SP Angel . Morning View . Tuesday 17.02.26

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Antofagasta (ANTO LN)  – Strong prices bolster 2025 financial results as company targets a 30% rise in medium term copper production

BHP (BHP LN)  – Copper moves into pole position contributing more than half the H1 EBITDA

Empire Metals* (EEE LN)  – Further drilling to upgrade and expand the Pittfield MRE in WA

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN)  – Technical report on Karakubis project, Botswana

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN)  – MoU for marketing graphite concentrate from Kasiya, Malawi

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN)  – Results for the year to September 2025

Copper stocks held at exchanges in Shanghai, London and New York climbed over 1mt, the highest level since 2003.

• More than half (~590kt) is now stored in the US or more than fivefold compared to the previous year.
• President Trump is set to revisit the decision on the status of refined copper imports tariffs in the second half this year.
• The nation imported 1.7mt last year or nearly double the volume from the previous year.
• Markets are beginning to wonder if the buildup in inventories is purely commercial or driven by increasing geopolitical concerns.
• The government may step up purchases of copper under the recently announced Project Vault with ~$12bn planned for stockpiling of critical minerals.

VOX video:  The most extraordinary week in commodities I've ever witnessed

• Podcast:  The Vox Markets Podcast

IG TV – Commodity Markets Weekly: https://youtu.be/-YKK0NzMLZ0?si=i-83_jtBI8u5bM86

We are now in a new commodities cycle: on VOX: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a

• Podcast: The Vox Markets Podcast / Mining Matters: We are now in a new commodities cycle, says SP Angel's John Meyer

Worth reading - Mineral War: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction by Tomasz Nadrowski

• https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mineral-War-Chinas-Weapons-Destruction/dp/B0GHDYRLZK

Currencies

US$1.1843/eur vs 1.1863/eur previous. Yen 152.76/$ vs 153.37/$. SAr 16.031/$ vs 15.905/$. $1.359/gbp vs $1.365/gbp. 0.707/aud vs 0.709/aud. CNY 6.905/$ vs 6.905/$.

Dollar Index 97.13 vs 96.96 previous.

Economics

US – Stock futures (S&P -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.6%) are trading lower as markets are due to reopen following a long weekend.

China – New Year celebrations kick off today as the nation celebrates the start of the Year of the Fire Horse.

• Celebrations are expected to last for 15 days culminating in the Lantern Festival ending March 3.
• Mainland stocks exchanges are closed this week and reopen Tuesday next week.
• Hong Kong market reopens Friday.

President Trump is said to be talking with Chinese Xi Jinping regarding future weapons sales to Taiwan.

• “I’m talking to him about it. We had a good conversation, and we’ll make a determination pretty soon,” Trump told reporters Monday.
• Earlier, FT reports the US is preparing a new round of military equipment deliveries to Taiwan, in addition to an $11bn contract announced in December.
• A new arms supply deal between the US and Taiwan may risk the meeting between the US and China planned for April.

Japan – The central bank likely to hike rates in April, Seiji Adachi, a former BOJ board member, said in an interview.

• Markets are currently seeing a just over 60% chance of that happening with a June move nearly fully priced in.
• Board members previously signalled that more rate hikes are in the pipeline after the December increase took the policy rate to 0.75%.

Germany

• ZEW Survey Current Situation (Feb / Jan / Est): -65.9 / -72.7 / -65.9
• ZEW Survey Expectations (Feb / Jan / Est): 58.3 / 59.6 / 65.2

UK – Jobless rate at a 5y high in December with a slowdown in wages growth potentially offering room for the BOE to cut rates.

• Unemployment came in at 5.2%, above market expectations.
• The jobless rate among 18-24 year olds continued to rise hitting 14%.
• Higher frequency data showed the market lost 11k jobs in January taking the total to 134k over the last 12 months.
• The pound fell ~0.4% on the news before recovering some of its losses.
• Av Weekly Earnings (3M %yoy, Dec / Nov / Est): 4.2 / 4.6 (revised from 4.7) / 4.6
• Unemployment Rate (Dec / Nov / Est): 5.2 / 5.1 / 5.1

Iran – Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi held talks with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s atomic watchdog, ahead of the second round of talks with the US.

• Sides discussed “proposals” Aragchi will present during indirect talks with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff later today.
• President Trump promised to strike Iran unless Tehran ends its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,921/oz vs US$5,007/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 100.1moz vs 100.1moz previous

Platinum US$2,011/oz vs US$2,047/oz previous

Palladium US$1,676/oz vs US$1,687/oz previous

Silver US$75.0/oz vs US$77.1/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 836.8moz vs 840.1moz previous

Rhodium US$10,700/oz vs US$10,750/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$12,738/t vs US$12,894/t previous

Aluminium US$3,056/t vs US$3,084/t previous

Nickel US$16,945/t vs US$17,000/t previous

Zinc US$3,275/t vs US$3,324/t previous

Lead US$1,955/t vs US$1,956/t previous

Tin US$45,960/t vs US$45,375/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$67.9/bbl vs US$67.6/bbl previous

·         Far East markets are closed for the start of the Chinese Lunar New Year (of the horse), which has resulted in relatively unchanged energy prices as markets await the outcome of ongoing Iran-US and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical talks.

Natural Gas €30.2/MWh vs €30.7/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $88.3/lb vs $88.3/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$96.3/t vs US$96.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$466.1/t vs US$466.1/t

HCC FOB Australia US$247.0/t vs US$247.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$120.0/t vs US$119.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$123,103/t vs US$123,103/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$19,479/t vs US$19,479/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,900/t vs US$1,900/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,648/mtu vs US$1,648/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$131/lb vs US$131/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.5/lb vs US$5.5/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$26.3/kg vs US$26.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$261/t vs US$261/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,959/t vs US$2,959/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,137/t vs US$1,137/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$372.5/t vs US$372.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

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Company News:

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) 3,599p, Mkt Cap £37bn – Strong prices bolster 2025 financial results as company targets a 30% rise in medium term copper production

• Announcing 2025 results CEO Ivan Arriagada described a 52% rise in EBITDA to a record US$5.2bn (2024 – US$3.4bn).
• The improved EBITDA reflects a 30% increase in revenue to US$8.6bn (2024 – US$6.6bn) boosted by a 9% rise in EBITDA margin to over 60% as a result of “robust cost control”.
• Revenue growth was “driven by higher pricing for copper and by-products (gold and molybdenum)”.
• Pre-tax profit rose by over 50% to US$3.2bn (2024 – US$2.1bn) and the company is increasing dividend by 106% to 64.6US¢/share (2024 31.4US¢/share) including a recommended final dividend of 48US¢/share.
• Strong operating cash flow of US$4.3bn left Antofagasta with a closing cash balance of US$4.9bn at 31st December.
• Capital expenditure for the year was US$3.7bn (2024 – US$2.4bn) with the increase mainly incurred on “the Centinela Second Concentrator Project”.
• Exploration costs of US$56m were “in line with the previous year … [and included] … exploration and pre-feasibility study work at the Group's projects in Chile and the Americas”.
• The company reaffirms its previously issued 2026 guidance with copper production expected to improve to 650-700,000t with net costs between $1.15/lb and $1.35/lb as the growth projects at Los Pelambres and the second concentrator at Centinela ramp up.
• By-product output in 2026 is expected to be in the range 215-235koz of gold and 12.5-14.0 tonnes of molybdenum.
• Antofagasta restates its previous confidence in the copper market saying that “Demand continues to be underpinned by energy security, the accelerating electrification of global economies and the increasing adoption of modern technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence, data centres, electric vehicles and smart grids”.
• It sets these demand pressures alongside industry “declining ore grades, harder ores, water scarcity, rising capital intensities and longer permitting timelines, which are limiting the pace at which new supply can be brought to market”.
• Antofagasta aims to address these forces by “actively progressing its growth and development programme, with the construction projects underway at Centinela and Los Pelambres that are expected to deliver 30% growth in production in the medium term, as well as growth in margins”.

Conclusion: Antofagasta has reported strong financial results for 2025 with improved margins helping support a more than doubling of the dividend. The company is targeting a 30% rise in medium term copper output.

BHP (BHP LN) 2,690p,Mkt Cap £136bn – Copper moves into pole position contributing more than half the H1 EBITDA

• Reporting on the six months to 31st December 2025, CEO, Mike Henry says that it passed a landmark for BHP with copper “contributing the largest share of our overall earnings, at 51% of Underlying EBITDA” of US$15.5bn.
• Closing net debt of US$14.7bn compares with US$12.9bn in 2025 and US$9.1bn at the end of June 2024. Gearing is reported at 20.9% (2025 -19.8%).
• Copper’s EBITDA contribution rose by 59% to US$8.0bn (H1 2025 – US$5.0bn) reflecting both high commodity prices and more than 2% demand growth “with large supply disruptions at major copper mines and the threat of tariffs providing positive price momentum”.
• BHP has increased its full FY 2026 copper production guidance to 1.9-2.0mt (previously 1.8-2mt).
• Western Australian iron-ore continues to be a major contributor generating US$7.5bn EBITDA (H1 - 2025 US$7.2bn) at a 62% margin.
• Iron ore prices rose by 4% with both iron ore production and shipments running at record levels.
• Mr. Henry explained that “Consistently strong cash generation and balance sheet strength remain hallmarks of BHP”.
• He also commented on a separate announcement today of a “silver streaming agreement … relating to our share of Antamina's future silver production … [which he described as BHPs most valuable] … ever”.
• “Looking ahead … [Mr. Henry said that BHP expects] … circa 3% global economic growth in CY26. China's economy is resilient after meeting its around 5% target last year. India continues to outperform. We are optimistic that the economic backdrop is supportive for our key commodities”.

Conclusion: BHP expresses confidence in the global economy as its copper division leapfrogs to the highest contributor to EBITDA contributing 51% of the overall US$15.5bn

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 35p, Mkt Cap £257m – Further drilling to upgrade and expand the Pittfield MRE in WA

1. Empire Metals, which released a JORC MRE for its Pitfield Titanium Project in Western Australia in October, confirms the start of a new 41,000m drilling programme to progress the evaluation by upgrading the resources at the Thomas and Cosgrove deposits and expand the drill coverage of the Cosgrove mineralisation.
2. The drilling programme will comprise a total of 34,510m of aircore drilling in 683 holes plus 7,100m of reverse circulation (RC) drilling in a further 71 holes and “is expected to be completed by mid-April”.
3. The new drilling “will cover an area 37km long and up to 12km wide”.
4. The “key outcome of the drilling will be an updated MRE at Thomas, with increased resource classification into the Measured and Indicated categories, and a significantly larger updated MRE at Cosgrove”.
5. The drilling and revised MRE, which are “fully funded … [will] … support ongoing engineering and study work”.
6. Managing Director, Shaun Bunn, said that the planned drilling programme is “the largest undertaken to date at Pitfield and will significantly improve our understanding of the scale and grade of the Pitfield MRE, and also increase the confidence levels of Measured and Indicated Resources in readiness for developing mine design and Ore Reserves”.
7. The October 2025 MRE, which was confined to the in-situ Weathered Zones reported

• Indicated resources of :641mt at 5.3% for 34mt contained; and
• Inferred resources of 1,130mt at 4.8% TiO2 for 54mt contained, totalling
• 1,770mt at 5% TiO2 for 88mt contained at the Thomas deposit; and
• Indicated resources of 56mt at 5.8% TiO2 for 3.25mt contained; and
• Inferred resources of 373mt at 5.7% TiO2 for 21.3mt contained; totalling
• 430mt at 5.8% TiO2 for 24.6mt contained at Cosgrove

1. “Since commencing the maiden drilling campaign at Pitfield on 27 March 2023, Empire has completed 390 drill holes for a total 33,001 metres comprising:

• 25 DD drill holes for 3,449 m
• 140 RC drill holes for 18,764 m
• 225 AC drill holes for 10,797 m”.

1. Mr. Bunn said that the new drilling will upgrade “our maiden MRE from the Thomas and Cosgrove Prospects … [and expand] … the exploration target area”.

Conclusion: The next phase of drilling at Pittfield aims to upgrade the maiden resource released in October and expand the known extent of the mineralised envelope.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) 0.85p, Mkt Cap £32m – Technical report on Karakubis project, Botswana

• Kavango Resources has published the NI43-101 Technical report for its Karakubis project in the Kalahari Copper Belt (KCB) of Botswana on its website https://www.kavangoresources.com/ under Investors/Corporate Information/Reports.
• The announcement confirms that “Diamond drilling at the Karakubis prospect has already intersected copper mineralisation in all seven initial drill holes, supported by spot pxrf readings in excess of 1% copper and evidence of significant hydrothermal alteration”.
• The project area is situated in a favourable geological setting where “folding and D'Kar-Ngwako Pan contact zones … [are] … consistent with major deposits elsewhere in the Belt”.
• The company confirms that it is “evaluating strategic options in relation to its KCB mineral portfolio in Botswana”.

*An SP Angel Analyst holds shares in Kavango

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) 39p, Mkt Cap £236m – MoU for marketing graphite concentrate from Kasiya, Malawi

(Sovereign currently holds 100% of the Kasiya project. Malawi has 10% free carry right. Rio Tinto holds 18.5% of Sovereign Metals)

• Sovereign Metals reports a non-binding MoU with Traxys North America for marketing of graphite from its Kasiya project in Malawi.
• The agreement envisages an initial 40ktpa offtake of graphite concentrate for the first five years subsequently rising to 80ktpa for the balance of the 10 years covered by the MoU.
• The announcement highlights Traxys’ role as “one of only three trading houses appointed to procure critical minerals for the US Government's US$12 billion Project Vault - the newly launched US Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve”.
• It also reminds readers that graphite “is designated a US Critical Mineral by the US Geological Survey and is among the 60 minerals targeted under the stockpiling initiative”.
• Managing Director, Frank Eagar, welcomed the “appointment of Traxys as a potential graphite marketing partner … [and commented that the MoU] … demonstrates growing confidence from major global commodity players in Kasiya's ability to potentially deliver critical minerals at scale from a globally strategic, genuine Tier 1 project”.

Conclusion: The agreement with Traxys for marketing of graphite concentrate from Kasiya is non-binding at this stage but shows a route to market via an influential participant in the US Government’s Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve initiative.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Sovereign Metals. The analyst has visited the Kasiya mine site and highly recommends the Malawi coffee.

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.08p, Mkt Cap £4.6m – Results for the year to September 2025

• Tertiary Minerals reports a loss of £0.58m for the year ending 30th September 2025 (2024 - £0.55m loss) and a closing cash balance of ~£71,000.
• Summarising highlights of the year the Chairman, Patrick Cheetham, describes progress of the Zambian exploration programme as well as developments in Nevada and Sweden.
• Zambian exploration includes joint ventures with First Quantum Minerals, at Mukai, and with KoBold Metals, at Konkola North, as well as the discovery of copper/silver mineralisation at Mushima North, described as “our lead project”.
• Three phases of drilling at Mushima North has delineated the surface expression of mineralisation over an area of “approximately 450m by 400m … [which] … remains open to the north/northwest and south/southeast and… [shows] … potential for primary sulphide mineralisation, underneath the near-surface oxide mineralisation … [which] … is, as yet, largely untested”.
• Tertiary Minerals aims to publish “a Mineral Resource Statement … [for Mushima where work has largely focussed on the A1 target] … later in 2026” and explains its intention to investigate “several additional targets in proximity to Target A1 that warrant follow-up and initial drilling”.
• KoBold has now completed “two deep drill holes into an underexplored part of the Ilunga Basin” at Konkola West earning a 51% interest in the project.
• “The first of these drill holes is believed to have been the deepest drill hole ever drilled on the Zambian Copperbelt (2,711m) … [and today’s announcement confirms that] … Kobold's reported expenditure on this project in our last financial year totalled some US$3.7 million”.
• At Mukai, First Quantum Minerals completed “three scout diamond drill holes to test for copper mineralisation in the Tirosa Basin close to their large copper mining operations at Sentinel”. 
• These holes intersected anomalous copper and “further work is under evaluation”.
• Results from initial drilling of the Brunton Pass copper project in Nevada “confirmed that the main target geophysical anomaly is related to sulphide mineralisation … [with wide] … intervals of anomalous copper, mercury and arsenic … intersected in association with this anomaly and over a wide area”.
• Current thinking is that “to date, only the peripheral parts of the IP anomaly have been intersected at depth and the stronger parts of the anomaly … [which may represent an epithermal precious metal/ porphyry copper system] … remain untested”.
• In Sweden, a decision is awaited on the company’s 2025 appeal “against the Swedish Government's 2004 decision not to grant the exploitation concession” for the Storuman Fluorspar Project. A decision “is not expected before at least the end of March 2026”.
• Commenting on his decision to “relinquish my founding role as Executive Chairman” in favour of non-Executive Chairmanship, Mr. Cheetham looked to the future where “In 2026, we intend to aggressively advance the Mushima North discovery and envisage a number of value-adding steps as we head towards the definition of a maiden mineral resource” as well as progressing the “new and existing joint ventures on other projects”.

Conclusion: Tertiary Minerals moves into a new era as the founding Chairman moves into a non-executive role and the company advances its principal project at Mushima North in Zambia, progresses its joint ventures with First Quantum and KoBold in Zambia and its other North American and European projects.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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