Hives - otherwise known as chronic idiopathic urticaria (CIU) - is a painful, itchy skin condition, that is often caused by an allergic reaction to food &/or drugs.
Currently there is no cure - although the best advice is to try to remove the trigger(s), which is not a simple task. Hence doctors usually prescribe antihistamines to provide some relief.
Worst still, approx 1% of the world’s population (ie 75m people) suffer significant & often unpredictable discomfort/pain that can last months or even years (Source: Novartis).
Hopefully though there’ll soon be an answer. Today immunodiagnostics firm Oncimmune (ONC ) said that it had signed a 2nd follow-on ImmunoINSIGHTS contract with a top 5 global pharmaceutical group - to profile 350+ CIU patients for biomarkers (re Immunoglobulin G (IgG) autoantibodies).
The aim being to better characterise this debilitating disease, stratify patients for treatment and ultimately support the clinical development of a new CIU therapeutic.
Elsewhere #ONC also said that it had opened a new office at the Cambridge Innovation Center in Boston - which is the one of the US’ leading Biopharma hot-beds for drug development.
Here the new site will be used by Chief Business Officer, Cameron Barnard, and enable the wider ImmunoINSIGHTS team to operate in closer proximity to many of the company's North American clients.
So what does this all mean?
Well, I believe ONC has reached an inflexion point, given that demand continues to rise and the ImmunoINSIGHTS service generates 80%+ gross margins (re high EBITDA drop through rates).
In terms of the numbers, Singer Capital Markets are forecasting FY22 adjusted EBITDA of £2.2m (vs -£3.4m LY) on sales of £12.1m (£3.7m LY). Climbing to £15.5m & £4.1m respectively 12 months later, reflecting the group's favourable operating leverage & IP rich science.
Plus in the event of a takeover, I would estimate the stock would attract a 4x ‘R&D investment’ multiple (vs 4x Grail & Thrive >5x). Which based on c. £70m spent already on the biobank/tech platform, would generate a theoretical £280m valuation, or around 400p/share vs 145p today.
CEO Adam M Hill adding: "This contract along with [many] others, further demonstrates the growing commercial momentum behind our ImmunoINSIGHTS platform."
Watch out for interims later this month.