SP Angel . Morning View . Friday 31.10.25

Metals soften after Trump fails to TACO knocking just 10% off the 57% Chinese tariffs for Fentanyl restrictions

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Aldebaran Resources (ALDE CN) – Altar PEA outlines 48 year open pit and block cave operation in Argentina

Bezant Resources (BZT LN) – CORRECTION -Hope & Gorob feasibility study

Fresnillo (FRES LN) – Acquisition of Probe Gold for US$560m cash

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Phase 3 drilling gets underway at Mushima North silver-copper-zinc discovery

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) – Report highlights massive investment connecting Malawi with the ports of Nacala and Beira

Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) – Commerciality of Pioche sepiolite improved through processing testwork

Kore Potash* (KP2 LN) – Quarterly results as Kola progresses early works

Versarien* (VRS LN) – Restructuring update

Copper ($10,850/t) pulls back whilst Chinese metals group calls for production capacity ceiling

• Copper prices pulled back following a sharp rally this week as traders analyse the Trump-Xi meeting and global demand growth.
• Copper has been well-supported by a swathe of supply disruptions this year, most notably Freeport’s Grasberg operation.
• This has seen analysts adjust their forecasts to deficits in 2026 and 2027.
• The dollar has rallied somewhat, pressuring metals.
• However, Bloomberg reports China’s predominant metals body, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, has called for new capacity curbs.
• This suggests restrictions on new copper projects, with smelter overcapacity seeing record low TCRC fees.
• The Association highlights reduced profitability and pricing power on the mass-rollout stemming from China’s involution policy of aggressive competition.

Metals soften after Trump fails to TACO knocking just 10% off the 57% Chinese tariffs for Fentanyl restrictions

• China agreed to delay the implementation of further controls on rare earths but:
  • Local demand for REEs will likely rise for drones, EVs, wind turbines and many other applications
  • Chinese production of REEs might be restricted for environmental and mining licensing reasons
• China knows it has the US / World by the short and curlies on Rare Earths supply and it is aware that the rest of the world is looking to break its monopoly.
• Putin, would surely like China to end REE exports and severely restrict Ukrainian, US, European and other manufacturing of drones.
• The US also knows that China needs US consumers to maintain manufacturing output, jobs and its economy.
• Both sides are working hard to shake off the others advantage with Russia and China working to denigrate the dominance of the US dollar and erode the US influence.

EVs end China's traditional 'Golden Week' fuel surge as fuel demand falls 9% in October

• China's national holiday week, known as 'Golden Week', traditionally signals a surge in fuel consumption.
• Fuel demand fell 9% yoy in October to 12.5m tons (~91.5mbbls), remaining similar to September's consumption, thanks to growing EV adoption in the country. (Sublime China Information)
• NEVs have accounted for almost 50% of new car sales in 2025, and 20% of the 63.5m car trips made during the eight-day holiday period were made in EVs or hybrids.
• China now has 18m charging ports, up 54.5% yoy, making long-distance EV travel increasingly practical.
• The shift signals the decline of oil’s dominance in China’s transport sector after decades of growth.

IG TV Commodity Corner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7en9LCuurE 

ii TV - Macro trends, indicators, small caps.

• Precious metals, gold and copper : https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125894076/5ccc1f796b
• FTSE 100 stocks, small-cap and lithium: https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125892775/a44f96f5a1

Currencies

US$1.1567/eur vs 1.1611/eur previous. Yen 154.33/$ vs 153.83/$. SAr 17.300/$ vs 17.202/$. $1.314/gbp vs $1.319/gbp. 0.654/aud vs         0.658/aud. CNY 7.114/$ vs 7.111/$.

Dollar Index 99.57 vs 99.18 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,022/oz vs US$3,970/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.5moz vs 97.4moz previous

Platinum US$1,608/oz vs US$1,601/oz previous

Palladium US$1,456/oz vs US$1,429/oz previous

Silver US$49.2/oz vs US$47.8/oz previous

Rhodium US$8,200/oz vs US$8,075/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$10,883/t vs US$11,053/t previous

Aluminium US$2,867/t vs US$2,871/t previous

Nickel US$15,205/t vs US$15,290/t previous

Zinc US$3,037/t vs US$3,061/t previous

Lead US$2,014/t vs US$2,030/t previous

Tin US$35,900/t vs US$35,975/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$64.9/bbl vs US$64.4/bbl previous

Natural Gas €31.2/MWh vs €31.6/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $82.0/lb vs $81.2/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$105.9/t vs US$105.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$443.3/t vs US$443.3/t

HCC FOB Australia US$195.5/t vs US$194.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$109.0/t vs US$110.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$48,570/t vs US$48,570/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$76,120/t vs US$72,140/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$11,246/t vs US$11,250/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$950/t vs US$940/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$663/mtu vs US$658/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$93/lb vs US$93/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$395/t vs US$395/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.5/lb vs US$5.5/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.9/kg vs US$23.9/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$273/t vs US$274/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,103/t vs US$1,104/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$350.0/t vs US$350.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

Company news

Aldebaran Resources (ALDE CN) C$3.8, Mkt Cap C$651m – Altar PEA outlines 48 year open pit and block cave operation in Argentina

• Aldebaran reports PEA results from their 80%-owned Altar copper project in Argentina.
• The study outlines a 60ktpd operation, processing tonnage from both open pit and underground.
• Open pit mined tonnage at 223m, with block cave mined tonnage at 768mt.
• Average open pit Cu grade of 0.44% Cu, average block cave grade of 0.5% Cu.
• Company sees a 48 year LOM producing average annual production of 93kt Cu, 27koz Au and 525koz Ag.
• Development CAPEX estimated at $1.6bn, sustaining CAPEX at $3,8bn.
• C1 costs estimated at $2.02/lb Cu, with AISC of $2.6/lb over LOM.
• Post-tax NPV8 of $2bn and IRR of 20.5% using $4.35/lb Cu, $2,500/oz Au, $27/oz Ag.
• At spot prices, the NPV8 increases to $3.3bn and IRR to 28%.
• Company outlines a scenario utilising Rio’s Nuton technology, which sees AISC fall 10.1%, development CAPEX increase 21%, and FCF increase 7.3% over LOM, reducing NPV8 by 4.3%

Conclusion: A robust PEA from Aldebaran outlining a 48 year operation producing 101ktpa CuEq. Argentina has become a primary investment location for majors looking to boost copper output, with BHP teaming up with Lundin Mining to acquire Filo last year. Aldebaran is backed by Rio Tinto who hold an option to acquire a 20% interest in the Altar project. The management team previously sold the Haquira project in Peru to First Quantum for C$650m.

Bezant Resources (BZT LN) 0.11p, Mkt cap £18.5m – CORRECTION -Hope & Gorob feasibility study

• Bezant Resources has kindly pointed out an error in our comment yesterday on its release of highlights of the feasibility study for its Hope & Gorob project in Namibia.
• In our comment, we erroneously reported the capital cost of the project as US$179.2m.  This is, in fact, the project’s EBITDA and the capital cost reported in the company announcement is actually US$12.8m.
• We appreciate the company bringing this inadvertent error to our attention and offer our apologies for any resulting confusion.
• The comment should read, the Study envisages the use of pre-concentration of mine production of ~384ktpa of RoM ore prior to trucking ~180ktpa of plant feed ~190km to the concentrator for processing.
• Based on commodity prices of US$9,300/t for copper, US$2,800/oz for gold, US$31/oz for silver and US$120/t for magnetite and operating costs averaging US$55/t, the company reports that investment of US$12.8m generates an NPV10% of US$46.2m and IRR of 62%.
• In previous announcements (June 2025), Bezant Resources has indicated that, at full production Hope & Gorob is expected to produce around 7,000tpa of copper equivalent in concentrate “from open pit mining for at least 6 years”.
• Executive Chairman, Colin Bird, explained that the report summarises the work of “various companies and sub-consultants”, since 2022, including “a technical report on how the NLZM Processing Plant … will be used in the development of the Hope and Gorob mine”.

Fresnillo (FRES LN) 2,260p, Mkt Cap £16.7bn – Acquisition of Probe Gold for US$560m cash

• Fresnillo has agreed to acquire Probe Gold for C$3.65/share in cash.
• The transaction represents a 24% premium to the 30 day probe VWAP for a fully diluted consideration of $560m.
• Probe Gold holds the Novador Gold Project in Quebec.
• Probe Gold PEA:
  • 13 year LOM with 7mtpa processing plant capacity fed from both underground and open pit resources
  • Total open pit mill feed of 68mt and underground feed of
  • LOM strip ratio of 7.43x
  • Average LOM feed grade of 1.3g/t Au
  • Mill recovery at 96%
  • LOM average annual production at 255kozpa
  • AISC of $1,038/oz
  • Development CAPEX at C$602m and SUSEX at C$818m
  • Post-tax NPV5 at C$910m and IRR of 24% using $1,750/oz.
  • NPV5 rises to C$1.7bn  and IRR at 41% using $2,200/oz Au.
• Probe also holds the earlier-stage Detour Gold Quebec Project, located along lateral extensions of the Detour Lake mine.
• Fresnillo believes there is ample scope to optimise the project and positions them in a tier one mining jurisdiction.
• Fresnillo expects to finance the acquisition with existing cash on hand, reported at US$1.8bn in June.

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.07p, Mkt Cap £3.5m – Phase 3 drilling gets underway at Mushima North silver-copper-zinc discovery

• Tertiary provide an update on the upcoming Phase 3 drilling programme at Target A1 at Mushima North.
• The Company is aiming to complete 1,000m of RC drilling over the silver-copper-zinc prospect.
• Tertiary completed the Phase 2 programme over the summer, which intersected highlights including:
  • 25TMNAC-038: 58m at 49g/t Ag, 0.26% Cu and 0.16% Zn from 8m and 9m at 124g/t Ag, 0.73% Cu and 0.25% Zn from 57m
  • 25TMNAC-025: 73m at 32g/t Ag, 0.16% Cu and 0.24% Zn from 11m
• Management expects drilling to start imminently, with permitting in place and a drilling contractor mobilised to site.
• Drilling is aimed at testing for furthet lateral extensions of known mineralisation, focusing on the high-grade silver and copper mineralisation intersected in hole 25TMNAC-038.
• Drilling will focus on several east-west drill lines spaced 100m apart.
• Holes will be collared 50-100m apart along the east-west lines and drilled to 100m nominal depth.
• Wider spaced drill lines will boost understanding of the continuity of mineralisation.
• Tertiary will also drill down to 150m at certain sections to better understand the potential continuity of mineralisation at depth.

Conclusion: Tertiary is picking up steam in Zambia now, having extended their agreement with Kobold for further drilling at Konkola West yesterday. Today they outline the next 1,000m of RC drilling at Mushima North, which aims to establish continuity of the near-surface and wide polymetallic mineralisation.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) 30.8p, Mkt Cap £208m – Report highlights massive investment connecting Malawi with the ports of Nacala and Beira

(Sovereign currently holds 100% of the Kasiya project. Malawi has 10% free carry right. Rio Tinto holds 18.5% of Sovereign Metals)

• We recently returned from visiting the Kasiya mine site in Malawi where we saw the results of the trial mining and operation of the rutile and graphite separation facilities.
• Sovereign report progress today on the Kasiya rutile and graphite project in Malawi.
• Management highlight the commitment of US$7bn by Japan on development funding with a $5.5bn joint program with the African Development Bank, plus $1.5bn in public-private impact investment.
• The initiative supports the upgrade and refurbishment of the Nacala corridor rail and transport services which run down to the port of Nacala in Mozambique.
• This is a major benefit to the Kasiya project which will look to export some 222,000tpa of rutile concentrate and 233,000tpa of graphite products.
• While the bulk of this material will route through Nacala, the rail line also connects to the port of Beira further south in Mozambique.
• The projects sits at just over 1,050m elevation and the topography means its all downhill to Nacala, a significant benefit for heavy freight transport.
• DFS progress:
• Sovereign have completed the geotechnical work at Kasiya with oversight from the Rio Tinto technical team.
• The Kasiya project is located on an ancient and long-dried lake causing the engineers to want to check the foundation design.
• The team ran >400 individual tests covering mining infrastructure, tailings storage facility and raw water dam.
• Standardisation of foundation design, infrastructure and other construction is possible based on consistent stratigraphy and suitable subsurface conditions.
• Mining fleet:
• The surface and subsurface of sand and clay means there is no need to drill and blast for mining.
• Efficient equipment has been selected for the simple removal of the unconsolidated material with trucking to the simple process plant.
• Rehabilitation:
• Extensive trails on the re-composition of the soil, sand and clay along with the reconditioning of the surface material for farming should create better land for long-term farming and greater than 5x crop yields.
• Finances (quarter to end-September):
  • Cash and cash equivalents A$43m vs A$55m in the previous quarter.
• Expenditure:
  • Exploration & evaluation: A$11.2m
  • Saff costs: A$0.4m
  • Admin: A$0.7m
  • Interest received: A$0.7m
  • Other business development: A$0.4m
• Sovereign report the lapse of 10,977,500 unlisted performance rights that were subject to the DFS milestone.
• Shares and performance rights:
  • 646,938,703 shares in issue,
  • 4,992,500 unlisted performance rights subject to the "Grant of Mining Licence Milestone" expiring on or before 31 March 2026,
  • 6,190,000 unlisted performance rights subject to the "Final Investment Decision Milestone" expiring on or before 30 June 2026.
  • Total: 658,121,203

Conclusion:  Sovereign continues to work towards the development and publication of its DFS report with technical support from Rio Tinto. We expect this report to become available internally within the next few months. The Kasiya project is uniquely important as it the only significant Rutile project in the world that we know of.

Natural rutile, high-grade beneficiated synthetic rutile and chloride slag are preferred feedstocks for the production of titanium metal making the Kasiya project strategically important for the future production of titanium metal as required for many aerospace and defense components.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Sovereign Metals.

The analyst has recently visited the Kasiya mine site and was impressed by the extensive work done to rehabilitate the mine site after mining.

Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) 0.03p, Mkt Cap £2.3m – Commerciality of Pioche sepiolite improved through processing testwork

• Sunrise, who hold the Pioche sepiolite project in Nevada, provide an update.
• The Company has completed Phase 2 development testwork.
• This highlighted Picohe’s sepilote as a suitable gelling clay to replace Amargosa sepiolite and Florida attapulgite.
• Company is set to ramp up bench-scale processing to send customers samples for product certification.
• Management has begun exploring commercial processing routes.

Kore Potash* (KP2 LN) 3p, Mkt Cap £147m – Quarterly results as Kola progresses early works

• Kore, who are developing the Kola Potash Project in the RoC, report quarterly results.
• The Company held $2m in cash as of 30th September.
• $1m was spend on exploration over the quarter, with the bulk related to the Kola Study.
• Over the period, Kore signed key financing Term Sheets with OWI-RAMS GMBH to fund construction of the Kola Project.
• Core samples have been shipped to China to optimise processing methods.
• A sea drilling contractor has been appointed, with jetty construction work due 4Q25.
• Drill testing for the main shaft is set to get underway via UMS.
• Kore is advancing the ESIA for Kola, following design optimisation work completed by EPCM contractor PowerChina.
• Kore has also signed an external third-party consultant in UMS-PROJECTS, a subsidiary of United Mining Services, with contract execution due by year-end.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Kore Potash

Versarien* (VRS LN) 0.011p, Mkt Cap £0.9m – Restructuring update

• Versarien which is working on the manufacturing and application of graphene into cement, shoes, clothing and other advanced materials reports on its restructuring.
• Discussions on asset sales have advanced to a non‐binding heads of terms with a UK quoted public company.
• The potential acquirer is looking at acquiring Versarian's remaining material assets and subsidiaries an intends to buy Versarien’s stake in Total Carbide Limited and Gnanomat SL, along with the patent and trademark portfolio held by Versarien and the graphene production equipment held by Versarien Graphene Limited (in Administration).
• Versarien is being offered £100,000 in cash and ~£100,000 in shares in the potential acquirer.
• The Potential Acquirer will also take on responsibility for the Innovate UK Loans Limited loan of £5.7m and interest.
• Management have entered into a period of exclusivity with the Potential Acquirer until 30 November on the sale of the assets.
• Completion of the transaction is subject to a number of factors including:
  • documented novation by IUKL (which has indicated its agreement to the transaction);
  • formal agreement from HMG Investment Screening Unit relating to triggering the National Security Investment Act 2021
  • consent of both Versarien's and Gnanomat SL's shareholders at general meetings to be convened in due course at a date expected to be in November 2025.
• The board now anticipates that the Company can continue to operate, with the support of its creditors, at least until the proposed transaction is completed, expected by  end-November.
• If the transaction completes Versarien should become a AIM Rule 15 cash shell and look for reverse takeover opportunities.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Versarien

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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