SP Angel . Morning View . Friday 19.12.25

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Aurum Resources (AUE AU) – Drilling results from Boundiali

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) –Tax proposals updated for Zimbabwean gold miners

Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – Interims highlight commissioning of Bougouni, export permits and first concentrate shipments

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – Aldeia A Mining Lease acquisition completion

Talon Metals (TLO CN) – Acquisition of Eagle mine from Lundin Mining, Lundin to hold 19.9% interest

Lithium – Asking prices jump for 5% Spodumene jump to $1,517/t from $1,150/t for CIF China

• Prices are driving higher with the authorities still questioning the permitting of CATL’s Jianxiawo lepidolite mine in Yichun
• The mine is said to be suspended till at least after the Spring Festival.
• While the authorities are questioning CATL over expired mining permits the suspension also suits China’s new Anti-Involution drive.
• Feedstock prices are being allowed and even potentially encouraged to rise to support Chinese lithium miners which largely control the market.
• Higher Spodumene / Lithium hydroxide prices may hit new Western Li-ion battery manufacturers but in China will purely offset some of the falling cost of battery production.
• We see potential for China’s Anti Involution policies to start the export of inflation, particularly if in a stronger yuan environment.

Gold ($4,330/oz) prices stabilise at key level following yesterday’s post-CPI spike

• Gold prices continue to consolidate, having broken out of their recent trading range last week.
• The metal jumped to $4,370/oz intermittently yesterday, following softer-than-expected CPI data from the US.
• We suspect 2026 will see gold benefit from tailwinds including increased easing policies globally as the rate cutting cycle continues.
• Central Bank reserve diversification strikes us a long-term trend, with China expected to add further to bullion reserves.

IG TV Commodity Corner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7en9LCuurE 

ii TV - Macro trends, indicators, small caps.

• Precious metals, gold and copper : https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125894076/5ccc1f796b
• FTSE 100 stocks, small-cap and lithium: https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125892775/a44f96f5a1

Economics

EU – Leaders failed to agree on the use of frozen Russian sovereign assets to fund military help to Ukraine.

• Instead, the EU agreed to provide €90B in interest free loans to Ukraine to be funded by internal borrowing.

Japan – The BOJ lifts rates by 25bp to 0.75%, in line with expectations.

• The decision was unanimous.
• Commenting on potential further raises, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda was non committal.
• “Our estimate on Japan’s neutral rate sits on a pretty wide range. It’s hard to set a pinpoint estimate… We’d like to look at how the economy and prices react to each change in short-term rate,” said Ueda.
• Benchmark 10y yields climbed over 2% for the first time sine late 1990s.

UK – Retails sales came in weaker than expected in November highlighting subdued mood among consumers.

• Sales volumes were down 0.1%mom following a revised drop of 0.9%mom in October.
• Market estimates were for growth in November.

Currencies

US$1.1709/eur vs 1.1729/eur previous. Yen 156.87/$ vs 155.84/$. SAr 16.768/$ vs 16.779/$. $1.337/gbp vs $1.337/gbp. 0.661/aud vs 0.661/aud. CNY 7.041/$ vs 7.042/$.

Dollar Index 98.66 vs 98.44 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,328/oz vs US$4,326/oz previous

Gold ETFs 98.3moz vs 98.3moz previous

Platinum US$1,939/oz vs US$1,948/oz previous

Palladium US$1,701/oz vs US$1,694/oz previous

Silver US$65.9/oz vs US$66.2/oz previous

Rhodium US$8,050/oz vs US$8,025/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$11,794/t vs US$11,725/t previous

Aluminium US$2,928/t vs US$2,894/t previous

Nickel US$14,785/t vs US$14,485/t previous

Zinc US$3,058/t vs US$3,055/t previous

Lead US$1,973/t vs US$1,954/t previous

Tin US$43,420/t vs US$42,600/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$59.6/bbl vs US$60.2/bbl previous

• US Henry Hub prices edged lower on forecasts for warmer weather as the EIA reported a large 167bcf w/w draw to 3,579bcf (-169bcf expected) and storage inventories now 1.7% below last year’s level and 0.9% above the five-year average.
• Masdar announced the start of commercial operations at its 20MW/40MWh capacity battery energy storage system (BESS) facility in northwest England, with similar developments currently ongoing at its Chesterfield (150MWh) and Cardiff (300MWh) BESS projects.

Natural Gas €28.0/MWh vs €27.5/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $79.2/lb vs $79.3/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$104.7/t vs US$104.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$459.4/t vs US$459.1/t

HCC FOB Australia US$212.3/t vs US$210.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$106.0/t vs US$106.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$52,790/t vs US$52,790/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$81,662/t vs US$81,937/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$13,918/t vs US$13,774/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,180/t vs US$1,150/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$913/mtu vs US$903/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$98/lb vs US$98/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.3/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$259/t vs US$259/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$3,013/t vs US$3,013/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,115/t vs US$1,115/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$357.5/t vs US$357.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Company news

Aurum Resources (AUE AU) A$0.6, Mkt Cap A$209m – Drilling results from Boundiali

• Aurum reports drilling from its 100,000m infill programme at the 2.41moz Boundiali Gold Project in Cote d’Ivoire.
• The Company is aiming to grow and increase confidence in the Boundiali BMT3 deposit.
• Drilling from BMT3 returned highlights of:
  • 10m at 6.05g/t Au from 126m
  • 2.2m at 23.7g/t Au from 94m
  • 4.3m at 5.4g/t Au from 217m
  • 1.5m at 13g/t Au from 106m
  • 8.5m at 2.15g/t Au from 73m
• Company suggests mineralisation remains open along strike and at depth at the deposit.
• Two new rigs have been added, for a total of 12 now drilling.
• Company is aiming to complete 130,000m of drilling at Boundiali and Napie in CY25.
• An MRE update is due 1Q26.
• A PFS is due 1Q26.

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) 1,939p, Mkt Cap £347m –Tax proposals updated for Zimbabwean gold miners

• Caledonia has provided an update on proposed changes to the royalty and tax regimes for gold miners in Zimbabwe.
• Royalty rates will now increase from 5% to 10% when the gold price exceeds $5,000/oz (previously $2,500/oz).
• A tax treatment of CAPEX, where the current 100% upfront deduction would be spread over the life of the project, has been withdrawn.
• A change to levy withholding tax at 15% on interest payable on offshore loans has also been withdrawn.
• Caledonia had expected to fund a large portion of the Bilboes Gold Project with offshore debt.
• Proposed changes are expected to be ratified by parliament before the end of the year.

Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) 0.31p, Mkt Cap £63m – Interims highlight commissioning of Bougouni, export permits and first concentrate shipments

• Operationally, the Company was focused on ramping up Stage 1 (DMS) production.
• The team secured an initial export permit for 125kt SC in September.
• The Company had >45kt SC (~5.4% Li2O) onsite awaiting shipment at the time.
• First 29kt left the site and trucked to the port of San Pedro in Cote d’Ivoire (880km) in November.
• From July to September during wet season months, the pit filled with water, as was expected, and the mining fleet was unable to access the base of the pit.
• Mining operations refocused on waste stripping, repair and maintenance of the haul roads ahead of restarting mining activities in the pit in November.
• The team carried a series of maintenance checks, engineering improvements and 'de-bottlenecking' initiatives to improve the plant performance from late August to late September.
• The plant is expected to run at nameplate (100ktpm ore and 10ktpm SC) in due course.
• On security, the Company acknowledges increased risks with incidents reported in the southern Mali, the area that was historically more stable.
• The team is working closely with the government and the military presence at the Bougouni area and on site was increased.
• PAT -£355k (1HFY25: -£1,486k).
• Admin costs incl share based payments -£757k (1HFY25: -£843k)
• Kodal closing cash balance £15.6m (Mar25: £16.9m) with not debt.
• Attributable KMUK JV (49% Kodal) profit £218k (1HFY25: -£832k) driven by a £4.4m FX gain.
• First concentrate shipments completed in December with no revenues booked in 1HFY26.
• KMUK had £27m in inventories, £56m in payables (incl loans from Hainan and Kodal) and £1m in cash as of Sep25.
• An increase in working capital drag reflects a build up in produced spodumene concentrate that was awaiting export permits and shipments in 1HFY26.
• Post reporting period the Company trucked to port and shipped first concentrate with maiden payment $21m (for 95% of product) received in mid December.
• With permits secured, operations ramping up to nameplate capacities and lithium prices strengthening expect working capital to unwind in coming quarters.

Conclusion: Interims mark a major transition from commissioning to early operations at Bougouni, with export permits secured, first concentrate shipped and maiden cash receipts received post period end. While wet-season and awaiting export permits contributed to a build up in working capital weighing on FCF generation, the ramp-up toward nameplate capacity, improving logistics visibility and firmer lithium prices should support a normalisation of cash flows and working capital over the coming quarters.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Kodal

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 4.0p, Mkt Cap £103m – Aldeia A Mining Lease acquisition completion

BUY – 18.5p

• The Company completes the acquisition of the Aldeia Mining Lease at the Barroso Lithium Project, Portugal.
• Authorities are transferring the C-190 Mining Lease (Aldeaia Mining Lease) to the Company.
• The lease has an initial duration of 25y and can be extended twice (for 15y and a further 10y).
• €3.25m acquisition price with €2.95m currently outstanding to DGEG (Directorate General for Energy and Geology) with first payment of €55k due upon official transfer and the balance due in 71 monthly instalments (~6y).
• Aldeia Mining Lease hosts higher grade Aldeia Block A MRE (3.5mt at 1.30%) that remains open both on strike and at depth.
• The area also features an exploration target of 2-4mt at 1.0-1.3% at Block A as well as further -10mt at 0.9-1.2% (Block B) and 2.0-4.0mt at 1.1-1.5% (Block C).

Conclusion: The Company completes the acquisition of Aldeia Mining Lease with authorities in the process of transferring the license to Savannah. The acquisition consolidates Aldeia into the project area and offers an option to bring higher grade Adeia feed forward in the FS mine plan (1.3% vs 1.05% MRE average).

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Savannah Resources

Talon Metals (TLO CN) C$0.42, Mkt Cap C$481m – Acquisition of Eagle mine from Lundin Mining, Lundin to hold 19.9% interest

• Talon Metals has agreed a deal with Lundin Mining to combine Lundin’s Eagle Mine and Humboldt Mill with Talon’s Tamarack Nickel-Copper project.
• Talon will also secure Lundin’s 400,000 acre exploration land package in Michigan, including the Boulderdash nickel/copper discovery.
• Talon will issue 275m shares to Lundin, representing 18.7% of the Company for an implied valuation of $84m.
• Lundin Mining will hold 19.99% of Talon.
• The Lundin Family will also subscribe for a $5.6m private placement.
• Jack Lundin, CEO of Lundin Mining, will join the board.
• Talon will look to deploy positive cash flow from Eagle to extending the Eagle mine life and advancing Tamarack and boosting exploration in Michigan.
• Eagle has produced 194kt Ni and 185kt Cu since the start of operations.
• Lundin Mining is aiming to simplify its asset base as it advances the Vicuna District.
• Tamarack Project:
  • Indicated resource of 8.6mt at 1.73% Ni and 8.5mt at 0.83% Ni inferred.
  • Recent drilling identified high-grade Vault Zone, which intercepted 47m of 11% Ni and 11.4% Cu below the existing resource.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.

This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.

This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II - Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return

SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange.