SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 10.12.25

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Anglo American (AAL LN) – Shareholders approve merger with Teck Resources

Amaroq Minerals (AMRQ LN) – Drilling from Nanoq gold target

Critical Metals (CRML US) – Term Sheet for a downstream REE facility in Romania

First Class Metals (FCM LN) – Drilling progress at the North Hemlo prospect, Ontario

Great Quest Minerals/Ongwe Minerals* (GQ CN) SUSPENDED – C$4.5m raised to begin drilling in Namibia as RTO nears completion

Meteoric Resources (MEI AU) - Fist Caldeira MREC

Santa Barbara (SBM AU) – Deal with Lingbao to advance Simberi gold project, PNG

Silver ($61.5/oz) leads gold ($4,195/oz) higher as speculative traders build positions amid Fed

• Silver has posted a strong rally vs gold, up 4.9% the past week and 22% the past month.
• Meanwhile, gold is flat on the week and up 1.9% over the past month.
• In our view, the outperformance from silver reflects speculative money flowing into a more levered play following gold’s pullback.
• Gold speculators helped push the metal to record highs in mid-October, but a sharp reversal to <$4,000/oz likely flushed some shorter term capital out of the market.
• Meanwhile, silver ETF inflows have increased by c.187moz ytd, whilst industrial consumption is reportedly down 2%yoy.
• Traders have reduced rate cut expectations, pushing yields higher, with the 10 year rising above 4.2% this morning.
• Alongside speculative flows, silver is benefiting from a tight physical market, having seen a supply squeeze in October.
• Bloomberg reports Chinese silver inventories are sitting at multi-decade lows.
• The Silver Institute expects 2025 to mark the 5th annual year of supply deficit, albeit considerably less than 2024.
• Whilst gold has been steady over the past month, we see this as a period of consolidation, akin to the extended rangebound period c.$3,330/oz over the summer.

Copper ($11,633/t) resumes rally as weak global demand is offset by supply crunch

• Copper prices have pared yesterday’s losses, sitting just off record highs made last week.
• Tariff uncertainty continues to wreak havoc in global copper markets, with Mercuria’s recent $500m raid on LME stocks adding to short-term supply constraints.
• Reuters reports a third of registered LME inventory was cancelled last week, expected to be shipped to the US to take advantage of COMEX premiums.
• The premium reflects a continued risk of tariffs from the unpredictable White House.
• Trump has deferred a copper production extension tariff decision to mid-2026.
• Reuters reports US imports of refined copper doubled yoy to 1.2mt between January-August.
• This has left a shortage of copper in high-demand regions like Southeast Asia and China.
• Chinese producers are shipping product into LME warehouses to take advantage of higher export prices.
• Global copper inventories rose to their highest level since 2020, suggesting there is no short-term global copper shortage.
• The Chinese smelter group CSPT has agreed to reduce output by 10% from the largest 10 operations, supporting prices.

Fed caution slows copper gains

• Fed comments took some of the wind out of Copper’s sails as caution over the prospect of rate cuts and the potential for rate increases worries investors.

Conclusion: Copper prices are being lifted by US-tariff uncertainty, pushing metal into COMEX warehouses from LME and Asian hubs. This has coincided with several major supply disruptions in 2025, which are expected to contribute to a deficit of c.300-500kt in 2026. Whilst supply is expected to rebound somewhat in 2027, there remains concerns over delays to Grasberg and Kamoa Kakula’s rebound, alongside potential unforeseen disruptions. Manufacturing demand is flatlining globally and the copper remains vulnerable to a tariff policy shift. However, we see supply as the key theme in copper, with the market balance hinging on the successful ramp up of several large-scale operations. Any delays or disruptions to these schedules should add further market tightness and push prices beyond the current record levels. Project development timelines continue to slow, CAPEX inflation persists and grade decline remains a theme across Chile and Peru.

IG TV Commodity Corner (09/12/25):  https://www.youtube.com/live/E8IBOXDwYKs?si=Ie8TQjY0Xeuyg4j1&t=6417

     (02/12/25):  https://www.youtube.com/live/XJDYYt31w_g?si=8lB4TP7a7pIGHrZ4&t=6672 

Economics

US – Market awaits FOMC meeting rate decision and 2026 outlook.

• A 25bp cut to 3.50-3.75%, a third consecutive one, looks to be a done deal now.
• Dot plot to be also released later today offering a glimpse into the Fed rate outlook for next year.
• September report showed median estimate only for a one 25bp rate cut in 2026.

Donad Trump to launch a final round of interviews for Fed chair row with four candidates in place including WH economic advisor Kevin Hassett. (FT)

• The officials say that Hassett remains in pole position to replace Powell in May, although, things may change.

Beijing is set to limit access to Nvidia H200 chips despite President Trump giving the Company permission to ship to China. (FT)

• Chinese authorities seem growing increasingly concerned with nation’s reliance on Western tech and are determined to stimulate development of domestic substitutes.

China – Consumer prices rebounded easing fears of a deflation led by food costs raising sharply higher.

• Core measure came in higher than the headline CPI climbing 1.2%yoy.
• Producer prices remained in negative territory for more than three years now.

Chinese property stocks jumped on expectations for policy stimulus from Beijing and hopes of a resolution in China Vanke’s debt talks. (Bloomberg)

• Vanke is meeting creditors today to win support for a bond extension plan and to avert a default.
• Vanke is one of the largest developers in the country active in over 60 cities in China.
• Vanke shares closed 13% higher in Hong Kong today, although were still down 29% YTD and ~90% from 2020 highs.
• CPI (%yoy, Nov / Oct / Est): 0.7 / 0.2 / 0.7
• Ppi (%yoy, Nov / Oct / Est): -2.2 / -2.1 / -2.0

China vehicle sales fall for second consecutive month, EV sales still growing

• China retail vehicle sales were down around 8% yoy, the second consecutive month of decline, according to figures released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA)
• The decline comes as automaker's discounts failed to make up for the end of trade-in subsidies, which gave consumers up to 20,000 yuan ($2,800) to scrap an older car for a new fuel efficient vehicle.
• ICE vehicles saw a massive 22% decline, whereas NEVs saw sales rise 4.2% for the month.
• NEVs reached a penetration rate of 59.3% in November.
• Export of Chinese made vehicles reached record highs in November, up 52% yoy.

IMF raises China growth forecast to 5% for this year following strong exports

Reinforcement and development of policies to ramp up domestic demand and strengthen crosscyclical policy initiatives

• The IMF has raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 following China’s record $1tn trade surplus
• Consumer prices rose at their fastest pace in around two years at 0.7% in November vs 0.2% in October with a record 180bn parcels delivered YTD
• Sales were driven higher during the super golden week public holiday with food prices rising 0.2% in November vs -2.9% in October.
• Factory-gate prices continue to fall 2.2% yoy with PPI falling for a 38th straight month in November though the rate of decline has decreased.
• ‘Anti Involution’ policies designed to tackle over-competition in selected sectors are seen turning prices higher.
• Solar panel and raw material production are being targeted to start.
• Price discounting to gain access into new markets along with excess capacity has led Industrial profits 5.5% lower yoy in October
• Investors are looking for further direction from the annual Central Economic Work Conference with further ‘cross-cyclical’ stimulus
• Commentators are looking for tech and discretionary spending to do well as the authorities stimulate consumer spending to counteract moderating demand.
• Growth in EVs has pulled back despite golden week sales drives, suggesting consumers may be holding out for further incentives in the Lunar New Year holiday.
• China now sees ongoing industrial growth along with further development of domestic demand as key priorities for next year
• Cross-cyclical stimulus will be used to stabilise and support along with gradual, mild stimulating policies.
• The politburo highlighted no major policy developments with no major changes in direction.
• The authorities are looking at services for further support to reduce risks to employment and further property declines.

Ukraine – President Trump gave Zelenskyy days to respond to a proposed peace deal with Russia aiming for a ceasefire by Christmas. (FT)

• The deal involves territorial losses in exchange for unspecified US security guarantees.
• Zelenskyy met with European counterparts at the beginning of the week aiming to prepare a response and potentially an alternative plan.
• “The Ukrainian and European components have already been worked out in more detail, and we are ready to present them to our partners in America,” Zelenskyy said.

DRC – M23 rebels advancing on Uvira in Eastern DRC extending and consolidating their territory

• Uvira lies close to the border with Burundi at the top of Lake Tanganyika around 320km south of Goma
• The M23 captured Luvungi just to the north of Uvira on Monday with some 200,000 people have been displaced by the M23 rebels advance.

Currencies

US$1.1650/eur vs 1.1644/eur previous. Yen 156.64/$ vs 156.36/$. SAr 17.015/$ vs 17.039/$. $1.332/gbp vs $1.333/gbp. 0.665/aud vs         0.664/aud. CNY 7.064/$ vs 7.070/$.

Dollar Index 99.08 vs 99.12 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,204/oz vs US$4,187/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.8moz vs 97.9moz previous

Platinum US$1,677/oz vs US$1,650/oz previous

Palladium US$1,507/oz vs US$1,472/oz previous

Silver US$61.5/oz vs US$58.2/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,975/oz vs US$7,975/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$11,598/t vs US$11,503/t previous

Aluminium US$2,869/t vs US$2,860/t previous

Nickel US$14,810/t vs US$14,830/t previous

Zinc US$3,098/t vs US$3,095/t previous

Lead US$1,983/t vs US$1,989/t previous

Tin US$40,620/t vs US$39,570/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$62.1/bbl vs US$62.4/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices fell after the API estimated a 4.8mb w/w oil inventory draw (-1.7mb exp) in the USA, with the EIA’s December STEO also forecasting a 0.2mb/d m/m increase to global oil supply growth (+2.9mb/d y/y) and a 0.2mb/d m/m decrease to global oil demand growth (+1.1mb/d y/y) in 2025, leading to an estimated 4.1mb/d surplus in 2026.
• US Henry Hub prices slumped for a second consecutive day on the back of medium-term forecasts for warmer than normal weather in the Lower-48, with the EIA forecasting average natural gas prices of $4/mmBtu in 2026.
• European energy prices were edged lower as France's nuclear generation rose 2% w/w to 87% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.

Natural Gas €26.9/MWh vs €27.2/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $76.3/lb vs $76.3/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$102.6/t vs US$101.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$455.8/t vs US$455.0/t

HCC FOB Australia US$204.0/t vs US$204.7/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$109.3/t vs US$110.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$52,220/t vs US$52,220/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$82,533/t vs US$82,958/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$12,883/t vs US$12,872/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,125/t vs US$1,125/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$768/mtu vs US$763/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$97/lb vs US$96/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.2/lb vs US$5.2/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.2/kg vs US$24.2/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$261/t vs US$265/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,111/t vs US$1,110/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$357.5/t vs US$357.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

Company news

Anglo American (AAL LN) 2,937p, Mkt Cap £34bn – Shareholders approve merger with Teck Resources

·        Anglo American reports the formal approval of both its own and Teck Resources’ shareholders for the planned merger to create a copper-focussed entity to be known as Anglo Teck.

·        Over 99% of the Anglo American shareholders voting approved the transaction with ~80% of the Teck Resources shareholders also supporting the merger.

·        Completion of the transaction “remains subject to conditions customary for a transaction of this nature including approval under the Investment Canada Act and competition and regulatory approvals in various jurisdictions globally”.

·        Chief Executive, Duncan Wanblad, said that the new company will offer “more than 70% exposure to copper … [bringing] … together the best of both companies … [to create a] … global critical minerals champion, headquartered in Canada, … underpinned by a world-class portfolio of assets with exceptional growth optionality”.

·        He said that “we will continue to work closely with Teck and the regulatory authorities across various jurisdictions during the course of 2026 to obtain the necessary approvals to progress towards completion”.

• Previous statements indicate that Anglo Teck is targeting copper production of 1.35mtpa by 2027 driven by:
  • Collahuasi, 245.8kt attributable production, 44% ownership, Chile,
  • Quebrada Blanca, 207.8kt production, 60% ownership. Chile
  • Quellaveco, Peru, 306.3kt production, 60% ownership Peru
  • Los Bronces, Chile, 172.4kt production, 50.1% ownership Chile
  • Highland Valley Copper, 102.4kt production, 100% ownership Canada
  • Antamina, 96.1kt attributable production, 22.5% ownership Peru

Conclusion: Shareholder approval leaves the planned merger with Teck Resources still to obtain regulatory approval in a number of jurisdictions which may be a relatively protracted process.

Amaroq Minerals (AMRQ LN) 96.5p, Mkt Cap £392m – Drilling from Nanoq gold target

• Amaroq reports drilling results from their 2025 exploration programme at Nanoq.
• The 27 hole, 4,807m diamond drilling programme was aimed at boosting understanding of the geological model ahead of larger-scale resource drilling.
• Nanoq lies 120km to the northeast of the Nalunaq mine, hosting a folded sequence of volcanic and sedimentary rocks.
• Drilling tested a 600m strike length and averaged 3.3m at 10g/t Au at vertical depths of up to 70m.
• Highlight intercepts include:
  • NAN2510: 9m at 3.8g/t Au from 30m
  • NAN2515: 3.7m at 11g/t Au from 13m
  • NAN2517: 4.9m at 19.6g/t Au from 73m (inc. 0.8m at 82.6g/t Au)
  • NAN2524: 7.4m at 6.7g/t Au from 70m (inc. 1.3m at 34g/t Au)
  • NAN2525: 1.5m at 187g/t Au from 9m
  • NAN2525: 5.8m from 9.4g/t from 30m
  • NAN2527: 6.8m at 3.8g/t Au from 41m
• Additionally, several anomalous copper intersections were recorded, with intervals ranging between 0.5m-1m at grades ranging from 0.33%-1.12% Cu
• Management notes high-grade intersections alongside broader zones of mineralisation.
• The Company will now ‘fast-track resource drilling,’ targeting a maiden MRE in the near term.
• Management also believes mineralisation remains open at depth and along strike, with additional parallel structures lying to the west.
• Amaroq has collected several 100kg bulk metallurgical surface from drill core and outcrop, and has begun initial metallurgical test work.
• Met testwork will examine recovery characteristics and the potential to supplement the Nalunaq plant with Nanoq material

Critical Metals (CRML US) US$10, Mkt Cap US$1.1bn – Term Sheet for a downstream REE facility in Romania

• The Company reports the Term Sheet for a 50/50 JV with a state owned uranium processor for REE treatment facility for Tanbreez concentrates in Romania.
• Fabrica de Prelucrare a Concentratelor de Uraniu S.R.L. (FPCU) of Romania is a subsidiary of a state owned nuclear energy company, Nuclearelectrica.
• FPCU has decades of expertise in refining, conversion, hydrometallurgy, and the production of nuclear fuel materials.
• The term sheet envisages a life of mine offtake for 50% of REE concentrate produced at Tanbreez delivered to a future facility.
• Concentrates reported to be delivered at “mutually agreed competitive market terms”.
• CRML is reported to retain a 50% interest in the JV on a carried interest bases with no capital contributions for plant development costs.
• Tanbreez REE Project FS is expected to be released next year.
• Commenting on the announcement CRML reports:
  • “This is a monumental game-changer for CRML and the entire Western world.”
  • “By capturing immense downstream value from Tanbreez concentrate, we’re not just building a plant — we’re dismantling China’s stranglehold on rare earths and empowering Europe with independent, secure supplies for its defense and national security needs”
• Both CRML and the Romanian government will now apply for the recently announced €3.5B package for the supply of REE to the EU.

First Class Metals (FCM LN) 1.85p, Mkt Cap £4.0m – Drilling progress at the North Hemlo prospect, Ontario

1. First Class Metals reports the completion of nine drillholes across the 3.5km long ‘Dead Otter’ trend at its North Hemlo prospect in Ontario.
2. The initial drilling tested four priority targets “providing early geological coverage across multiple prospective zones” along the trend which hosts a grab sample yielding 19.6g/t gold described as “the highest known assay from a grab sample ever recorded on the North Limb of Hemlo”.
3. Assays from the drilling programme are expected to be available in the New Year but CEO, Marc Sale, described the drilling so far as “both technically and logistically successful … [and described] … the geological features observed to date … [as reinforcing] … our confidence in the Dead Otter trend as a compelling gold target within the North Hemlo Project”.
4. The campaign has been subject to “inclement as well as challenging weather conditions … [and though it is] … currently paused, will recommence next week”.
5. “The drilling contract minimum of 700m drilling will be surpassed at the completion of the programme”.

Conclusion: Initial drilling on the Dead Otter trend shows encouraging geology with assay results expected to be available in the New Year.

Great Quest Minerals/Ongwe Minerals* (GQ CN) SUSPENDED – C$4.5m raised to begin drilling in Namibia as RTO nears completion

• Great Quest Minerals, who is currently undertaking an RTO by Lotus Gold, provides an update.
• The Company has received C$4.5m in subscriptions for a non-brokered private placement.
• Management reports the RTO is nearing completion.
• Funds will be used for a large-scale regional soil sampling programme and bed rock drilling programme over the Namibian projects.
• Drilling at Khorixas and Omatjete will begin imminently.
• Management expects to provide an update on the 2026 exploration programme following completion of the RTO.
• The Khorixas Gold Project has seen 570m of diamond drilling, returning highlights of 18m at 1.7g/t Au from 74m at the BK2 Target.
• the Khorixas K17 target has returned rock chip samples inc. 16% Cu, 21g/t Au, 38g/t Au and 490ppm U.
• The Omatjete, which lies along strike from the Kokoseb discovery, hosts a large arsenic anomaly over 3.5km to 2.2km.
• Management suggests a strong correlation between arsenic and gold, having utilised the technique for their Otjikoto and Twin Hills discoveries in Namibia.

Conclusion: The new Ongwe management team have made several successful gold discoveries in Namibia, with their Twin Hills project sold to Yintai for C$368m following a bidding war with Dundee. They are looking to recreate their success in Namibia and have secured a large-land package in the Damara Belt. We look forward to the 2026 Exploration Programme and imminent completion of the RTO.

*SP Angel analysts hold shares in the Ongwe RTO

Meteoric Resources (MEI AU) A$0.16, Mkt Cap A$417m - Fist Caldeira MREC

• The Company announced production of maiden MREC at the Caldeira Pilot Plant in Pocos de Caldas, Brazil.
• All major unit processes have been successfully commissioned, including scrubbing, leaching with ammonium sulfate, CCD, spent-clay filtration, MREC precipitation, and water treatment.
• Pilot operations confirm the flowsheet and allow optimisation.
• Data will feed directly into the DFS underway with Ausenco.
• Once optimised, MREC product from the Pilot Plant to be provided to existing and potential offtake partners.
• The facility to be used for personnel training as well.
• With low-grade commissioning complete, the plant is transitioning to typical ~4,000ppm TREO, enabling optimisation of reagent use, product purity, recovery, and testing of downstream separation options (e.g., solvent extraction, Flash Joule Heating).

Santa Barbara (SBM AU) A$0.56, Mkt Cap A$611m – Deal with Lingbao to advance Simberi gold project, PNG

• Santa Barabra provides several updates on its Simberi Papua New Guinea project.
• Santa Barbara has agreed terms with Lingbao, who will acquire a 50% interest in the Santa Barbara JV, which will own an 80% interest in Simberi.
• Lingbao will pay A$370m for the 40% interest in the Project.
• The Company reports Kumul Minerals, the PNG State Nominee for PNG’s share in mineral projects, has acquired a 20% interest in Simberi for A$100m.
• Santa Barbara will retain an 80% stake in the project and will be manager of the JV.
• As a result of the two agreements, Santa Barabra will be fully funded for its CAPEX requirements for the Simberi Expansion Project.
• Lingbao holds a gold concentrate smelter and is an active gold mine operator, with assets located in China and Kyrgyzstan, producing 200koz in 2025 from mined operations.
• The Lingbao agreement is due for completion 3QFY26.
• Santa Barbara also released highlights from the Simberi Feasibility Study last night:
  • Reserves: 43.1mt at 1.8g/t Au and 3.3g/t Ag for 2.5moz Au and 4.6moz Ag.
  • Pre-expansion capital of $59m, development CAPEX of $275m, SUSEX of $116m.
  • Average payable annual production of 150koz over 13 year LOM
  • LOM AISC of $1,330/oz
  • Post-Tax NPV8 of $1bn and IRR of 79% at $3,000/oz Au and $30/oz Ag
  • Post-Tax NPV8 of $1.8bn and IRR of 243% at $4,000/oz Au and $50/oz Ag
  • FID due 3QFY26, post Mining Licence extension

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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