Research on tinyBuild Inc. (TBLD:LON) from Progressive Equity Research
SAND debuted last week and has since notched up 38,336 peak concurrent users – a record. As #25 on Steam wishlists, SAND is a major release, coming after six and a half years of development. The launch dovetailed into tinyBuild’s upbeat AGM trading update (18 June), with news of ‘ahead of expectations’ revenue and confidence on delivering 2026 results ‘at least in line with expectations’. Taken together, tinyBuild is delivering on its pipeline with continued sequential momentum, underpinning expectations and with an expanding pipeline (note: Last Harbor). tinyBuild cautions on the challenging macro backdrop but is nurturing pipeline, focused on the back catalogue, and managing cash (low point: summer 2026). As CEO Alex Nichiporchik comments, the company is ‘finally seeing the payoff from the work we've put into new IP’. Recoveries are often punctuated by faltering, uneven performance, and wishlists do not turn into unit sales in a straight line, but the Steam ‘tell’ suggests that forecast risk is on the upside. Trading on 7.2x EV/EBITDA, we believe the share price does not reflect the recovery payback: better earnings/better rating.
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