SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 05.11.25

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Alba Mineral Resources (ALBA LN) – Initial drilling at the Finnsbro project, Sweden

AYA Gold and Silver (AYA CN) – Boumadine PEA suggests 328koz AuEq over 11 years

First Tin (1SN LN) – US EXIM expresses interest in providing financial support to the Taronga tin project

North Arrow (NAR CN) – Drilling hits 30m at 1.56g/t Au at Kraaipan, Botswana

Oriole Resources (ORR LN) – BCM progress earn-in at Mbe and Bibemi with Completion Agreement

Prospect Resources (PSC AU) – Sale of Step Aside Lithium Project in Zimbabwe for US$2.2m.

Resolute Mining (RSG LN) – Mali update

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Phase 3 drilling gets underway at Mushima North silver-copper-zinc discovery

Base metals soften amid dollar rally and wider momentum unwind

• Copper fell alongside, with LME prices holding lower levels at $10,655/t with zinc and aluminium sliding alongside the complex.
• The recent metals correction coincides with a rebound in the dollar index, with traders reducing expectations of Fed rate cuts.
• The Dollar had been sliding since Trump’s inauguration, as capital flowed out of the US over concerns of Trump’s trade war.
• This theme seems to have reversed, with the dollar index now climbing above 100 for the first time since May.
• An unwind in bullish metals positioning is coinciding with a slowdown in the wider market rally, with several MAG7 names weakening following earnings reports.
• In copper, we see a flip into deficits in 2026, following major disruptions across including Grasberg, El Teniente, Kamoa Kakula and QB.
• Copper may remain vulnerable to slowing demand and aluminium substitution, alongside the potential return to production from Cobre Panama.
• We suspect there may be a touch of short-term destocking as consumers seen buying metal for future delivery next year

Gold prices rise as US Supreme Court prepares to rule on Trumps global implementation on reciprocal tariffs.

• The Supreme Court will hear the case later today with the ruling to be determined at a later date, possibly January.
• US Tariffs are estimated at $400bn for the first 12 months making this a significant event for the US government, the US dollar, US business and US consumers.
• Gold also likely took a hit from Beijing’s decision to remove a tax-break on physical gold, whilst the end of the Indian festival buying season is also weighing negatively.
• We expect a further correction to entice central banks back into gold buying mode, and consider the trend of central bank foreign reserve diversification a long-term one.

Uranium - China claims process for the conversion of thorium to uranium at a lab in the Gobi Desert

• The team claim to have successfully loaded a 2MW liquid-fuelled thorium-based molten salt reactor (SUMP).
• The process uses in-core thorium-to-uranium conversion to transform naturally occurring thorium-232 into uranium-233.
• The thorium-232 absorbs a neutron to become thorium-233, which decays into protactinium-233 and then further decays into the final product.
• Thorium is dissolved in a fluoride salt into a high-temperature molten mixture which works as a fuel and coolant.
• Neutrons from a small initial charge of fissile material, such as enriched uranium-235 or plutonium-239, initiate the chain reaction.
• The reaction occurs within the reactor core removing the need for external fuel fabrication.

Coal – Beilun Power Station adds a further 1GW bringing total installed capacity to 7.34GW

• Further expansion of the Beilun Power Station makes it the largest thermal power station in China at 7.34GW
• The next largest is the Tuoketuo Power Station at 6.72GW in Inner Mongolia.
• Coal accounted for 53.2% of China’s total energy consumption last year with renewable energy now at 28.6% of total consumption.
• China’s next five-year plan is expected to continue develop clean energy to eventually displace coal-fired power stations depending on local power consumption.

China to ‘embrace free markets and free trade’ and support globalisation

• Its not often you hear a communist-led country embracing free markets and free trade (SCMP)
• Premier Li Qiang has just announced its new focus to a group od ~1,000 government officials, business leaders and merchants in Shanghai.
• The Premier also pledged to further open China’s consumer markets to international businesses after Beijing and Washington reached a significant trade deal that is expected to help restore normalcy to global supply chains.
• But, Li also condemned the rise of tariffs in international trade, noting that they had “seriously undermined international economic and trade rules and disrupted the normal operations of enterprises” in various countries.
• The speech suggest to us that China needs to demonstrate its intention to open up to save manufacturing jobs and industry and to appease the Trump administration.

ii TV - Macro trends, indicators, small caps.

• Precious metals, gold and copper : https://youtu.be/41MBzeI8M4s?si=MY1uIg-iTZwBH5Bh
• FTSE 100 stocks, small-cap and lithium: https://youtu.be/mLPY874joJs?si=8bzipl1DPW_SSe7H

Economics

The European Commission announced €2.9bn in funding commitment covering 61 net zero technology projects across 18 EU countries yesterday.

• Selected projects are focused on energy-intensive industries, renewable energy and energy storage, net-zero mobility and buildings, cleantech manufacturing and industrial carbon management.
• Selected developers now finalising grant agreements with the European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency (CINEA), with results due H1 2026.
• The Innovation Fund reports that 359 applications launched December 2024 looking for €21.7bn were considered.
• Further funding commitments through Innovation Fund are expected to be considered in early December 2025.
• One of projects selected is NEXTGEN CAM lithium battery project to produce LNMO cathode materials.
• The project falls under the “clean manufacturing” category and is one of 11 selected projects sharing €774m in grants.
• That is planned to be the second lithium battery factory in Portugal.
• Chinese CALB (China Aviation Lithium Battery) secured favourable EIA decision for its €2bn project for a lithium battery factory in Sines, southern Portugal, last year.
• The nation can become a captive source for lithium batteries manufacturing capacities with hard rock sources of lithium being developed locally and midstream lithium conversion facilities being considered in the country.

US – Zohran Mamdani wins the mayor race in New York with more Democrats candidates winning elections in a rebuke to Donald Trump and Republicans.

• With 90% of votes counted Mamdani was leading with >50% versus ~42% for Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic three term governor of New York.
• Democrats won New Jersey and Virginia with one year until next midterm elections.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed down 1.2% and 2.0% yesterday dragged by a selloff in tech stocks amid worries over stretched valuations.

• Futures are slightly off this morning.

US government shutdown passes 36 days breaking previous records. Working for the US government must feel increasingly risky.

• Reports indicate a deal may be in place by the weekend reopen government on a short-term basis.
• This should enable more jobs numbers to be released.

China – Private sector growth posted another monthly expansion, although, the pace slowed to a three-month low in October.

• Services sector growth, just like manufacturing, was led by domestic demand with export orders reported to have dropped into a contractionary territory.
• Services PMI (Oct/Sep/Est): 52.6/52.9/52.5
• Composite PMI (Oct/Sep/Est): 51.8/52.5/NA

UK – Rachel Reeves said she will not stepdown if she breaks a core pledge and raise income tax later this month.

Currencies

US$1.1491/eur vs 1.1527/eur previous. Yen 153.55/$ vs 153.59/$. SAr 17.465/$ vs 17.440/$. $1.305/gbp vs $1.311/gbp. 0.649/aud vs         0.652/aud. CNY 7.126/$ vs 7.124/$.

Dollar Index 100.13 vs 99.80 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,979/oz vs US$4,000/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.1moz vs 97.3moz previous

Platinum US$1,547/oz vs US$1,566/oz previous

Palladium US$1,411/oz vs US$1,422/oz previous

Silver US$47.9/oz vs US$48.1/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,950/oz vs US$8,150/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$10,707/t vs US$10,692/t previous

Aluminium US$2,871/t vs US$2,875/t previous

Nickel US$15,095/t vs US$15,090/t previous

Zinc US$3,082/t vs US$3,101/t previous

Lead US$2,027/t vs US$2,025/t previous

Tin US$35,610/t vs US$35,800/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$64.5/bbl vs US$64.3/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices were stable even as the API estimated a 6.5mb w/w build (+2.4mb exp) to US crude stocks.
• European energy prices edged higher as France's nuclear generation fell 1% w/w to 74% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.
• The US Baker Hughes rig count fell by 4 to 546 units last week (-39 or 7% y/y), with oil rigs down 6 to 414 units (-65 y/y) and gas rigs up 4 to 125 units (+23 y/y), with Canada also dropping 11 oil rigs w/w to 127 units (-19 y/y).
• European Union carbon future prices pushed above the €80/t level this week, after Germany announced new support for energy-intensive industries that is expected to increase emissions.

Natural Gas €31.9/MWh vs €31.9/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $79.3/lb vs $79.5/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$105.8/t vs US$105.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$442.7/t vs US$443.0/t

HCC FOB Australia US$196.0/t vs US$198.3/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$113.3/t vs US$112.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$48,570/t vs US$48,570/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$76,342/t vs US$76,160/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,946/t vs US$10,950/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$940/t vs US$940/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$688/mtu vs US$678/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$93/lb vs US$93/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$395/t vs US$395/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.5/lb vs US$5.5/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.9/kg vs US$23.9/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$270/t vs US$270/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,102/t vs US$1,102/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$355.0/t vs US$355.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,125.0/kg vs US$3,125.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

Pony AI launches 7th-generation robotaxi with 70% lower cost

• Pony AI has launched its 7th-generation robotaxi in Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
• The new robotaxis are built on the Arcfox Alpha T5 and GAC Aion V vehicles, both mid-size SUVs.
• According to the company, the new generation’s autonomous-driving system costs 70% less than the previous generation.
• The 7th-gen system features 34 sensors (9 LiDARs, 14 cameras, 4 mm-wave radars) and has a lifespan is rated at 600,000 km.
• It is claimed to be the world’s first Level 4 full-scenario robotaxi based on automotive-grade SoC chips.
• Over 3.5 million km of public-road testing have been completed, with the current fleet totalling over 720 units, expanding to 1,000 by the end of 2025.
• Pony AI runs operations in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, and has pilot services in Luxembourg, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Singapore.



Company news

Alba Mineral Resources (ALBA LN) 0.02p, Mkt cap £3.5m – Initial drilling at the Finnsbro project, Sweden

• Alba Mineral Resources reports that drilling has started at its Finnsbro gold and rare-earths project in southern Sweden.
• The drilling comprising ~300m in three holes is following up targets defined by geochemical and geophysical exploration and aims to establish the “continuity of high-grade gold, copper and rare earth mineralisation”.
• Alba Mineral Resources is earning an initial interest of 25% in the project by spending £100,000 and has a right “to earn or acquire in further stages up to a 100% interest in the Project”.
• The planned drilling is expected to take around two weeks.

AYA Gold and Silver (AYA CN) C$14, Mkt Cap C$2bn – Boumadine PEA suggests 328koz AuEq over 11 years

• AYA Gold and Silver, currently producing at the Zgounder mine in Morocco, report a PEA for the Boumadine project in Morocco.
• The study envisages an 8,000tpd flotation plant producing three gold-and-silver-bearing concentrates, zinc, lead and pyrite.
• Study envisages 328kozpa AuEq production over the 11 year LOM.
• CAPEX estimated at $446m, with $340m in sustaining capital.
• Production split between 19.4mt  (3.85g/t AuEq) open pit, 11.6mt (3.86g/t AuEq) underground.
• Feed Grades as followed:
  • Gold: 2.43g/t
  • Silver: 73g/t
  • Zinc: 1.91%
  • Lead: 0.7%
• Concentrate grades:
  • Lead: 23.8g/t Au, 50g/t Ag, 82%Pb
  • Zinc: 1g/t Au, 4.6g/t Ag, 74.7% Zn
  • Pyrite: 71g/t Au, 41g/t Ag
• Payability:
  • Gold 69%, Silver 77%, Zinc 85%, Lead 90%
• MRE of:
  • Indicated: 5.2mt at 2.78g/t Au, 91g/t Ag, 2.8% Zn, 0.85% Pb (4.98g/t AuEq) for 827koz AuEq
  • Inferred: 29.2mt at 2.63g/t Au, 82g/t Ag, 2.1% Zn, 0.82% Pb (4.47g/t AuEq) for 4.2moz AuEq
• LOM AISC guided at $1021/oz AuEq
• Post-tax NPV5 of $1.5bn and IRR of 47% using $2,800/oz Au, $20/oz Ag, $1/lb Pb, $1.2/lb Zn.
• Post-tax NPV5 of $3bn and IRR of 77% at $4,000/oz Au, $48/oz Ag.
• Aya is undertaking a 360,000m drilling programme to define and expand the current MRE.
• Feasibility study due for year-end 2027.
• Company is also exploring potential to add a roaster to the flowsheet.
• Commercial production currently guided for 2031.

First Tin (1SN LN) 9p, Mkt Cap £35m – US EXIM expresses interest in providing financial support to the Taronga tin project

·        First Tin reports that the United States’ Export-Import Bank (EXIM) has expressed interest in potentially providing financial support for the development of First Tin’s Taronga tin project in New South Wales.

·        EXIM expresses interest in providing “up to US$120 million in financing for a maximum repayment term of 12 years … linked to the supply of tin concentrate to the U.S., which currently has no domestic tin mine production”.

·        CEO, Bill Scotting, said that EXIM’s interest in Taronga recognises the project’s “strategic importance and the growing recognition of tin as a critical mineral, essential for modern technology”.

·        He explained that the “U.S. is reliant on imported tin, yet global supply remains tight and vulnerable to disruption. Australia is the only OECD tin-concentrate supplier, and with the largest undeveloped tin resource base in the OECD”.

·        EXIM’s website describes its approach to financing critical minerals’ projects as including “greenfield projects and significant facility or production expansions … [and that it] … has no dollar limits based on project size, sector or country”.

·        Yesterday, First Tin announced the completion of ~7,500m of resource conversion drilling at Taronga aimed at converting the 61mt portion of the overall resource at Taronga currently classed as ‘Inferred’ to the higher confidence ‘Measured’ or ‘Indicated’ levels.

·        The new drilling is expected to contribute to an update to the current Measured, Indicated & Inferred’ resource of 133mt at an average grade of 0.1% tin and to a new “optimised DFS to be published in mid-2026."

• Conclusion: The Taronga tin project may be a candidate for financial support from the US EXIM Bank.

North Arrow (NAR CN) C$0.18, Mkt Cap C$5.2m – Drilling hits 30m at 1.56g/t Au at Kraaipan, Botswana

• North Arrow Minerals reports results from their maiden drilling programme at Kraaipan, Botswana.
• Drilling returned highlights including:
  • KR 25-157: 30m at 1.56g/t Au from surface, including 7.32g/t Au over 3m. and 4m at 4.26g/t Au from 10m
  • KR25-156: 3m at 2.59g/t Au from 20m
• Previous drilling had returned
  • KR25-051: 13m at 0.4g/t Au
  • KR25-060: 10m at 0.43g/t Au
• Company reports that true widths are estimated at 50-75% of drilled interval.
• Management sees hole KR 25-157 as a ‘breakthrough intersection for Kraaipan,’ noting similar grades to the Kalgold mine.
• Going forward, North Arrow will undertake ground follow-up exploration work on priority targets, alongside hyperspectral analysis, pathfinder geochemistry and geological interpretation.
• This will preceed angled RC drilling to target mineralised structures at Target A, AF, AE, K, followed by possible core drilling.
• 2026 will see step-out RC drilling and diamond drilling.

Oriole Resources (ORR LN) 0.27p, Mkt Cap £10m – BCM progress earn-in at Mbe and Bibemi with Completion Agreement

• Oriole provides an update on their agreement with BCM.
•  The two parties have signed the Completion Agreement, relating to the earn-ins at Bibemi and Mbe.
• This sees BCM pay Oriole $900k in three equal monthly installments, also contributing $300k for drilling at MB01-N.
• Cash payments will also fund detailed metallurgical testwork at Bibemi, with the remaining added to Oriole’s $840k as of 31st October.
• Receipt of cash payments will meet BCM’s financing commitments to earn-in 50% interests at Mbe and Bibemi.
• The MB01-N drilling programme will include 2,950m of diamond drilling, aiming to convert the Exploration Target (15-20mt at 0.77-0.94g/t Au for 370-605koz) into a JORC MRE.
• MB01-S currently holds a maiden MRE of:
  • Oxide: 2.4mt at 0.91g/t Au for 70koz
  • Fresh: 22.4mt at 1.1g/t Au for 800koz
  • Total: 24.8mt at 1.09g/t Au for 870koz
• The MRE uses a pitshell of $3,200/oz Au and a cut-off grade of 0.4g/t Au.
• The MRE stands at 900m long, 700m wide and 340m deep.

Conclusion: BCM is now set to control 50% of the Bibemi and Mbe projects, following the Completion Agreement. This sees Oriole funded for a 2,950m DD programme at MB01-N, where they are aiming to define a JORC MRE from the current 370-605koz Exploration Target. Oriole is on track to define >1moz Au at Mbe. Focus is also on metallurgical testwork at Bibemi, with preliminary studies suggesting refractory mineralisation at Mbe and Bibemi resulting from dominance of telluride mineralogy and gold within pyrite. We continue to see a commercial flowsheet as the next major derisking step for Oriole going forward, perhaps including fine grinding and hyopochlorite pre-leaching

Prospect Resources (PSC AU) A$0.20, Mkt cap A$137m – Sale of Step Aside Lithium Project in Zimbabwe for US$2.2m.

(Prospect Resources hold 85% of the Mumbezhi copper project)

• Prospect Resources has agreed to sell its Step Aside Lithium Project in Zimbabwe for US$2.2m.
• Prospect will receive a US$850,000 upfront payment, a deferred payment of US$150,000 and a final payment of up to US$1.2m within 24 months.
• The final payment is conditional on the buyer achieving specific development milestones.
• Proceeds from the sale will be used to advance exploration at the Mumbezhi copper project in Zambia and for the evaluation of other Zambian-based copper opportunities.
• Mumbezhi has a JORC-reportable MRE at Nyungu Central and Kabikupa of 107.2mt grading 0.5% copper and lies in a geologically similar setting to Barrick's giant Lumwana copper mine.
• First Quantum Minerals bought 15% of Prospect and became a technical partner following the release of the maiden resource.
• Mumbezhi has two large-scale mining licences, providing 25-year tenure security with environmental approvals in place.
• Metallurgical test work has shown excellent copper recovery rates, suggesting it can be processed using conventional, low-cost methods similar to those used at Lumwana and FQM's Sentinel mine.

Conclusion: The sale highlights the ability of Prospect’s management to source funds without recourse to the market.

We look forward to an updated MRE this year showing the projects economic viability.

*The analyst has visited the Mumbezhi project in Zambia

Resolute Mining (RSG LN) 41p, Mkt Cap £934m – Mali update

• The Company reports its operations in Mali continue to operate normally with minimal disruption.
• The team is working on addressing the supply chain challenges by finding new suppliers and logistics routes.
• Issues relate to the delivery of fuel and explosives.
• The stock is down 5% this morning.

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.07p, Mkt Cap £3.4m – Phase 3 drilling gets underway at Mushima North silver-copper-zinc discovery

• Tertiary has started drilling its 1,000m RC drilling programme at the A1 Target, Mushima North, Zambia.
• Drilling is expected to be completed within two weeks.
• Following completion of the programme, Tertiary will look to deliver an Exploration Target, followed by a maiden MRE within the next 12 months.
• Drilling is aimed at testing for further lateral extensions of known mineralisation, focusing on the high-grade silver and copper mineralisation intersected in hole 25TMNAC-038.
• Drilling will focus on several east-west drill lines spaced 100m apart.
• Holes will be collared 50-100m apart along the east-west lines and drilled to 100m nominal depth.
• Wider spaced drill lines will boost understanding of the continuity of mineralisation.
• Tertiary will also drill down to 150m at certain sections to better understand the potential continuity of mineralisation at depth.

Conclusion: Tertiary is picking up steam in Zambia now, having extended their agreement with Kobold for further drilling at Konkola West yesterday. Today they outline the next 1,000m of RC drilling at Mushima North, which aims to establish continuity of the near-surface and wide polymetallic mineralisation.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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