SP Angel . Morning View . Thursday 09.10.25

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) BUY – TP under review – Updated FY25 production and earnings guidance

Glencore (GLEN LN) – Three-year lifeline of Government support for Queensland copper smelter and refinery

Metals One (MET1 LN) – Investing in Peruvian precious metals exploration

Teck Resources (TECK CN) – Reduction in 2025 copper production guidance

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Targeting an initial MRE at Mushima North A1 target, Zambia, within the next 12 months

Copper (US$10,871/t) continues to rise as deficit outlook raises copper futures

• Teck (QB2) copper output downgrade adds to production losses at Grasberg (mud rush), Kamoa (seismic event), and Codelco (El Teniente).
• China’s MIIT cut of non-ferrous metal supply growth to 1.5% from 5% has reduced growth outlook for base metals as China commands greater control of producing assets.
• Traders appear to be focussing on the potential for shortages on the SHFE with so much physical copper still in the US
• China is preparing to stimulate greater domestic demand through vouchers, discount programs and subsidies
• China allocated a third tranche of RMB69bn in July 2025 from ultra-long special treasury bond proceeds to boost its consumer goods trade-in program. 
• The program offers trade-in subsidies and is focussed on replacing older vehicles with EVs and more efficient vehicles.  
• Low LME stock levels are down to 139,200t.

Gold (4,039/oz) spikes to $4,063/oz in Asian trading before profit taking takes it down $60

• Gold saw volatile trade through Asian trading hours last night and this morning.
• Rather unusually, prices appear to be rebuilding some lost strength in London trade since collapsing to $4,003/oz.
• News of a peace deal between Israel and Hamas does not appear to have changed the direction of travel for gold.
• China is reported to be ditching the US dollar while taking greater control of Rare Earth exports to give it greater leverage over Trade negotiations.

Silver (US$49.1/oz) prices reach new high

• Silver prices followed gold higher in very similar trade this morning.
• Reports suggest a fundamental supply shortfall as rising production of solar panels and EV powertrains continues to raise demand.
• Industrial consumption has risen to >700mozs and is reported to now account for nearly 60% of total demand.
• Silver’s recent inclusion in a draft list of Critical Minerals in the US sparked new interest in its industrial usage.
• The LBMA reports 24,581t of silver in London vaults with global demand rising to 1.2bnozs last year.
• Given the strong rise in industrial use combined with we see silver prices rising to >$58/oz as it plays catch up with gold.

Rare Earths – New REE export controls instigated for ‘national security’ ahead of Trump meeting with Xi

• China is further tightening regulations on the export of magnets containing REEs by foreign companies.
• The rules mirror US foreign direct product regulations on semiconductors to China and via other countries.
• The move simply tighten existing regulations at a critical point in Tariff negotiations.
• We suspect if Trump gets his Nobel Peace prize the negotiations might progress a little easier

Commodity Corner: (Tuesday 7/10/25) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7en9LCuurE 

Economics

US – Trump must be well on the way to achieve his ambition for a Nobel Peace Prize

Israel – Israel and Hamas signed a deal to release remaining hostages as part of the Trump’s plant to end the two year war.

• Hostage prisoner exchange to begin at noon today local time
• Netanyahu is holding a cabinet meeting today to approve the deal.
• Hamas has confirmed in an official statement that the agreement brings to an end the war.
• Remaining 48 hostages (20 of whom are believed to be alive) are expected to be released ~72h after the Israeli government approves the deal.
• Israel to release almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners in return and increase aid in held territories.
• The staged peace deal process is complicated by the difficulty of finding the bodies of dead hostages which are reported to have been buried by deceased fighters.
• The agreement requires IDF forces to withdraw troops back from front lines in Gaza and to allow the delivery of humanitarian and includes a prisoner exchange.
• A lasting peace should be good for economic growth through the region if aid is mobilised for reconstruction and new development.

The Norwegian Nobel committee to announce the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize for this year tomorrow.

Germany – Exports unexpectedly dropped for a second month as the value of shipments to the US plunged to the lowest level in almost four years.

• Exports (%mom, Aug/Jul/Est): -0.5/-0.2 (revised from -0.6)/0.2
• Imports (%mom, Aug/Jul/Est): -1.3/-0.7 (revised from -0.1)/-0.5

Currencies

US$1.1611/eur vs 1.1625/eur previous. Yen 153.09/$ vs 152.43/$. SAr 17.200/$ vs 17.190/$. $1.335/gbp vs $1.341/gbp. 0.658/aud vs 0.657/aud. CNY 7.128/$ vs 7.121/$.

Dollar Index 99.01 vs 98.89 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,030/oz vs US$4,036/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.4moz vs 97.4moz previous

Platinum US$1,660/oz vs US$1,650/oz previous

Palladium US$1,458/oz vs US$1,388/oz previous

Silver US$49.1/oz vs US$48.8/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,150/oz vs US$7,075/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$10,871/t vs US$10,752/t previous

Aluminium US$2,780/t vs US$2,749/t previous

Nickel US$15,500/t vs US$15,370/t previous

Zinc US$3,029/t vs US$3,028/t previous

Lead US$2,026/t vs US$2,005/t previous

Tin US$36,705/t vs US$36,475/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$66.4/bbl vs US$66.1/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices were stable as the EIA estimated a w/w US inventory build of 3.7mb to crude, offset by draws of 1.6mb to gasoline and 2.0mb to distillate stocks, as refinery utilisation rose 1% to 92.4% on domestic output of 13.6mb/d.
• European energy prices edged lower as EU natural gas storage levels rose 0.5% w/w to 82.9% full (vs 90.7% 5-Yr average) with aggregate inventory at 946TWh and France's nuclear generation fell 7% w/w to 70% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.
• Ørsted plans to axe 25% of the current 8,000 workforce by the end of 2027 due to rightsizing of the Company following the updated business plan and strategic priorities, with ~500 redundancies sadly announced today for 4Q25.

Natural Gas €32.3/MWh vs €32.9/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $77.7/lb vs $79.7/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$104.9/t vs US$104.3/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$448.5/t vs US$449.1/t

HCC FOB Australia US$190.0/t vs US$190.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$105.5/t vs US$106.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$40,420/t vs US$38,960/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$78,845/t vs US$78,917/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,003/t vs US$10,012/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$830/t vs US$830/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$593/mtu vs US$593/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$93/lb vs US$93/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.6/kg vs US$23.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$270/t vs US$270/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,979/t vs US$2,979/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,101/t vs US$1,102/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

Carmakers urge EU to ease 2035 petrol engine ban

• European carmakers are calling on the EU to relax its 2035 ban on new petrol and diesel car sales.
• Industry groups, including the European Carmakers’ Association (ACEA), claim the current policy is “rigid and one-dimensional” and risks job losses and competitiveness.
• The EU’s Green Deal requires all new cars sold after 2035 to have zero CO2 emissions, effectively banning internal-combustion engines.
• Opponents of the ban are pushing for synthetic e-fuels, hybrids and other low-carbon technologies recognised as part of the transition.
• The ACEA says 65% of charging infrastructure needed for EV adoption is still missing, especially in central and eastern Europe.
• Policymakers will review the regulation in 2026, but carmakers want a revision of the regulations sooner.

Company news

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) 209p, Mkt Cap £237m – Updated FY25 production and earnings guidance

BUY – TP under review

• The Company released an updated production and earnings guidance for FY25.
• New guidance includes production from recently commissioned Demirli Copper Mine.
• FY25 production guidance:
  • 8.1-9.0kt copper (from 6.5-6.8kt)
    • 4.6-4.9kt Gedabek
    • 3.5-4.1kt Demirli
  • 25.0-28.0koz gold (from 28.0-33.0koz)
    • All Gedabek
  • FY25 revenue $125-140m (from $110-125m)
  • FY 25 EBITDA $40-50m (from $45-55m)
• Earnings estimates use $3,500/oz and $10,000/t gold and copper prices for 4Q25.
• Gedabek production update led by a bottleneck in the flotation filter press and thickener part of the flotation plant.
• Higher grade Gilar ore chokes the thickener as the filter press is unable to manage the quantity of concentrate produced.
• The team is expanding the capacity with additional specialised flotation cells, a thickener and two filet presses.
• Expansion is expected to be completed Q126.
• As a result, higher grade material was blended with lower grade feed and higher grade copper ore stockpiled ahead of flotation plant expansion
• Stockpiles are reported at 71kt grading 3.8% Cu and 2g/t Au.
• Demirli plant that was commissioned in July is currently ramping up operations.
• Produced concentrate is currently being stockpiled on site with necessary permits expected to be secured by the end of October and sales to commence in November.

Conclusion: Updated guidance includes maiden production from Demirli seeing an increase in guided copper output while lower contribution from Gilar brought projections for gold lower. Higher grade Gilar ore is expected to increasingly contribute in 2026 after the circuit is expanded in 1Q26. Stronger commodity prices contributed to an upgrade to guided FY25 turnover while lower than anticipated feed grades from higher margin Gilar operation weighed on forecast EBITDA margins.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Anglo Asian Mining

Glencore (GLEN LN) 355p, Mkt Cap £42.1bn – Three-year lifeline of Government support for Queensland copper smelter and refinery

• Yesterday, Glencore announced that it had “reached a Heads of Agreement (the Agreement) with the Australian and Queensland Governments on a support package of up to A$600 million to continue operating the Mount Isa copper smelter and Townsville copper refinery for the next three years”.
• The company’s statement says that the operations are “strategic national assets that underpin the copper supply chain across Queensland and the country’s critical minerals strategy … [and that they support] … 600 workers and their families in Mount Isa and Townsville”.
• COO of Glencore Metals Australia, Troy Wilson, said that the “agreement provides a short-term lifeline for the copper smelter and refinery and comes after Glencore had already stepped up to absorb significant financial losses to maintain operations and jobs while working on a solution with government”.
• He thanked the Australian and Queensland Governments for their support and also thanked the “workforce, whose commitment and resilience over the past eight months has been outstanding”.
• Describing copper as “a critical metal for the future … [Mr. Wilson said that] … Competition in the global copper smelting market is fierce and it’s not a level playing field with various countries seeking to secure substantial market positions”.

Metals One (MET1 LN) 3.62p, Mkt Cap £30m – Investing in Peruvian precious metals exploration

• Metals One reports an investment of C$0.5m in TSXV-listed Fidelity Minerals “as part of Fidelity’s C$1,500,000 private placement” of shares priced at C$0.10/share.
• Its investment leaves Metals One “owning an initial 9.93% of Fidelity with the second tranche for an additional 1,500,000 Units remaining subject to TSX-V approval”.
• “Attaching to each Unit is one-half transferable common share purchase warrant, with each full warrant exercisable at a price of CA$0.20 per share until 7 October 2027”.
• Today’s announcement also explains that “Metals One investee company Lions Bay Capital (Metals One: 19.1%1) also participated in the Placement and will own 36.66% of Fidelity on completion of the second tranche”.
• Fidelity Minerals’ principal project is the Las Huaquillas Project, which is described as “an advanced-stage gold-copper-silver project located in northern Peru, approximately 14 km south of the Ecuador border”.
• The Las Huaquillas Project hosts an historic, non NI43-101 compliant, resource of ~0.45moz of gold and 5.3m oz of silver within ~6.6mt at an average grade of 2.12g/t gold and 25.2g/t silver.
• A 2021 “NI 43-101 Technical Report … concludes that Las Huaquillas hosts a large-scale hydrothermal system with the potential to contain both epithermal gold-silver and porphyry copper-gold mineralisation” including:
  • An epithermal gold/silver system at Los Socavones which “remains open both down-dip and along strike, with additional untested porphyry and epithermal targets identified nearby”; as well as
  • Porphyries at Cementerio and San Antonio
• The project benefits from “Extensive historical work, including soil geochemistry, geophysics, and more than 5.7 km of diamond drilling across 26 holes, as well as 1.2 km of underground development on three levels”.
• Commenting on Metals One’s investment, Managing Director, Dan Maling, said that “The opportunity for Fidelity - and therefore Metals One - lies in rapidly advancing the Las Huaquillas Project through a formal resource definition of gold, silver and copper in northern Peru, and progressing it towards production”.

Conclusion: Investment in Fidelity Minerals exposes Metals One to a Peruvian precious metals project with an historic exploration history including a non-compliant MRE. Future exploration aims to formalise the resource and investigate the wider geological opportunity.

Teck Resources (TECKb CN) C$60, Mkt Cap C$29bn – Reduction in 2025 copper production guidance

• Teck Resources, which is merging with Anglo American to establish a 1.3mtpa copper producer, announced earlier this week that it was reducing its current copper production guidance
• Following an operational review, overall copper production guidance for 2025has been reduced from a range of 470-525kt to between 415-465kt.
• The major impact comes at the Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile where revised tailings handling procedures contributed to a reduction in the previous guidance of 210-230kt to the range 170-190kt.
• A smaller reduction in copper output is anticipated for Highland Valley from 135-150kt to 120-130kt with production guidance for Antamina and Andacollo maintained within the previously issued guidance ranges of 80-90kt and 45-55kt respectively.
• As we reported yesterday, Anglo American, which conducted significant due diligence on Teck ahead of the merger agreement announced on 9 September 2025“ remains supportive of Teck’s plans and confirms that “the overall strategic rationale for the merger and all synergy values and their timing, as outlined in the 9 September merger announcement, remain unchanged”.
• Teck Resources’ statement confirmed that at Quebrada Blanca:
  • “design recovery rates of 86– 92% remain achievable, compared to the approximately 82–85% currently assumed in the guidance period”; and that
  • “opportunities to incorporate higher-grade material in the guidance period through optimization of the revised mining sequence, aligned with the new throughput profile”;
  • Teck expects grades to “increase in years following 2028”; and that
  • “under the revised plan, the 5–10% of throughput optimization previously targeted is no longer fully achieved within the guidance period. However, we remain confident in delivering this improvement over time”.
• Teck also confirms that it intends “to review a range of measures to optimize operating costs in light of the revised production profile”.

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.07p, Mkt Cap £3m – Targeting an initial MRE at Mushima North A1 target, Zambia, within the next 12 months

• Following recent assay results from its Phase 2 drilling campaign, Tertiary Minerals has provided a progress report on its exploration of the A1 target ats its Mushima North project in Zambia.
• The company confirms that the known mineralisation remains “open to the north/northwest, south/southwest and at depth” and highlights recent results including:
  • A 58m wide interval averaging 49g/t silver, 0.26% copper and 0.16% zinc from a depth of 8m downhole in drillhole 25TMNAC-038 including 20m at an average grade of 86g/t silver, 0.44% copper and 0.24% zinc from 46m downhole; and
  • An intersection of 73m at an average grade of 32g/t silver, 0.16% copper and 0.24% zinc from a depth of 11m downhole in drillhole 25TMNAC-025.
• The company also confirms that it has identified “Multiple targets defined based on regional geochemical and geophysical targets still to be drill tested located within 12km of Target A1”.
• Managing Director, Richard Belcher, explained that the A1 Target at Mushima North “now has a surface footprint of approximately 450m by 400m and remains open to the north/northwest, south/southeast and at depth”.
• He said that Tertiary Minerals is “undertaking mineralogical studies to better understand the mineralisation style as a prelude to initial metallurgical testing … [and expressed the aspiration] … to fast-track the project along the valuation pipeline towards a maiden mineral resource estimation in the next 12 months”.
• Outlining the geological setting today’s announcement explains that the “project lies within a broad region considered prospective for IOCG-style … [iron-oxide-copper-gold] … of mineralisation. However, sedimentary-hosted copper occurrences and also polymetallic massive sulphide, carbonate-hosted/replacement occurrences have also been identified regionally”.

Conclusion: Mineralisation at Mushima North’s A1 target remains open both laterally and at depth.  Mineralogical studies are underway in preparation for metallurgical testing and the company is looking towards delivery of an initial mineral resource estimate within the next year.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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