SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 07.01.26

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

ECR Minerals (ECR LN) – Initial gold production at Raglan expected this month

Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) – Agreement to acquire the past producing Andocollo Oro Gold Project (~7moz historical MRE)

Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) – 2.9koz produced in FY25 with 4.0koz guided for FYF26

Greatland Resources (GGP LN) – Preliminary December quarter production from Telfer exceeds September quarter performance

Koryx Copper (KRY CN) – C$25m raise to fund technical studies at Haib, Namibia

Lithium Argentina (LAR US) – Q4 production results as 2025 guidance met at higher end

Oriole Resources (ORR LN) – MB01-N drilling returns 22m at 3.13g/t Au

Panther Metals (PALM LN) – Metallurgical testing at Winston Lake

Tin ($44,526/t) scales recent highs as Myanmar production remains muted and Indonesia disruptions persist

• Tin prices have rallied 40% since June 2025, as the long-awaited return of Myanmar’s Man Maw mine remains absent.
• Chinese reports suggest that ore supply into the country remains tight as the major mine has failed to restart production, despite authorisation from the Wa State government.
• However, SMM reports the resumption of production at Myanmar tin mines is progressing, with December imports expected at 6kt from 1.3kt in November.
• Indonesian exports fell to 2.6kt in October, after President Prabawo cracked down on illegal mining, triggering much of the past three month’s rally.
• Indonesian production is normalising now, with Mysteel expecting a surplus this year.
• Tin prices are pressing higher despite entering the traditional off-season for consumer electronics demand.
• China is stimulating consumer goods demand with subsidy policies, helping consumption expectations.

Nickel ($18,500/t) joins base metals rally as Indonesia production cuts lift prices

• Nickel has rallied 24% over the past month on a series of supply setbacks and wider metals rally.
• The metal hit 15-month highs after Vale halted Indonesian operations pending a new government mining permit.
• Prices remain well below short-squeeze levels of $55k/t hit in 2022.
• A major ramp up in Indonesian supply has pushed western producers to idle operations, with BHP’s Nickel West going into care and maintenance amid uneconomic prices.
• Indonesia announced plans last year to cut production, with an industry body expecting c.34% volume cuts going forward to balance supply and demand.
• Benchmark expects a surplus of 250kt in 2026 with ongoing supply growth from Indonesia’s China-funded HPAL operations.
• Over 60% of nickel demand remains driven by the stainless steel industry.

Copper ($13,140/t) stabilises higher as focus shifts to US tariff concerns drawing metal out of Asia

• Copper has held higher ground over $13,000/t following a 46% LTM rally.
• US prices on COMEX continue to demand high premiums, pushing China to export copper out of Asian warehouses into the US.
• Chinese refined copper exports hit an annual record of 699kt in November, with 58kt headed to US warehouses. (Reuters)
• CME inventories are now sitting over 450kt, more than both the LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange combined.
• The move reflects renewed concerns of additional copper tariffs from the White House, who u-turned in July, tariffing only copper products.
• Reuters reports Chinese imports of Chilean copper (world’s largest producer), fell 43%yoy in Jan-November, and 50% from Peru, with copper imports from DRC plugging the gap.
• Global copper inventories finished 2025 over 800kt, highest in 12 years.
• This leaves copper prices vulnerable to a pull-back, should Trump provide more clarity on his copper tariff strategy going forward.
• However, mine supply disruptions persist, with a market surplus in 2027 hinging on the successful ramp up of Grasberg and a restart at Cobre Panama.

Commodity indices to rebalance around >$60bn assets with around $5-7bn of gold and $4-7bn of silver to be sold

• The giant BCOM and S&P GSCI commodity index funds are rebalancing this week and next week with substantial flows out of precious metals and into softs and energy
• The commodity indices are weight rebalanced at the start of the year based on market liquidity, production, and rules, forcing passive funds to sell overweighted assets.
• The rebalancing forces passive funds to sell overweight assets, eg gold and silver and buy underweighted assets with specific rules limiting a single asset to 15% in the case of BCOM.
• We expect the move to add marginally to base metals as the index’s rebalance away from the massive gains seen in precious metals with the greatest impact on oil and gas and soft commodities.
• Gold is expected to see a $4.7-6.8bn outflow across the indices followed by silver at $3.8-7bn  
• Lead and zinc will be rebalanced higher with some positive reweighting into nickel and LME copper.
• The rebalancing will be anticipated by the market leading to some volatility in market pricing, particularly in gold and silver.

Economics:

China – PBoC indicates further promotion of yuan, lower interest rates and initiatives to raise domestic demand

• The PBoC retained its commitment to moderately loose monetary policy at a conference where it outlined priorities for the coming year.
• The central bank will make ‘flexible and efficient’ use of cuts to the RRR ‘Reserve Requirement Ratio.
• The PBoC is targeting a reasonable recovery in prices, reduced financial risks in critical sectors and maintenance of yuan currency stability along with improving infrastructure for cross-border use of the currency.

Iran – Ongoing protests in key cities around Iran risks escalation into full-blown revolution

Venezuela – Compensation potential for Western gold miners following arrest of Maduro

• Improved chances of compensation or return of assets following seizure by Venezuela government.
• Many Venezuelan gold mines are reported to be operated by Chinese companies and other criminal cartels.
• Rusoro Mining whose assets were seized in 2011 by the Venezuelan government as part of its nationalisation of the industry say its chances of collecting compensation have improved.
• Rusoro was awarded >$1.2bn in damages by an ICSID tribunal in 2016 which ruled Venezuela had unlawfully expropriated Rusoro's assets.
• Venezuela agreed a >$1.28bn settlement in 2018 with an initial $100m paid but then received no further payments.
• Gold Reserve Ltd is seeking >$2bn in compensation for the seizure of two assets Brisas and Cristinas at the Siembra Minera project in Bolivar state by the Chavez government.
• The mines are now run by the Cartel de los Soles, a US-designated narco-terrorist organisation according to Mining.com.
• The company is also keen to secure the release of its legal counsel, José Ignacio Moreno Suarez, who was imprisoned in 2023 during the arbitration dispute.
• Brisas is estimated to host ~10moz of proven reserves

Currencies

US$1.1682/eur vs 1.1774/eur previous. Yen 156.58/$ vs 156.28/$. SAr 16.407/$ vs 16.706/$. $1.349/gbp vs $1.348/gbp. 0.674/aud vs 0.671/aud. CNY 6.990/$ vs 7.009/$

Dollar Index 98.67 vs 98.02 previous

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,468/oz vs US$4,464/oz previous

• Gold ETFs 98.9moz vs 98.9moz previous

Platinum US$2,321/oz vs US$2,325/oz previous

Palladium US$1,760/oz vs US$1,736/oz previous

Silver US$79.8/oz vs US$78.5/oz previous

• Silver ETFs 857.0moz vs 860.2moz previous

Rhodium US$9,950/oz vs US$9,850/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,068/t vs US$13,263/t previous

Aluminium US$3,116/t vs US$3,113/t previous

Nickel US$18,670/t vs US$17,905/t previous

Zinc US$3,236/t vs US$3,252/t previous

Lead US$2,085/t vs US$2,050/t previous

Tin US$44,570/t vs US$44,350/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$60.2/bbl vs US$61.7/bbl previous

Natural Gas €28.8/MWh vs €27.7/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $81.9/lb vs $82.0/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$109.1/t vs US$106.7/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$462.8/t vs US$463.3/t

HCC FOB Australia US$221.5/t vs US$223.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$105.5/t vs US$105.3/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$54,835/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$86,764/t vs US$87,217/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$17,896/t vs US$17,400/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,570/t vs US$1,525/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,018/mtu vs US$998/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$103/lb vs US$102/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.3/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$261/t vs US$261/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$3,013/t vs US$3,013/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,123/t vs US$1,124/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365.0/t vs US$365.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

EV and battery news:

BYD overtakes Tesla as largest EV seller in 2025

• BYD sales rose 28% in 2025 to just over 2.25m vehicles in 2025.
• The Chinese automaker saw global sales growth rate slow in 2025 as competition in domestic markets increased, but still posted strong sales.
• On the other hand, Tesla sales dropped 9% in the year to 1.64m cars, its second consecutive year of falling sales.
• Tesla has had a difficult year, with Elon Musk's divisive politics, intensifying competition from Chinese manufacturers and mixed reception to new models having significant impact on sales.
• Q4 2025 saw the steepest decline in sales, down 16%, in part down to President Trump repealing the $7,500 government subsidy.

UK EV discounts unsustainable warns motoring group

• The number of new cars registered in the UK exceeded 2m last year for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.
• 473,340 of these new cars were electric according to Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), a 23.4% market share.
• This was a significant increase of 2024, but still well below the governments mandated 28% target.
• Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive has said that carmakers were having to offer significant and unsustainable discounts to sell EVs, but despite this were still falling short of government targets.

Company News:

ECR Minerals (ECR LN) 0.35, Mkt Cap £8.4m – Initial gold production at Raglan expected this month

• ECR Minerals reports that it expects to produce gold from its Raglan alluvial project in Queensland before the end of January.
• The company has the required permits and an operating team and processing facilities in place at Raglan, which was acquired in December.
• The washing plant, which is described as “near-new” is capable of treating 60tph and is “strategically located close to ECR's Blue Mountain alluvial project, enabling potential operational synergies across the Company's growing Queensland hub”.
• Chairman, Nick Tulloch, described the appointment of the operating team as “the final major step to bring the Raglan Project into production … before the end of January 2026”.
• He explained that revenues from Raglan “should be able to support the development of our broader Queensland portfolio - most notably the much larger Blue Mountain project”.
• Mr. Tulloch said that “current gold prices sitting at historically high levels … [provide] … the Raglan Project … the potential to be a profitable project, generating meaningful cashflow in due course that can be reinvested across the business”.

Conclusion: The rapid move to revenue generation from Raglan is expected to support the development of the larger scale Blue Mountain project in Queensland.

Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) 28p, Mkt Cap £16m – Agreement to acquire the past producing Andocollo Oro Gold Project (~7moz historical MRE)

• The Company signed a definitive agreement to acquire a 100% interest in the Andacollo Oro Gold Project, Chile.
• The Andacollo Project is a brownfield asset located in the Coquimbo Region, Chile, approximately 55 kilometres southeast of the coastal city of La Serena, at a low elevation of 1,100 metres.
• The Project operated as a 20ktpd open pit heap leach operation producing 1.12moz over 1998-2018 with peak production of 135koz.
• The Project is adjacent to the Carmen del Andacollo (CDA) Copper Mine, a copper porphyry operation, 90% owned by Teck Resources (45ktpa Cu production, ~450mt at 0.26% and 0.09g/t MRE (ex PP), ~240mt at 0.31% and 0.10g/t PP).
• Geologically, the Project hosts a low-sulphidation epithermal, manto-style gold system.
• Historical mineral resources ($1,750/oz gold price, 0.15g/t COG):
• Measured&Indicated 130mt at 0.48g/t for 2.0moz
• Inferred 358mt at 0.46g/t for 5.1moz
• Historical mineral reserves ($1,550/oz gold price, 0.20g/t COG):
• 40.7mt at 0.64g/t for 0.8moz
• Exploration database includes 1,600 drill holes for a total of 190,000m.
• The deposit is reported to remain open along strike and down dip.
• Thanks to past producing status of the Project, it benefits from good access to infrastructure and valid permits including mining concessions, land title and water rights.
• The Company is acquiring 100% of Sol de Oro Mining (Sol) that in turn holds a 100% of Compania Minera OXI (OXI) that acquired 100% in Compania Minera e Inmobiliaria Dragones (Dragones).
• Transaction includes issuing 91.3m shares of Galantas (~19.9%, to be issued at market price with resale restrictions and escrow requirements) to a controlling shareholder of Dragones (Luis Castril) as well as a US$32m cash consideration:
• US$4.5m on closing including
• the assumption of debts held by OXI and Sol, which is approximately US$3.0 million
• $1.5m payable to the Sol shareholder (100% interest held by Robert Sedgemore)
• $3.5m due to Dragones on 31 December 2026
• $4.0m due to Dragones on 31 December 2027
• $6.0m due to Dragones on 31 December 2028
• $14.0 due to Dragones on 31 December 2029
• Future cash consideration to be funded from a combination of future financing and and/or working capital.
• Silver streams on the property are held by K2 Resources and ExGen Resources including:
• 33.4% and 66.6% of payable silver production due to K2 and ExGen for the first 1moz;
• 16.7% and 33.3% over LOM after that.
• The deal is subject to shareholder approval and is recommended by the Board.

Conclusion: The acquisition of the Andacollo Oro Project secures a large, past producing, brownfield gold asset (~7moz in historical MRE) in Chile, adjacent to the long life CDA operation owned by Teck. While further work would be required to develop mine plan and define metallurgy of the resource (oxide/transition/sulphide) as part of restating historical MRE (~7moz), preparing an economic study, planning an operation restart and funding, the agreed price tag is extremely low given the potential size of the resource along with a highlighted exploration upside subject to more drilling. The transaction further increases Galantas’ exposure to Chile following its recent agreement to acquire the Indiana Gold Copper Project near Copiapó, signalling a clear strategic pivot of the Group.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Galantas Gold

Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) 0.5p, Mkt Cap £5m – 2.9koz produced in FY25 with 4.0koz guided for FYF26

• The Company released operational update for the Homase Gold Mine in Ghana.
• FY25 production 2.9koz.
• Averaged realised gold price $3,464/oz.
• Revenues ~$10m.
• AISC averaged $2,781/oz in the year to November 2025.
• Mined 744kt including 144kt ore implying ~4.2x strip ratios.
• Average heap leach stacking rates dropped to 14ktpm affected by heavy rainfall and increased frequency of regulatory inspections.
• Modifications to the plant included an installed new screening and conveying system that should help bring stacking rates up and a planned intermediary pong to address leaching solution dilution.
• FY26 guidance for 4.0koz at $2,500-2,900/oz AISC.
• Homase Gold Mine guided to provide 250kt mined ore in FY26 at an average 1.0g/t, subject to permitting.
• Ore to be sourced primarily from Pit 3.
• 68% metallurgical recoveries are targeted.
• Average stacking rates are forecast at 36ktpm with the pace varying 14-56ktpm subject to weather conditions.
• Pad 6 is currently under construction and is scheduled for commissioning 1Q26.

Conclusion: FY25 (2.9koz) highlights operational and regulatory challenges that held back production during the year with production guided to increase in FY26 (4.0koz) on improved mine sequencing and plant modifications.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Goldstone Resources

Greatland Resources (GGP LN) 564.8p, Mkt Cap £3,622m – Preliminary December quarter production from Telfer exceeds September quarter performance

·        Reporting preliminary production results for the quarter ending 31st December, Greatland Resources announces the production of 86,273oz of gold and 3,528t of copper from its Telfer mine in WA (September quarter 2025 -80,890oz of gold and 3,366t of copper.

·        Further production and cost details are to be disclosed in the “December 2025 Quarterly Activities Report on Wednesday, 28 January 2026”.

·        Quarterly sales were 72,212oz of gold and 3301t of copper

·        The company confirms that it is debt-free, unhedged and held A$948m cash at 31st December.

Koryx Copper (KRY CN) C$2.85, Mkt Cap C$282m – C$25m raise to fund technical studies at Haib, Namibia

• Koryx, who are advancing the Haib copper project in Namibia, are raising C$25m at C$2.45/share.
• The bought deal private placement reflects a 14% discount to yesterday’s close.
• Koryx will pay a cash commission of 6% on gross proceeds alongside warrants equal to 3% of the common shares sold under the offering, exercisable at C$2.45/share.
• Koryx’s Haib Copper Project:
• MRE: 511mt at 0.33% Cu for 1.67mt Cu indicated and 309mt at 0.31% Cu for 0.95mt Cu inferred.
• PEA envisages 88ktpa over a 23 year LOM at AISC of $2.05/lb.
• Conventional milling and flotation at 28mtpa with feed grade of 0.225% Cu alongside a 7mtpa heap leach with feed grade >0.15% Cu
• Open pit with stripping ratio of 1.8x
• Development CAPEX of $1.56bn and post-tax NPV8 of $1.35bn using $9,500/t Cu for IRR of 20.1%
• Management is aiming to de-risk the project towards an FID/asset sale.
• Koryx is looking to improve the MRE size and grade with drilling, alongside conducting trade-off studies, permitting and optimising processing methods for further technical studies.

Lithium Argentina (LAR US) $7, Mkt Cap $1.1bn – Q4 production results as 2025 guidance met at higher end

• Lithium Argentina, who produce lithium carbonate alongside Ganfeng from the Cauchari-Olaroz brines, report production results.
• The Company produced 34.1kt LCE in 2025, within the 30-35kt guidance.
• Q4 production hit 9.7kt LCE with an average operating rate of 97% of nameplate capacity.
• Company expects 4Q25 cash operating costs below $6,000/t LCE vs $6,285/t LCE in 3Q25 on higher volumes.
• Cauchari Olaroz expected to reduce net debt by $26m in Q4, with $15m distributed to both Ganfeng and LAR.
• The JV also submitted environmental permit and RIGI applications for Stage 2 expansion of 45ktpa production capacity.
• Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes RIGI application due 1Q26.
• The PPG JV expects production capacity of 150ktpa LCE over the long term, with total CAPEX of $3.3bn, AISC of $5,351/t and post-tax NPV8 of $8.1bn at $18k/t LCE for 32.7% IRR.
• The LAR-Ganfeng Argentina JV is targeting long term LCE production capacity of >250ktpa, incorporating Ganfeng’s proprietary DLE technology.

*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in LAR

Oriole Resources (ORR LN) 0.26p, Mkt Cap £12.5m – MB01-N drilling returns 22m at 3.13g/t Au

• Oriole reports drilling from MB01-N.
• The Company is drilling out the prospect which lies to the north of its MB01-S, where it has delivered an MRE of 24.8mt at 1.09g/t Au for 870koz inferred.
• Today Oriole reports assay results from two holes, yielding:
• MBDD025: 16.2m at 0.77g/t Au from 37m (inc. 10m at 1.08g/t Au)
• MBDD026: 21.7m at 3.13g/t Au from 86.8m (inc. 7.2m at 8.19g/t Au)
• Management notes initial structural interpretation highlights similarities to MB01-S, with high-grade narrow intervals within wider lower-grade envelopes.
• High-grade mineralisation supported by NNW-trending breccia zones, with the two mineralised zones lying 200m apart.
• The programme is now 46% complete, with six holes drilled and a seventh underway.
• MB01-N holds an exploration target of 15-20mt at 0.77-0.94g/t Au for 370-605koz Au.

Panther Metals (PALM LN) 65p, Mkt Cap £4.5m – Metallurgical testing at Winston Lake

• Panther Metals reports the appointment of a US based technology company, Extrakt Process Solutions, to undertake metallurgical testing of recovery rates for its Winston Lake tailings project in Ontario.
• The testing aims to “generate baseline data on metal extraction performance, which will guide and support the design of subsequent testwork phases to determine the recoveries for gold (Au), gallium (Ga), indium (In), silver (Ag), zinc (Zn), copper (Cu) and cobalt (Co) and/or other recoverable metals”.
• Today’s announcement says that the “Winston Lake Mine was operational from 1988 to 1998, producing approximately 3.3 million tonnes of ore and yielding zinc, copper, silver, and gold. Based on historic recoveries from mining activities in the 1980s and 1990s, it is believed that a significant quantity of valuable material remains in the tailing storage facility”.
• CEO, Darren Hazelwood, explained that Extrakt are “pioneering advanced non-cyanide mineral processing technologies to recover metals from tailings in an environmentally sustainable manner”.
• In September 2025, Panther Metals reported the appointment of the consultants, SRK, to prepare a CIM compliant mineral resource estimate (MRE) for the Winston Lake tailings project.
• The company has previously quoted an economic study from 2021 using a copper price of US$2,700/t (currently ~US$13,263/t), a gold price of US$1,635/oz (currently ~US$4,464) and a silver price of US$21/oz (currently ~US$78/oz) where capital investment of ~C$145m and a treatment rate of 326ktpa over an 8.5year project life produces “an average 33.40ktpa contained zinc,1.3ktpa contained copper, 698oz recovered gold and 90.8koz recovered silver”.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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