Healthcare and technology are my top two investment themes. LungLife AI (LLAI)- a developer of ground breaking lung cancer diagnostics - offers both.
Today the company reported ‘in line’ H1 results, finishing the period with an as-expected loss before tax (LBT) of -$2.8m, alongside a healthy $5.36m net cash balance that should support plans to target the substantial opportunity ahead.
Here, its patented LungLB blood draw combines state of the art circulating tumour cell (CTC) harvesting science with the latest AI software to produce best-in-class performance. The test delivers a 89% positive predictive value (PPV) compared to 60% for the current standard of care, a CT scan, underlining its credentials as an effective ‘Rule In’ (sensitivity) and a ‘Rule Out’ (specificity) test.
This is a statistically significant leap forward in terms of accuracy which can potentially save healthcare organisations millions each year by catching lung cancer early, as well as being much quicker and safer to conduct than a chest biopsies.
For shareholders, the next key value catalyst is the release of its pivotal blinded 425 patient validation study in September, which began in February 2022. Assuming the data rubber stamps previous findings from a smaller peer-reviewed trial of 151 patients then it should be all systems go for commercialisation, and would me first sales by the end of the year.
Of course, it may then take a little while to ramp up volumes, as doctors familiarise themselves with the patented technology. But once insurance cover has been fully granted, I’d expect revenues to materially scale in 2024 and beyond.
On that basis, broker Investec is forecasting turnover to climb to $4.3m next year, with an LBT of -$4.4m, and $8.0m in 2025. The broker has a buy rating on the stock with a 221p a share price target, predicated on an initial addressable market of 400k units a year worth $800m.
However this could be just the beginning. According to the World Health Organization, lung cancer killed 1.8m people worldwide in 2020. Indeed in America alone there are 1.5m indeterminant lung nodules identified each year, creating a total $3bn total addressable market based on a hypothetical price of $2,000/test.
CEO Paul Pagano commented: "This has been an important 6 months as we continue to meet our milestones. We have concluded participation in our clinical validation study and published two important reports that will assist with the commercialisation of LungLB. Our present focus is the analysis of the results of our clinical validation study which we continue to expect to report on by the end of September.”
With regards future funding, I understand the company has a cash runway expected to last until at least mid 2024, when commercial progress should be apparent.
LungLife AI on the cusp of commercial success as clinical validation studies complete
Aug 8, 2023Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest
The information, investment views and recommendations in this article are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engaging in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the writer but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. Vox Markets may receive payment from companies mentioned for enhanced profiling or publication presence. The writer may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.

