SP Angel . Morning View . Friday 17.10.25

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Allied Gold (AAUC CN) – C$175m raise to fund Sadiola and Kurmuk expansion and development

European Lithium (EUR AU)– Further sale of US$50m worth of CRML shares

Critical Metals (CRML US)

Iluka Resources (ILK AU) – Update on synthetic rutile outlook

Jubilee Metals (JLP LN) – South African sale expected to complete this year

K92 Mining (KNT AU) – Plant expansion for 300kozpa AuEq nearing completion

Talga Group (TLG AU)– A$13m grant from Swedish government

Gold ($4,338/oz) rallies again as regional bank sell-off spooks market

• Gold prices jumped again yesterday and have sustained strength today, easing slightly from record highs of $4,379/oz.
• The metal has now climbed from $2,540/oz over the past 12 months.
• Concern is mounting over US lending, with the regional bank index down 3.4% yesterday, with Zions Bancorp selling off 14%, and Western Alliance down 11%.
• Larger banks are also under pressure, with Jefferies down 11% yesterday following the fall-out from First Brands and Tricolor bankruptcies.
• JPM CEO Dimon stated on Tuesday in an Tuesday that ‘when you see one cockroach, there are probably more, and so everyone should be forewarned of this one.’
• The VIX has spiked 24% over the past week and US Treasuries are rallying as investors seek haven assets.
• This has added to the ongoing US Government shutdown and increased trade tensions between the US and China, creating a supportive environment for gold prices.

Trump is set to have talks with Zelenskyy later today following a phone call with Putin on Thursday.

• Zelenskyy team has been pushing theUS administration to ramp up military assistance including providing long range Tomahhawk missiles.
• “The language of strength and justice will inevitably work against Russia as well… We can already see that Moscow is rushing to resume dialogue as soon as it hears about Tomahawks,” FT wrote.
• Trump is planning to meet with Putin in Hungary “within two weeks or so”.
• Senior US and Russian officials would speak next week to lay the groundwork for the meeting.
• That was the first direct conversation between US and Russian leaders following a meeting in Alaska that failed to deliver a ceasefire agreement..

IG TV Commodity Corner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7en9LCuurE 

ii TV - Macro trends, indicators, small caps.

• Precious metals, gold and copper : https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125894076/5ccc1f796b
• FTSE 100 stocks, small-cap and lithium: https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125892775/a44f96f5a1

Economics

Currencies

US$1.1704/eur vs 1.1651/eur previous. Yen 149.64/$ vs 151.01/$. SAr 17.439/$ vs 17.351/$. $1.344/gbp vs $1.342/gbp. 0.645/aud vs 0.650/aud. CNY 7.127/$ vs 7.125/$.

Dollar Index 98.22 vs 98.67 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,344/oz vs US$4,230/oz previous

Gold ETFs 98.1moz vs 97.8moz previous

Platinum US$1,695/oz vs US$1,659/oz previous

Palladium US$1,581/oz vs US$1,541/oz previous

Silver US$54.1/oz vs US$52.8/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,900/oz vs US$7,625/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$10,516/t vs US$10,609/t previous

Aluminium US$2,772/t vs US$2,761/t previous

Nickel US$15,140/t vs US$15,225/t previous

Zinc US$2,940/t vs US$2,955/t previous

Lead US$1,975/t vs US$1,982/t previous

Tin US$35,440/t vs US$35,540/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$60.7/bbl vs US$62.5/bbl previous

• Brent crude oil prices fell towards $60/bbl after President Trump indicated that high level talks would take place over the next couple of weeks aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine war.
• The EIA estimated a w/w US inventory build of 3.5mb to crude, offset by draws of 0.3mb to gasoline and 4.5mb to distillate stocks, as refinery maintenance season caused utilisation to fall 6.7% to 85.7% on domestic output of 13.6mb/d. The API estimated a w/w build of 3.5mb to crude, offset by draws of 0.3mb to gasoline and 4.5mb to distillate stocks.
• US Henry Hub natural gas prices also declined on forecasts for warmer-than-normal conditions this month as the EIA reported an 80bcf w/w build to 3,721bcf (+81bcf expected), with storage inventories 0.7% above last year’s level and 4.3% above the 5-year average.
• Petrofac confirmed to the market that no residual value would be retained by existing shareholders in the proposed corporate restructuring, which is expected to complete by the end of November.

Natural Gas €32.1/MWh vs €32.2/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $79.4/lb vs $79.6/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$105.0/t vs US$105.5/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$445.8/t vs US$446.6/t

HCC FOB Australia US$191.8/t vs US$190.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$108.3/t vs US$106.3/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$42,725/t vs US$42,725/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$72,473/t vs US$73,336/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,313/t vs US$10,036/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$835/t vs US$830/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$623/mtu vs US$623/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$93/lb vs US$93/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$395/t vs US$395/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.6/kg vs US$23.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$273/t vs US$273/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,101/t vs US$1,102/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

China’s EV exports doubled in September as domestic market still experiencing overcapacity

• China’s EV exports hit 220,000 units in September, up 102% yoy, driven by demand in Europe, Southeast Asia and Latin America.
• Domestic EV sales rose 26% to 1.37m units amid intense price competition among BYD, Geely, and Tesla.
• BYD led exports with 112,000 vehicles shipped, up 92% yoy with Geely and Chery exporting 38,000 and 24,000 respectively.
• The surge comes despite EU and US tariffs targeting Chinese-made EVs.
• Analysts say overcapacity and slowing domestic growth are pushing automakers to accelerate overseas expansion.



Company news

Allied Gold (AAUC CN) C$27, Mkt Cap C$3bn – C$175m raise to fund Sadiola and Kurmuk expansion and development

• Diversified African miner Allied Gold announced an offering of C$175m at C$27.35/share yesterday.
• Underwriters hold an option to purchase an additional 15% .
• Proceeds to be used for:
  • Funding next phase of expansion at Sadiola by boosting processing capacity
  • Modifying plant at Kurmuk to boost processing capacity
  • Transition to owner mining at one or more operations
  • ‘to take advantage of corporate and asset-based opportunities which may arise’
• Allied suggests asset-based opportunities would ‘mostly be cash flow generating’ with the company preferring to ‘use cash rather than shares as much as possible.’

European Lithium (EUR AU) A$0.47, Mkt Cap A$674m – Further sale of US$50m worth of CRML shares

Critical Metals (CRML US) $19.4, Mkt Cap $2.0bn

• European Lithium sold a further 3m CRML shares at US$16.5 for net proceeds of $50m
• This is the third sale of CRML shares this month that netted EUR >US$120m.
• EUR continues to hold ~53m shares in CRML valued ~$1bn (at last $19.4 close).
• Separately, CRML announced a $50m equity raise to advance the Tanbreez REE Project, Greenland.

Iluka Resources (ILK AU) A$8.1, Mkt Cap A$3.5bn – Update on synthetic rutile outlook

• Australian mineral sands producer Iluka reports it has withdrawn guidance for synthetic rutile sales.
• The move follows LB Group’s purchase of Venator’s TiO2 dioxide manufacturing site at Greatham UK.
• LB has reported that Greatham is idled and may stay shutdown until the agreement is completed.
• Iluka has sold 11kt synthetic rutile to Venator to date, with an additional 11kt shipped.
• Iluka is contracted to supply an additional 36kt to Venator in 2025 and 63kt and 35kt in 2026 and 2027 respectively.
• Iluka reports it has not received notice from Venator regarding obligations to purchase synthetic rutile.
• They are currently in discussions with other Western pigment producers given demand conditions in the pigment market.
• Contractual rights discussions are ongoing, with the Company expecting a ‘rebalancing of some customer obligations over 2025 and 2026.’

Jubilee Metals (JLP LN) 2.8p, Mkt Cap £88m – South African sale expected to complete this year

• Jubilee Metals provides an update on its South African operations to 1QFY26.
• The Company is advancing the sale of its South African Chrome and PGM operations, with Jubilee expecting to complete the sale by year-end.
• Jubilee received the first $15m in cash for the sale consideration in August.
• The assets are expected to produce 1.65-1.8mt chrome concentrate and 36-40koz PGMs.

K92 Mining (KNT AU) C$21, Mkt Cap C$5bn – Plant expansion for 300kozpa AuEq nearing completion

• PNG gold miner K92 reports an update on its expansion progress at the Kainantu Gold Mine.
• The Company has produced its first commercial grade gold-copper-silver concentrate and is beginning shipments from the new 1.2mtpa Stage 3 Expansion plant.
• Company reports the PNG Prime Minister visited site for a gold pour.
• The Stage 3 Expansion Plant is on track for commissioning completion in 4Q25.
• Stage 3 is expected to boost production to 300kozpa AuEq.
• Stage 4, targeted for late 2027, will aim to boost throughput to 1.8mtpa for >400kozpa AuEq.

Talga Group (TLG AU) A$0.5, Mkt Cap A$235m – A$13m grant from Swedish government

• The Company secures A$13.3m state aid for the Lulea Anode Refinery.
• The grant is provided by the Swedish Energy Agency under the Industrial Leap programme.
• Proceeds to be disbursed in full in 4Q25 and partly fund A$30.8m programme validating processes at near industrial scale facility for production of active anode material from natural and recycled graphite.
• The programme to be completed by 30 June 2026.
• The Company is advancing towards FID on the commercial scale Luela Anode Refinery after having secured an EC backed €70m grant last year.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.

This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.

This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II - Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return

SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange.