SP Angel . Morning View . Thursday 02.04.26

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

The Morning View will be back after the Easter holiday weekend on Tuesday 7th April.

Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN)  – C$13.5m investment in a Brazilian copper/gold project

Celsius Resources (CLA LN)  – Appointment of Managing Director

Cornish Metals* (TIN LN)  – 2025 progress on resumption of tin production at South Crofty

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) – Shares slide as Kamoa update disappoints

Many Peaks (MPK AU) – MRE on track for 2Q26, PFS due 4Q26 at Ferke

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN)  – Success in community partnership and rehab trials at Kasiya in Malawi

Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM LN)  – Acquisition of gold and silver stream over Jervois Project with KGL Resources

Gold ($4,627/oz) pares gains as risk-off sentiment returns on Trump’s renewed threats of escalation

• Gold prices retreated overnight, down 2.8% after Trump called for increased military pressure in Iran.
• The metal touched $4,800/oz, before retreating as equity markets sold off, oil rallied and US Treasuries weakened.
• The US 10 Year yield climbed to 4.38%, as traders sold off Treasuries over renewed inflation concerns.
• Gold seems to have found a strong floor at $4,100/oz, which should bode well for mining equities going forward.
• Continued erosion of the US’ allies’ trust in the current Administration should encourage further foreign reserve diversification in favour of gold.
• Gold has performed relatively well given the dollar is holding above 100 on the index.
• We would expect another leg higher in the dollar to apply further pressure to gold, however continue to believe current geopolitical and monetary policy trends can push the metal back over $5,000/oz in due course.

Equity futures fall with oil prices and VIX rising following hawkish remarks from President Trump.

• In his address, Trump threatened an escalation in the war with Iran over the next weeks.
• “We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks” and bring Iran “back to the stone ages”.
• A sell off follows a relief rally as markets welcomed the news that the US will be looking to end the operation soon.
• Military personnel have been rising over the last week with the third USS group is reported to be en route into the region.
• Arrival of more US troops and special equipment raised chances of a potential ground operation.
• S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 1.0% and 1.2.% this morning.
• VIX over 26 with Brent above $108 recovering after briefly sliding sub $100 mark.
• 2y and 10y yields trading higher at 3.85% and 4.37%.

Rare Earths - REalloys (ALOY US, Mkt Cap $550m) signed a nonbinding MOU with US Critical Materials for a 10% offtake from the Sheep Creek Project.

• Under the MOU, the parties will advance met testwork, optimist HREE processing flowsheets and negotiate a definitive long term offtake agreement.
• Sheep Creek is an early stage exploration project located in Rovali County, southwest Montana, with previous work having identified high grade REE bearing carbonatite veins.
• Historical exploration work included geophysics, mapping and sampling of surface outcrops as well as historical underground workings.

REEcycle and Hall Chadwick Acquisition Corp, a Nasdaq listed SPAC, signed a non binding LOI for a proposed merger.

• The agreement values REEcycle at ~$600m with the transaction including a minimum of $50m PIPE financing.
• Th LOI includes a 60-day exclusivity period for further due diligence.
• Mick McMullen led REEcycle is advancing hydrometallurgical recycling proprietary technology to recover REEs from NdFeB magnets containing scrap.
• The process uses proprietary solvent the dissolvers and crystallizes REEs at low pressures and relatively low temperatures (<100C).

Murata Manufacturing Y3,478, Mkt cap Y6.8tn – Murata to separate rare-earth supply chain from rest of business (FT)

• Murata Manufacturing which supplies around 40% of the world’s MLCCs ‘multilayer ceramic capacitors’
• MLCCs regulate the flow of electricity used in smart phones, electronics and data centres.
• Murata buys rare earths from China which has banned exports of “dual-use” goods including critical minerals and rare earths, for military purposes.
• China has placed restrictions on exports to some critical Japanese companies in accordance with this policy.
• Murata claims it is still “currently meeting demand through supply from our existing procurement routes and certain level of inventory”.
• “We will continue to make every effort to ensure a stable supply going forward,”
• Murata also makes sensors and batteries for data centres and for Nvidia.
• Murata’s president reckons the company has a 10-year technical advantage over their Chinese rivals and will try to keep at least three or four years’ advance.

Chinese firms adopted as preferred partners in Africa for critical mineral extraction

• The west appears to be loosing the race for production and offtake from African mining projects.
• A number of recent decisions have led to Chinese companies being awarded concessions over western miners.
• In the DRC, the cancellation of permits held by AVZ Minerals for non-payment of surface rights fees and follows the revoking of the Manono concession by the government in 2023.
• The DRC President awarded the southern half of Manono to KoBold Metals which delayed development pending resolution of the AVZ dispute
• Last week the DRC Minister of Mines signed an MoU with China’s Minister of Natural Resources for cooperation in the fields of geology and mineral resources.
• Chinese companies, already control >70% of the DRC’s cobalt, lithium, copper, cobalt (coltan) reserves according to some estimates.

How the Iran conflict is reshaping global commodity markets - IG TV: https://youtu.be/oE6-k3hQDsM?si=sXBMY_UOZpvMP8EA

Oil, LNG and helium - what the Middle East conflict means for energy markets - IG TV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlMVGvbgE9o



Currencies

US$1.1529/eur vs 1.1588/eur previous. Yen 159.62/$ vs 158.33/$. SAr 16.956/$ vs 16.825/$. $1.321/gbp vs $1.328/gbp. 0.688/aud vs 0.694/aud

CNY 6.893/$ vs 6.873/$. Dollar Index 100.15 vs 99.58 previous

Economics

March NFPs are out tomorrow with expectations for a modest 65k reading (Feb: -92k).

• Jobless rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%.
• Wages growth rate to pull back marginally to 0.3%mom/3.7%yoy (Feb: 0.4%/3.8%)

China – Private sector manufacturing PMI slowed in March more than expected.

• The report highlighted a jump in inflationary pressures to the highest since March 2022.
• Higher cost inflation raised final goods prices that climbed at the strongest pace in four years.
• RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Mar / Feb / Est): 50.8 / 52.1 / 51.5

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,551/oz vs US$4,719/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 97.9moz vs 98.0moz previous

Platinum US$1,919/oz vs US$1,975/oz previous

Palladium US$1,436/oz vs US$1,488/oz previous

Silver US$71.9/oz vs US$74.9/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 798.8moz vs 802.8moz previous

Rhodium US$10,100/oz vs US$10,100/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$12,335/t vs US$12,469/t previous

Aluminium US$3,508/t vs US$3,441/t previous

Nickel US$17,008/t vs US$17,200/t previous

Zinc US$3,269/t vs US$3,213/t previous

Lead US$1,929/t vs US$1,917/t previous

Tin US$46,677/t vs US$47,330/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$107.5/bbl vs US$99.0/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices rose ahead of the Easter weekend after US President Trump’s nationwide address depressed hopes for a speedy resolution to the Iran conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• The EIA’s weekly petroleum report estimated a w/w US inventory build of 5.5mb to crude, offset by draws of 0.6mb to gasoline and 2.1mb to distillate stocks, with refinery utilisation falling 0.7% to 92.2% on 13.7mb/d of domestic output.
• European energy prices were stable as EU natural gas storage levels fell 0.8% w/w to 27.7% full (vs 40.9% 5-Yr average), with aggregate inventory at 314TWh and German storage levels just over 20% full.

Natural Gas €49.4/MWh vs €48.6/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $84.0/lb vs $84.0/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$106.3/t vs US$105.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$468.1/t vs US$465.6/t

HCC FOB Australia US$235.0/t vs US$224.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$145.3/t vs US$150.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$104,979/t vs US$103,140/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$22,407/t vs US$22,293/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,100/t vs US$2,100/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$2,443/mtu vs US$2,443/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$253/lb vs US$253/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.8/lb vs US$5.8/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.8/kg vs US$28.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$258/t vs US$257/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,759/t vs US$2,759/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,142/t vs US$1,136/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$387.5/t vs US$387.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

Company News:

Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) 718p, Mkt Cap £1,150m – C$13.5m investment in a Brazilian copper/gold project

• Atalaya Mining reports the acquisition of 4.5m shares in the TSX listed Lara Exploration for C$13.5m.
• Lara Exploration owns the Planalto copper/gold project in the Carajás region of Brazil where an October 2025 Preliminary Economic Assessment described “a conventional open pit mine, flotation processing plant with capacity of 8 Mtpa and estimated production of 560 kt copper and 111 koz gold over a life of mine of 18 years”.
• Atalaya’s invested via a “private placement at a price of C$3.00 per share and represent approximately 7.3% of Lara's issued and outstanding shares … [with the] … proceeds … [to be used] … to advance Planalto”.

Celsius Resources (CLA LN) 0.68p, Mkt Cap £25m – Appointment of Managing Director

• Celsius Resources reports the appointment of an investment banker, Bardin Davis, as its Managing Director.
• “Mr Davis' immediate focus will be on finalising financing for the Maalinao-Caigutan-Biyog Copper-Gold Project ("MCB Project") to support a Final Investment Decision”.
• Mr. Davis is described as having “~30 years of investment banking and corporate experience within the mining and energy sectors… [Chairman, Peter Hume, said that Mr. Davis] … has already been closely involved in advancing the financing strategy for the MCB Project, and his appointment reflects the Board's confidence in his ability to lead the Company through the next phase of securing funding and progressing towards development”.
• Today’s announcement also confirms the appointment of “an executive search firm to advise on the appointment of a Non-Executive Chair”.

Cornish Metals* (TIN LN) 119.5p, Mkt cap £147m – 2025 progress on resumption of tin production at South Crofty

• Cornish Metals reports a loss of £7.9m for 2025 (2024 – £0.7m loss) and a closing cash balance of ~£22.7m following the £57.4m funding, supported by both the major shareholder – Vision Blue and the UK’s National Wealth Fund, in January 2025.
• Bolstered by the additional financial resources, in what CEO, Don Turvey, described as a “year of strong progress for Cornish Metals as we advance South Crofty towards production”, the announcement highlights:
  • Dewatering the New Cook’s Kitchen Shaft to the 370m level and “shaft refurbishment advancing to the mid-level pump station”; and
  • Progress with surface infrastructure “including process plant excavation, Roskear shaft groundworks, Mine Dry refurbishment and Bartles Foundry development”; and
  • The securing of “long-lead items …  including production and service winders”.
• The company also spotlights the publication of the updated Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) in September which showed that the initial 14 years of operations of a rejuvenated South Crofty mine was expected to produce ~49kt of tin from the mining of 500ktpa of ore, which after an ore pre-concentration stage provides feed of 250ktpa of ore at a grade of 1.89% tin to the processing plant.
• Based on a tin price estimate of US$33,900/t (currently ~US$47,000/t) the PEA estimated an after-tax NPV6% of £180m, an IRR of 20% and payback within 3.3 years.
• The company also acknowledges its’ redomicile to AIM which it said reflects “our conviction that a UK corporate, regulatory and governance framework best aligns with the Company's operational focus, stakeholder base and long-term strategic objectives … [as it establishes itself as] … a UK-focused developer of a nationally significant critical minerals asset”.
• Non-Executive Chairman, Patrick Anderson, confirmed that progress “is well underway … [to secure a] … debt and equity financing package … [which] … will be required to support ongoing development and enable a final investment decision to be taken”.
• CEO, Don Turvey, explained that 2025 “centred on reducing technical and execution risk by advancing development both on surface and underground, conducting engineering work to support the progress of the project plan and schedule, and confirming attractive project economics”.
• Acknowledging that during 2025, “we experienced some challenges which caused a delay in dewatering” Mr. Turvey explained that “Underground activities at the New Cook's Kitchen shaft remained central to our delivery plan … [and] … we are now not only focused on refurbishment and dewatering further, but working concurrently on a number of different activities, all of which are progressing the development of the Project”.
• These include:
  • “shallow-level lateral development … from the existing Tuckingmill decline on the 25-level (approximately 45 metres below surface), supporting future skip discharge and materials handling arrangements”; and
  • “surface works commenced … [at] … the Roskear shaft … located approximately 850 metres west of the primary New Cook's Kitchen shaft, which will be used for ventilation and as a secondary means of egress for the mine”; and
  • “Building a skilled and experienced workforce alongside physical infrastructure … to ensure when we reach production our team are fully equipped with the necessary knowledge and skills required for operating a producing mine”.
• Mr. Turvey emphasised future priorities which are “centred on maintaining delivery momentum and continuing to de-risk the Project … [and confirmed that in the long term] … our ambitions begin with bringing South Crofty into production … and then reviewing options for future growth”.

Conclusion: Cornish Metals is progressing the operational work for a resumption of tin production at South Crofty and advancing plans for debt and equity finance clearing the way for a “final investment decision to be taken”.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker. An SP Angel analyst formerly worked in the South Crofty tin mine in the 1980s and holds shares in Cornish Metals

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) – C$10.5, Mkt cap C$15bn – Shares slide as Kamoa update disappoints

• Ivanhoe provided an update this week following an independent study for the Kamoa-Kakula Complex.
• The study sees a ramp up to 500ktpa Cu production from 2028.
• Ivanhoe revises previous production guidance for 2026 and 2027 to:
  • 2026: 290-330kt at C1 costs of $2.6-3/lb (from 380-420kt at $2.2-2.5/lb)
  • 2027: 380-420kt at C1 costs of $2.1-2.5/lb (from 500-540kt at $1.9-2.3/lb)
• CAPEX guidance of $1.-1.4bn in 2026 and $750-950m in 2027 remains unchanged.
• The guidance cut reflects a longer required period of up-front development and reduced scoping and development.
• Company notes the rate of heading development has been ‘lower than expected, due to adverse geotechnical and hydrological conditions.’
• Kamoa-Kakula reserves have been reduced from 17.4mt at 3.92% Cu to 13.1mt at 2.82% Cu.
• MRE reported at 34mt contained copper at 2.65% indicated and 6.1mt contained copper at 1.8% Cu.
• Ivanhoe will complete an optimised Feasibility Study as dewatering completes.

Many Peaks (MPK AU) – A$0.84, Mkt cap A$112m – MRE on track for 2Q26, PFS due 4Q26 at Ferke

• Many Peaks, who are advancing the Ferke Gold Project in Cote d’Ivoire to MRE due early 2Q26, report assay results.
• The Company reports highlights from eight holes at the project, including:
  • FNDM013: 105m at 2.28g/t Au from 28m
  • FNDM012: 39m at 2.38g/t Au from surface
  • FNDM008: 15.6m at 2.9g/t Au from 21m and 8m at 2.5g/t Au from 65m
  • FNDC098: 11.5m at 1.4g/t Au from 318m, 3.9m at 2.4g/t Au from 337m, 18m at 1.94g/t Au from 348m
• Assays reported today form part of a metallurgical and infill drilling programme at the Ouarigue prospect.
• The Company notes these results will be included in the upcoming maiden MRE.
• Core has been sent for testing as part of the metallurgical programme.
• Preliminary tests have returned 94% gold recoveries from sulphide mineralisation.
• Two rigs are currently drilling at Ferke, with an updated MRE to accompany a PFS in 4Q26.

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) 35.5p, Mkt Cap £246m – Success in community partnership and rehab trials at Kasiya in Malawi

(Sovereign currently holds 100% of the Kasiya project. Malawi has 10% free carry right. Rio Tinto holds 18.5% of Sovereign Metals)

• Sovereign Metals report success in their rehabilitation trials and community partnerships around the Kasiya mine site in Malawi
• The positive results will feed directly into the DFS and ESIA.
• Mine closure and field rehabilitation plan has been well proven and now forms an important part of the DFS report.
• Pilot mining and subsequent rehabilitation has worked particularly with significant soil improvement through soil conditioning and re-composition though some clay removal.
• Crop yields improved by 520% over two years demonstrating significant benefit.
• Participating farmers to establish a farming co-operative to ensure sustainable results beyond the completion of the trial.
• The 28 local farmers involved in the trials are reported to have formally requested Sovereign should remains at the trial site for support.
• The second year trials have built on a good first year which delivered maize yields of 5.2t/ha vs 1t/ha previously with losses of 3-4% of crop bearing capacity each year.
• No heavy machinery is permitted on rehabilitated soils with all farming by hand to help preserve soil structure.
• Intercropping of maize with Giant Bamboo, winter beans, grass fodder and groundnuts with the bamboo and maize co-existing with minimal competition in a symbiotic manner supporting long-term land productivity.
• IFC: the outcome of these trials supports IFC performance standards.

Conclusion:  These are good results for Sovereign and are great results for Malawi. Malawi is faced with growing domestic food shortages from worsening crop yields. The agronomists working for Sovereign are showing how Malawian soils can be reconditioned and how intercropping can substantially improve yields. This is not just important for Sovereign but it could provide a template for other farming cooperatives in the region.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Sovereign Metals. The analyst has visited the Kasiya mine site and highly recommends the Malawi coffee

Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM LN) – 9,962p, Mkt cap $62bn – Acquisition of gold and silver stream over Jervois Project with KGL Resources

• Wheaton has acquired a gold and silver stream over the Jervois Project in Australia currently under development by KGL.
• Wheaton will pay a cash consideration of $275m and a $25m contingent cost overrun facility.
• Wheaton has also committed to participate in future equity raise for the lessor of A$35m or 20% of the shares offered.
• Gold Stream:
  • 75% of payable gold to 45koz
  • 37.5% of payable gold to additional 15koz
  • 25% of payable gold over remaining LOM
  • Payable gold uses a fixed 90% payability factor.
• Silver Stream:
  • 75% of payable silver to 4.3moz
  • 37.5% to additional 1.7moz
  • 25% of remaining LOM
• Attributable gold and silver stream production forecast at 5.8koz Au and 770koz Ag per annum first five years.
• Wheaton will pay for gold and silver ounces at 20% of spot price.
• Jervois Project:
  • 10 year LOM producing 30ktpa Cu at C1 costs of $1.95/lb (post-by-product)
  • Construction CAPEX of A$362m
  • Post-tax NPV8 of $405m and IRR of 24.3% at $4.58/lb
• Going forward, KGL will provide an update by May 2026 regarding updated capital costs and revenue forecasts.
• KGL is also in active discussions with traders and off-takers to finalise funding.

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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