Broker Oak Securities has set a 35.7p target for Blencowe Resources (BRES ), the company developing the major Orom-Cross graphite project in Uganda.
Blencowe recently released an updated version of its definitive feasibility study for Orom-Cross which boosted the post-tax net present value by 15% to US$1.254 billion.
The post post-tax internal rate of return was set at 51%.
“The updated DFS centres on a two-phase operation and contains several changes compared to the previous study, including revised product pricing assumptions, operational costs, and updates to the development timeline,” the Oak Securities commentary said.
“The estimated capital cost to construct the mine at Orom-Cross remains low for both phases of the mine's development. Phase 1 is modelled at a production level of 20,000 tonnes per annum of 97% total graphitic carbon (TGC) concentrate plus up to 3,000 tpa of spheronised graphite produced at an in-country beneficiation facility, and Phase 1 has a capex of US$45 million.”
Phase 2, added Oak, models production increasing to 70,000 tpa of 97% TGC concentrate, plus up to 10,000 tpa spheronised and purified graphite, plus expandable graphite, from in-country beneficiation, has a capex of US$125 million.
“Since the publication of the previous DFS in December 2025, Blencowe Resources has announced the results from its 6,750-metre stage seven drill programme at the Orom-Cross graphite project, and defined maiden resource estimates at the Iyan and Beehive deposits. The resource estimates at Iyan and Beehive have increased the scale of Blencowe’s resource base by 168% to a total of 64.3 million tonnes at an average grade of 6.0% TGC. The updated May 2026 DFS is focused on the JORC 2012 compliant Reserve Estimate for the Orom-Cross deposit of 23.1 Mt at an average grade of 5.18% TGC.”
But there’s more.
“Blencowe could further improve the robust economics for the OromCross project by converting the expanded resource base into reserves to potentially extend the mine life or increase production levels,” continued Oak.
“We have updated our valuation to reflect the improved NPV at the Orom-Cross project, and we have also taken into account changes to the valuations of the graphite peer group. As a result of these changes, we maintain our buy rating and have increased our price target by 6% to 35.7p from 33.7p per share.
View from Vox
The 35.7p target price set by Oak is a long way from the current 8p price, and shows just how much upside there is to Blencowe. The NPV runs into the billions, the IRR is a handsome 51%, and the resource could yet still grow. The big hurdle now, of course, is financing. But talks on that have been ongoing for some time, so it wouldn’t be surprising if news on funding came through sooner or later. How exactly that fundraising is divided up will, of course, be key. But once it’s done, the difference between Oak’s valuation and the market price could start to narrow very rapidly.