USA Rare Earths (USAR US) – $1.6bn LoI agreed with US Government
West African Resources (WAF AU) – Strong cashflows as discussions continue with Burkina Faso Government
Gold ($5,280/oz) extends gain as dollar sinks lower and US Treasuries weaken
Gold prices have risen 9% over the past week, touching $5,311/oz in the spot market.
The move follows a sharp move lower in the dollar index, which has fallen 2.6% over the past week.
Trump’s comments that the dollar is ‘doing great’ despite the slide may have fuelled further flows into gold.
Metals rallied across the board overnight, with siler up 6.4% to $113/oz, and base metals also climbing.
Investors are seeking de-dollarisation trades, with emerging markets, commodities and precious metals all benefiting.
This is being reflected in higher ETF holdings, with global gold holdings rising above 100.5moz for the first time in several years.
Renewed tariff threats from Trump on South Korea, alongside a move to block a Canada-China trade deal, are further fuelling safe haven bids.
Investors are seeking alternative safe havens to US Treasuries, which have sold off again, amid an unpredictable US foreign policy.
Concerns over Trump’s influence over the Fed are also pushing investors into gold, with a new Fed Chair expected to be announced soon.
Investors buy gold when they consider their alternatives are too risky or are going down
Gold acts as a default currency but the gold lease rate is close to zero so there is not much chance to earn a return off your gold other than capital gain.
Tether, the Stablecoin issuer, is reported to now hold >140 tons of gold and is seen buying more than 1 ton (32,000ozs) a week with gold stored in Swiss bunker.
The news supports our view of Crypto holders switching into gold on Quantum vulnerability and broad-spread buying of gold by a huge number of investors.
Equities continue to rise with US and European equity futures also looking stronger. HK is also +2.6% higher this morning
Dollar index has fallen sharply to 96.04 vs 97.23 previous – The US dollar index has fallen 11% yoy - this is a sizeable move for the world’s reserve currency.
The dollar index hit 71.8 in March 2008 in the SubPrime crisis. 72.9 in April 201. 89.9 in December 2020 during Covid.
US dollar – The world’s reserve currency is widely seen as going down on Fed Rate cuts, Trump pressuring the Fed Chairman and China and India broadening the use of their currencies.
US Treasuries – The US government will need to offer more treasuries, but Trump as alienated many political leaders and there are less buyers at lower rates than there used to be.
US Equities - AI and other Technology stocks. Strong earnings from the Magnificent 7 and earnings growth from AI stocks appears to support this market for now.
ASML, which makes semiconductors, reported orders far ahead of expectation driven by strong AI demand.
Carry Trade – The Japan carry trade where hedge funds borrow at near-zero interest rates is expected to unwind as the BOJ raises rates making it less profitable to borrow cheap in yen to invest in US Treasuries and other higher-yielding assets.
Iran: concerns over the potential for war with Iran has raised ‘risk-off’ trade. Many Iranian’s may be converting the Rial into gold in case they need to flee the country.
Inflation – gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, largely because governments find it easier to print money than the mining industry mines more gold.
China appears to have released the breaks on commodity input prices having built much of the world’s refining capacity and acquired a significant number of mines.
Raising commodity and feedstock prices will have a knock-on effect driving inflation in China and in the rest of the world.
Conclusion: US interest rates – despite Trump’s protestations, it looks as if the Fed will hold rates with new commodity-driven inflation coming down the line and substantial risk elsewhere in the world.
Base Metals - CTAs seen driving base metals higher with consumers also seen buying longer term but selling into February.
Copper traded up to $13,247/t last night before settling back to $13,228/t with consumers buying out to May 2027.
Tungsten APT price hits $1,390/mtu for 88.5% min quality
US$1.1994/eur vs 1.1856/eur previous. Yen 152.50/$ vs 154.78/$. SAr 15.806/$ vs 16.050/$. $1.381/gbp vs $1.367/gbp. 0.701/aud vs 0.691/aud. CNY 6.945/$ vs 6.957/$.
Dollar Index 96.04 vs 97.23 previous.
Economics
US – The sell off in the US$ accelerated as President Trump he was not concerned with a steep fall in the currency in recent days.
Swiss franc at its strongest since 2015 with gold surging to a new record over $5,300/oz.
Fed to announce rates later today with expectations for no change (3.50-3.75%).
Markets are currently pricing in two 25bp moves for 2026.
Earnings season continues with three of the Magnificent Seven reporting later today including Microsoft, Tesla and Meta.
Japan – The yen appreciated for a third day as Finance Minister said the government will works with the US on currency responses when necessary.
When asked if authorities conducted currency interventions, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said she “will refrain from commenting on movements in the foreign exchange market.
The yen slipped closer to the 152 mark, nearly 4% down from highs of over 159 hit last Friday.
Crude oil prices edged higher after the API estimated an unexpected 0.25mb w/w oil inventory draw to US stocks (+1.45mb exp), with distillate stocks gaining 2mb and gasoline stocks declining by 0.4mb.
European energy prices pulled back from recent highs on above normal wind generation expectations for the next week, with France's nuclear generation increasing 5% w/w to 87% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity and the country’s cumulative 2025 production up 3.1% y/y to 373TWh.
Natural Gas €38.4/MWh vs €40.1/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $91.0/lb vs $89.3/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$103.1/t vs US$103.9/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$466.5/t vs US$466.0/t
HCC FOB Australia US$233.0/t vs US$233.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$110.0/t vs US$110.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$100,068/t vs US$98,820/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$23,541/t vs US$23,645/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,325/t vs US$2,325/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,313/mtu vs US$1,278/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$114/lb vs US$113/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.6/lb vs US$5.4/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.5/kg vs US$24.5/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$261/t vs US$261/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,908/t vs US$2,908/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,130/t vs US$1,128/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$367.5/t vs US$367.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg
EV & Battery news
UK must double EV charger point installations each year to hit 2030 target
The UK must double its annual installations of EV charging points to hit the minimum number the government estimates will be need by 2030 to support the transition to EVs.
There are currently nearly 88,000 charge points in the UK, with around 15,000 installations in 2025, according to an analysis by charging app Zapmap and the Department for Transport.
The government estimates that the UK will need between 250,000 and 550,000 EV charge points by 2030.
To hit the lowest end of this range will require more than 32,000 charge points being installed each year and the higher end would require more than 92,000 a year.
Atalaya Mining has raised £127.3m via placing 12.73m shares at £10/share with additional subscriptions bringing the total raised to £130m.
The company confirms that “Both the Placing and the Retail Offer were significantly oversubscribed, receiving strong support from existing and new investors, allowing the Company to broaden its institutional following and market support”.
CEO, Alberto Lavandeira, said that the funding “represents a significant milestone for Atalaya and will enable us to accelerate our growth projects in Spain, while further strengthening our balance sheet and enhancing our financial flexibility for the development of Touro”.
He welcomed the confidence of investors “in our strategy, our team, and the long‑term value embedded within our portfolio”.
Earlier this month reporting 2025 production performance at the upper end of its guidance range, Atalaya mining indicated 2026 output of 50-54,000t of copper in concentrate with continuing high throughput and continuing grade improvement.
Collective Mining (CNL CN) C$25, Mkt Cap C$2.4bn – 58m at 21g/t Au intercepted at Apollo
Colombian gold explorer Collective reported further results from its Apollo system yesterday.
Two directional DD holes were completed to expand te high-grade Ramp Zone along strike to the north and at depth.
Management has identified mineralisation over >1,400m at Apollo, within the larger Guayabales Project in Caldas, Colombia.
Assay results from the two holes reported yesterday included:
APC143-D3: 58.1m at 21g/t Au and 13g/t Ag from 188m (inc. 6m at 166g/t Au and 90g/t Ag)
APC140-D4: 15m at 5g/t Au and 10g/t Ag from 107m, 3.7m at 4.9g/t Au and 3.4m at 3.5g/t Au
Hole APC143-D3 expands dimensions to 300m along strike by 100m width and 310m vertically.
Company is focused on identifying Ramp Zone style of mineralisation on the margins of the breccia body.
Ramp is classified as a reduced intrusion-related gold system with similarities to Aris’ Marmato Deeps deposit.
Two deep-capacity rigs are due to arrive on site this quarter to ramp up drill-testing.
Company is targeting 100,000m of drilling over 2026, to add to the 166,500m completed to date.
Elevra Lithium (ELV AU) A$7.9, Mkt Cap A$1.3bn – Guidance revised down on lower grades and recoveries
The Company reports 2QFY26 operations update and updated guidance for its lithium operations in Quebec, Canada.
Production down 15%qoq to 44.2kt at 4.9% Li2O (1Q26: 52.0kt at 5.2%)
Lower production and grade attributed to lower recoveries (62%, -7pp qoq) associated with weaker processed grades and higher iron content due to mine sequencing.
Sales were 66.0kt in line with guidance to weight shipments towards December quarter.
Average realised price US$998/t FOB (+27%qoq).
Unit opex US$812/t, slightly down on the US$818/t in the previous quarter.
Cash balance down to US$81m, from US$98m 1QFY26.
Production guidance revised lower following 1HFY26 underperformance.
The ore was sourced from volcanic hosted areas that are richer in iron content (well above the LOM average) and is not representative of broader orebody.
The team is expecting increased grade control drilling and improved ore blending to improve post FY26.
Guidance downgrade is highlighted to refer to near term only.
FY26 (June YE) guidance revised lower:
Production 180-190kt (from 195-210kt before)
Unit opex US$860-880/t ($765-830)
Capex US$26m (unchanged)
Stock is down 14% today.
Fresnillo (FRES LN) 4,154p, Mkt Cap £30.5bn – Robust FY25 with silver in line and gold ahead of guidance
The Company reports 4Q25 and FY25 production results at its operation in Mexico.
FY25 production (attributable):
Silver 48.7moz (-13.5%yoy)
Silver production in line with guidance with the drop attributed to the cessation of mining at San Julian BOD, lower grades, throughput and recoveries at Cienega and lower contribution from the Silverstream.
Gold 600koz (-5.0%)
Gold production ahead of guidance with the decrease driven by lower grades and throughput at Saucito, Fresnillo and Herradura as well as lower contribution from Noche Buena.
Lead 62kt (-6.5%)
Zinc 106kt (-9.2%)
2026 updated production (attributable) guidance includes:
Silver 42.0-46.5moz (from 45.0-51.0moz)
Gold 500-550koz (515-565koz)
Silver Equivalent 82-91moz (from 86-96moz)
Lower guided silver production is expected due to weaker throughput/grades at Fresnillo, lower throughput at Cienega and Saucito.
Lower guided gold production at Herradura due to the stronger than anticipated production during 2025 with some production brought forward by a year from 2026.
2027 silver and gold production guidance unchanged and expected to grow to
Silver 45.0-51.0moz
Gold 535-595koz
Silver Equivalent 88-99moz
Greatland Resources (GGP LN) 693p, Mkt Cap £4,643m – Preliminary December quarter production from Telfer exceeds September quarter performance
· Reporting results for the quarter ending 31st December, Greatland Gold announces the production of 86,273oz of gold and 3,528t of copper at an average all-in-sustaining cost of A$2,196/oz of gold.
· Managing Director, Shaun Day, said that “Based on the first half performance, we currently expect full-year production to trend towards the upper end of the guidance range of 260,000 - 310,000 ounces, and full-year AISC towards the lower end of the guidance range of $2,400 - $2,800 per ounce”.
· Today’s announcement explains that “FY26 production is expected to be slightly weighted towards the first half of FY26. Based on the first half performance, full-year production is currently expected to trend towards the upper end of the FY26 production guidance range of 260,000 - 310,000oz Au, and AISC currently expected to trend towards the lower end of the guidance range of $2,400 - $2,800/oz Au”.
· Mr. Day said that the “Conclusion of the December quarter completes our first full 12 months of ownership of Telfer in which we produced over 335,000 ounces of gold and 14,000 tonnes of copper, generated ~$1.3 billion cash flow from operations, and built our net cash by ~$800 million”.
· The December quarter production results from treating 4.5mt of ore at an average grade of 0.65g/t gold and 0.1% copper to recover ~88% of the contained gold and ~79% of the copper.
· Greatland Resources also highlights the completion of the Havieron Feasibility Study which envisages pre-production capital expenditure of A$1,065m is expected to generate an after-tax NPV5% of A$2.9bn and IRR of 22.5% at a gold price of A$4,500/oz.
· The project is expected to produce ~266kozpa of gold and 9.6ktpa of copper over an initial 17-year life at an AISC of $1,610/oz.
Conclusion: At the mid-point of the year, FY 2026 production expected in the upper part of the 260-310,000oz guidance range with AISC expected in the lower part of the A$2,400-2,800/oz guidance.
GreatWestern Mining (GWMO LN) 1.6p, Mkt Cap £2.5m – Drilling results from Rhyolite Dome geophysics target
Nevada-based explorer Great Western reports results from its Rhyolite Dome RC programme.
The programme consisted of four shallow RC holes over 706m.
The holes targeted a near-surface resistivity anomaly defined by an IP survey, with a deeper chargeable feature untested by drilling.
Drilling yielded low concentrations of gold over c.1.5m intercepts.
Management suggests that elevated concentrations of pathfinder elements inc. barium, arsenic and manganese, suggest drilling intercepted shallow levels of a hydrothermal system.
Focus now is on revisiting the Olympic Gold geological model, with plans to test the deeper chargeable feature not intercepted from initial drilling.
GreenX has raised A$13.6m at A$0.85 (£0.43) per share.
Proceeds are to be used for exploration and development at Tannenberg in Germany, for the Eleonore North Gold and Antimony Project in Greenland and for general working capital.
Funds will also be used in relation to the Company's ongoing arbitration proceedings against the Republic of Poland.
GreenX was awarded up to £252m in compensation from the international arbitration claims against Poland.
Additional interest of >£17million has been accrued from the original award in 2024.
The Singapore International Commercial Court of the Republic of Singapore recently rejected Poland's application to set aside the Energy Charter Treaty award, thereby upholding GreenX's previously announced right to compensation under the Energy Charter Treaty.
Conclusion: Tannenberg shows significant potential for future mine planning in our view.
* An SP Angel analyst has visited the GreenX prospects in Tannenberg, Germany.
Metals Exploration (MTL LN) 16.8p, Mkt Cap £518m – Lower end of revised 2025 production guidance achieved as La India moves to first gold production in Q4 2026
Q4 production of 15,156oz of gold from the Runruno mine brought 2025 production to 65,287oz “at the lower end of the revised FY2025 lower guidance forecast” (65-70,000oz).
Costs on an all-in-sustaining basis (AISC) were “US$1,368 /oz, which was above the upper FY2025 guidance forecast range of US$1,275 /oz due to the lower ounces sold”.
Runruno production was affected by “production delays due to the Q3 2025 BIOX cyanide contamination issue, which was subsequently resolved, and the impact of Super-typhoon Uwan in Q4 2025, where mains power was restored earlier than forecasted”.
In 2026, Metals Exploration guidance is for production of 50-60,000oz of gold at an AISC of US$1,400-1,650/oz.
During the year, gold sales generated US$208m revenue and US$115m of free cash flow (2024 – US$191m revenue and US$97m cash flow).
“The Company's cash holdings at 31 December 2025 were US$41.6 million (30 September 2025: US$28.3 million). The Group has no debt”.
Metals Exploration confirms that the La India development in Nicaragua is on budget with construction continuing ahead of schedule and now 33% complete.
CEO, Darren Bowden, confirmed that the 145kozpa La India project “remains on track for first gold in Q4 2026 … [and] … will serve to replace cash flow from Runruno as mining operations cease there”.
Design throughput for La India has been uprated during the year to 1.8mtpa (previously 1.4mtpa) “in anticipation of future growth opportunities”.
Today’s announcement confirms that ore stockpiling at La India has started, “Pre-stripping of the open pit mining area is on schedule, at approximately 19% complete“ and that the “tailings storage facility access is complete”.
Conclusion: Following disruption fromcyanide contamination by local illegal mining and the impact of typhoon Uwan, the Runruno mine has achieved the lower end of its revised 2025 production guidance at 65,287oz. Guidance for 2026 is 50-60,000oz of gold productionat an AISC of US$1,400-1,650/oz. The La India project in Nicaragua remains on track for first gold production in Q4 2026.
Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 2.2p, Mkt Cap £56m – Drilling results as Redmoor project gains momentum
Strategic Minerals has released results from a further hole of its 5,000m 2025 drilling campaign at the Redmoor tungsten/tin/copper project in Cornwall following an announcement earlier this month of plans for a further 16,000m programme of infill drilling which “is expected to substantially complete all the required drilling for a prefeasibility study”.
The latest results come from hole CRD-036 which ‘twins’ holes drilled during the 1980s (RM80-05B and -05C) and they “highlight continuity of structures and reproducibility of historical results … [giving] … confidence for the use of the 1980s drillhole data in the deposit model and Mineral Resource estimate ("MRE") thereby reducing future prefeasibility drilling requirements”.
Today’s release highlights multiple intersections of tungsten, tin and copper in CRD-036 including, in down-hole depth order:
o A 0.50m wide interval at an average grade of 1.26% tin and 0.02% for both copper and tungsten trioxide (reported as 1.06% on a tungsten trioxide equivalent basis from a depth of 314.82m; and
o A 0.95m intersection averaging 1.18% tin, 0.01% copper and 0.02% tungsten trioxide (0.99% WO3Eq) from 336.05m depth; and
o A 4.50m intersection averaging 0.14% tin, 0.24% copper and 0.47% tungsten trioxide (0.65% WO3Eq) from 372.50m depth; and
o A 0.70m wide interval at an average grade of 1.92% tin and 1.09%copper and 0.37% tungsten trioxide (reported as 2.23% on a tungsten trioxide equivalent basis from a depth of 383.40m; and
o A 1.65m intersection averaging 0.05% tin, 1.09% copper and 0.23% tungsten trioxide (0.56% WO3Eq) from 401.9m depth which appears to form part of a broader, 5.10m wide interval at an average grade of 0.03% tin, 0.66% copper, and 0.34% WO3 plus 15.5g/t silver – an element which has been highlighted by the recent reassessment of previous geological work having previously been largely unrecognised at Redmoor; and
o A single metre-wide intersection grading 0.02% tin, 0.58% copper and 1.00% tungsten trioxide (1.17% WO3Eq) from 406.00m depth; and
o Another single metre-wide intersection at a grade of 0.04% tin, 1.03% copper and 0.01% tungsten trioxide (0.32% WO3Eq) from 415.00m depth; and
o A 0.70m wide intersection grading 0.07% tin, 0.82% copper and 0.86% tungsten trioxide (1.13% WO3Eq) from 432.00m depth.
· Today’s announcement clarifies the presence of a wide zone of tungsten-dominated mineralisation over 18.50m from 371.50m depth at an average overall grade of 0.14% WO3 and 0.20% tin and 0.25% copper (0.37% WO3Eq).
The announcement also explains that the drilling has “returned multiple zones of high-grade tin and copper intersections, supporting the presence and continuity of tin-copper lode structures within the existing Redmoor Mineral Resource, which will be further studied as part of the MRE update … [in] … the new Redmoor deposit model”.
We note a, not unexpected, zonation in the distribution of minerals within hole CRD-036 with higher tin grades in the upper part of the hole moving to higher copper and tungsten trioxide grades at depth.
Dennis Rowland, Managing Director of Stategic Minerals’ operating company, Cornwall Resources, said that the drilling continues to “return multiple zones of high-grade tin and copper intersections, supporting the presence and continuity of tin-copper lode structures within the existing Redmoor Mineral Resource”.
He confirmed that, “Following the receipt of these results, an update on the new Redmoor deposit model and the outcome of the twinning programme is expected shortly”.
Mark Burnett, Executive Director of Strategic Minerals, confirmed the company’s focus “on the acceleration of the Redmoor project through an updated mineral resource and planned prefeasibility study ("PFS") … supported by the recently completed fundraise for a significant infill drilling programme, designed to shorten drillhole spacing within the resource, as the major requirement for converting the deposit to an Indicated resource classification ahead of the planned PFS”.
The current, 2019, ‘Inferred’ resource at Redmoor is 11.7mt at 1.17% SnEq (0.56% WO₃, 0.16% Sn, 0.50% Cu) and recent and planned PFS level drilling is aimed at upgrading and expanding the resource estimate.
Earlier this month, Strategic Minerals raised £4m to fund the 2026 drilling campaign and progress the pre-feasibility work for Redmoor.
Conclusion: The latest drilling results from Redmoor continue to demonstrate the continuity of mineralisation and help to validate historic 1980s era drilling which may provide an opportunity to include the old data in the forthcoming updated MRE and PFS. We infer that the recently announced 16,000m drilling campaign and acceleration of the project’s pre-feasibility study in 2026 is a signal of the company’s confidence in the project which it describes as “the highest-grade, undeveloped tungsten resource in Europe”.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Strategic Minerals
USA Rare Earths (USAR US) $26, Mkt Cap $3.7bn – $1.6bn LoI agreed with US Government
USA Rare Earths announced a $1.6bn LoI with the US Government on Monday.
The US Department of Commerce intends to provide $1.6bn of funding to support USAR’s mine-to-magnet platform.
Capital is expected to support the start of commercial production from the Round Top deposit from 2028, extracting 40ktpd of ore.
8ktpa of third-party MREC and heavy REE and MREO will be processed at Round Top.
10ktpa of magnet capacity planned by 2029 from the Company’s Stillwater, Oklahoma facility.
Plans to boost strip casting capacity at the LCM facilities to 26ktpa over the next decade.
Government will receive $277m worth of common stock at $17.2/share, with additional warrants.
A finalised flow sheet for Round Top is due for completion 2H26.
Stillwater magnet facility due for commissioning 1Q26.
West African Resources (WAF AU) A$3.84, Mkt Cap A$4.39bn – Strong cashflows as discussions continue with Burkina Faso Government
Burkina Faso gold producer West African reports December quarter results.
Company produced 112koz over the quarter, with 50koz produced from Sanbrado and 62koz produced from Kiaka.
2025 production guidance (290-360koz) achieved with 300koz produced.
Average sales price reported at $4,058/oz and sustaining costs reported at $1,561/oz.
Company reports cash from operating activities at A$389m, with a A$584m cash balance and A$177m in bullion.
WAF is guiding for further drilling results from M5 South, alongside an updated resource and reserve base alongside a 10 year production plan.
WAF continues to engage with the Burkina Faso Government and SOPAMIB regarding asset ownership discussions.
LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:
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