SP Angel . Morning View . Thursday 16.10.25

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Allied Gold (AAUC CN) – Steady gold production as Kurmuk first pour reiterated for mid-2026.

AMG Critical Materials (AMG NA) - Signed an MOU with Beijing Easpring Materials Technology for an offtake of battery grade LHM.

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) BUY – TP under review – 3Q25 delivers record copper production on recently commissioned Demirli and Gilar

Capital Limited (CAPD LN)– Strong Q3 prompts a second increase in full year revenue guidance

Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) – Publication of updated PEA for South Crofty

Firefly Metals (FFM AU) – Ming mineralisation extended 650m

Largo (LGO US) – US$23.4m raise

Orezone Gold (ORE CN) – Production hit by rainfall whilst hard rock mill expansion on track

Silvercorp Metals (SVM US) – Steady silver production from China as Ecuador project ramps up

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Investor webcast next week

URU Metals* (URU LN) – Ground geophysics at Zeb nickel project, South Africa

Copper ($10,560/t) weakens as Chinese end-users struggle with weaker margins

• Copper has failed to break through its post-Grasberg disruption rally.
• The metal hit highs of $10.900/t after analysts reduced their 2026/2027 supply forecasts on the back of Grasberg mine disruption, and physical markets tightened.
• Copper has fallen 3% over the past week, however, as focus shifts back to potential demand concerns.
• Bloomberg reports that Chinese smelters are looking to ramp up exports into the stronger LME price environment, whilst domestic prices weaken somewhat.
• Chinese manufacturers remain sensitive to higher prices, with the jump in copper prices weighing on margins and feeding through to demand.
• Bloomberg reports electric wire producers, a major copper demand driver, has fallen this month.
• Additionally, the Yangshan copper premium has fallen 20% since the price spike, supporting the argument that Chinese buyers are struggling with higher prices.

Conclusion: We remain bullish on copper and see the Grasberg disaster as a major catalyst for higher prices going forward. Short term weakness in China’s manufacturing sector may present a long-term buying opportunity in copper equities as the price flatlines despite a fundamental shift in the supply base going forward.

• Anglo Asian Mining*: see comment below, ramping up Demirli mine
• Lundin Mining: developing Vicuna district alongside BHP
• Amerigo Resources: reprocessing tailings at Codelco’s El Teniente mine, high-yield story
• First Quantum: Reinforced balance sheet following deleveraging, upside to Cobre Panama deal
• Marimaca Copper: MOD project low-capital intensity heap leach, upside to Pampa Medina sulphide exploration programme
• GreenX Metals Exploring for copper in Germany, seeking Kupferschiefer-style copper mineralisation
• Oscillate Metals: Early-stage exploration in Namibia and Botswana
• Tertiary Minerals*: Large land package in Zambia, working with KoBold and First Quantum in JV
• Phoenix Copper*: Small-scale copper project in Idaho progressing financing

US – Shutdown extended into its third week on Wednesday as lawmakers failed to agree funding.

• Republicans and Democrats continue to debate spending priorities and healthcare provisions.
• The Senate held nine failed meetings to end the shutdown so far.

Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the US may extend a pause on import duties on Chinese goods for more than 90d if China lifts restrictions on REE exports.

• The US and China agreed a series of 90d pauses in implementation of higher import tariffs with the next deadline in November.
• President Trump speaking just hours after Bessent delivered a little more hostile message saying that two nations (US and China) are locked in a trade war.
• “If we didn’t have tariffs, we would be exposed as being a nothing,” Trump said.

IG TV Commodity Corner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7en9LCuurE 

ii TV - Macro trends, indicators, small caps.

• Precious metals, gold and copper : https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125894076/5ccc1f796b
• FTSE 100 stocks, small-cap and lithium: https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125892775/a44f96f5a1

Economics

France – Premier Sebastien Lecarnu expected to survive two non-confidence votes after suspending a contentious pension law.

• Suspending the pension plan that gradually raises the minimum retirement age to 64 from 62 is estimated to cost €400m next year and €1.8bn in 2027.
• French sovereign risk premium to German debt dropped on some respite from a political crisis.
• The spread is hovering around 77bp, down from 86bp in early October.

UK – The economy reported a slight increase in GDP in August helped by a rebound in manufacturing.

• GDP climbed 0.1%mom after falling 0.1% in July.
• The print was in line with market estimates.
• Factory production climbed more than expected 0.7%mom while services were flat for a second straight month while construction contracted.
• The economy grew 0.3% in the three months through August.

Currencies

US$1.1651/eur vs 1.1644/eur previous. Yen 151.01/$ vs 151.13/$. SAr 17.351/$ vs 17.282/$. $1.342/gbp vs $1.336/gbp. 0.650/aud vs         0.652/aud. CNY 7.125/$ vs 7.125/$.

Dollar Index 98.67 vs 98.78 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,230/oz vs US$4,206/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.8moz vs 97.6moz previous

Platinum US$1,659/oz vs US$1,657/oz previous

Palladium US$1,541/oz vs US$1,545/oz previous

Silver US$52.8/oz vs US$52.7/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,625/oz vs US$7,325/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$10,609/t vs US$10,698/t previous

Aluminium US$2,761/t vs US$2,753/t previous

Nickel US$15,225/t vs US$15,200/t previous

Zinc US$2,955/t vs US$2,937/t previous

Lead US$1,982/t vs US$1,991/t previous

Tin US$35,540/t vs US$35,545/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$62.5/bbl vs US$62.2/bbl previous

• European energy prices edged higher on reports of heightened Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian gas infrastructure, as EU natural gas storage levels rose 0.1% w/w to 83.0% full (vs 91.4% 5-Yr average), with aggregate inventory at 948TWh and Germany storage levels displaying a ~40TWh (-15%) variance compared to this decade’s average.

Natural Gas €32.2/MWh vs €31.6/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $79.6/lb vs $79.7/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$105.5/t vs US$105.3/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$446.6/t vs US$447.3/t

HCC FOB Australia US$190.5/t vs US$191.3/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$106.3/t vs US$106.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$42,725/t vs US$42,725/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$73,336/t vs US$74,386/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,036/t vs US$9,853/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$830/t vs US$825/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$623/mtu vs US$613/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$93/lb vs US$93/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$395/t vs US$395/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.6/kg vs US$23.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$273/t vs US$273/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,102/t vs US$1,102/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

Company news

Allied Gold (AAUC CN) C$29, Mkt Cap C$3.3bn – Steady gold production as Kurmuk first pour reiterated for mid-2026.

• African gold producer Allied report quarterly production.
• Company produced 87koz over the quarter vs 91koz previous quarter
  • Sadiola 42.2koz (49.3koz prior)
  • Bonikro 22koz (25.8koz prior)
  • Agbaou 22.9koz (16koz prior)
• Management guides for highest quarterly production next quarter, on higher expected grades.
• Annual production on track with guidance at 375-400koz.
• AISC for the quarter guided at $2,100/oz, down 10%qoq, despite higher royalties.
• Kurmuk project in Ethiopia tracking well, with first gold due mid-2026, with Allied planning to boost processing capacity to 6.4mtpa based on ore inventory considerations.
• Kurmuk:
  • Reserves: 60mt at 1.4g/t Au for 2.7moz
  • CAPEX $500m, LOM production 240koz at <$950/oz

AMG Critical Materials (AMG NA, Mkt cap €1.0bn) signed an MOU with Beijing Easpring Materials Technology for an offtake of battery grade LHM.

• Easrping is a Shenzhen listed Chinese producer of cathode active material (CAML) and is currently building a CAM production facility Kotka, Finland.
• 20ktpa BG LHM will potentially be supplied by recently commissioned production facility in Bitterfeld-Wolfen, Germany.

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) 203p, Mkt Cap £220m – 3Q25 delivers record copper production on recently commissioned Demirli and Gilar

BUY – TP under review

• The Company reported 3Q25 production for its gold/copper operations in Azerbaijan.
• Copper production hit record 2.3kt (3Q24: -) including:
  • 1.6kt at Gedabek (3Q24: -);
  • 0.7kt Demirli, maiden quarterly production (3Q24: -).
• Gold production 6.8koz (3Q24: 3.0koz).
• Silver production 42koz (3Q24: 3koz).
• Gedabek production benefited from first full quarter contribution from recently commissioned Gilar Gold/Copper underground mine.
• Gedabek AGL circuit produced 4.7koz (3Q24: 0.6koz) from 157kt treated at 1.52g/t (3Q24: 18kt at 1.93g/t).
• Gedabek FLO circuit produced 1.6kt copper and 1.0koz gold (3Q24: nill) with processed grades over 1.1%, compared to ~0.5% in 1H25, helped by Gilar.
• Gilar mining operations ramped up well delivering 239kt (~80ktpm run rate) of high grade ore 1.65g/t and 2.34% during the quarter.
• As highlighted previously, higher grade material has been stockpiled to be processed in early 2026 following completion of plant upgrades (a thickener and two filter presses installation underway).
• High grade stockpiles currently are ~71kt at 2.0g/t and 3.8%.
• Demirli Copper Mine launched 3Q25 delivered 293kt at 0.45% to the processing plant producing 0.7kt copper in concentrate.
• Bullion sales (post PSA) 5.2koz at $3,430/oz (3Q24: 3.2koz at $2,497/oz).
• Copper/gold concentrate sales (post PSA) generated $15.5m (3Q24: -).
• Demirli copper concentrate shipments are awaiting necessary permits with 0.7kt in copper stockpiled awaiting shipment (exp November).
• Net debt stood at $14.2m (1H25: $13.0m ex leases) including $10.4m in cash.
• A slight increase in net debt reflects capital investments at Demirli and $4.3m in unsold inventory at the newly commissioned copper operation (1H25: -).
• FY25 guidance reiterated at
  • 8.1-9.0kt copper (from 6.5-6.8kt)
    • 4.6-4.9kt Gedabek
    • 3.5-4.1kt Demirli
  • 25.0-28.0koz gold (from 28.0-33.0koz)
    • All Gedabek

Conclusion: Full quarter production at Gilar and commissioning of Demirli see copper production hit record 2.3kt. Expect strong momentum to continue as Demirli ramps up with higher grade Gilar ore treated at Gedabek. FY25 guidance reiterated at 8.1-9.0kt copper (9M25: 3.5kt) and 25.0-28.0koz gold (9M25: 18.9koz).

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Anglo Asian Mining

Capital Limited (CAPD LN) 120p, Mkt Cap £231m – Strong Q3 prompts a second increase in full year revenue guidance

• Capital Limited reports its highest ever quarterly revenue during the three months to 30th September at US$93.9m which is over 7% higher than the US$7.4m achieved in the previous quarter to 30th June and slightly above the US$93.7m achieved in the equivalent third quarter, 2024.
• Drilling and associated activities continue to dominate revenue generation at around 70% (US$65.1m) of the total, with a further US$21.0m (22%) contribution from the operations of MSALABS “achieving its highest-ever quarterly revenues and doubling quarterly revenue compared with Q3 2024”.
• Aided by the ramp-up at Reko Diq, Capital’s mining revenue grew by over 11% to US$7.8m during the quarter (Q2 2025 – US$7.0m).
• Today’s announcement explains that the “mining contract at Reko Diq is being expanded to include additional development equipment and 100 new personnel. It is expected to lift run-rate contract revenue by approximately $10 million once fully operational in the first half of 2026. Capex purchases of c. $5 million are underway … [although the company expects] … to remain within our previously stated capex guidance range of $45 - 55 million”.
• Executive Chair, Richard Boyton confirmed that “For the second time this year, we are increasing 2025 revenue guidance to USD $335 - $350 million, which includes increased MSALABS revenue guidance of $65 - 75 million”.

Conclusion: Capital Limited is increasing its full year 2025 revenue guidance for the second time this year following record Q3 delivery and strong performances across both its mining and laboratory divisions.

Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) 7.95p, Mkt cap £105m – Publication of updated PEA for South Crofty

Flash Note: 

• Cornish Metals, confirms that it has now filed its NI43-101 compliant technical report on an updated Prelimnary Economic Assessment (PEA) for its South Crofty tin mine in Cornwall with SEDAR+.
• The report is available “under Cornish Metals' profile on Sedar+ (www.sedarplus.com) and is also available at www.cornishmetals.com”.
• The company has previously issued an announcement summarising the latest plans to resume tin production explaining that, based on current mineral resources, an initial 14-year mine life at South Crofty produces ~49kt of tin supplying approximately 1.6% of global production between years 2-6 and with meaningful opportunities to extend and/or expand life production rates and mine-life.
• Tin production is derived from the mining of 500ktpa of ore, which after an ore pre-concentration stage provides feed of 250ktpa of ore at a grade of 1.89% tin to the processing plant.
• Operating costs of US$14,460/t LOM, secure a position in the lowest cost quartile of global tin production with costs for years 2-6 estimated to be even lower at an average US$13,420/t.
• Pre-production capital costs have increased to £198m compared to the previous study which estimated £142m with sustaining capital of £43m at a similar level to the £43.5m estimated in 2024.
• As well as price escalation and inflationary pressures, the higher initial capital cost estimate reflects improvements in the scope of the project, including enhancements to the plant, which may facilitate future expansion, and timing differences to the originally envisaged dewatering and shaft refurbishment programmes some of whose costs are now captured in the preproduction capital estimate.
• Based on a revised tin price estimate of US$33,900/t and an exchange rate of US$1.30/£ (previously US$31,000/t and US$1.25/£), the company estimates an after-tax NPV6% of £180m, an IRR of 20% and payback within 3.3 years.
• In addition to the key operational features and outcomes of the plan, today’s announcement highlights a strengthened senior management team including a newly appointed “General Manager and Project Director … [aligning] … the project with global best practice across current works, project delivery and eventual operations” as well as the appointment of leading consultants who “have independently verified all project parameters-from technical design to real time cost estimation-ensuring rigour, transparency, and execution confidence”.
• A document of almost 400 pages of detailed technical and economic information contains a wealth of insights into the new plan for a resumption of tin mining at South Crofty and provides an opportunity for investors and other interested parties to scrutinise Cornish Metal’s underlying strategy and its implementation plan and timetable.
• As previously described, Cornish Metals has also discussed the broader resource expansion and mine life extension possibilities offered by additional, near mine mineralisation and “within the South Crofty mining permission area and within Cornish Metals' extensive mineral rights holdings in Cornwall”.
• Despite intermittent tin production in the South Crofty area since at least the 1590s, significant opportunities remain for resource and reserve replenishment including at depth and along strike of mineralised structures in the immediate mine area; and south of the mine in the Carn Brea area where exploration drilling has shown previously unknown zones of mineralisation between the ‘Great Flat Lode’ and the underlying ‘Wide Formation’.
• Excluding these longer-term opportunities, the current mineral resources support an initial 14-year mine life at South Crofty producing ~49kt of tin supplying approximately 1.6% of global production between years 2-6 and with meaningful opportunities to extend and/or expand life production rates and mine-life.
• Tin production is derived from the mining of 500ktpa of ore, which after an ore pre-concentration stage provides feed of 250ktpa of ore at a grade of 1.89% tin to the processing plant.

Conclusion: Cornish Metals’ detailed plan for future tin mining at South Crofty is now available describing an initial 14 year mine life delivering an economically robust project in the lowest quartile of global production costs with potential opportunities to extend mine life and/or increase output. In our view, the report warrants detailed study from all interested parties.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Cornish Metals

Firefly Metals (FFM AU) A$1.7, Mkt Cap A$1.15bn – Ming mineralisation extended 650m

• Firefly, who are drilling out the Ming Mine in Newfoundland, report assay results.
• The Company’s recent drilling round has targeted extensions of the known mineralisation to expand the October 2024 MRE.
• Company reports highlights:
  • MUG25-202: 49m at 6.1% CuEq (39m true width) inc. 14.3m at 13.7% CuEq.
• Management note that the extension hole has extended the known mineralisation over 650m beyond the 2024 MRE, and confirm the downhole electromagnetic geophysical anomaly.
• Other intersections reported today include:
  • MUG25-208: 7m at 3.9% CuEq
  • MUG25-190: 14m at 3.7% CuEq
• Mineralisation is also reported to have confirmed the presence of a broad copper-rich Footwall Zone, below the upper VMS zone.
• Company has eight diamond drill rigs on site aiming to upgrade the current MRE.
• A$145m in cash and liquid investments reported on the balance sheet, expected to support funding through to feasibility study.
• Ming MRE:
  • MI&I: 24.4mt at 1.9% CuEq for 460kt, Inferred:34.5mt at 2% CuEq for 690kt

Largo (LGO US) US$1.44, Mkt Cap US$113m – US$23.4m raise

• The Company is raising US$23.4m to cover working capital needs at the primary vanadium operation in Brazil.
• The issue is being done at US$1.22 per share and includes one for one warrant ($1.22 exercise price, 5y term, exercisable immediately).
• The price implies a >50% discount to the pre raise announcement.
• $6m of the total is coming from Arias Resource Capital Fund III, the largest shareholder in the Company.
• Proceeds to be used to strengthen working capital, make overdue payments to Brazilian lenders, mining contractor, and key suppliers at the Maracás Menchen Mine, affected by liquidity constraints.

Orezone Gold (ORE CN) C$1.65, Mkt Cap C$990m – Production hit by rainfall whilst hard rock mill expansion on track

• Orezone, who operate the Bomboré gold mine in Burkina Faso, report production data for the quarter.
• Gold production at 23.4koz for the quarter, 20.koz sold at $3,375/oz for revenue of $68.7m.
• Ore processed at 1.52mt at 0.55g/t Au with 87% recoveries (vs 1.56mt at 0.62g/t Au prior quarter).
• Production lower than plan on back of unexpected rainfall events, reducing access to mining.
• Company expects stronger 4Q25, with guidance maintained at 115-130koz.
• Cash reported at $85.3m, bullion at 4942oz, senior debt of $80m, with $20m in drawdowns over the quarter and $12m undrawn.
• Hard rock mill commissioning underway, first gold due for 4Q25.
• Hard rock mill expected to support production increase to 17-185koz in 2026.

Silvercorp Metals (SVM US) $7.2, Mkt Cap $1.6bn – Steady silver production from China as Ecuador project ramps up

• Silvercorp, who have assets in China, Ecuador and Bolivia, report quarterly results.
• Revenue: $83m, up 23%yoy.
• Silver production at 1.7moz, AgEq up 5%yoy to 1.75moz.
• Ying Mining District processed 265kt and GC processed 76kt at 207g/t and 64g/t Ag respectively.
• Company conducting a 77,507m drilling programme at Ying mining district.
• Kuanping mine construction ongoing, with 831m of ramp development completed.
• El Domo construction ongoing, with 1.29m cubic metres of material removed, up 249%qoq.
• El Domo TSF surface clearing began in September.
• El Domo Project:
  • 10 year LOM producing 11ktpa Cu, 24koz Au, 12ktpa Zn
  • CAPEX $241m, funded via cashflows and $175m Wheaton stream.
  • AISC of US$1.26/lb CuEq
  • Post Tax NPV8 of $259m using $1,700/oz Au, $3.5/lb Cu for 32% IRR.
• Silvercorp expects to deliver PEA for Condor Project next quarter.
• Condor Underground Project
  • 340koz at 3.32g/t Au Indicated.
  • 1.38moz at 3.55g/t Au inferred

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 0.93p, Mkt Cap £23m – Investor webcast next week

• Strategic Minerals, which recently released assay results from the first hole of its new drilling campaign at the Redmoor project in Cornwall will be hosting an Investor Webcast and delivering an updated presentation “on Tuesday, 21 October 2025 at 11 a.m. BST”.
• The webcast will available “via: https://www.investormeetcompany.com/strategic-minerals-plc/register-investor” and interested parties are invited to pre-register.
• The company confirms that “No material new financial or other information will be provided” but the company is inviting questions in advance we expect that attendees will be able to gain insights into the Company’s exploration strategy and plans to progress the project.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Strategic Minerals. An SP Angel analyst recently visited the Redmoor site.

URU Metals* (URU LN) 10.75p, Mkt cap £8.9m – Ground geophysics at Zeb nickel project, South Africa

• URU Metals reports plans to start a ground geophysics survey combining gravity and EM at its Zeb nickel project near Mokopane, South Africa, later this month.
• The geophysical work aims to identify drilling targets over an area of ~117 hectares with field work expected to start within a month and take 3-4 days in the field.
• The company also confirms that it has “appointed a specialist service provider to implement the environmental rehabilitation guarantee which is required for the granting of the Zeb Nickel mining right”.
• Commenting on the planned geophysical survey, VP Exploration, Richard Montjoie, explained that the move “from airborne targeting to ground geophysics is the critical step to refine our highest-priority conductors along the intrusive margins …  [and] … is designed to generate decision-ready targets for efficient drilling at Zeb Nickel”.
• He also explained that “Putting the rehabilitation guarantee provider in place is a simple, value-protective step that keeps the Project on the front foot”.

Conclusion: URU’s planned ground geophysics survey at the Zeb nickel project aims to identify targets for drilling.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to URU Metals

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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