out the project into SIU Metals, a new 100% owner of Häggån.
• Strategic investors including MMCAP International, Aura’s largest shareholder, are putting in C$10m for a 19.7% in SIU Metals, implying a C$50 valuation for the Häggån Project.
• Aura to retain 78.7% interest in SIU Metals.
• SIU Metals is planning a TSXV listing and to be renamed following the transaction.
• Proceeds to be used for permitting, resource expansion, drilling on surrounding tenements (incl. Gräsmyråsen), and working capital.
• Aura to appoint new board and management to SIU Metals post-completion.
• Financing expected to be completed in February 2026 and transaction to close June 2026.
• The deal follows on the Minerals Act released on 1 January 2026 in Sweden allowing exploration for and extraction of uranium.
• Stock is up 10% this morning.

Conclusion: The deal attracts new capital to advance the Häggån Project valuing it implied ~C$50m while allowing Aura to maintain significant exposure to the asset following a favourable change in legislation regarding exploration and extraction of uranium in Sweden.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Aura Energy

Celsius Resources (CLA LN) 1.1p, Mkt Cap £36m – MCB DFS outlines 2.6mtpa underground copper operation

• Celsius Resources reports DFS results for the MCB copper-gold project in the Philippines.
• Th study envisages a 35 year LOM and total mined tonnage of 90mt at 0.69% Cu and 0.24g/t Au.
• Reserves stated at 130mt at 0.66% Cu and 0.21g/t Au, with remaining tonnage sterilised on social boundary constraints.
• The underground operation will support a 2.64mtpa processing plant producing average annual copper concentrate of 66kt.
• Concentrate grade targeted at 24% Cu and 5ppm Au.
• Ore will be delivered to the mine via shaft and winder system and processed via SSAG milling, rougher flotation, regrind and cleaner flotation.
• Tailings to be returned underground as paste backfill or in a dry-stack area.
• CAPEX guided at $276m, recoveries at 90% Cu and 73% Au, with LOM sustaining CAPEX guided at $218m.
• Study assumes $4.3/lb Cu and $3,000/oz Au over the first nine years, followed by $7/lb Cu and $4,500/oz for the remainder.
• This achieves a post-tax NPV8 of $771m and post-tax IRR of 24%.
• LOM C1 costs guided at $1.73/lb, with ore mined guided at $37/t ($18.9/t mining, $16.4/lb processing and $1.9/t G&A).
• Earlier mining of higher-grade ore supports $230mpa EBITDA over the first 10 years of production.
• Management is guiding for FID in 1Q26, with first concentrate expected 3Q28.
• Celsius is currently progressing funding and offtake discussions to reach FID and construction.

Freeport-McMoran (FCX US) $59, Mkt Cap $85bn – Quarterly report reiterates Grasberg restart plan

• Freeport reported Q4 and FY25 results yesterday.
• Freeport produced 3.4bnlb Cu over the period, down from 4.2bnlb in 2024.
• Copper net cash costs per pound reported at $1.65, up from $1.56 prior year.
• Gold production reported at 956koz over the year, down from 1,880koz 2024.
• Company reiterates Grasberg guidance to restart production blocks 2 and 3 in 2Q26, potentially restarting Block 1 in 2027.
• Freeport expects to return to 85% of normal operating rates in 2H26.
• Freeport is targeting 300mlb Cu production from leaching processes, up from 240mlb 2025.
• Cash and cash equivalents reported at $3.8bn as of December, and guides for $8bn of operating cash flows in 2026 at $5/lb Cu, $4,000/oz Au and $20/lb Mo.
• CAPEX reported at $4.5bn in 2025, and guides for $4.3bn in 2026.
• Consolidated debt reported at $9.4bn.

Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) 2.5p, Mkt Cap £7.6m – Conversion of loan notes by Indigo Capital

(Phoenix holds 80% of the Empire mining property in Idaho)

• Phoenix Copper provides an update on their convertible loan notes with Indigo Capital.
• Indigo has converted $536k at 1.483p/share into 27m new shares.
• Indigo will divest 24m of the new shares to ‘various equity funds and family offices in Europe and elsewhere.’
• Management highlights Phoenix’s Empire project sensitivity to prices of $5.58/lb Cu, $4,338/oz Au and $71/oz Ag of:
  • Post-tax NPV7.5 of $216m and IRR of 86.6% vs 2024 PFS of $74m and IRR of 40%.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Phoenix Copper

Tectonic Metals (TECT CN) C$1.5, Mkt Cap C$136m – 37m at 10g/t Au intercepted at Chicken Mountain

• Tectonic Metals reports drilling results from its Chicken Mountain project in Southwest Alaska.
• The Company has drilled 18,373m in 2025 and reported results from 42 holes yesterday.
• Highlights included:
  • CMR25-084: 36.6m at 9.94g/t Au (inc. 104g/t Au over 3m) from surface, ending in mineralisation
• Management reports 176/176 holes intersected gold mineralisation over the 2025 programme, with 61% of those ending in mineralisation.
• Management believes the Chicken Mountain project mineralisation opens at depth and in all direction.
• The Company is targeting a maiden mineral resource estimate, and has 34 drill holes pending assays.
• Shares rallied 50% in trading yesterday.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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