Research on Craneware plc (CRW:LON) from Capital Access Group
Following a strong 1HFY26 performance, Craneware has released a trading statement for the year to 30 June identifying an unexpected slowdown in 340B transactions revenue. While customer demand and cash generation have remained strong throughout the year, revenue is now expected to be US$205-US$208m with Adjusted EBITDA of US$65-US$67m, broadly in line with FY25 but materially below market expectations for FY26. We reduce our forecasts in line with revised guidance, essentially postponing anticipated growth by a year. We believe the shortfall in anticipated 340B revenue is primarily driven by the hiatus in US drug policy during the year and do not believe there is any significant change in the market opportunity in this business. Mechanically, our discounted cash flow valuation reduces by 5% to 2,945p however, that is still double the current share price. We note that Craneware completed its US$25m share repurchase programme in May and we have made no change to our dividend forecast.
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