SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 18.02.26

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – FY26 guided to nearly triple copper production

Celsius Resources (CLA LN)  – Progress report on Namibian and Philippines projects and appointment of Chairman

Glencore* (GLEN LN)  – H2 2025 benefits from higher production volumes and commodity prices

Greatland Resources (GGP LN)  – Departure of COO

Great Southern Copper (GSCU LN)  – Further drilling results from Cerro Negro, Chile

Harena Rare Earths* (HREE LN)  – £2.0m equity raise

Rockfire Resources (ROCK LN)  – Latest drilling results from Malaoi, Greece

Gold prices advanced over $4,900/oz as most of Asia remains closed celebrating the Lunar New Year.

• Investors are looking at Fed officials’ comments for clues on the monetary policy as well as awaiting January meeting minutes due later today.
• Fed Governor Michael Barr said that rates should remain steady “for some time” until evidence of slower inflation comes through.
• Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said there is a potential for more rate cuts if inflation continues to downtrend.
• “I do think that if this (tariffs) proves to be transitory, and we can show that we’re on path back to 2% inflation, I still think there’s several more rate cuts that can happen in 22026, but we’ve got to see it,” Goolsbee said.

VOX video:  The most extraordinary week in commodities I've ever witnessed

• Podcast:  The Vox Markets Podcast

IG TV – Commodity Markets Weekly: https://youtu.be/-YKK0NzMLZ0?si=i-83_jtBI8u5bM86

We are now in a new commodities cycle: on VOX: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a

• Podcast: The Vox Markets Podcast / Mining Matters: We are now in a new commodities cycle, says SP Angel's John Meyer

Worth reading - Mineral War: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction by Tomasz Nadrowski

• https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mineral-War-Chinas-Weapons-Destruction/dp/B0GHDYRLZK

Currencies

US$1.1835/eur vs 1.1843/eur previous. Yen 153.68/$ vs 152.76/$. SAr 15.979/$ vs 16.031/$. $1.356/gbp vs $1.359/gbp. 0.707/aud vs 0.707/aud. CNY 6.905/$ vs 6.905/$.

Dollar Index 97.29 vs 97.13 previous.

Economics

US equity futures are trading higher following marginal gains posted on Tuesday as dip buyers stepped in.

• The US$ edged higher with 2y (3.45%, +1bp)and 10y (4.07%, +1bp) yields little changed.
• Money markets continue to price in at least two cuts this year.
• Euro was slightly off on the FT report that Christine Lagarde is expected to leave the ECB in April next year, before her term expires in October.
• An ECB spokesperson said Lagarde “has not taken any decision regarding the end of her term”.

Iran – Discussions between Washington and Tehran are ongoing with the US describing negotiations positively but further progress needed.

• “In some ways it went well, they agreed to meet afterwards, but in other ways it was very clear that the President has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through,” JD Vance said yesterday.
• The US has accumulated a significant military presence in the region.
• The second strike group headed by the USS Gerald R Ford, the world’s largest warship, is on course to the destination and is expected to arrive in the region within the next three weeks.

US/Japan – Japan is to invest up to $36bn in US oil, gas and critical mineral projects as the first tranche of the agreed $550bn commitment.

• The investment includes a natural gas facility in Ohio, a deepwater crude export facility in the Gulf of Mexico and a synthetic industrial diamond manufacturing facility.
• “Our MASSIVE Trade Deal with Japan has just launched!” Trump posted Tuesday on social media.
• “The scale of these projects are so large and could not be done without one very special word, TARIFFS.”

UK – Inflation slowed in January, although, core and services measures came in ahead of forecasts.

• Headline CPI came in at 3.0%, the lowest since March last year.
• Market odds of a rate cut were little changed with two 25bp moves expected for the year.
• CPI (%mom, Jan / Dec / Est): -0.5 / 0.4 / -0.5
• CPI (%yoy, Jan / Dec / Est): 3.0 / 3.4 / 3.0
• Core CPI (%yoy Jan / Dec / Est): 3.1 / 3.2 / 3.0
• Services CPI (%yoy Jan / Dec / Est): 4.4 / 4.5 / 4.3

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,926/oz vs US$4,921/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 100.1moz vs 100.1moz previous

Platinum US$2,047/oz vs US$2,011/oz previous

Palladium US$1,717/oz vs US$1,676/oz previous

Silver US$76.0/oz vs US$75.0/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 836.8moz vs 836.8moz previous

Rhodium US$10,700/oz vs US$10,700/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$12,719/t vs US$12,738/t previous

Aluminium US$3,050/t vs US$3,056/t previous

Nickel US$16,890/t vs US$16,945/t previous

Zinc US$3,295/t vs US$3,275/t previous

Lead US$1,946/t vs US$1,955/t previous

Tin US$45,685/t vs US$45,960/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$67.8/bbl vs US$67.9/bbl previous

• European energy prices edged lower on milder weather forecasts as France's nuclear generation rose 8% w/w to 84% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.

Natural Gas €29.6/MWh vs €30.2/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $88.8/lb vs $88.3/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$95.9/t vs US$96.3/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$466.1/t vs US$466.1/t

HCC FOB Australia US$247.0/t vs US$247.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$121.0/t vs US$120.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$123,103/t vs US$123,103/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$19,479/t vs US$19,479/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,900/t vs US$1,900/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,648/mtu vs US$1,648/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$131/lb vs US$131/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.5/lb vs US$5.5/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$26.3/kg vs US$26.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$261/t vs US$261/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,959/t vs US$2,959/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,137/t vs US$1,137/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$372.5/t vs US$372.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Company News:

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) 294p, Mkt Cap £336m – FY26 guided to nearly triple copper production

BUY

• The Company released 2026 guidance for its operations in Azerbaijan.
• FY26 production guidance (100%):
  • Copper 20.0-25.0kt (2025: 7.9kt)
  • Gold 28.0-33.0koz (2025: 25.1koz)
  • Silver 170-210koz (2025: 153koz)
• AISC guidance:
  • $1,500-1,800/oz for gold (post PSA)
  • $6,800-7,800/t for copper (post PSA)
  • Copper AISC excludes annual Demirli plant lease fee that adds extra ~$1,000/t if accounted for
• Higher copper production is attributed to full year contribution from Demirli copper and Gilar gold/copper mines.
• With Demirli ramping up to targeted ~15ktpa Cu run rates, 2026 represents the first full year for the Group as a multi-asset producer.

Conclusion: 2026 guidance implies a nearly doubling of Group production on gold/copper equivalent basis driven by a nearly three times increase in copper output. FY26 is set to be the first full year with two operations online helping the Group risk profile. Newly commissioned underground Gilar copper/gold mine is supplying higher grade feed to the Gedabek processing facilities (est 100% of precious metals production and ~8kt Cu) while larger scale Demirli is ramping up to targeted 15ktpa Cu run rates (est ~14kt Cu). FY26 will see copper accounting for nearly 2/3s of Group production in line with the strategy to become a predominantly copper producer with a further two greenfield copper projects in the organic growth pipeline (Xarxar and Garadag).

Strong gold/copper production could not have been timed better with both copper and gold prices trading close to record high levels. We see revenues hitting >$300M and EBITDA ~$150M with scope to outperform on stronger commodity prices (post Demirli license fee and on our ~$11,500/$4,200 copper/gold price assumptions). FY26 is set to be a turnaround year both operationally and financially with the team focused on growing copper production further.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Anglo Asian Mining. The analyst has visited the Gedabek and Gilar mines as well as the Xarxar and Garadag projects.

Celsius Resources (CLA LN) 1.08p, Mkt Cap £38m – Progress report on Namibian and Philippines projects and appointment of Chairman

• Celsius Resources has issued a progress report on its plans to divest its 95% owned Namibian project, Opuwo.
• The company says that it has received “several non-binding offers … [and is ] … progressing three … on a non-exclusive basis as the parties arrange site visits and further due diligence”.
• The company also reports that, following the failure of Sodor Inc, which holds 60% of the company’s operating company for the MCB project in the Philippines (MMCI), to “satisfy its funding commitments and complete the agreed documentation… [it has] … exercised its contractual rights to require Sodor to relinquish the 60% shareholding in MMCI”.
• Celsius Resources has also confirmed the appointment of “long-standing Non-Executive Director”, Peter Hume, as interim Non-Executive Chairman.
• Mr. Hume “has been involved with the MCB Project prior to its acquisition and inception into Celsius. He has played a central role in the Project's advancement from its earliest stages and has been instrumental in guiding its technical, permitting and strategic development in country”.

Glencore* (GLEN LN) 502p, Mkt Cap £57bn – H2 2025 benefits from higher production volumes and commodity prices

• Reporting preliminary results for what CEO, Gary Nagle, described as “a year of significant progress” Glencore reports 2025 Adjusted EBITDA of US$13.5bn (2024 – US$14.4bn) with the second half “Adjusted EBITDA of $8.1 billion … 49% higher than H1, reflecting higher metals prices and improved production volumes”.
• Mr. Nagle confirmed that “For the second consecutive year, we met our guidance for full year production volumes for our key commodities”.
• Industrial operations contributed US$9.9bn (74%) to the adjusted EBITDA with the balance generated by marketing.
• Within the industrial segment, metals & minerals contributed US$7.0bn (71%) with energy and steelmaking coal adding a further US$3.7bn offset by US$0.8bn of corporate and other costs.
• Led by the Collahuasi mine, which generated US$1.4bn at a margin of 65%, copper dominated the metals & minerals contributing US$3.9bn (56%) to its EBITDA (2024 – US$3.7bn) with zinc adding a further 33% - US$2.3bn (2024 – US$1.5bn).
• Antamina and other S American copper production each contributed in excess of US$1bn EBITDA.
• Glencore also comments that “Copper treatment charges, relevant to our custom metallurgical operations, remained deeply negative throughout the year, while zinc TCs saw a recovery from the extreme lows recorded in late 2024”.
• Coal operations generated US$3.4bn (2024 – US$5.0bn) “reflecting the significantly lower coal prices, with the Adjusted EBITDA mining margin reducing to 26% from 36% in 2024”.
• In a separate announcement today, Glencore confirms that it “has reached agreement with Gécamines regarding land access for Kamoto Copper Company” (KCC) in the DRC.
• The agreement is expected to facilitate the “Expansion of tailings storage facility and waste rock dump capacities, enabling KCC life of mine extension … [and will help to] … maximise recovery of ore reserves within existing KCC exploitation permits”.
• Glencore clarifies that “Gécamines maintains the rights to any ore reserves extracted from within the leased land package”.

Conclusion Glencore saw a rebound of ~50% in H2 as commodity prices and increased production volumes left full year 2025 EBITDA only around 6% below 2024 levels. Copper continues to be the major contributor within the metals and minerals segment.

*An SP Angel Analyst holds shares in Glencore

Greatland Resources (GGP LN) 641p, Mkt Cap £4,307m – Departure of COO

·         Greatland Resources reports the resignation of Chief Operating Officer, Simon Tyrell, who will be “available to the Company until 30 June 2026 to assist with the transition of the role”.

·         The Group’s Mining Engineer, Otto Richter, will serve as interim COO while a permanent appointee is sought.

·         Describing Simon Tyrell’s role as “an important part of Greatland's management team … [Managing Director, Shaun Day thanked him for his contribution and wished] … him well in his future endeavours”.

Great Southern Copper (GSCU LN) 2.85p, Mkt Cap £22m – Further drilling results from Cerro Negro, Chile

• Great Southern Copper reports that the recently completed its third phase of drilling at its Cerro Negro prospect in the Especularita project area in Chile has confirmed mineralisation extending and becoming wider at depth .
• The drilling also shows “high-grade lenses occurring within a wider lower-grade envelope of mineralisation … [with anomalous lead/zinc] … mineralisation including low-grade Cu-Ag … [suggesting the] … potential for a zoned mineral system and could extend the potential deposit width to over 80 metres thick”.
• Hole DD-034, drilled into the ‘Lens 5’ structure at Mostaza intersected 5m at an average grade of 0.48% copper and 45.22g/t silver from 62m depth which the company says “significantly expands the copper endowment potential of the Cu-Ag discovery within the near-Mostaza environment”.
• Chief Executive, Sam Garrett, explained that “confirmation of deeper high-grade mineralisation in DD033 and DD036, marks an important step forward in our understanding of the Mostaza system where we are now consistently intersecting multiple stacked high-grade copper-silver lenses developed within a broader mineralised envelope”.
• He said that further results of the Phase 3 drilling “are awaited … [and that planning] … is now at an advanced stage for Phase IV drilling at Cerro Negro which we hope will build on this momentum and further define the broader-scale potential of the system”.

Conclusion: Recent drilling at Cerro Negro indicates that wider mineralisation is present at depth with higher grade lenses hosted within a broader, lower-grade, envelope. Planning for the next phase of drilling is underway.

Harena Rare Earths* (HREE LN) 2.5p, Mkt Cap £14m – £2.0m equity raise

• The Company raises £2.0m at 2.2p to progress the Ampasindava Ionic Clay REE Project in Madagascar.
• The issue price implies a ~8% discount to the last close.
• Proceeds to be used for:
  • Development works at the Project
  • US International Development Finance Corporation discussions
  • Ongoing working capital requirements

*SP Angel acts as Broker for Harena

Rockfire Resources (ROCK LN) 0.19p, Mkt Cap £17m – Latest drilling results from Malaoi, Greece

• Yesterday, Rockfire Resources reported the completion of the 5th hole of its current resource upgrade drilling campaign (HMO-012) at the Molaoi zinc exploration project in Greece with the hole reaching a final depth of 253.80m.
• The company also released assay results from the 3rd hole of the programme (Hole HMO-010) including:
  • A 1.2m wide interval at an average grade of 5.5% zinc, 18g/t silver and 54g/t germanium from a depth of 97.50m: and
  • A 5.6m intersection averaging 1.3% zinc, 16g/t silver from 195.45m depth including a section of 0.6m width at a grade of 5.6% zinc and 19g/t germanium; and
  • 0.7m at a grade of 4.7% zinc, 22g/t silver and 29g/t germanium from 238.74m; and
  • 4.0m at an average grade of 5.1% zinc, 23g/t silver and 15g/t germanium from 256.50m depth, including 2.3m averaging 8.2% zinc, 22.3g/t silver and 17.7g/t germanium.
• The announcement confirms that “Assay results from hole HMO-011 are awaited and core from hole HMO-012 will shortly be sent to the laboratory”.
• CEO, David Price commented that “High grade zinc and associated germanium is being consistently encountered at Molaoi … [and also said that the] … variation in width of the lodes is well demonstrated in this hole and importantly, the grades remain very impressive. Where the lodes become narrower, the higher grades compensate for the width”.
• The announcement also confirms that the arrival of a second drilling rig on site is still awaited but is expected “soon”.

Conclusion: Drilling, which is expected to continue for the majority of 2026, is continuing at Maloai and is awaiting the arrival of a second rig.  The latest assay results continue to show zinc mineralisation accompanied by silver and germanium and the company notes that width variations in the mineralised structure may be partially offset with grade variations showing higher grades in the narrower structures.

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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