SP Angel . Morning View . Thursday 16.04.26

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) – Continued cash build amid tight cost control

Great Southern Copper (GSCU LN)  – Exploration at the Monolith target, Cerro Negro, Chile

Great Western Mining (GWMO LN)  – 7000ft drilling programme due to start in July, MRE targeted for 4Q26

Mila Resources (MILA LN)  – Drilling extends the known strike length of mineralisation at Yarrol, Queensland

Oriole Resources (ORR LN)  – Early stage exploration at Eastern CLP progresses

PMET Resources* (PMET CN)  – Agreement with Koch for caesium processing potential

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN)  – BUY – 18.5p – FY25 lays the ground for catalyst rich 2026/27

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN)  – DFS study with support from Rio Tinto highlights scale and economics of Kasiya Rutile project

CATL eyes $4.4bn investment in critical minerals investments to secure supply chain

• EV battery maker CATL is investing $4.4bn to expand its mining business over raw material supply concerns.
• The funds will aim to ‘pursue high-quality mineral projects at home and abroad, and safeguard supply of raw materials.’
• CATL’s major lithium mine Jianxiawo in Jiangxi has been suspended since August 2025, supporting a 140% rise in lithium prices.
• ESS demand continues to outpace EV demand as sales slow on reduced tax incentives.
• CATL has reportedly hired the founder of Zijin, a major global lithium producer (alongside copper and gold) to advise its mining business. (Bloomberg)

Conclusion: To us, CATL’s push further into upstream mining reflects sustained concerns over long-term supply security of key raw materials like lithium. The move to bring in Chen Jinghe, who was responsible for Zjin’s rapid growth to a top three global miner, is interesting and suggests CATL, who generated $10.5bn in net income in 2025, will move aggressively to build out its mining business in the coming years.

Gold ($4,810/oz) enjoys sustained strength as China central bank keeps buying

• Gold prices have escaped a volatile March relatively unscathed, having touched recent lows of $4,100/oz.
• The metal has gradually moved back to early February levels but remains some way off the $5,600/oz highs made in late January.
• Gold traders were likely reassured by China’s 17th consecutive purchase in March, boosting official holdings to 74.38moz.
• China has been a consistent dip buyer of gold over the past two years, as it looks to diversify its foreign reserve base and bring bullion holdings closer to US levels.
• The US holds 8.1kt in gold vs China’s 2.3kt.
• Other trends remain intact for gold’s bull run, with persistent concerns over G7 budget deficit levels and increased interest from BRIC countries in ‘dedollarising’ trade.
• Elsewhere, we are watching potential issues with Fed chair Nominee Warsh’s appointment, due next month.
• Trump’s effort to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook is currently being examined by the Supreme Court, with the White House’s increased efforts to influence the Central Bank impacting confidence in US monetary policy.
• US Treasury yields remain elevated at 4.28%, as markets reduce rate cut expectations amid mounting inflation concerns from the global energy shock.

Rare Earths – Sprott launched the first REE ETF providing exposure to ex China equities in the space.

• The Sprott Rare Earths Ex-China ETF (Nasdaq: REXC) includes investments into >30 REE companies including Lynas (~21% of the ETF) and MP Materials (~20%).

Australian fuel prices likely to rise following major fire at one of just two refineries in Australia

• Sabotage or simple gas leak caused by a faulty mechanical part in the facility's mogas alkylation plant.
• The fire at the Viva Energy refinery in Geelong near Melbourne.
• Australia’s Lytton refinery continues to operate at full capacity.

ii Mining Insight videos from Cape Town:

• Mining Insights: global trends in critical metals
• Rare earth metals: what investors should know
• Critical minerals: China and Trump
• Outlook for gold and silver price

IG TV commodities: https://youtu.be/oE6-k3hQDsM?si=sXBMY_UOZpvMP8EA

IG TV Oil&Gas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlMVGvbgE9o



Currencies

US$1.1795/eur vs 1.1788/eur previous. Yen 158.83/$ vs 158.96/$. SAr 16.349/$ vs 16.353/$. $1.357/gbp vs $1.356/gbp. 0.718/aud vs         0.714/aud. CNY 6.817/$ vs 6.819/$.

Dollar Index 98.01 vs   98.18 previous.

Economics

US – President Trump threatened to fire US Fed Chair if he does not leave the post.

• Jerome Powell’s term as chair ends in May but he is set to stay on the Board of Governors until 2028.
• Powell said that if his successor is not confirmed before his terms ends in May, he would remain in post for the time being.
• “I’ll have to fire him, OK, if he’s not leaving on time. I’ve held back firing him. I’ve wanted to fire him, but I hate to be controversial,” Trump said.

China – 1Q26 growth comes in at 5% beating market estimates (4.8%) helped by industrial production as private spending slowed.

• Slower growth in retail sales partly reflected the impact of a cutback in auto subsidies.
• GDP (%yoy, 1Q/4Q/Est): 5.0 / 4.5 / 4.8
• Retail Sales (%YTD, Mar/Feb/Est): 2.4 / 2.8 / 2.5
• Industrial Production (%YTD, Mar/Feb/Est): 6.1 / 6.3 / 5.8
• FAI (%YTD, Mar/Feb/Est): 1.7 / 1.8 / 1.9
• Property Investment (%YTD, Mar/Feb/Est): -11.2 / -11.1/ -11.5
• Residential Property Sales (%YTD, Mar/Feb/Est): -18.5 / -21.8 / NA

UK – The economy expanded 0.5%mom in February beating estimates (0.1%) with manufacturing, services and construction all contributing to growth.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,820/oz vs    US$4,811/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 98.9moz vs 98.7moz previous

Platinum US$2,133/oz vs US$2,110/oz previous

Palladium US$1,590/oz vs US$1,591/oz previous

Silver US$80.1/oz vs US$79.3/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 800.7moz vs 799.9moz previous

Rhodium US$9,950/oz vs US$9,950/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,320/t vs US$13,300/t previous

Aluminium US$3,663/t vs US$3,573/t previous

Nickel US$18,340/t vs US$18,325/t previous

Zinc US$3,422/t vs US$3,360/t previous

Lead US$1,962/t vs US$1,945/t previous

Tin US$50,095/t vs US$49,895/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$95.5/bbl vs US$95.2/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices were stable as market sentiment grows more positive for a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations, which might provide greater clarity regarding a restart of marine vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
• The EIA’s weekly petroleum report estimated w/w US inventory draws of 5.1mb to crude (+1% above the 5-year average), 6.3mb to gasoline (+1% above the 5-year average) and 3.1mb to distillate stocks (-6% be/ow the 5-year-average), with refinery utilisation falling 2.4% to 89.6% on 13.6mb/d of domestic output.
• European energy prices were also broadly unchanged as EU natural gas storage levels to increase by 0.8% w/w to 29.6% full (vs 42.3% 5-Yr average), with aggregate inventory at 334TWh.

Natural Gas €42.0/MWh vs €42.7/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $86.2/lb vs $85.5/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$106.3/t vs US$104.5/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$471.4/t vs US$471.5/t

HCC FOB Australia US$232.0/t vs US$231.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$125.0/t vs US$129.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$114,051/t vs US$111,828/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$23,617/t vs US$23,026/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,200/t vs US$2,140/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$2,443/mtu vs US$2,443/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$223/lb vs US$228/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.8/lb vs US$5.8/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.8/kg vs US$28.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$253/t vs US$253/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,759/t vs US$2,759/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,152/t vs US$1,151/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$397.5/t vs US$397.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

Nissan in talks with Chery to build cars at UK plant

• Nissan are in talks with Chinese automaker Chery Auto to build cars at its Sunderland plant that is currently operating at 50%.
• The plant has separate production lines in different buildings making it easier to share the facility with other automakers.
• Nissan has held discussions with other automakers including Ford, Stellantis and Volkswagen over the last year, but nothing has materialised.
• Chery's Jaecoo 7 SUV was the best selling EV in the UK for March.

Company News:



Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) A$6.7, Mkt Cap A$7.6bn – Continued cash build amid tight cost control

• Australian gold producer Genesis produced 67.5koz over the March quarter at AISC of A$2,685/oz.
• Company also reports stockpiles at 48.5koz at 1g/t Au.
• Genesis on track to produce 260-290koz Au at A$2,500-2,700/oz AISC over FY26.
• Company reports revenue of A$439m and underlying cash build of A$252m.
• Growth CAPEX over the quarter reported at A$48m.
• Cash position increased to A$600m in the quarter, up A$196m.
• Company acquired Magnetic Resources over the quarter, aimed to boost milling capacity at Laverton to 4.5-5mtpa.
• Diesel Supply:
  • Genesis reports no interruption to diesel fuel supply to date, and highlights its Leonora and Laverton mills are powered by domestic gas sources.
  • FY26 diesel costs represent 4% of total costs at A$1.1/ltr.
  • Company has put in place contingency measures in the case of a diesel disruption event, including prioritising high grade underground ore and process surface ore stockpiles.
• Genesis is aiming to boost production to 325kozpa from FY29.

Great Southern Copper (GSCU LN) 3.1p, Mkt Cap £23m – Exploration at the Monolith target, Cerro Negro, Chile

• Great Southern Copper reports that fifteen channel samples over its Monoilith target in the Cerro Negro prospect in Chile all show copper/gold mineralisation.
• The highlighted results include:
  • A 6m wide zone at an average grade of 0.29% copper and 34.8g/t silver in CH-025; and
  • A 4m wide zone at an average grade of 0.53% copper and 47.5g/t silver in CH-030; and
  • Another 4m wide zone at an average grade of 0.38% copper and 53.2g/t silver in CH-033.
• The company also reports “Rock chip assay grades range up to 1.5% Cu and 95.8 g/t Ag … [and says that it has now delineated mineralisation] … over a 700m by 400m area and open to the south and west”.
• Monolith is located ~400m southeast of the old Mostaza mine where the company has traced mineralisation up to 400m south of the workings along the Mostaza Fault Zone.
• A map within today’s announcement shows the Monolith target on a different structure, the Cumbre Fault, with structurally controlled mineralised veins “likely related to the broader Mostaza Fault Zone”.
• CEO, Sam Garrett said that the Monolith target “remains open to the south and west, highlighting the significant growth potential of the target … [and that] … we are now ready to commence scout drilling at Monolith as part of the Phase IV drilling programme … alongside continued efforts to demonstrate the broader district-scale potential at Cerro Negro”.
• Meanwhile, “Mapping and sampling continues to the south and west of the current work, where the veins trend toward a significant zone of mapped breccia (Valle Escondida Breccia), which is also yet to be sampled”.
• Great Southern Copper also plans to extend its induced polarisation (IP) geophysics “to cover the Monolith zone”.

Conclusion: Great Southern Copper’s exploration at Cerro Negro, which has largely focussed on the Mostaza Fault has now identified mineralisation on an additional structure and plans scout drilling and geophysics to help understand the expansion potential.

Great Western Mining (GWMO LN) 2.75p, Mkt Cap £11.3m – 7000ft drilling programme due to start in July, MRE targeted for 4Q26

• Great Western, a greenfield explorer in Mineral County, Nevada, provide an update on their tungsten programme.
• GWM holds the Defender-Pine Crow Tungsten Project in Nevada, currently the primary focus of the Company.
• The Company has completed machine-cut channel sampling, returning 6m at 0.17% WO3, 16m at 0.3% WO3 and 2m at 0.66% WO3.
• GWM has a stated goal of delivering a maiden MRE in 4Q26 for the Project, over a 3km mineralised trend at Defender.
• Mapping and geophysical surveys are underway, with additional channel cut samples due 2Q26.
• Today the Company announces it has signed a contract with Major Drilling America to start a 2,100m RC drilling programme.
• The drilling is intended to support a maiden MRE due 4Q26.
• Drilling is due to start July 2026.

Conclusion: A bold target from Great Western to deliver a maiden MRE at the end of 2026 at their tungsten project in Nevada. A 2,133m RC programme is due to start in July, targeting similar mineralised systems to the Pilot Mountain project 30m away. The Pine-Crow and Defender projects hold two historic tungsten workings with the Company theorising that the connecting 1.2km corridor may form part of a wider 3km mineralised system.

Mila Resources (MILA LN) 1p, Mkt Cap £7.4m – Drilling extends the known strike length of mineralisation at Yarrol, Queensland

• Mila Resources reports assay results from its reverse-circulation (RC) drilling at the Yarrol Gold Project in Queensland.
• The company says that the RC drilling confirmed “gold mineralisation at the southernmost positions drilled to date at Yarrol North, extending the confirmed strike length of just this one target to over 500m”.
• The drilling programme “is designed to build the dataset required for an initial JORC mineral resource estimate”.
• Results highlighted in today’s announcement are:
• A 9m wide intersection at an average grade of 1.45g/t gold from a depth of 31m in hole MYA-RC-0221 including a single metre intersection grading 1.45g/t at 31m depth and another single metre at 1.35g/t at 37m depth; and
• A 5m wide intersection at an average grade of 1.00g/t gold from a depth of 42m in hole MYA-RC-0219 including 2m grading 1.44g/t at 43m depth.
• The company also reports rock chip sample results from its Monal West project where initial “rock chip results from the Jazza target return anomalous Au, Cu and Ag, with best result of 1.8% Cu, 0.72 g/t Au and 51.4 g/t Ag”.
• The company interprets the rock chip results as “potential surface expressions of a mineralised system extending to depth, consistent with a substantial inherited IP anomaly beneath the licence”.
• Executive Chairman, Mark Stephenson, said that the drilling has shown that mineralisation is present on the southern and western margins of Yarrol and that it “remains open … [with] … Broad zones of gold mineralisation, with higher-grade intercepts emerging at the southern margin, right at the limits of current drilling”.
• He confirmed that Mila Resources will “run targeted ground IP surveys … [at Monal West] … to refine our targets and move them efficiently towards drill-ready status”.
• In a separate announcement today, Mila Resources reports a £600,000 placing “to extend drilling operations and advance key technical studies at Yarrol”.
• The company has placed 60m new shares at 1p each and investors “will also receive one warrant per Placing Share to subscribe for one new ordinary share at an exercise price of 1.5 per share which may be exercised from 1 December 2026 until the second anniversary of Admission”.
• We estimate that the additional shares represent approximately 8% of the enlarged capital.
• Mr. Stephenson subscribed for 5m of the placing shares taking his holding to ~25m shares “being 3.4% of the enlarged share capital on Admission”.

Conclusion: Recent RC resource drilling at Yarrol North has extended the known strike length of mineralisation to over 500m as Mila Resources works towards defining an MRE.

Oriole Resources (ORR LN) 0.31p, Mkt Cap £15m – Early stage exploration at Eastern CLP progresses

• Oriole provide an exploration update from their Eastern CLP project in Cameroon, contiguous to the 1.2moz Mbe licence.
• Oriole has been conducting exploration programmes over licences Ndom, Pokor and Niambaran.
• Rock-chip sampling at Ndom has returned gold grades up to 17g/t Au with the team identifying a NW-trending quartz-vein system similar to mineralisation at Mbe.
• The Company is currently mapping and rock-chip sampling at Pokor, targeting a gold-in-soil anomaly.
• Results from soil sampling at Niambaran are due 2H26.
• Oriole believes the Eastern CLP licence offers a ‘district-scale opportunity’ to discovery similar mineralised deposits to Mbe.

PMET Resources* (PMET CN) C$5.6, Mkt Cap C$917m – Agreement with Koch for caesium processing potential

• PMET, who are advancing the Shaakichiuwaanaan project in Quebec, have partnered with Koch to advance caesium potential at the project.
• A testwork programme has been launched to explore the potential of converting caesium-rich pollucite concetrates into caesium chemical products.
• Koch holds various proprietary methods for caesium chemicals production.
• Products will target US industrial supply chains for defense, space, energy and advanced electronics.
• Koch is a large privately held US company focused on refining, chemicals, energy and technology.
• PMET believes the caesium potential at Shaaki may provide a high-margin by-product stream.
• Shaakichiuwaanaan caesium MRE:
  • 0.68mt at 4.4% Cs2O Indicated
  • 1.7mt at 2.4% Cs2O inferred
• The MRE is open in several directions and is considered the largest in-situ pollucite-hosted caesium deposit globally.

*SP Angel analyst(s) hold shares in PMET Resources

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 5.3p, Mkt Cap £136m – FY25 lays the ground for catalyst rich 2026/27

BUY – 18.5p

• The Company released FY25 results highlighting development progress at the Barroso Lithium Project, Portugal.
• The team released an updated MRE and Exploration Target in October delivering a ~40% increase in resource.
• Updated MRE now stands at >1mt LCE within 39mt at 1.05% Li2O (M&I account for ~68%).
• New Exploration Target increased >200% pointing to a potential to add 35-62mt at 0.9-1.2% on top of the existing resource.
• The Company closed the acquisition of the Aldeia Mining Lease in December (official ownership transfer expected later in 2026) allowing to incorporate the highest grade orebody in the project area into the mine plan.
• Aldeia Block A hosts 35mt at 1.30% (vs ~1.1% total MRE grade) and remains open both on strike and at depth.
• Stakeholder engagement and land acquisition processes are ongoing.
• DFS and environmental license work continued during the period.
• The team secured an up to a conditional €110m non dilutive and non reimbursable grant from the Portugues State covering up t0 35% of total eligible development costs.
• KfW IPEX-Bank due diligence ongoing regarding a potential German Government-backed loan guarantee of up to USD270m
• -£4.1m loss reported (FY24: -£4.2m)
• Administrative costs were well managed coming in at £4.4m (FY24: £4.3m).
• Closing cash balance of £17.2m with a further £5.0m in long term bank deposits earmarked for compulsory land acquisitions (£2.4m) and completion of the Aldeia Mining Lease purchase (£2.6m).
• The Company raised ~£15m through 2025 with placings supported by major shareholders including AMG, Grupo Lusiaves and Pluris that collectively hold ~36%.
• The Company remained debt free.
• Upcoming catalysts include:
  • DFS completion and RECAPE submission (July 2026)
  • DCAPE (environmental license) award (3Q26)
  • FID (by end 2026/1Q27)
  • Project Funding (4Q26/1Q27)
  • Additional spodumene offtake Heads of Terms (by end 2026)
  • Start of construction (2027)
  • Commissioning (2028)

Conclusion: FY25 and 1Q26 highlights include major MRE update, Aldeia License acquisition, up to €110m government grant and DFS/RECAPE progress, positioning the Company to deliver on a series of key milestones in the coming 18 months. We see strong rerating potential for the Company supported by active near term newsflow, well capitalised position (~£17m cash) and strengthening lithium market.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Savannah Resources

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) 40.2p, Mkt Cap £236m – DFS study with support from Rio Tinto highlights scale and economics of Kasiya Rutile project

(Sovereign currently holds 100% of the Kasiya project. Malawi has 10% free carry right. Rio Tinto holds 18.5% of Sovereign Metals)

• Sovereign Metals have released the DFS for the Kasiya Rutile and Graphite project in Malawi.
• The project is so large and so simple that it will ‘redefine titanium metal and graphite supply chains’.
• DFS work has been extensively overseen by technical experts at Rio Tinto
• Extensive trial mining, pilot plant processing, ground rehabilitation and other trials validate and support the DFS work.
• DFS vs optimised PFS and previous pfs
• Throughput:
  • 12mtpa for Stage 1 rising to 24mtpa in Stage 2 – no change
• Production:
  • Rutile: 222,000tpa – no change
  • Graphite: 275,000 vs 233,000tpa previously
• Financial metrics:
  • Capex (Stage 1):  $727m vs $665m in the Optimised PFS and $597m in the previous PFS
  • Capex (LoM):  $1,239 vs $1,127m in the Optimised PFS and $1,250m in the previous PFS – for life of mine.
  • Sustaining capex:  $431m vs $397m in the Optimised PFS and $470 in the previous PFS
  • Operating costs:  $450/t of production vs $423/t in the Optimised PFS and $404/t in the previous PFS FOB port of Nacala
  • Revenue:  $728m vs $640mpa in the Optimised PFS and $645mpa in the previous PFS
  • Revenue (total LoM):  $16,210m vs $16,367m in the Optimised PFS and $16,121m in the previous PFS
  • EBITDA: $476m vs $409m and $405m
  • NPV@8:  $2,204m vs $2,322m vs $2,419m pre-tax
  • IRR: 23% vs 27% and 32% pre-tax

Assumptions:

• Rutile pricing: US$1,670/t vs US$1,490/t  for 95% grade rutile (FOB Nacala)
• Graphite pricing:  US$1,288/t vs US$1,290/t (FOB Nacala)
• REE: Monazite – no revenue is currently included for the Monazite stream

REE: Monazite production evaluation ongoing. The Monazite contains unusually high levels of Dysprosium, Terbium and Yttrium.

• Monazite production evaluation underway

Graphite cost: the incremental cost of graphite separation from the ore feed is just US$216/t making Kasiya, unsurprisingly, the lowest-cost graphite producer globally.

Offtake: Offtake agreements covering over 50% of Stage 1 rutile production with Mitsui and >35% of coarse flake graphite sales with Traxys

• Kasiya's rutile has high TiO₂ content, low impurity levels, and favourable particle size distribution

Titanium metal: Natural rutile is the purest and highest-grade form of naturally occurring titanium feedstock and is the preferred feedstock for titanium sponge (metal) production for use aerospace, defence and medical applications.

USA: The US produces no titanium sponge with record imports of 44,000 tonnes in 2025.

• Japan supplies over 70% of the US's titanium sponge imports.
• Western titanium sponge production is now just 9% at 81,000tpa
• Chinese sponge production has risen to 70%.
• China produces some 77% of worldwide graphite output.

Mining: Sovereign plan to use simple dry mining using draglines and 100t rigid dump trucks using a 5 and 15m two-bench design.

Mineable Pit Geometries: 2m-20m for dry mining. The soft, free-dig saprolite orebody requires no drilling, blasting, crushing or milling.

• Sovereign has identified all local village areas, burial grounds and other areas of cultural or environmental significance within the mine area.

Ore reserves (JORC):

• Ore Reserve 536mt est. Proven and Probable Ore grading at 0.95% RUT95 and 1.56% TGC.
• Rutile cut-off grade ranging from 0.7% to 1.5% RUT95 - these are very much higher than the breakeven cut-off grade of 0.4%-0.5% RUT95.
• Optimised open pit shell uses:
  • Rutile price US$1,286.81/t for Rut95
  • Graphite product price of net US$1,099.51/t;
  • Mine Opex US$1.35/t;
  • Process Opex US$5.44/t;
  • Rutile recovery of 97.6%;
  • Average Graphite recovery of 70.4%.

Tailings: There is no conventional tailings storage facility with all tailings to be stored via hydraulic co-disposal backfilling of mined-out pits.

A 50:50 fines-to-sand backfill ratio combined with organic matter and fertilizer vastly improves the growing condition of the soil.

A raw water dam wall height has been reduced to 20.7m from 23m with storage capacity of 11mm³ from 16.4mm³.

Hydropower:  Malawi's national grid is fed with hydropower.

• The local utility, ESCOM, is expanding the grid with IFC/World Bank-funding to substantially lower power costs with greater reliability.

Transport costs: US$117/t est. FOB Nacala - heavy-haul rail to the port at Nacala.

EIS: environmental and social workstreams aligned with IFC performance standards; World Bank/IFC Collaboration Agreement in place

• The IFC is a potential co-lead mandated lead arranger for project financing

Conclusion:  A modest 9% uplift in the capex combined with a 6% lift in operating costs feels like a positive result given recent inflation across the mining industry. The rise in costs naturally pulls the NPV and IRR back 5% and 17% respectively. We view the DFS numbers as overseen by Rio Tinto as relatively conservative. The DFS announcement triggers Rio Tinto’s option to become the operator of Kasiya, with Rio holding up to 180 days to exercise the option. The delivery of the Kasiya DFS is a major derisking event for Sovereign and underscores its position as a long-life asset of strategic global importance.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Sovereign Metals. The analyst has visited the Kasiya mine site and highly recommends the Malawi coffee

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.

This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.

This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II - Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return

SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange.