SP Angel . Morning View . Friday 24.04.26

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

SP Angel - No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026

Aura Energy* (AURA LN)  – SGU designates Häggån the deposit to be of national interest for valuable materials

Endeavour Mining (EDV LN)  – DFS results for Assafou follow major derisking programme, FID due this year

Freeport-McMoran (FCX US) – Shares slide as Grasberg ramp up delayed

PLS (PLS AU) – Quarterly update reiterates FY26 guidance with Ngungaju restart targeted for July

Vulcan Energy (VUL AU) – Groundbreaking ceremony at downstream processing facilities (CLP)

Gold ($4,692/oz) holds lower ground as oil climbs amid ongoing Middle East conflict

• Gold prices have held below $4,700/oz amid ongoing concerns of re-escalation in the Middle East.
• US Treasuries have sold off amid higher oil prices, as investors price in continued disruption to global energy markets.
• The 10-year yield has risen to 4.33%, lifting the dollar and weighing on precious metals.
• The dollar index is sitting at 98.8, up from recent lows but still down c.14% since Trump’s inauguration.
• Gold’s momentum has cooled following a strong recovery after the momentum-driven sell-off triggered following the initial attacks on Iran.
• Central bank dip buying will be key to sustaining the longer-term bull market in gold prices.

Copper – Chile moves to find new sources of sulphuric acid to replace lost shipments from China

• China has stopped sulphuric acid exports to Chile forcing refiners and heap leach processors to look for new sources – prices will rise!
• China shipped 151,000t of sulphuric acid to Chile in March 2025.
• It is possible the shortage might prompt ENAMI to reopen closed copper smelters to boost acid production in Chile.
• Sulphur can be easily sourced from Mexico, Canada and the US but it will take time to build more acid plants. Note, water is always a major issue in Chile.
• SHFE copper stocks fell -39,083t (-16%) to 201,373t.
• LME copper stocks also fell 7,650t (-1.9%) this week to 392,575t from 400,225 on Friday

Nickel – INSG see 32,000t deficit in the nickel market this year

• The INSG ‘The International Nickel Study Group’ see a deficit developing in the nickel market this year of 32,000t
• Last year saw a 288,000t surplus as Chinese operators ramped up production in Indonesia
• Tighter environmental regulations for mining are curtailing production of nickel, tin and probably a few other critical metals .
• Eramet’s PT Weda Bay Nickel production has also been suspended
• SHFE nickel stocks rose 1,029t (+1.5%) to this week to 68,872 tons;
• LME nickel stocks are stable today 277,548t (-0.2%) from 278,184t last Friday

Tin  stocks fall sharply in Shanghai

• SHFE tin stocks fall -404t (-4.9%) to 7,834t this week
• LME tin stocks rose to 8,710t today from 8,630t last Friday

IG TV Gold report: https://youtu.be/PliTL-z0n54?si=HvvFdldYY7oHK7s7



Currencies

US$1.1690/eur vs 1.1701/eur previous. Yen 159.68/$ vs 159.67/$. SAr 16.602/$ vs 16.563/$. $1.348/gbp vs $1.349/gbp. 0.714/aud vs 0.715/aud.

CNY 6.350/$ vs 6.834/$. Dollar Index 98.80 vs 98.65 previous.

Economics

US soldier who placed on bets on prediction market Polymarket on the course of a military operation in Venezuela was charged by US prosecutors. (FT)

• An active duty soldier allegedly made 13 bets worth $33k on “US Forces in Venezuela” and “Maduro out” by January 31 markets over December/January.
• Estimated winnings were over $400k.
• Polymarket wrote “when we identified a user trading on classified government information, we referred the matter to the DOJ & co-operated with their investigation… insider trading has no place on Polymarket”.

US – Brent climbs over $105 as IRGC is reported to have laid more sea mines in the strait this week.

• President Trump issued a “shoot and kill” order on any boat laying mines in the region.
• The USS George HW Bush aircraft carrier arrived in the Middle East region from the Indian Ocean side.
• This is the third carrier strike group with 5,000 more troops in the region.

Israel/Lebanon – President Trump said Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend the ceasefire by three weeks.

• New arrangement extends the previously agreed 10d ceasefire on April 16.
• Hizbollah and Israeli forces are reported to have traded fire overnight despite the Trump announcement, although, the intensity has gone down.

Germany – Business sentiment gauge dropped more than expected posting the lowest reading since May 2020 this month.

• The sentiment weakened across all sectors.
• Ifo Business Climate Index fell to 84.4 in April, down from 86.3 in March.

South Korea - Q1 GDP rose 3.6% yoy to 1.7% vs -0.2% in Q4

EU - Consumer confidence fell further to -20.6 vs -16.4

UK – US considers UK claim on Falkland Islands

• More noise from Trump but unlike Greenland, Europe is highly unlikely to care much about the Falklands.
• Has Javier Miele persuaded Trump to take the Falkland Islands and hand them over to Argentina?
• King Charles might have something to say about this over dinner in the US next week.

Iran – IRGC threaten to cut internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz

Trump orders US military to ‘shoot and kill’ Iranian small boats that are deploying mines in the Strait of Hormuz

• It wouldn’t surprise us if the IRGC ran trips of school kids around the Strait of Hormuz while pretending to deploy mines.
• The US also seized another tanker associated with the smuggling of Iranian oil.
• The IRGC attacked three cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz in the week taking two ships and their crews hostage
• Iranian officials speak of ‘iron unity’ following Trump claims of infighting within Iran’s leadership.
• The situation is likely to get worse before it gets better and the IRGC are not about to give in.
• Unfortunately, the generals running Iran are believed to be more hard-line than the more moderate Ayatollahs
• The IRGC has long prepared for this conflict and simply split into ~32 self-governing district units following the airstrikes which decapitated their leadership.
• Trump has admitted that his decision to kill several top Iranian leaders has come with complications.
• The Iranian parliamentary speaker commented that Iran has no radicals or moderates and Iran would make the aggressor criminal regret his actions.
• The best the rest of the world can hope for is a slowing and calming of military action in the region.
• Unfortunately, once the IRGC has dug out and rearmed its buried rocket launchers more missiles will fly again.

PMI data for April shows positive growth in manufacturing

• The services data is more mixed except for India which continues to show strong momentum
• Disruption to oil and gas supplies into Asia will dent PMI data from many Asian nations



Precious metals:

Gold US$4,689/oz vs US$4,706/oz previous

Gold ETFs 99.0moz vs 99.0moz previous

Platinum US$1,985/oz vs US$2,039/oz previous

Palladium US$1,475/oz vs US$1,520/oz previous

Silver US$74.5/oz vs US$75.9/oz previous

Silver ETFs 799.8moz vs 798.6moz previous

Rhodium US$10,150/oz vs US$10,150/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,259/t vs US$13,297/t previous

Aluminium US$3,615/t vs US$3,569/t previous

Nickel US$18,713/t vs US$18,380/t previous

Zinc US$3,462/t vs US$3,447/t previous

Lead US$1,968/t vs US$1,961/t previous

Tin US$50,331/t vs US$50,510/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$106.9/bbl vs US$98.0/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices see-sawed almost 20% this week as market sentiment fell towards a near term breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations, with limited marine vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz due to both sides’ naval blockades.
• The EIA’s petroleum report estimated w/w US inventory draws of 2.2mb to crude (inclusive of SPR withdrawals), 4.6mb to gasoline and 3.4mb to distillate stocks, with refinery utilisation falling 0.5% to 89.1% on 13.6mb/d of domestic output.
• Henry Hub prices edged lower after the EIA reported a 103bcf w/w storage build to 2,063bcf, with US inventories now 7% above last year’s level and 7% above the five-year average as LNG export vessel capacity rose 1bcf w/w to 134bcf. Golden Pass also shipped its first cargo this week to become the 10th active LNG terminal in the US.

Natural Gas €44.5/MWh vs €42.1/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $86.8/lb vs $86.7/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$106.7/t vs US$107.2/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$471.5/t vs US$472.1/t

HCC FOB Australia US$230.5/t vs US$231.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$127.8/t vs US$120.8/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$120,351/t vs US$119,693/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$24,143/t vs US$24,188/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,390/t vs US$2,390/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$2,443/mtu vs US$2,443/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$213/lb vs US$218/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.8/lb vs US$5.8/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.6/kg vs US$28.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$249/t vs US$250/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,799/t vs US$2,799/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,149/t vs US$1,151/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$405.0/t vs US$405.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,125.0/kg vs US$3,125.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Xpeng to deliver commercial flying car and humanoid robot in 2027

• The Chinese automaker will begin large-scale production of its flying car, a modular vehicle with a six-wheel ground unit and a detachable two-seat eVTOL in 2027.
• The ground module provides a 1,000km driving range and functions as a charging station and hangar.
• China's state-sponsored eVTOL infrastructure makes the platform possible, with over 1200 landing pads built to date.
• Xpeng have received 7,000 preorders for the RMB2m ($280,000) vehicle.
• Xpeng will also begin mass production of its humanoid robot in Q4 2026.

Chinese automakers to bring Lidar systems to low-cost EVs

• Some Chinese automakers could light detection and ranging (Lidar) sensor-based intelligent driving systems to models costing a low as RMB60,000 ($8,795).
• Lidar systems have been traditionally reserved for high-end models, driven by the high manufacturing cost of components.
• The average price of lidar sensors in China was around RMB545,000 $80,000 in 2016 and was just RMB1,350 ($200) in 2025.
• Lidar units in the US still cost between $1,000 and $75,000.
• Leapmotor launched a new model in March this year equipped with Lidar systems, priced at RMB86,000 ($12,600).

Company News:

Aura Energy* (AURA LN) 7.95p, Mkt Cap £79m – SGU designates Häggån the deposit to be of national interest for valuable materials

• The SGU ‘Geological Survey of Sweden’ has formally proposed designating the Häggån polymetallic deposit as a national interest for valuable materials.
• Importantly, the designation provides legal protection against activities that could obstruct future extraction.
• Häggån hosts a suite of critical minerals including uranium, vanadium, potash, nickel, zinc, and molybdenum.
• Critically, the deposit is seen as an important resource for fossil-free nuclear energy.
• The SGU is the sole competent authority responsible for designating national interest areas for valuable substances or materials under Swedish law.
• The group provides evidence-based geological assessments to serve Sweden's national interests in the short and long term.
• Today’s designation means municipalities and state authorities may not grant permits for activities which could prevent or significantly hinder the extraction of strategically significance mineral resources from Häggån giving the project effective state protection.
• Aura management recently deferred the spin-out of the Häggån project into a TSX listing where investors would contribute C$10m for 19.7% leaving Aura with 78.7%.
• Discussions with strategic investors has recently valued the Häggån project at ~C$50m.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Aura Energy

Endeavour Mining (EDV LN) 4,553p, Mkt Cap £11.2bn – DFS results for Assafou follow major derisking programme, FID due this year

• Endeavour Mining released DFS results for its flagship growth project Assafou yesterday.
• The DFS envisages average annual production of 320kozpa over the first eight years, with a LOM annual production of 257kozpa over 16 years.
• The open pit project will feature a 5mtpa CIL plant and holds reserves of 4.4moz at 1.76g/t Au.
• CAPEX has increased 45% from PFS assumptions to $1,061m.
• CAPEX increase reflects $130m of site infrastructure alterations, $91m of additional owner costs, $50m of plant modifications, $38m in mining and pre-stripping expectations.
• Expected LOM AISC up 8% to $1,026/oz for first eight years and $1,062/oz over LOM.
• Post-tax NPV5 of $2.1bn and IRR of 28% at $2,500/oz Au.
• At $4,000/oz, the post-tax NPV5 increases to $5.1bn with IRR of 55%.
• Reserves increased by 264koz from the 2024 estimate
• Management highlights the exploration potential at Assafou to extend the project’s life, with over 20 prospective targets identified for satellite deposits.
• Endeavour is targeting FID before 2026-end and sees a 24-30 month construction period.
• Management sees Assafou as the cornerstone of their growth strategy to 1.5mozpa production by 2030.

Freeport-McMoran (FCX US) $61.5, Mkt Cap $88.4bn – Shares slide as Grasberg ramp up delayed

• Freeport McMoran reports quarterly results for the March quarter.
• Revenue reported at $6.2bn with operating income of $2.1bn.
• Net income at $881m, up from $352m.
• Cash fell from $4.4bn to $3.7bn over the year, with debt steady.
• Copper production at 300kt with gold production 650koz for the quarter.
• Net cash costs reported at $1.91/lb.
• Importantly, Freeport reports a delay to ramp up at Grasberg following the mud rush incident last year, now projecting a return to full capacity by year end 2027.
• Freeport expects Grasberg to operate at 65% from 2H26 vs previous expectations of 85%.
• Stock down 13% on the Grasberg delay.

PLS (PLS AU) A$5.8, Mkt Cap A$18.7bn – Quarterly update reiterates FY26 guidance with Ngungaju restart targeted for July

• Production 232kt SC5.3, +12%qoq on higher throughput and grades.
• 1.1mt processed at 1.4% Li2O with 75.4% recoveries reported.
• Sales 196kt S5.2, -16%qoq.
• Cash costs US$362/SC FOB (-6%qoq).
• Cash costs US$510/SC CIF (+8%qoq).
• Realised price US$1,867/SC5.2 CIF (US$2,155/SC6), +61%qoq.
• Revenues A$567m, +52%qoq.
• The Company monitors fuel and other supply availability with issues reported to date.
• No material affect expected through FY26 with potential impact coming from the mining side (diesel usage).
• The Pilgangoora Plant uses locally sourced LNG and solar/battery system with supplementary diesel generation as required.
• Ngungaju restart approved and planned for July 2026.
• P2000 FS remains on track for Dec26 quarter, assessing if project timelines can be expedited.
• Colina (Brazil) FS ongoing with outcomes due Dec27 quarter.
• First production from the Mid-Stream Demonstration Plant (lithium phosphate) expected Sep26 quarter.
• Closing cash balance climbed to A$1,455m, up from A$954m (Dec25).
• FY26 guidance reiterated.
• FY27 guidance to be released Jun26 quarter.

Vulcan Energy (VUL AU) A$3.7, Mkt Cap A$1.7bn – Groundbreaking ceremony at downstream processing facilities (CLP)

• The Company breaks ground at the Central Lithium Chemicals Plant (CLP) at Infraserv Industrial Park Höchst in Frankfurt.
• The plant will convert lithium chloride recovered from pumped to surface brines at DLE facilities into LHM using electrolysis.
• A groundbreaking ceremony at the upstream lithium extraction plant (Geothermal and Lithium Extraction Plant, G-LEP) in Landau was held late last year.
• Lionheart Phase 1 production target is for 24kt LHM.

SP Angel - No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026

No.1 for Precious Metals: Q1 2026

No.1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.

This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.

This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II - Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return

SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange.