SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 08.04.26

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Aris Mining (ARIS CN) – Gold production ramp up continues at Segovia, Marmato CIP plant due 4Q26

Bezant Resources (BZT LN)  – Increased MRE at the Hope & Gorob project, Namibia

Eramet (ERA LN) - Duval family appoints Lazard to explore options for its 37% interest in Eramet

Firefly Metals (FFM AU) – Core Zone infill drilling supports PEA due mid-2026

Greatland Resources (GGP LN)  – Strong cash generation from Telfer

GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc (GROC LN)  – Drill contract, geotechnical and hydrological surveys

Rock Tech Lithium (RCK CN) – A C$200m strategic partnership with BMI Group

Tungsten West (TUN LN)  – Initial tungsten production from Hemerdon expected during Q3

Metals recover on improved market sentiment following Iran ceasefire

• Gold prices jumped 2.5% overnight to $4,856/oz before paring gains slightly, settling c. $4,800/oz.
• Silver is up 7% this morning, with platinum and palladium both rallying >5%.
• The precious metals complex has been supported by weaker dollar, with the index sliding 1% to 98.9, having held above 100 through much of last week.
• Precious metals have begun trading in increasing lockstep with ‘risk-on’ assets, with the Nasdaq 3.5% in early trading and bitcoin also rising 4%.
• Copper has posted strong gains this morning, up 3.7% to $12,750/t on the LME amid cooling concerns over global growth impacts from the conflict in Iran.
• Both precious metals and base metal miners are catching a bid this morning, with the GDX up 6.5% this morning and the COPX copper index up nearly 8%.
• Miners had been sold off hard over a combined impact of higher diesel prices impacting margins and lower metals prices as traders sold down positions to boost liquidity.

Copper

• Copper is benefiting from longer-term trends in supply constraints, impacted by grade decline and major supply disruptions last year.
• Ivanhoe disappointed with guidance last month from Kamoa-Kakula, shaving 90kt from 2026 guidance and 120kt from 2027 guidance.
• We are watching Freeport’s updates from Grasberg closely following the mud rush event in 2025, with the market currently expecting minimal output disruption going forward.
• Any signs of more protracted supply issues from Grasberg, with an update due April, may push copper prices higher.

Gold

• We see this year’s conflict in the Middle East as supportive of gold over the longer-term, predominantly through its impact on the ‘Petrodollar’ status quo.
• The US has long provided security guarantees in the Middle East, with Gulf countries denominating oil sales in dollars and buying treasuries in return.
• If Iran secures increased influence over the Straits of Hormuz, Gulf countries may increase ties with China and India, major importers of hydrocarbons from the region.
• We consider sustained tensions between the US and China as a major driver behind gold’s longer-term momentum, alongside de-dollarisation from BRIC and developing countries.
• Speculative positioning in gold futures and ETFs has eased following the conflict, providing a new price floor over $4,000/oz and establishing a base from which to test new highs.

Copper - Iranian copper smelters close

• Satellite data shows the Sar Chesmeh and Khatoon Abad smelters are closed
• The smelters have 250,000tpa and 120,000tpa capacity respectively

How the Iran conflict is reshaping global commodity markets - IG TV: https://youtu.be/oE6-k3hQDsM?si=sXBMY_UOZpvMP8EA

Oil, LNG and helium - what the Middle East conflict means for energy markets - IG TV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlMVGvbgE9o

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Currencies

US$1.1690/eur vs 1.1543/eur previous. Yen 158.25/$ vs 159.83/$. SAr 16.407/$ vs 16.928/$. $1.342/gbp vs $1.324/gbp. 0.706/aud vs 0.692/aud.

CNY 6.826/$ vs 6.873/$. Dollar Index 98.87 vs 100.04 previous. - dollar index fell ~1% overnight

Economics

Ceasefire – Iran hopes China can ensure security for Iran in the Middle East

• The US received a 10-point plan from Iran that the administration thought was a “workable basis” for negotiations.
• Tehran agreed to allows a “safe passage” through the strait while discussions continue on a permanent deal kick off.
• The Iran and Oman will be able to charge a fee of up to $2m per vessel transiting through the strait with funds used for Iran reconstruction.
• 10-point list of conditions

1. Acceptance of uranium enrichment
2. The war against "all components" of Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance to end
3. The establishment of a "secure transit protocol" in the Strait of Hormuz
4. The full payment of compensation to Iran
5. Continued Iranian control over the strait of Hormuz
6. The war against "all components" of Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance to end
7. An end to attacks on Iran and its allies.
8. The release of all frozen Iranian assets and properties abroad
9. A UN security council resolution making any deal binding
10. The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, as well as the resolutions of the International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors and the Security Council

• Toll charges: Tehran would reference the fees for other water passages in the world but had not decided on a detailed plan yet.
• The status of the point relating to maintaining uranium enrichment capacities is unclear.
• The point is reported to have been taken out of the English version shared with journalists but was initially part of the Farsi plan.
• Discussions to continue between US and Iranian representatives in Islamabad on Friday.
• Iran is looking to China to guarantee peace in the region according to Iranian ambassador Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli in Beijing (SCMP).
• Iran is also looking to the UN Security Council and Russia, as well as mediating countries Pakistan and Turkey to work together to guarantee peace in the region.
• There are 800-1,000 vessels reported to be waiting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz with around 190 laden tankers and >170mbbls of crude and refined products waiting to leave the Gulf.
• Around 100 vessels normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz a day.

China - Substantial price increases seen in China in some key input materials over two weeks to end-March:

• Sulfuric Acid (98%) – 17.2%
• Methyl Alcohol (Superior Quality) – 14.8%
• Glacial Acetic Acid (99.5% and above) – 19.1%
• Butadiene Rubber (BR9000) - - 16.9%
• Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) – 12.9%
• Gasoline (95#, National VI Emission Standard) – 10.2%
• Diesel Oil (0#, National VI Emission Standard) – 11%
• Coking Coal (Main Coking Coal) – 5.3%.

Brazil blacklists BYD over slave labour conditions

• Brazil’s labour ministry has added Chinese EV giant BYD to a registry of 169 employers found to have subjected workers to conditions analogous to slavery.
• Brazilian workers told auditors that heir Chinese counterparts normally worked seven days a week, including public holidays, and that supervisors had given them the days off only because the inspection team was coming.
• Inspectors found that employees passports were held in a locked administrative cabinet, leaving workers without access to travel documents.
• Workers were found to receive only a nominal living allowance in Brazil, in some cases less than US$200 a month, disbursed only with supervisor approval, and investigators found that around 60% of their wages were withheld and remitted directly to accounts in China.
• The federal labour prosecutor’s office said there were also indications of fraud in the immigration documents presented by the carmaker’s contractors, as the Chinese workers had been brought to Brazil on visas issued for specialised technical services when the men were in fact construction labourers.
• Being listed does not shut down BYD’s Camacari plant, but it restricts access to financing from state banks and from private institutions that are signatories to Brazil’s national pact to eradicate forced labour.

Zimbabwe – Concerns rise over ruling party proposals changing the constitution extending terms to seven years from five and allowing parliament to appoint president

• Among changes proposed by the ruling Zanu-PF are:
  • Presidential elections scrapped;
  • Parliamentary and presidential terms being extended to seven years from five;
  • Parliamentary elections postponed to 2030 from 2028;
  • The new parliament electing the next president.
• Parliament is expected pass the bill in the coming weeks.
• Emmerson Mnangagwa (83) is set to remain in the office until 2030 when his second term ends if the bill passes.
• Under the current constitution from 2013, the president is restricted to a maximum of two terms while changes including extensions to terms would require a referendum.
• The sitting president is also not allowed to benefit from any extensions unless voters give their approval in a second referendum.

Indonesia – Fisherman catch a Chinese underwater drone in the Lombok Strait

• The Lombok Strait, a strategically vital deepwater passage closely watched by the US and Australia.
• The logo of the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation is visible on the side of the drone (SCMP).
• CSIC mainly develops submarines, naval vessels and equipment for underwater monitoring or surveys.
• Makes catch-of-the-day more interesting!

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Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,813/oz vs US$4,647/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 98.5moz vs 98.5moz previous

Platinum US$2,040/oz vs US$1,965/oz previous

Palladium US$1,543/oz vs US$1,491/oz previous

Silver US$77.1/oz vs US$72.2/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 798.0moz vs 798.1moz previous

Rhodium US$10,100/oz vs US$10,100/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$12,729/t vs US$12,419/t previous

Aluminium US$3,503/t vs US$3,506/t previous

Nickel US$17,335/t vs US$17,020/t previous

Zinc US$3,343/t vs US$3,301/t previous

Lead US$1,961/t vs US$1,939/t previous

Tin US$48,275/t vs US$46,350/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$94.4/bbl vs US$111.1/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices tumbled ~15% to below $100/bbl after the US and Iran agreed to a 2-week ceasefire that would also allow marine vessels safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, as the API estimated a US inventory w/w build of 3.7mb to crude oil, offset by draws of 4.0mb to gasoline and 0.6mb to distillate stocks.
• The EIA’s STEO forecasts an average $96/bbl Brent oil price in 2026 based on an end to the conflict in April and return to pre-conflict global production levels later this year, before falling to average $76/bbl in 2027. The global oil inventory balance is now expected to be in deficit by 0.3mb/d in 2026, before rebounding to a surplus of 3.3mb/d next year.
• European energy prices also fell following confirmation of the ceasefire, as France's average nuclear generation fell 3% w/w to 74% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.

Natural Gas €44.6/MWh vs €50.8/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $84.8/lb vs $84.8/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$105.7/t vs US$106.4/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$471.7/t vs US$468.6/t

HCC FOB Australia US$233.5/t vs US$233.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$140.5/t vs US$141.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$112,439/t vs US$109,494/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$22,268/t vs US$22,117/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,080/t vs US$2,080/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$2,443/mtu vs US$2,443/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$248/lb vs US$253/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.8/lb vs US$5.8/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.8/kg vs US$28.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$260/t vs US$258/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,759/t vs US$2,759/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,150/t vs US$1,142/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$397.5/t vs US$397.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

UK EV sales reach highest ever level in March

• According to data published yesterday by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), UK EV sales rose to their highest ever level in March, with 86,120 registrations.
• These sales figures suggest that the fuel price surge caused by the war in the Middle East is nudging buyers towards EVs.
• However, EV registrations remain 10 points below the 33% target for this year under the government’s zero-emission vehicle mandate.
• Manufacturers face fines of as much as £12,000 per vehicle for failing to comply, but can avoid them by trading credits with rivals, among other options.

BYD announces new Megawatt flash charging platform

• BYD's new Super e-Platform will feature Megawatt flash charging that the company says will match charging to refuelling speeds.
• At its peak charging speed, the MW charger will add 2km per second of range, or 5 minutes of charging for 400km.
• BYD plan to install 4,000 of these stations in China and 20,000+ globally.
• Grant Donald of Liontown (ASX: LTR), a battery minerals provider, posted on LinkedIn that each charging station requires 1.5MWh of battery capacity, which would total 30GWh battery capacity against the global market of 1.6TWh in 2025 (approx. 2%)

Company News:

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Aris Mining (ARIS CN) C$28, Mkt Cap C$5.8bn – Gold production ramp up continues at Segovia, Marmato CIP plant due 4Q26

• LatAm gold producer Aris reports production results for 1Q26.
• The Company produced 74.3koz over the period, selling 74.8koz at average realised prices of $4,860/oz.
• Cash balance reported at $470m, up $80m qoq.
• Production breakdown:
  • Segovia: 66.6koz vs 63.1koz prior quarter
  • Marmato: 7.8koz vs 6.7koz prior quarter.
• Management expects 2026 production to be weighted toward 2H26, with first gold from Marmato CIP due 4Q26.

Bezant Resources (BZT LN) 0.08p, Mkt cap £12.6m – Increased MRE at the Hope & Gorob project, Namibia

• Bezant Resources has issued a new mineral resource estimate (MRE) for its Hope & Gorob project in Namibia.
• The new estimate, which shows a “sevenfold increase in the Hope open pittable Mineral Resource from the original 2023 estimate which … [the company says] … has a profound impact on the near-term development of the mine with additional mining costs benefits accruing from a significant reduction in the strip ratio from 11:1 to 9:1”.
• The new estimate totals 3.02mt of ‘Measured Indicated & Inferred’ resources at an average grade of 1.24% copper, 4.59g/t silver and 0.21g/t gold.
• Over 50% of the resource tonnage (1.59mt) is classified as ‘Measured & Indicated’ at an average grade of 1.35% copper, 5.0g/t silver and 0.22g/t gold with ~ 68% of the ‘Measured & Indicated’ tonnage classed as ‘Measured’.
• The larger resource extends the projected life of the Hope Pit to “7.5 years at a production rate of 0.4Mt per annum feed rate into the ore sorter” compared to the previously envisaged 1 year.
• Today’s announcement says that a “further 1.3Mt of low-grade material (0.3 to 0.5% Cu) occurring within the pit shell but excluded from the 2026 Mineral Resource can be upgraded through the on-site ore sorter and will add to annual production”.
• It also explains that “Significant mineralisation occurs outside of the current pit shell which has not been included in the 2026 Resource … [which internal estimates suggest could add] … a further minimum 5 years of open pittable production”.
• Describing the new MRE as “a very positive outcome” Executive Chairman, Colin Bird, said that the “Reduction in stripping rates, amounts to significant cost saving and the increase in open cut mine life is very satisfying whilst the open cut mining tonnes will be even further extended”.

Eramet (ERA LN) €53.5, Mkt cap €1.5bn - Duval family appoints Lazard to explore options for its 37% interest in Eramet

• The Company outlined plans to raise €500m this year to support the balance sheet earlier in February.
• Financial position has been hit by falling manganese, nickel and mineral sands prices and a fire at the mineral sands operation in Senegal.
• Additionally, the Eramet has been involved in a governance crisis with CEO and CFO leaving the Company.
• Chair and former CEO Christel Bories has been appointed as a replacement temporarily.
• The €1.5bn miner had nearly €2bn in net debt with ND/EBITDA ratio at 14.9x as of YE25 and reported an almost €500m loss last year.
• French government, the second largest investor with 27%, has agreed in principle to an equity raise.

Firefly Metals (FFM AU) A$2, Mkt Cap A$1.56bn – Core Zone infill drilling supports PEA due mid-2026

• Firefly Metals reports drilling results from the high-grade ‘Core Zone’ from their Green Bay project in Newfoundland.
• The high-grade Core Zone holds an MRE of 8.8mt at 3.9% CuEq in M&I and an additional 10.9mt at 3.8% CuEq Inferred.
• Assay results reported today boost the team’s confidence in converting inferred MRE tonnage into M&I category.
• Highlight assays include:
  • MUG25-96: 71m at 4% CuEq (inc. 19.2m at 7.5% CuEq)
  • MUG25-209: 53m at 4.1% CuEq (inc. 18.2m at 5.8% CuEq)
• Management notes ‘strong continuity of mineralisation at Green Bay, particularly in the high-grade Core Zone and adjacent VMS zones.’
• The Core Zone has been traced over 800m of mineralisation and remains open, with the deepest hole intercepting 49m at 6.1% CuEq.
• Management considers the Core Zone to be a potential feed source in the early years of production.
• Firefly is aiming to deliver initial economic study results mid-2026, to PEA level.
• Company is due to begin maiden drilling at the Tilt Cove project in the coming months, as part of their wider regional exploration programme.
• Firefly reports A$251m in cash as of 31st December 2025

Greatland Resources (GGP LN) 761p, Mkt Cap £4,485m – Strong cash generation from Telfer

• Greatland Resources produced 82.7koz Au and 4kt Cu over the March quarter.
• The Company reports sales over the quarter of 97koz Au and 4.6kt Cu.
• Cash at 31st March reported at A$1.2bn, up from A$948m at 31st December, with no debt.
• Company notes ‘Telfer is not currently impacted by diesel supply disruptions.’
• Telfer stockpiles currently stand at 22mt at 0.36g/t Au and 0.05% Cu,
• Management expects FY26 gold production at or above the upper end of the 260-310koz Au range.

GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc (GROC LN) 3.22, Mkt cap 8.4m – Drill contract, geotechnical and hydrological surveys

• GreenRoc Strategic Materials reports the signing of its Phase III drilling contract for the Amitsoq underground graphite mine in Greenland.
• GreenRoc has also appointed SLR Consulting to run geotechnical and hydrogeological surveys in and around the mine site.
• Up to 12 holes will be drilled by  MEDL ‘Mineral Exploration Drilling Ltd’ ranging ~130-285m for up to ca 2,200m of drilling.
• Resource extension: Phase III is designed to increase the scale of the underground graphite resource and to support the planned PFS.
• Holes will be drilled using NQ3 (triple-tube) system for improved core recovery in fractured ground.
• The drill program is designed to bring a substantial part of the inferred mineral resource into the measured and indicated resource.
• Current MRE (2023):  7.38mt at 21.21% graphite plus inferred resources of 15.67mt at 20.04%.
• Geotechnical work will check the planned mining method and stope designs with the shape of the orebody and ground conditions.
• The hydrogeological study should also check the influence of water pressure on geotechnical safety and mine water management and inflows.
• Funding: GreenRoc has a £1.2m grant from the Danish government alongside a €5.2m secured loan facility from Danish Export and Investment Fund (EIFO) of which €3.3m was available for drawdown as of 27 March 2026.

Rock Tech Lithium (RCK CN) C$0.9, Mkt Cap C$23m – A C$200m strategic partnership with BMI Group

• The Company announces a strategic partnership and C$200m planned investment with BMI Group for the lithium conversion facility in Red Rock, Ontario.
• BMI Group is a Canada based industrial infrastructure platform company.
• BMI is expected to invest up to $200m in the Project as part of a broader equity structure to be finalised.
• In a short term, parties agreed to start a non-dilutionary funding programme of up to C$30m whereby every dollar contributed by Rock Tech to be matched by the BMI Group and government funding.
• Funding to be used for engineering studies, environmental and permitting work ahead of FID by end of 2026.
• The 32ktpa LCE Red Rock Converter is based on Rock Tech’s 24ktpa LCE Guben Converter (Germany) project design.
• The Guben Converter is fully permitted and designated as a Strategic Project under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act.
• The Red Rock Converter is planned to be located in the BMI Group’s industrial site ~100km east of Thunder Bay and 60km south of Rock Tech’s Georgia Lake lithium deposit.
• Georgia Lake is a PFS stage hard rock spodumene project hosting ~15mt at 0.91% Li2O for 0.3mt LCE in total resource (OP and UG domains).

Tungsten West (TUN LN) 37.75p, Mkt Cap £455m – Initial tungsten production from Hemerdon expected during Q3

• Tungsten West, which recently raised additional funds earlier this year to advance the resumption of tungsten production at the Hemerdon mine in Devon, has issued a progress report on its key Q1 achievements for the restart.
• Set against a background of “extremely positive market conditions” the company highlights its plan to “re-start of fines gravity processing in Q3 2026 … [and its plans] … to accelerate towards the commencement of full plant commissioning from Q1 2027”.
• The company points out that its August 2025 feasibility study “was based on the market pricing of tungsten ("APT") of US$400/metric tonne unit ("mtu") and tin at US$32,500/tonne ("t"). The prevailing market prices as of 31 March 2026 are now in the order of US$2,995/mtu for APT and over US$46,000/t for tin, further strengthening the Project economics”.
• Site works include the start of preparatory earthworks for the “the Mineral Processing Facility … and the Mine Waste Facility” and the appointment of major subcontractors and the conclusion of a “£22.3 million … [agreement] … with McHale Komatsu, the Komatsu equipment supplier in the UK”.
• In addition, Tungsten West reports progress with “due diligence on the remaining project debt package of up to US$85.0 million, including a US$25.0 million first tranche funding tailored to the Project schedule”.
• Due diligence on the US$85m debt “is now being completed, with delivery of the … report expected during April 2026. Definitive documentation for the Facility is concurrently being negotiated with the Lenders”.
• As well as the operational and financing progress, Tungsten West has strengthened its operational team with the appointments of:
  • The former processing manager at Masan’s Niu Phao tungsten operation in Vietnam, Stephen Taylor, as Director of Processing; and
  • John Roberts, formerly at Barrick's North Mara mine in Tanzania as Director of Maintenance; and
  • Former Senior Mining Engineer at Hemerdon, Henry Chalcraft, as Director of Mining: and
  • Hemerdon’s former Sustainability Manager, Barnaby Hudson, as Manager responsible for environmental and social governance issues.
• Tungsten West also reports an agreement with Hargreaves “to terminate the existing mining service contract … [as it moves towards an owner operated] … mining” model using equipment supplied by McHale Komatsu.
• CEO, Jeff Court, thanked “all our existing and new employees, shareholders and partners for the hard work, dedication and support to get us to this stage of development” and explained that Tungsten West is “rapidly bringing Hemerdon back into production to address the ever-increasing supply gap for strategic tungsten concentrate … [and confirmed that progress] … is going well across all fronts, with first phase production targeted in Q3 2026”.

Conclusion: Tungsten West is targeting initial production from Hemerdon later this year as it moves to full plant commissioning from Q1 2027

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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