SP Angel . Morning View . Tuesday 12.05.26

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Elevra Lithium (ELV AU) SUSPENDED – An up to ~A$440m funding package for NAL Brownfield Expansion and Moblan studies

Griffin Mining (GFM LN)  – Caijiaying licence extension as drilling investigates gold extensions at depth and towards the south

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN)  – Expansion of the Redmoor drilling programme

Silver – prices jump on expected rise in deficit as demand for physical silver grows

• Silver prices jumped $6/oz yesterday peaking at $87/oz at 1:00am BST as traders reversed expectations for more of a correction.
• Prices have since pulled back to $84.3/oz.
• Raised oil prices are leading to higher EV sales and likely increased demand for silver in solar and other renewable energy technologies
• The Silver Institute estimates a deficit of 187moz last year despite the assumption of flat demand for photovoltaics due to thrifting.

IG TV Gold report: https://youtu.be/PliTL-z0n54?si=HvvFdldYY7oHK7s7

Delta Gold Technologies - The Quantum Revolution: Why it Matters?

Quantum computing is emerging as a strategically important technology—one that could redefine competitive advantage across industries.

• See film for further details: https://invest.investorshub.com/innovationreport/#lp-pom-video-1270

Currencies

US$1.1753/eur vs 1.1769/eur previous. Yen 157.46/$ vs 157.07/$. SAr 16.552/$ vs 16.432/$. $1.354/gbp vs $1.360/gbp. 0.722/aud vs 0.724/aud. CNY 6.796/$ vs 6.796/$.

Dollar Index 98.23 vs 98.02 previous.

Economics

Trump is set to meet with Xi this Thursday with US President set to land in China tomorrow evening.

• Discussions are expected to include Iran/China trade relations (oil imports and arms exports) as well as US weapons sales to Taiwan.

US inflation numbers (April) are out later today to show the extent local consumer price growth affected by higher energy prices worldwide.

• CPI forecast to hit 3.7%, up from 3.3% in March and 2.4% at the beginning of the year.
• Core CPI expected at 2.7%, up from 2.6% (March) and 2.5% (January).

Wall Steet - Goldman Sachs advises senior staff to relocate out of NY

• GS is reported to be forcing hundreds of managers and employees to relocate to Dallas, Texas, Salt Lake City, or leave.
• The firm sees NY tax rises as unsustainable
• The move follows other banks and organisations in allowing staff to relocate to more tax friendly cities

Japan – BoJ hinted at a possibility of a rate hike at the next meeting (16 June) on higher inflation outlook due to a war in the Middle East.

• “It is quite possible that the bank will raise the policy interest rate from the next monetary policy meeting onward, even if the future course of the situation in the Middle East remains unclear,” notes from one of members from the April meeting.
• Markets are pricing in a 77% chance of a hike with the board voting 6-3 to keep rates level at the last meeting (April 28).
• So far the BoJ is holding its short-term policy rate at 0.75% but any raise to Japanese rates will impact the extensive carry trade impacting equity markets around the world.
• The 10-year Japan bond yield rose to a new 29-year high.

Iran – Trump says Iran ceasefire is on life support = we are planning to bomb the bits we missed the last time

• Iran has rejected US demands to halt uranium enrichment for 20 years.
• The US has refused to transfer Iran's highly enriched uranium to Russia but has proposed a third country for the transfer.
• Iran has refused to transfer uranium outside its territory and is ready to enrich it under the supervision of the IAEA”.
• We are aware of the movement of munitions in preparation for a potential strike on Iran.
• Reports indicate USAF refueling aircraft activity in Israel.
• One word from Trump and the American war machine will swing into kinetic action yet again.
• Iran has rejected key American demands
• Trump says he is still aiming for “complete victory” in the war despite pressure for a negotiated settlement. Trump says the US has a complete victory from a military standpoint.
• Trump says he plans to raise the issue later this week in Beijing during talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, as part of an effort to pressure China to help secure a more favourable agreement.
• Israel is pushing for a special forces mission to secure Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, though Trump sees the mission as risky.
• US officials see Trump is leaning toward additional pressure measures against Tehran (Axios).
• Trump criticized Kurdish groups where weapons for delivery into Iran kept by Kurdish groups.
• Another US submarine has entered the Mediterranean with cruise missile and special operations forces support.

UK – Pressure on PM Starmer to resign is building up ahead of cabinet meeting later today.

• More than 70 Labour MPs are calling on Starmer to stand down with senior ministers seen joining the revolt.
• Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper urged PM to set a date for his departure, FT reports.
• The pound is off this morning with 30y bond yields hitting the highest since 1198 (5.80%, +12bp).
• Concerns are a Starmer replacement will be more left-leaning and potentially ease the fiscal rules in favour of more pro deficit policies.

Spain – Scandal over €10bn of missing EU Covid funds – with Brussels silent on the missing money

• Spain’s Tribunal de Cuentas, the country’s top fiscal watchdog and several senior auditors have tried to block the routine approval of the 2024 General State Accounts.
• The revelation of the diversions of Next Generation EU funds into ordinary spending, including direct top-ups for pension payments appears contrary to the intended use of the EU Covid funding.
• Unallocated Recovery and Resilience Facility money that arrived from Brussels was redirected through the Treasury’s single account to plug gaps in current expenditure, according to El Mundo.
• The funds were diverted at a time when Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s government was operating under a budget extension with no new annual accounts passed.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,699/oz vs US$4,674/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 98.7moz vs 98.6moz previous

Platinum US$2,069/oz vs US$2,030/oz previous

Palladium US$1,485/oz vs US$1,474/oz previous

Silver US$84.2/oz vs US$80.5/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 791.6moz vs 792.5moz previous

Rhodium US$9,975/oz vs US$9,975/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$13,894/t vs US$13,605/t previous

Aluminium US$3,548/t vs US$3,528/t previous

Nickel US$18,955/t vs US$19,035/t previous

Zinc US$3,475/t vs US$3,413/t previous

Lead US$1,981/t vs US$1,975/t previous

Tin US$54,970/t vs US$54,400/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$106.3/bbl vs US$104.8/bbl previous

• WTI crude oil prices climbed above $100/bbl on supply concerns after Saudi Aramco’s CEO warned that the ongoing disruption to energy flows from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would push oil market stabilisation and rebalancing into 2027, with the market currently losing around 100 million barrels of oil a week.

Natural Gas €47.3/MWh vs €44.7/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $86.2/lb vs $86.0/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$110.0/t vs US$111.5/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$484.0/t vs US$483.2/t

HCC FOB Australia US$238.5/t vs US$238.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$137.0/t vs US$133.0/t

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$111,466/t vs US$111,464/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$28,768/t vs US$28,179/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,890/t vs US$2,810/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$2,083/mtu vs US$2,143/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$195/lb vs US$195/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.9/lb vs US$5.9/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.4/kg vs US$28.4/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$251/t vs US$251/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,799/t vs US$2,799/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,155/t vs US$1,155/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$405.0/t vs US$405.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,475.0/kg vs US$3,375.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$29.5/lb vs US$29.0/lb

EV & Battery new:

Ford launches Ford Energy subsidiary for US-made BESS

• Ford has officially unveiled Ford Energy, a wholly owned subsidiary that will manufacture and sell battery energy storage systems (BESS) for utilities, data centers, and large industrial customers.
• The new unit will target 20GWh of energy storage production annually from its plant in Kentucky.
• Ford Energy will focus on a standardised 20ft containerised system using LFP prismatic cells. 



Company new:

Elevra Lithium (ELV AU) SUSPENDED – An up to ~A$440m funding package for NAL Brownfield Expansion and Moblan studies

• The Company released an updated Scoping Study for staged expansion at its North American Lithium operations (Quebec, Canada) and an up to A$441m project funding programme.
• An up to A$441m funding package comprises:
  • A$275m fully underwritten institutional placing (A$12.20/share, ~11% discount to the last close)
  • A$146m convertible notes from Canada Growth Fund (unsecured, unsubordinated, 5y, CORRA+2.25%, A$17.2 conversion price for A$65m Tranche, TBD for the second A$80m Tranche)
  • Up to A$20n non underwritten raise with existing shareholders
• Proceeds to be used for Stages 1-3 of the NAL Brownfield Expansion and funding Moblan technical studies through to FID.
• A$20m budgeted for Moblan studies.
• The Updated Scoping Study focuses on accelerated expansion of production (two years ahead of original plans from the Sep25 Study) and unchanged US$270m development capex.
• Expansion involves three stages:
  • Stage 1 (C$96) – incremental ~34ktpa SC (+15-20%) using available 4,500tpd milling capacity from mid-CY27
  • Stage 2 (C$81M) – incremental ~110ktpa SC, expansion of milling/flotation/filtration capacity to 6,500tpd, SC production up to 338ktpa, plan to use temporary mobile crushing unit circuit, start early CY28
  • Stage 3 (C$188M) – replacing the temporary and existing crushing units with a new one matching expanded downstream milling capacities, crushing and re sorting cost efficiencies, completion mid CY29
• Updated study delivers an increase in incremental Post Tax NPV8 of the expansion to C$969m, +102% on previous study.
• The increase is almost evenly split between benefits of bringing additional production forward and higher prices.
• Post production expansion to 338ktpa (SC5.4), up from current ~194ktpa.
• C1 Cash Costs C$868/t, down from C$1,076/t.
• AISC C$946/t, from C$1,152/t.
• Post Tax NPV8 and IRR C$3,112m and 42%, from C$2,143m.
• US$2,154/SC6 price assumption.

Griffin Mining (GFM LN) 317p, Mkt Cap £553m – Caijiaying licence extension as drilling investigates gold extensions at depth and towards the south

• Griffin Mining reports the renewal of its Mining Licence for the Caijiaying Mine in China until 2054.
• Renewal of the licence is included in the announcement of results for the year to 31st December 2025 which show a doubling of after-tax profit to US$22.1m (2024- US$11.4m) and a closing cash balance of US$47.5m.
• Annual revenues of US$137.5m were broadly comparable with the US$135.1m delivered in 2024, however revenues from zinc in concentrate declined by 17.1% to US$16.4m while “Lead and precious metal in concentrate sales were up $18,141,000 (39.0%) on that in 2024 reflecting higher Gold, Silver and Lead metal in concentrate prices received and increased silver produced and sold”.
• Mine production declined by 2.9% compared to 2024 to ~1.12mt “reflecting delays to the restart of production following the 2024 contractor fatality and restricted explosives supplies for stoping in the fourth quarter of 2025”.
• As a result of reduced production mining costs rose “by 15.0% from $25,993,000 to $29,886,000 in 2025 reflecting the element of fixed mine service costs and additional drilling and other geological costs ahead of mining”.
• Volumes of ore processed declined by almost 5% to 1.1mt “in line with ore mined and hauled”.
• Chairman, Mladen Ninkov, welcomed the start of production at ‘Zone II’ of the mine which, he said is “expected to be mined … for the duration of the current mining licence to 2054”.
• He also confirmed that drilling beneath the mine during 2025 intersected “high-grade gold below the existing development … [with confirmation of the down-plunge continuity of the] … Yuan Long orebody … open to the south and at depth”.
• Mr. Ninkov confirmed that “drilling continues to materially expand the contained gold of the Yuan Long system whilst also defining a new, high‑grade, Fu Long feeder system, which the Company believes could potentially provide multiple avenues for near-term growth and longer-term resource expansion”.

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 5.8p, Mkt Cap £163m – Expansion of the Redmoor drilling programme

• Strategic Minerals reports that, following the £4.7m injection of funds “led by a prominent international investor” in March it is expanding its originally planned 16,000m pre-feasibility 2026 drilling programme to 22,500m in “at least 44 drillholes”.
• The relevant planning applications, including “the ability to mobilise an additional two drill rigs” have been submitted to the Minerals Planning Authority.
• Deployment of three drilling rigs at Redmoor for the first time will be supported by an expansion of the exploration team “with new geologists and supporting team members joining the programme to ensure high quality delivery at pace”.
• The expanded programme includes “infill drilling of the entire resource, and … more recently planned upgrade drilling of the Redmoor (JORC) Exploration Target … designed to add additional resources”.
• The ‘Exploration Target’ is an additional 1.8-3.4mt at grades between 0.4-0.6% tungsten trioxide, 0.08-0.12% tin, 0.2-0.3% copper and 2.6-4.0g/t silver in addition to the March 2026 ‘Inferred’ resource of 17.4mt at an average grade of 0.49% tungsten trioxide, 0.17% tin, 0.44% copper and 5.8g/t silver.
• In addition, the programme will generate “geotechnical, metallurgical and hydrogeological” data for the forthcoming feasibility work.
• The company also confirms the completion of hole CRD-042 “having intersected the full thickness of the Redmoor Sheeted Vein System …[and]… mineralisation north of the SVS”.
• It is encouraging to hear that CRD-042 “was extended beyond its original planned depth, to the south of the SVS, due to the presence and continuation of mineralised structures”.
• Logging and sampling of the hole has been completed with the samples to be shipped for analysis “imminently, joining batches of samples under analysis from the ongoing relogging and sampling programme”..
• Photographs of the drill core from CRD-042 included in today’s announcmen5t show coarse grained tungsten mineralisation in the form of the mineral wolframite as well as copper mineralisation “massive chalcopyrite” and tin mineralisation in the form of both coarse and fine grained cassiterite.
• Drilling is continuing from the same site with CRD-043 underway “the second of seven planned holes from this pad”.
• Commenting on the results from CRD-042 Dennis Rowland, Managing Director of the operating company, Cornwall Resources, confirmed that it “intersected the entire thickness of the Redmoor SVS, with mineralisation visually consistent with the deposit recorded by CRL's geologists. The drillhole also intersected mineralisation both above and below the SVS intersection, with the hole extended due to the continued presence of mineralisation in multiple vein structures”.
• Strategic Minerals’ Executive Director, Mark Burnett, described the “successful intersection of a long section of visually logged abundant mineralisation within the SVS… [as] … positive”.
• Mr. Burnett said that the “newly expanded infill and expansion drilling programme, alongside data and sample collection for feasibility study components, is well underway and expected to shift into a new gear upon successful completion of the permitting process”.

Conclusion: Additional funds raised in March are supporting the expansion of the planned 2026 drilling programme at Redmoor. The latest hole completed “intersected the full thickness of the Redmoor Sheeted Vein System” which hosts the bulk of the recently expanded MRE as well as mineralisation both above and below it. Samples are awaiting imminent shipment for assay.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Strategic Minerals

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