SP Angel . Morning View . Thursday 11.12.25

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Amarc Resources (AHR CN)  – Expanding AuRORA deposit with drilling

Aurum Resources (AUE AU) – Further results from 130,000m 2025 drilling programme

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) – Ghana government to take further consideration on Ewoyaa Mining Lease

Blencowe Resources (BRES LN) – Additional funds to progress the Orom Cross graphite project, Uganda

Cerro de Pasco (CDPR CN) – Advancing studies for reprocessing of Quiulacocha tailings

East Star Resources (EST LN) – Development path for Verkhuba

Great Southern Copper (GSCU LN) – Cerro Negro drilling enhances the potential scale of Mostaza

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) – Funding for Victoria Falls Stock Exchange listing

Lindian Resources (LIN AU) – Kangankunde REE Project development update

Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) – The HyProMag Texas Facility lease agreed

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) – Woes deepen as liabilities mount at the Zulu lithium plant, Zimbabwe

Robex Resources (RXR CN) – Amended agreement to acquire Predictive Discovery

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Latest Redmoor drilling results

Silver ($62.5/oz) extends gains as gold edges higher following Fed meeting

• Silver’s rally continues, up another 2.3% this morning to record highs on speculative inflows and shortage concerns.
• Gold remains rangebound around the $4,200/oz level, having taken another leg up in late November.
• Gold has struggling to reclaim record highs made in October, fuelled by a combination of heavy retail buying and Tether building a sizeable bullion position.
• China’s central bank buying slowed slightly in November, although it marked the 13th consecutive month the PBoC had made net gold purchases.
• We prefer the long-term appeal of gold over silver, considering the latter a more leveraged play on the de-dollarisation thematic, likely enjoying some inflows from Bitcoin traders looking to add to the next momentum trade.
• That being said, there has been some considerable M&A in the silver space through 2025:
  • Pan American buying MAG silver for $2.1bn in May
  • First Majestic buying Gatos Silver for $1bn in January
  • DPM Metals buying Adriatic for $1.25bn in June
• Gold may benefit from renewed concerns over Trump’s influence over the Fed, with his likely nominee Hassett considered overly dovish vs Powell, raising concerns over an inflation resurgence and loss of Fed reputation.

Copper Hippopotame Bar sold for $31.4m at Sotheby’s auction

• The Hippopotame drinks cabinet was commissioned in 1976 by Anne Schlumberger and is the first and only example done in copper.
• Not wishing to be Hippo-critical but we see the value of the copper in the bar as charging higher. Apologies to all Hippos out there!

IG TV Commodity Corner (09/12/25):  https://www.youtube.com/live/E8IBOXDwYKs?si=Ie8TQjY0Xeuyg4j1&t=6417

     (02/12/25):  https://www.youtube.com/live/XJDYYt31w_g?si=8lB4TP7a7pIGHrZ4&t=6672 

Economics

US – The Fed delivered an expected 25bp cut to 3.5-3.75% although indicated that inflation remained “somewhat elevated”.

• Dot plots outlook showed no change for the rate by YE26 indicating only a single cut through the coming year.
• Stephen Miran, a President Trump ally, argued for a 50bp cut.
• In relatively hawkish comments, Jerome Powell said interest rates were “now within a broad range of estimates of its neutral value, and we are well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves”.
• Fed released updated economic projections guiding for stronger growth and slightly lower inflation in 2026.
• GDP (2026) 2.3% (+0.5pp from September)
• Unemployment (2026) 4.4% (unchanged)
• Inflation (2026) 2.4% (-0.2pp)

Separately, the Fed launched a $40bn short term bon buying programme just weeks after ending quantitative tightening programme.

• The central bank would start buying debt that matures in four weeks to a year starting December 12.
• The pace and the size of the purchases are reported to be more than expected suggesting the Fed was uneasy about the volatility in short term funding market. (FT)
• Purchases “will remain elevated for a few months” the Fed said.
• Markets climbed on the news of lower rates and new debt buying but trended lower later given relatively hawkish outlook.
• S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.7% and 1.0%, respectively, this morning.
• More policy affected 2y bond yields were down ~8bp vs pre Fed announcement hovering around 3.5%.

China – Easing of monetary policy in cross-cyclical policy move

• China is pledging monetary support and more proactive fiscal measures to support the economy in an effort to maintain 5% GDP growth.
• Policymakers are offering to loosen RRR ratios and interest rates to stabilise key sectors in the economy.
• Stimulus is to be ‘measured’ but we suspect the authorities will work hard to ensure support for struggling sectors.
• Officials are watching to manage tariff and other trade issues which might serve to impede export orders.
• While US and EU tariffs make headlines, the ASEAN bloc, Japan, S Korea, India, Indonesia, Brazil and some others might also object to trade imbalances with China.
• The Anti-Involution policy to help companies in overly competitive sectors to raise margins are likely to gain new momentum.
• Anti-Involution in mineral processing / smelting is likely to lead to an increase in raw materials prices alongside raising profit margins for Solar panel and EV manufacturing.
• Rising corporate profits from Anti-Involution could help drive related stock prices substantially higher.
• The authorities are looking to promote an element of wage growth to counteract difficulties in the property market.
• China will also look to stimulate domestic demand to counteract falls in export orders.

Japan – The central bank may hike rates four times by 2027, an ex official said.

• “They are probably thinking they have completely fallen behind the curve,” Hideo Hayakawa, the former official, said in an interview Wednesday.
• Headline inflation has been broadly in the 3-4% range over the last year.

Mexico – The government implements new tariffs on Asian imports joining the US tightening trade barriers against China.

• Tariffs would involve 5-50% on more than 1,400 products from Asian nations that do not have a trade deal with Mexico.
• Levies will take effect from next year.
• China is the 2n largest country of origin for the nation’s imports (~20%) following the US (~40%).
• Mexico is raising import tariffs on cars from countries with no free-trade deal, including India, from 20% to 50%, effective next year.
• The hike is expected to wipe out about $1bn in Indian passenger car exports to Mexico, with major exporters such as VW, Hyundai, Nissan and Suzuki likely to take a big hit.
  • In the last fiscal year Skoda (VW) shipped around $500m of cars to India.
  • Hyundai exports were around $200m, Nissan around $140m and Suzuki around $120m.
• Indian automakers had been lobbying Mexico to hold off but failed to prevent the tariff increase.
• The move is part of Mexico’s broader push to protect domestic industry, with political pressure from the US over trade routes playing a part in the decision.

UK – Pubs ban Labour MPs on tax changes

• Hundreds of landlords have barred Labour MPs from their pubs (City AM)
• Stickers reading “No Labour MPs” are now displayed on hundreds of pubs and restaurants, along with posters claiming the Budget means just one in 10 pubs are now profitable.
• The posters say “We’re not serving them until they listen.”
• Landlords and restaurateurs claim they are not listened to, are completely ignored and can not afford to strike.
• Controversial changes to business rates due to revaluations along with higher NI and other taxes are making life intolerably difficult for publicans.
• Trade body UK Hospitality estimates a £1,400 rise in the average bill next year.
• Fuller’s claim their business rates charged to their flagship Chamberlain hotel will more than double by 2029, soaring to £335,000 from £156,000.

ECB – likely to upgrade its economic growth forecasts next week

• The ECB see EU resilience to US tariffs, a stable euro and a firm labour market as offering upside for growth.
• ECB officials are signalling no need for further rate cuts and potential for a rate hike but we suspect this is a ruse to wrong foot the market.
• We reckon the ECB should want to interest rates help manufacturing compete with China in the face of high EU energy costs.
• European manufacturers are struggling to compete against a flood of Chinese EVs and other imports with Porsche threatening substantial job cuts.

Currencies

US$1.1705/eur vs 1.1650/eur previous. Yen 155.89/$ vs 156.64/$. SAr 16.907/$ vs 17.015/$. $1.338/gbp vs $1.332/gbp. 0.665/aud vs         0.665/aud. CNY 7.058/$ vs 7.064/$.

Dollar Index 98.65 vs   99.08 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,215/oz vs US$4,204/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.8moz vs 97.8moz previous

Platinum US$1,672/oz vs US$1,677/oz previous

Palladium US$1,476/oz vs US$1,507/oz previous

Silver US$62.1/oz vs US$61.5/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,975/oz vs US$7,975/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$11,626/t vs US$11,598/t previous

Aluminium US$2,874/t vs US$2,869/t previous

Nickel US$14,600/t vs US$14,810/t previous

Zinc US$3,090/t vs US$3,098/t previous

Lead US$1,989/t vs US$1,983/t previous

Tin US$40,260/t vs US$40,620/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$61.6/bbl vs US$62.1/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices were stable as the EIA estimated w/w US inventory draw of 1.1mb to crude, offset by builds of 6.4mb to gasoline and 2.5mb to distillate stocks, as refinery utilisation rose 1.4% to 95.1% on 13.85mb/d of domestic output.
• The IEA’s December oil report edged up forecasts for global oil demand growth by 0.1mb/d m/m to ~0.85mb/d in 2025 and 2026 amid an improving macroeconomic and trade outlook, with global oil supply growth forecasts cut by 0.1mb/d to 3mb/d for 2025 and marginally to 2.4mb/d for 2026, with oil inventories estimated to have grown by 1.3mb/d in 2025.
• European energy prices were stable as EU natural gas storage levels fell 2.8% w/w to 71.6% full (vs 81.4% 5-Yr average), with aggregate inventory at 817TWh and German storage levels falling below 65% full (vs 83.3% 5-Yr average).

Natural Gas €26.9/MWh vs €26.9/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $77.3/lb vs $76.3/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$101.3/t vs US$102.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$456.7/t vs US$455.8/t

HCC FOB Australia US$206.0/t vs US$204.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$108.5/t vs US$109.3/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$52,790/t vs US$52,220/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$82,031/t vs US$82,533/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$13,176/t vs US$12,883/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,125/t vs US$1,125/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$773/mtu vs US$768/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$97/lb vs US$97/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.2/lb vs US$5.2/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.2/kg vs US$24.2/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$261/t vs US$261/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,112/t vs US$1,111/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$357.5/t vs US$357.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Company news

Amarc Resources (AHR CN) C$1.3, Mkt Cap C$291m – Expanding AuRORA deposit with drilling

• Hunter Dickinson-backed Amarc report drilling from their Canadian JV with Freeport McMoran at JOY.
• The Company has completed a 24 hole, 9,687m drilling programme at AuRORA, with 23 expansion holes.
• Amarc reported yesterday they have expanded the AuRORA mineralisation a further 100m to the north.
• Additionally, drilling is believed to have extended mineralisation 200m to the east.
• Highlights include:
  • JP25109: 201m at 1.38g/t Au, 0.27% Cu and 1.6g/t Ag from 220m
  • JP25107: 201m at 1.4g/t Au, 0.28% Cu and 2.6g/t Ag from 21m
• Amarc’s CEO Dr. Nicolson states that they continue to believe the discovery ‘has the potential to unlock the emergence of a world class porphyry copper-gold deposit.’
• Assay results from four 2025 step-out holes are pending.

Aurum Resources (AUE ) A$0.6, Mkt Cap A$205m – Further results from 130,000m 2025 drilling programme

• Aurum Resources report drilling results from an ongoing 30,000m programme aimed at expanding the 0.87moz Napie Gold Project, Cote d’Ivoire.
• At the 0.54moz Tchaga deposit, drilling returned highlights of:
  • 5m at 10g/t Au from 209m
  • 50m at 0.62g/t Au from 363m
  • 11m at 4.5g/t Au from 73m
  • 36.7m at 0.66g/t Au from 93m
  • 6m at 3.8g/t Au from 226m
• Aurum is aiming to drill 130,000m of drilling at both Napie and Boundiali this year.
• The Company expects to report two MRE updates for the Boundiali and Napie projects in 1Q26.
• A Boundiali PFS is also due for 1Q26.

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) 7.68p, Mkt Cap £58m – Ghana government to take further consideration on Ewoyaa Mining Lease

• Atlantic Lithium report the Parliament of Ghana has temporarily withdrawn the Mining Lease from consideration to allow for further consultation in respect of Ghana's current mining code and the application of royalties.
• Ewoyaa is Ghana’s most advanced lithium project and the government wishes to work out the best way forward to deliver on the nation’s critical minerals objectives.
• Management remain confident that ratification of the Mining Lease will be forthcoming in accordance with due parliamentary process
• Côte d'Ivoire: Recent exploration in the Ivory Coast shows lithium in spodumene in outcropping pegmatites and float samples.
• The Agboville and Rubino prospects indicate potential for new lithium development.
• Management are well versed in the discovery and definition of lithium properties.
• While these new prospects are some way off Mineral Resource definition it is possible that Atlantic may be able to move faster on their development than on the Ewoyaa mining license in Ghana.
• Spodumene prices have more than doubled since their low levels in Augus to ~US$1,125/t today.
• Chinese producers and consumers see a 60-80% rise in Stationary Storage demand driving new growth in Li-ion batteries next year.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Atlantic Lithium

Blencowe Resources (BRES LN) 6.95p, Mkt Cap £29m – Additional funds to progress the Orom Cross graphite project, Uganda

• Blencowe Resources has raised £3m by placing ~42.9m shares at a price of 7p/share.
• We estimate that the additional shares represent ~9% of the enlarged company.
• The additional funds, which were raised at “no discount to the closing market price on 10 December 2025” will be used to progress the Orom Cross graphite project in Uganda “toward Phase 1 (P1) production readiness … [as well as to advance] … commercial and offtake discussions … financing due diligence, site visits and engagement processes with development finance institutions, strategic partners and government-backed funding bodies”.
• Commenting on the new funding, which follows the recent mineral resource update and feasibility study for Orom Cross, Executive Chairman, Cameron Pearce, said that it “provides Blencowe with additional flexibility and momentum as we move decisively into the financing and development phase”
• He also commented that the “DFS has materially strengthened the Company's position, broadening our access to capital and counterparties and enabling us to raise funds on improved terms”.
• The DFS, covering an initial 15 year mine life at a production rate of 20,000tpa of TGC concentrates from mid-2027 envisages that capital expenditure of US$40m, followed by US$120m for a second phase raising production 70ktpa of concentrates  plus 20,000tpa of USPG (uncoated spheronised purified graphite) will deliver an NPV10% of US$1.09bn and an IRR of 96%.
• Blencowe Resources has previously indicated that it aims to achieve initial production in H1 2027.

Conclusion: Additional funding should maintain the momentum at Orom Cross where the company expects to deliver initial graphite production in H1 2027.

Cerro de Pasco (CDPR CN) C$0.47, Mkt Cap C$277m – Advancing studies for reprocessing of Quiulacocha tailings

• Cerro de Pasco, who hold the Quiulacocha Tailings Reprocessing project in Peru, provide an update.
• The Company is progressing the technical, environmental, and permitting work on the project.
• CdP has drilled 40 sonic holes to confirm metal grades and continuity, with Phase 2 drilling set to get underway and support the deliver of an MRE for Quiulacocha tailings.
• Mineralogy and metallurgical studies are being conducted to deliver an economic flowsheet for recovering metals into marketable products.
• Company is also conducting studies on re-mining and storage sites, with initial tests suggesting the tailings can be dredged and pumped economically.
• Metallurgical programme completion is due 1Q26.

East Star Resources (EST LN) 3.55p, Mkt Cap £13m – Development path for Verkhuba

·      East Star Resources confirms that it has signed a binding Heads of Agreement expected to lead to the development of the Verkhuba copper deposit in Kazakhstan.

·      The agreement, with the Hong Kong based private process engineering and contracting company Xinhai Mining Services, sets a framework for Xinhai to acquire up to 70% of the project over five stages:

• Investment of A$1.5m for resource definition drilling earns a 15% interest; and
• Funding of a “feasibility study sufficient for Kazakhstan mining licence application” increases the interest to 20%; and
• Funding of “detailed engineering and design work” increases the Xinhai interest to 30%; and
• “Transfer of ownership (Bill of Lading) of construction equipment” to the Joint Venture Company takes Xinhai to 51%; and
• Xinhai acquires a 70% interest when it commissions “a 1 million tonne per annum capacity mining and processing project”.

·      Welcoming the opportunity to derisk and progress the development of Verkhuba “without further dilution at the Company level … [CEO, Alex Walker said that Xinhai’s involvement also] … allows East Star to reconcentrate its efforts on making its next discovery as we aim to bring more gold and copper projects to development”.

·      Mr. Walker confirmed that East Star Resources “retains 100% of its other Rudny Altai Belt VMS licences incorporating the Rulikha Deposit and exploration areas, as well as the Snowy, Piket, and Judzha licences in Karaganda which are prospective for porphyry and epithermal mineralisation”.

Conclusion: East Star Resources’ agreement with Xinhai Mining moves Verkhuba onto a path for development while East Star can focus on the exploration of its other projects

Great Southern Copper (GSCU LN) 2.5p, Mkt Cap £18m – Cerro Negro drilling enhances the potential scale of Mostaza

• Great Southern Copper reports that the first three holes of its latest, Phase III drilling at Cerro Negro project in Chile have identified copper rich lenses within the Mostaza Lens 2 zone “indicating potential for a "stacked" system and expanding the potential scale of the Mostaza deposit”.
• The drilling has also shown a “New base metal lens with highly anomalous silver-lead-zinc … in the Mostaza Lens 2 zone”.
• The company highlights:
  • A 6.32m wide zone at an average grade of 1.39% copper and 98.2g/t silver from 82.3m depth in hole DD-029, including 0.69m, from 87.93m depth at a grade of 9.76% copper and 716g/t silver; and
  • Multiple intersections in hole DD-031 of 7.2m averaging 2.58% copper and 188.7g/t silver from 90.4m depth, including 1.78m averaging 4.02% copper and 271g/t silver from 90.4m as well as 2.15m averaging 2.45% copper and 189.4g/t silver from 110.9m depth.
• The company says that “Within the Lens 3 - 5 zone, DD026 and DD030 confirm continuation of the mineralised trend southward, with lens-style alteration and mineralisation consistent with extensions of the Mostaza system” including
  • A 0.77m wide intersection in hole DD-026 which average 2.23% copper and 92.5g/t silver from 29.93m depth as well as 0.74m grading 1.98% copper and 94.1g/t silver from 66.1m depth and 0.5m at 1.09% copper and 6.4g/t silver from 41m depth and a single meter at 38m depth grading 0.91% copper and 26g/t silver.
• “Visual oxide and sulphide mineralisation intersected in scout reverse circulation ("RC") drilling one kilometre ("km") along trend south of Mostaza, indicating strong continuity of the system along the Mostaza Fault Zone” with assay results pending.
• CEO, Sam Garrett, said that the results of the Phase III drilling so far show the “strength and continuity of the copper-silver system at Cerro Negro … [and that] … the recent drilling at Mostaza has successfully extended high-grade mineralisation both along strike and down plunge, with the discovery of new mineralised lenses suggesting a multiple stacked lens architecture to the system - a feature that materially enhances the potential scale of the deposit”.
• He said that Great Southern Copper’s “technical understanding of the system is improving rapidly, and these results give us increasing confidence in the growing potential of the broader Cerro Negro mineralised trend”.

Conclusion: Further drilling at Cerro Negro is showing the possibility of a stacked series of mineralised lenses which, if verified, could enhance the overall scale of the project.

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) 0.62p, Mkt Cap £22m – Funding for Victoria Falls Stock Exchange listing

• Kavango Resources reports the raising of US$373,323 in Zimbabwe as part of their new listing on the VFEX ‘Victoria Falls Stock Exchange’.
• The 27,651,514 new shares will be transferred to the VFEX and will start trading on 16 December 2025.
• Funds will be used for further exploration in Zimbabwe and general working capital.
• Nightshift: Kavango recently published a 20,000oz Mineral Resource Estimate for the Nightshift open pit including:
  • 421kt at 0.78g/t Au for 11koz Au Indicated
  • 273kt at 0.98g/t Au for 9koz Au inferred
  • 694kt at 0.86g/t Au for 20koz Au total
• The team are now looking to build an upgraded 300tpd process plant at Bill’s Luck, which lies 800m to the east of Nightshift.
• Bill’s Luck:  Drilling at the Bill’s Luck mine also supports expansion of the current underground operation
• Kavango is looking to work up a new mineral resource at Bill’s Luck where recent drilling shows parallel Main Reef structures.
• Drill results include:
  • 2.2m at 5.1g/t Au from 28m depth (inc. 20.5g/t Au) in the Hangingwall Reef
  • 2.8m at 13.7g/t Au from 134m (inc. 46.7g/t Au over 0.5m and 24.7g/t Au over 0.5m in the Main Reef
  • 8m at 8.1g/t Au from 159m depth (inc. 18.8g/t Au from 0.63m, 34g/t Au from 1m and 31g/t Au from 0.4m)
• The team plan to continue shaft sinking at Bill’s Luck to extend the current mining operations.

*An SP Angel Analyst holds shares in Kavango

Lindian Resources (LIN AU) A$0.36, Mkt Cap A$608m – Kangankunde REE Project development update

• The Company awarded all major non process infrastructure contracts for the Kangankunde REE Project in Malawi.
• Construction works already commenced.
• The contract for the development of the power line corridor has been also awarded.
• Delivery milestones set ahead of maiden production targeted for late 2026.

Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) 52p, Mkt Cap £179m – The HyProMag Texas Facility lease agreed

BUY

• HyProMag USA, a 50/50 JV Maginito/CoTec (Maginito is owned 79/21 Mkango/CoTec), agreed a lease for the proposed REE magnet recycling and manufacturing facility in Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas.
• The site is located next to critical infrastructure including a rail link and the Alliance airport.
• The facility is targeted for commissioning mid-2027, subject to final permitting and financing
• A fly over of the facilities location can be found at https://youtu.be/J8RHkZSfo0Y

Conclusion: The lease marks another step towards establishing the first commercial scale production of recycled magnets using HPMS tech in the US.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Mkango Resources

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) 0.03p, Mkt Cap £3m – Woes deepen as liabilities mount at the Zulu lithium plant, Zimbabwe

• Yesterday Premier African Minerals disclosed 30th November 2025 “unaudited total group liabilities (including amounts due to the Offtake Partner under the Offtake and Prepayment Agreement of $46.568 million including unsettled interest of $11.9 million) amounted to $62.143 million, of which group trade creditors including unpaid salaries amounted to approximately $15.035 million”.
• The announcement acknowledges that “Premier has limited funds and must secure additional financing arrangements to meet its payment commitments and obligations as they fall due … [and says that there is] … no guarantee that the further funding will be secured on terms acceptable to the Company”.
• It also confirms that “in the event that further funding arrangements cannot be secured within the required timeframe and on acceptable terms, this could have a material adverse effect on both Zulu Lithium and the financial position of the Company as a whole which could cast significant doubt on the Group's ability to continue as a going concern”.

Conclusion: Premier African Minerals has struggled to commission its troubled Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe and yesterday’s announcement provides little comfort that the situation is tenable.

Robex Resources (RXR CN) C$4.4, Mkt Cap C$1.22bn – Amended agreement to acquire Predictive Discovery

• Robex, who had agreed to acquire Predictive Discovery+ in October, have returned with an amended agreement.
• Perseus had offered A$0.778/sh for Predictive last week, valuing the Company at $1.4bn.
• Robex has now increased their terms, with Robex shareholders receiving 7.862 PDI shares, down from 8.667 PDI shares previously.
• Predictive management stated they ‘received clear written from feedback from several of our largest shareholders indicating their support of the Robex merger over the Perseus acquisition.’
• Robex management highlight the agreement sees a combined company ‘well placed to deliver meaningful returns and build one of West Africa’s leading gold producers with the creation of a tier-1 gold mining hub in Guinea.’
• This reduces the Robex stake in the pro-forma entity to 46.5% from 49% previously.
• The merger envisages the Robex team, led by Matt Wilcox, building PDI’s Bankan mine funded via cash flows from Kiniero, which is currently ramping up.
• The pro-forma entity sees a pathway to 400kozpa of production by 2029.

Conclusion: Robex has come back for a second go at Predictive, who accepted an all-stock offer from Perseus valuing the company at $1.4bn on 3rd October. Robex has a proven mine building team and is looking to leverage their recent experience in Guinea with Kiniero to build the tier one, 250kozpa Bankan project. We would not be surprised to see Perseus come back for a second go, potentially adding a cash element to their previous all-share offer. The takeover battle emphasises the lack of high-quality African gold assets still undeveloped, and we continue to suspect Kefi*, WIA Gold+ and Turaco+ will be of interest to cash-rich producers looking to expand their production profiles.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Kefi

+An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Predictive Discovery, WIA Gold and Turaco

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 1.23p, Mkt Cap £31m – Latest Redmoor drilling results

• Strategic Minerals has released assay results from the third hole (Hole CRD-035) of its recently completed nine- hole drilling campaign at the Redmoor project in Cornwall.
• The hole, which was drilled from the same location as the first 2 holes of the programme (CRD-033 and CRD034b) towards 145⁰ at an angle of 54⁰ confirms “the continuity of numerous wide zones of high-grade mineralisation and multiple sub-zones of very high-grade tungsten mineralisation, including copper, tin and silver, throughout the Redmoor SVS” (Sheeted Vein System) which hosts the initial ‘Inferred’ mineral resource of 11.7mt at an average grade of 0.56% tungsten trioxide, 0.16% tin and 0.50% copper released in 2019.
• As with the previous two holes, CRD-035 continues to demonstrate continuity of both the structure and grade of mineralisation and validates Strategic Minerals’ “existing resource model”.
• The company considers this will justify a wider drill spacing for resource definition in future drilling “at a lower overall cost compared to historical assumptions”.
• The company reports intersections in hole CRD-035 including:
  • A 16.00m downhole intersection at an average grade of 0.68% tungsten trioxide (WO3) , 0.10% tin and 0.86% copper (reported as 0.99% on a WO3 equivalent basis) from a depth of 420.00m; and
  • A 3.11m intersection at an average grade of 0.50% WO3, 0.02% tin and 0.24% copper (reported as 0.58% on a WO3 equivalent basis) from a depth of 447.00m; and
  • A 15.00m intersection at an average grade of 0.23% WO3, 0.12% tin and 0.42% copper (reported as 0.44% on a WO3 equivalent basis) from a depth of 453.00m; and
  • A 4.59m intersection at an average grade of 0.23% WO3, 0.01% tin and 0.76% copper (reported as 0.44% on a WO3 equivalent basis) from a depth of 472.08m.
• These zones each contain shorter higher-grade sections and, as in the previous two holes of the recent drilling programme, the company “confirms elevated silver values within the copper-rich zones” including 67.2g/t silver over a 0.5m intersection from a depth of 474.40m.
• Strategic Minerals says that it will assess the significance of the silver after “metallurgical testworks and resource modelling … [but that currently] … there is no assumption … that silver will be recoverable or economically reportable in the Mineral Resource”.
• Dennis Rowland, Managing Director of the operating subsidiary, Cornwall Resources, said that the “Results from CRD035 … continue to highlight Redmoor’s high-grade nature in comparison to almost all global tungsten projects”.
• As well as testing the “short-spaced continuity … [of the mineralisation at Redmoor, Strategic Minerals’ director, Mark Burnett, said that the recent drilling] … had two further purposes: infilling a portion of the Redmoor exploration target and increasing the resource footprint; and twinning 1980s drillholes to enable the inclusion of these historical drillholes in the upcoming resource model update”.
• Mr. Burnett explained that if these other objectives are achieved, “we anticipate further resource growth and additional efficiencies for future infill drilling as part of a PFS programme”.
• In our view, significant resource expansion and upgrading of at least part of the 2019 MRE would justify a detailed reassessment of the October 2020 scoping study and economic projection for Redmoor, which was subsequently revised in November 2021, and envisaged a 600,000tpa underground mine extracting a total of 7.3mt of ore over a 10-year mine life.

Conclusion: Strategic Minerals’ latest drilling results continue to demonstrate continuity of the SVS mineralisation at Redmoor which has previously been shown to be wider than previous modelling projected. When all the assay results from the drilling are available, they will contribute to a new mineral resource estimate which should underpin future exploration and development plans.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Strategic Minerals

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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