SP Angel . Morning View . Friday 24.10.25

Copper firms on tightening market as deficit potential rises on Enami acid leak and rising US home sales

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Newmont (NEM US) – Results show cost control and cash generation as Ahafo North begins production

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – Quarterly shows C$17m cash balance to advance exploration programmes

Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) – Exploration Agreement with First Nations group in Athabasca Basin

Rome Resource (RMR LN) – Mineral resource for Kalayi and Mont Agoma projects expected by month-end

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Cobre sales volumes recovering while drilling accelerates at Redmoor

Copper ($10,900/t) firms on tightening market as deficit potential rises on Enami acid leak and rising US home sales

 Copper prices have rallied again after Freeport announced results.

• The copper major reported Grasberg production remains suspended following the mud rush incident.
• Codelco copper premium rises 35% yoy to US$325/t
• Aurubis have been seen offering a US$315/t premium vs $228/t last year
• Could LME Zinc squeeze be repeated in copper in next few weeks with such low tonnages on warrant and in Open stock?
• Freeport expects the Indonesian operations to provide 35% of pre-incident estimates in 2026 at 270kt Cu.

ENAMI acid leak at El Salado in Atacama

• The news is prescient as ENAMI is appealing for $1.7bn to revamp its Hernan Videla Lira copper smelter which was shutdown in February.
• Upgrading the Hernan Videla Lira plant could see a restart by 2030 at 240,000tpa and could rebalance copper smelting away from China.
• Antofagasta copper production ytd stands at 477kt, with management guiding to the lower end of its targets.

Gold – continues to slide following peak of $4,382/oz on Monday

• Gold prices bounced yesterday to $4,150/oz but have since resumed their downtrend.
• Focus is on today’s US CPI data, which will be of primary focus given the suspension of labour market data amid the ongoing shutdown.
• Prices are still being bid higher in early Asian trading but the momentum is gone for now.
• Risk is back on with the October witching-hour is almost past for financial markets
• US equity futures have gained while Asian equities also surged higher gain with the Nikkei +1.35%, Shanghai +0.6% and Hang Seng +0.6%
• The White House announced Trump will meet with Xi Jinping at the side of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit – but does Xi know this?
• Trade tensions suggest the two sides are still far apart. Not to mention China’s support for Russia – its forever friend, till its not!
• Trump likes to talk and to show he is working hard on deals to settle trade and peace.

IG TV Commodity Corner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7en9LCuurE 

ii TV - Macro trends, indicators, small caps.

• Precious metals, gold and copper : https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125894076/5ccc1f796b
• FTSE 100 stocks, small-cap and lithium:https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125892775/a44f96f5a1

Economics

US – Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will meet next Thursday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, the White House said.

• That would be the first face to face meeting between two leaders since Trump started his second term.
• Discussions are expected to involve, tariffs, export restrictions, agricultural purchases, fentanyl trafficking and geopolitical issues such as Taiwan.
• The meeting comes as a trade truce between two countries is set to expire in November with higher tariffs planned to kick in from November 1.

Inflation numbers are due later today after originally scheduled report for October 15 was delayed by ongoing government shutdown.

• Estimates are for both headline and core measures to come in at 3.1% (0.4%mom and 0.3%mom).

President Trump ended trade talks with Canada in retaliation for an anti-tariff ad campaign launched in the province of Ontario.

• Ads supported by Ontario’s premier Doug Ford, a critic of Trump tariffs, feature a radio address by former president Ronald Reagan in 1987 describing such levies as detrimental to the US economy in the long term.
• Trump has accused Canada of misusing former President Ronald Reagan's words against his tariffs.
• So Canada is stuck with aluminium import tariffs of 50% for now
• US existing home sales rose 1.5% to 4.06m in September vs a fall of -0.2% in August.

China – New five year plan prioritises technological self reliance and domestic market expansion aiming to insulate the economy from foreign pressures and maintain long term growth, according to a communique following a four day meeting of the Communist Party’s Central Committee.

• The policy emphasises high-quality development through innovation in semiconductors, AI, and core industrial technologies,
• Additionally, Beijing reaffirmed its goal to boost domestic consumption and investment.

Eurozone – Business activity unexpectedly hit the highest level since May 2024 as gains in Germany offset weakness in France.

• Flash S&P Global Composite PMI increased to 52.2 in October, up from 51.2.
• Jump was driven by services, particularly in Germany, that saw the best month since May 2023.
• German Flash S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 53.8, from 52.0 and 51.5 forecast.
• French Flash S&P Global Composite PMI fell to 46.8 from 48.1.

India – Potential for US India trade deal this weekend

• We expect India to agree to stop trading Russian oil.
• While this won’t necessarily stop Indian traders operating offshore India, it will deny Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers some ports to offload in.
• Unfortunately, the move is academic as China is still trading Russian oil and is unlikely to stop trading.

UK – Retail sales unexpectedly climbed 0.5%mom in September beating all estimates and a median estimate for a 0.4%mom decline.

• The retail sector performed well despite the start of wet and cool weather following hot summer.
• That was a fourth straight increase in monthly sales.

Flash S&P Global Composite PMI climbed to 51.1 in October, up from 50.1 the previous month and 50.5 forecast.

• “October’s flash UK PMI survey brings hope that September was a low point for the economy from which business conditions are starting to improve… Business confidence has also brightened slightly, job losses have moderated, and inflationary pressures are coming back to levels consistent with the Bank of England’s 2% target,” the report read.

Currencies

US$1.1617/eur vs 1.1595/eur previous. Yen 152.86/$ vs 152.46/$. SAr 17.320/$ vs 17.386/$. $1.332/gbp vs $1.335/gbp. 0.650/aud vs 0.651/aud. CNY 7.123/$ vs 7.123/$.

Dollar Index 98.95 vs 99.03 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,074/oz vs US$4,106/oz previous

Gold ETFs 98.5moz vs 98.6moz previous

Platinum US$1,616/oz vs US$1,645/oz previous

Palladium US$1,411/oz vs US$1,443/oz previous

Silver US$48.2/oz vs US$49.1/oz previous

Rhodium US$8,050/oz vs US$7,700/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$10,910/t vs US$10,789/t previous

Aluminium US$2,868/t vs US$2,813/t previous

Nickel US$15,305/t vs US$15,240/t previous

Zinc US$3,034/t vs US$3,045/t previous

Lead US$2,018/t vs US$2,006/t previous

Tin US$35,840/t vs US$35,640/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$66.1/bbl vs US$64.8/bbl previous

Natural Gas €32.2/MWh vs €32.4/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $76.5/lb vs $76.4/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$105.2/t vs US$105.4/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$443.1/t vs US$443.6/t

HCC FOB Australia US$192.3/t vs US$191.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$108.0/t vs US$107.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$48,570/t vs US$48,570/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$71,039/t vs US$71,110/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,684/t vs US$10,544/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$880/t vs US$870/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$643/mtu vs US$638/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$93/lb vs US$93/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$395/t vs US$395/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.6/kg vs US$23.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$273/t vs US$273/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,102/t vs US$1,102/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$350.0/t vs US$350.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

Redwood Materials raises $350m to scale EV-battery recycling and energy storage plans

• Redwood Materials has raised $350m led by Eclipse Ventures and backed by NVIDIA’s venture arm NVentures.
• The investment brings Redwood’s valuation to over $6bn and supports its expansion into grid-scale energy storage built from repurposed EV batteries.
• Redwood aims to deploy 20GWh of energy storage capacity by 2028, using used EV battery packs and focusing on critical-materials independence.
• The move aligns with rising investor interest and industrial demand for circular battery supply chains amid raw-material constraints and growing AI/data-centre power requirements.

Company news

Newmont (NEM US) $89, Mkt cap $98bn – Results show cost control and cash generation as Ahafo North begins production

• Gold major Newmont reports 3Q25 results.
• The Company produced 1.42moz Au over the quarter, and 4.4moz ytd, vs 1.9mozand 6.9moz same periods last year.
• Average realised gold price over the quarter at $3,539/oz.
• AISC reported at $1,566/oz, vs $1,594/oz prior quarter and $1,463/oz same period last year.
• Adj. EBITD reported at $3.3bn, with net income reported at $1.8bn.
• CAPEX over the period at $0.7bn, with FCF reported at $1.6bn.
• $823m returned in capital via dividends and share buybacks.
• Company reports $5.6bn in cash, with net debt at $12m following the repayment of $2bn in notes.
• Company reiterates guidance for 2025 and outlines 2026 towards the lower end of 2025 guidance.
• Lower ounces from Ahafo South expected to be offset by the ramp up from Ahafo North.
• Production expected to be lower from Peñasquito as the mine transitions.
• Lower production is also expected from Yanacocha and Cadia on mine plan transitions.
• Management expects to outline ‘the full benefits of its cost savings initiatives’ in 2026 guidance due next year.

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) 22.5p, Mkt Cap £87m – Quarterly shows C$17m cash balance to advance exploration programmes

• Orosur reports quarterly results to August 31st.
• The Company reported a cash balance of C$3.9m at period end, however as of today’s announcement, this stands at C$17.2m following a C$20m capital raise.
• Orosur is currently progressing the high-grade Pepas deposit to MRE, due 4Q25.
• Orosur sees Pepas as a near-term production opportunity, with the completion of the MRE enabling economic studies going forward.
• Orosur will then seek to deliver an MRE for APTA, with further exploration drilling planned to better define mineralisation.
• At the El Cedro porphyry system, a wide-scale soil sampling programme is 90% complete, which will delineate drill targets.
• In Argentina, Orosur holds the El Panano gold JV, where geophysics programmes have defined drill-ready targets.
• Orosur is set to begin a 3,000m diamond drilling programme at EL Pantano imminently.
• Elsewhere, Orosur has taken the decision to withdraw from its Nigerian lithium projects, as it focuses on its more advanced gold projects.

Conclusion: Orosur is making good progress across its four gold projects. At the flagship, Pepas, the team is aiming to deliver an MRE by December, followed by an economic assessment. Following development studies at Pepas for small scale mining, Orosur will look at wider exploration drilling. Meanwhile, exploration continues at El Cedro, where the Company is aiming to drill next year. Drilling at El Pantano is due to imminently.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Orosur Mining

Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) 0.63p, Mkt cap £13.5m – Exploration Agreement with First Nations group in Athabasca Basin

• Power Metal Resources’s Fermi uranium JV has signed an Exploration Agreement with the Ya'thi Néné Lands and Resources group.
• Ya'thi Néné Lands and Resources (YLNR) represents three First Nations and four municipalities in Saksatchewan and is mandated to promote the well-being of Athabasca residents.
• The Agreement supports permitting activities and exploration programmes in the Athabasca Basin.
• It establishes business terms and employment opportunities, alongside community liaison and engagement facilities.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker for Power Metal Resources

Rome Resource (RMR LN) 0.36p, Mkt Cap £22m – Mineral resource for Kalayi and Mont Agoma projects expected by month-end

• Rome Resources report the company expects to publish the maiden MRE for the Kalayi and Mont Agoma projects in the DRC by the month-end.
• Recent drilling at its Mont Agoma, Bisie North has identified wide, high-value tin zones together with significant copper and zinc mineralisation.
• The results, include:
  • 5.7m @ 0.56% tin from 19m
  • 19m @ 0.38% tin from 72m inc. 2.7m @ 2.11% copper from 67m depth
  • 13m @ 0.24% tin from surface inc. 0.5m @ 28.4% zinc from 130m depth + 11m @ grading 11.05% zinc from 132m depth
  • 23m @ 0.42% tin from 3m inc. 12.2m @ 0.75% tin from 12.3m @ 2.65% from 71m depth.
• The eastern zone at Mount Agoma now looks like a significant drilling target with a potential strike of more than 500 metres.
• There is also good reason to follow mineralisation down-plunge to the southeast.

Conclusion: While we look forward to the new resource, we are more interested in its potential for future expansion and mine development.

The presence of so much tin at and close to surface and in such close proximity to the world’s highest grade tin mine at Bisie (Alphamin) is extremely encouraging and the identification of high grade copper and zinc adds to the project’s future potential.

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 1p, Mkt Cap £20m – Cobre sales volumes recovering while drilling accelerates at Redmoor

• Strategic Minerals reports sales from its Cobre magnetite operation in New Mexico during the three months to 30tht September 2025 were 16,098t generating revenues of ~US$1.08m.
• The company reports a 30th September 2025 cash balance of US$0.83m.
• Sales have recovered following the disruption caused by wildfires in the area which led to a 10-day closure of Cobre’s operations in June.
• The company also takes the opportunity to comment on the progress of its drilling programme at the Redmoor tungsten/tin project in Cornwall.
• A second drilling rig is now in operation to accelerate completion of the company’s planned 9-hole, 5,300m programme to expand and upgrade the current 11.7mt, ‘Inferred’ mineral resource.
• Six holes have been completed to date and they have all “intersected the full thickness of the Redmoor SVS” (Sheeted Vein System) which hosts much of the resource, with results aligning “closely with existing high-grade models, highlighting strong grade continuity across the deposit”.
• Assay results from much of the drilling completed so far are still awaited so far although partial results from the first hole of the current campaign (CRD-033) reported tungsten trioxide grades in excess of 1% from a number of individual structures within the SVS.

Conclusion: Sales from the Cobre operation in New Mexico are recovering after disruption caused by wildfires in New Mexico earlier in the year. Strategic Minerals also confirms progress of its drilling campaign at the Redmoor project in Cornwall where six of the planned 9 holes are now complete with assay results pending for most of the drilling still pending.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Strategic Minerals

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

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London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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