SP Angel . Morning View . Thursday 30.10.25

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Bezant Resources (BZT LN) – Hope & Gorob feasibility study

Botswana Diamonds (BOD LN) – David Horgan RIP

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Funding to advance metallurgical testwork for TiO2 product development

Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN) – Q3 production results confirm YTD production of 8 diamonds larger than 100 carats from Letšeng

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU) – 1QFY26 production update

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – Pepas MRE update as drilling gets underway in Argentina and additional porphyry identified at El Cedro

Rome Resources (RMR LN) – Initial MRE for the Bisie North project, DRC

Sylvania Platinum (SLP LN) – Higher production supports increased earnings as Thaba JV commissioning complete

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – JV with KoBold extended following completion of 4,153m of drilling

Lithium spodumene prices bounce back on rising Energy Storage Solution demand

• Lithium prices are rallying again, with spodumene prices up to $940/t SC6 in China.
• China carbonate futures are over $11,000/t for the first time since early September.
• Analysts are increasing their energy storage solution demand forecasts, expected to push the market into a deficit by 2030.
• Beijing recently unveiled government-backed measures to ramp up ESS capacity and investment.
• China is aiming to double capacity to 180GW by 2027, to support their roll-out of wind and solar energy.
• Bloomberg reports Samsung is switching EV battery production lines to boost ESS production.
• EV demand is expected to continue its 20-25% growth in 2025, whilst Adamas forecasts ESS demand to grow in the c.55%.
• China lithium stocks rose overnight, with Tianqi up 10% and the bellweather Ganfeng rising 5%.
• Australian producers are also rallying, with Pilbara climbing 5%, Liontown up 11% and MinRes up 14%.

Aluminium - Rio Tinto says its Tomago aluminium smelter in NSW, Australia may have to close if it is not able to renew its power contract at reasonable rates in 2028

• At 590,000tpa the smelter represents of 37% Australia’s total capacity and around 2x local demand.
• Tomago consumes ~10% if NSW electrical power with energy representing 40% of operating costs
• The smelter employs >1,000 people while exporting ~90% of its output to Asia.
• Australia has supported local smelters and steelworks with >$3bn of public funds including a $2.4bn rescue package for the Whyalla steelworks in South Australia.
• While the cost for protecting jobs and critical industries against competition from Asia is substantial, the potential cost of losing critical industries is likely to involve national security.
• If the smelter closes it will hand China yet greater global market share in aluminium.

IG TV Commodity Corner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7en9LCuurE 

ii TV - Macro trends, indicators, small caps.

• Precious metals, gold and copper : https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125894076/5ccc1f796b
• FTSE 100 stocks, small-cap and lithium: https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125892775/a44f96f5a1

Economics

President Trump agreed to lower import tariffs on most Chinese goods by 10% to 47% and extending a trade truce by a year following a meeting with President Xi

US dollar index strengthens following Trump – Xi meeting

• China is reported to have agreed to ease controls on rare earths exports while the US to suspend similar controls on technology related shipments for a year.
• Maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries so suspend port fees for Chinese and US vessels.
• Further agreements have been related to fentanyl controls and agricultural trade. China will resume buying soybeans from the US
• The meeting lasted just over 1.5 hours, less than 3-4h allegedly expected by Trump.
• There was no joint press conference post meeting.
• Trump said both discussed Nvidia latest chips but suggested that he won’t offer access to their latest Blackwell product line.
• Market reaction suggests the deal was a tactical truce rather than a long-term resolution.
• Few real details have been released with no comment from China and no eye contact from Xi with Trump suggesting ongoing animosity.
• We note Trump has ordered nuclear weapons trials following Russian testing of a new subsea nuclear-capable drone.
• S&P and Nasdaq futures are trading slightly lower as do Asian benchmarks.
• Brent and copper lower with gold marginally stronger just over $4,000/oz.
• VIX down 5% just over 16.0.
• Trump agreed to cut tariffs to 10% from 20% with immediate effect in a meeting with President Xi last night

US – The Fed cut rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% range, the second in a row and all in line with expectations, quoting worsening labour market conditions and signs of funding tightness in money markets.

• The central bank will also stop reducing the size of its balance sheet from December.
• The BY Fed will start reinvesting the proceeds of maturing US Treasuries held by the central bank into new government debt from December 1.
• Commenting on rates outlook Fed chair said that “a further reduction of the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion – in fact far from it”.
• Odds of a rate cut in December gone down on the comments.
• Miran, an ally of President Trump, backed a deeper half a percentage point cut.

China - Foreign direct investment fell -10.4% ytd in September vs -12.7% yoy in August

• Industrial profits climbed +3.2% ytd and -0.9% ytd yoy

UK - Nearly a third of small companies expect to downsize, sell up or close down in the next year

• Research from the Federation of Small Businesses.
• OFGEM is looking to write off as much as £500m in unpaid bills.

Currencies

US$1.1611/eur vs 1.1633/eur previous.  Yen 153.83/$ vs 152.25/$. SAr 17.202/$ vs 17.117/$. $1.319/gbp vs $1.322/gbp. 0.658/aud vs 0.661/aud. CNY 7.111/$ vs 7.099/$.

Dollar Index 99.18 vs   98.93 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,970/oz vs US$4,011/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.4moz vs 97.6moz previous

Platinum US$1,601/oz vs US$1,610/oz previous

Palladium US$1,429/oz vs US$1,416/oz previous

Silver US$47.8/oz vs US$48.2/oz previous

Rhodium US$8,075/oz vs US$8,000/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$11,053/t vs US$11,122/t previous

Aluminium US$2,871/t vs US$2,913/t previous

Nickel US$15,290/t vs US$15,360/t previous

Zinc US$3,061/t vs US$3,086/t previous

Lead US$2,030/t vs US$2,027/t previous

Tin US$35,975/t vs US$36,465/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$64.4/bbl vs US$64.2/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices were broadly unchanged even as the EIA estimated w/w US inventory draws of 6.9mb to crude, 5.9mb to gasoline and 3.4mb to distillate stocks, as utilisation fell 2% to 86.6% on domestic output of 13.6mb/d.
• European energy prices were flat on warmer weather forecasts as EU natural gas storage levels were flat w/w at 82.8% full (vs 92% 5-Yr average), with aggregate inventory at 946TWh and German weekly storage levels still stuck on ~75%.

Natural Gas €31.6/MWh vs €31.6/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $81.2/lb vs $78.9/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$105.8/t vs US$105.9/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$443.3/t vs US$443.7/t

HCC FOB Australia US$194.0/t vs US$193.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$110.0/t vs US$109.1/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$48,570/t vs US$48,570/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$72,140/t vs US$71,630/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$11,250/t vs US$11,128/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$940/t vs US$930/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$658/mtu vs US$648/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$93/lb vs US$93/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$395/t vs US$395/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.5/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.9/kg vs US$23.9/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$274/t vs US$274/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,104/t vs US$1,106/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs  US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$350.0/t vs US$350.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

BYD – European sales jump 5x to 24,963 vehicles

• The figures highlight BYD and China’s push into Western markets with each giant shipload of cars bringing in around 7,000 vehicles per voyage.
• Tesla sales fell 10.5% to 39,837 in Europe. We blame a lack of new innovation in Tesla’s design combined with Elos Musk’s tarnished image.
• BYD saw sales rise 300% to 120,859 vehicles in the first nine months in Europe vs Tesla sales falling 28.5% to 173,694 (ACEA data).
• BYD plans to double its European showrooms to 2,000 next year
• BYD is also looking to complete local supply chains to build production in Europe.
• BYD sees exports making ~20% of sales this year vs ~10% in 2024 with 800,000-1,000,000 deliveries outside mainland China this year.

Company news

Bezant Resources (BZT LN) 0.11p, Mkt cap £18m – Hope & Gorob feasibility study

• Bezant Resources has released highlights of the feasibility study for its Hope & Gorob project in Namibia including the use of the Namib Lead & Zinc Mining (NLZM) processing plant, which was announced in August, once the plant acquisition is completed.
• The Study envisages the use of pre-concentration of mine production of ~384ktpa of RoM ore prior to trucking ~180ktpa of plant feed ~190km to the concentrator for processing.
• Based on commodity prices of US$9,300/t for copper, US$2,800/oz for gold, US$31/oz for silver and US$120/t for magnetite and operating costs averaging US$55/t, the company reports that investment of US$179.2m generates an NPV10% of US$46.2m and IRR of 62%.
• In previous announcements (June 2025), Bezant Resources has indicated that, at full production Hope & Gorob is expected to produce around 7,000tpa of copper equivalent in concentrate “from open pit mining for at least 6 years”.
• Executive Chairman, Colin Bird, explained that today’s report summarises the work of “various companies and sub-consultants”, since 2022, including “a technical report on how the NLZM Processing Plant … will be used in the development of the Hope and Gorob mine”.

Botswana Diamonds (BOD LN) 0.24p, Mkt Cap £2.9m – David Horgan RIP

1. Botswana Diamonds reports the death of a co-founder and director of the company, David Horgan.
2. Mr. Horgan, who was also “cofounder and chairman of Petrel Resources Plc, cofounder and chairman of Clontarf Energy Plc, and founder chairman of Greenore Gold Plc, was a Cambridge law graduate with an MBA from Harvard Business School with a long-standing involvement in the natural resources industries.
3. In a joint statement, John Teeling and Jim Finn of Botswana Diamonds expressed their sorrow over a colleague who “revelled in high stakes, high risk resources exploration”.
4. They described his enthusiasm for the industry saying that “He was fearless travelling in dangerous territories, traipsing across swamps or exploring long abandoned mines. He spoke eight languages. After ten days or so in a new country could converse with locals in their own language and actively participate in local culture and traditions”.
5. The mining industry has its share of colourful characters and we and no doubt many others in the industry share in the loss of one of its leading figures.

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 40p, Mkt Cap £280m – Funding to advance metallurgical testwork for TiO2 product development

1. Empire Metals has raised £7m via a placing of 17.5m new shares at 40p/share.
2. The Company reports the placing was with existing institutional shareholders.
3. Funds will be used to advance metallurgical testwork and begin pilot-scale production in 2026.
4. Empire is aiming to deliver high-purity TiO2  product samples for potential end user certification.
5. Empire is also exploring options to produce TiCl4 to feed the titanium metal supply chain.
6. Additionally, Empire is exploring an ASX listing, targeting 1H26.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals

Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN) 3.6p, Mkt Cap £4.7m – Q3 production results confirm YTD production of 8 diamonds larger than 100 carats from Letšeng

• Gem Diamonds reports the production of 22,268 carats of diamonds from its Letšeng mine in Lesotho during the 3 months to 30th September (Q2 2025 – 23,547 carats).
• We estimate that this brings YTD production to 66,628 carats.
• The company confirms that the mine delivered three diamonds larger than 100 carats, including a 318 carat diamond, during the quarter “bringing the total year to date recoveries of greater than 100 carat diamonds to eight”.
• Quarterly production resulted from the processing of ~1.32mt of ore at an average grade of 1.69 carats per hundred tonnes (cpht) (Q2 2025 ~1.26mt of ore at an average recovered grade of 1.87cpht).
• Gem Diamonds reports quarterly sales of 22,830 carats of diamonds at an average price of US$1,124/carat realising US$25.7m in revenue (Q2 2025 – sales of 23,932 carats generated revenue of US$23.5m at an average price of US$980/carat).
• Sales included four individual diamonds larger than 100 carats with two stones which realised more than US$1m each contributing US$2.3m.
• The company confirms that the “highest price achieved in the Period was US$33,785 per carat for a 32.01 carat white diamond”.
• Gem Diamonds also confirms its previously reported cash conservation initiative is now complete and is delivering “the anticipated c.US$1.5 million monthly savings … from September 2025”.
• The company also confirms that “All operational and financial metrics are trending within the revised guidance issued for 2025, as disclosed in the Company's H1 2025 Trading Update” which envisaged production of 87-90,000 carats for the year.

Conclusion: Gem Diamonds remains on track to meet its full year diamond production guidance range of 87-90,000 carats with the Letšeng mine continuing to deliver large high value stones

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU) A$14.8, A$15bn – 1QFY26 production update

• Production 4.0kt TREOs including 2.0kt NdPr (4QFY25: 3.2kt TREOs and 2.1kt).
• Sales 3.7kt TREOs (4QFY25: 2.9kt).
• Av realised price A$54.3/kg TREO (4QFY25: A$60.2/kg).
• Sales proceeds A$171m.
• Operating costs (incl G&A and royalties, cash based) A$116m.
• Capitalised costs (growth, sustaining and exploration) A$66m.
• Closing cash A$1,060m, up from A$167m, post accounting for A$915m from new equity raise completed during the quarter.
• Market conditions reported to remain challenging.
• Relaxation of China magnet exports in July/August led to increased demand for NdPr from Chinese magnet producers.
• Prices pulled back in September with a pause in restocking as magnet makers assessed market demand.
• The Company is diversifying its customer base having signed an MOU with a Korean permanent magnet manufacturer to develop a magnet value chain in Malaysia.
• Additionally, the Company agreed an MOU with Noveon Magnetics, the only operational US manufacturer of sintered REE magnets, to establish a domestic US magnets supply chain.

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) 23p, Mkt Cap £80m – Pepas MRE update as drilling gets underway in Argentina and additional porphyry identified at El Cedro

• Orosur provides an update on its ongoing gold exploration work in Colombia and Argentina.
• The Company reports three additional holes drilled for the Pepas MRE, with highlights:
  • PEP065: 33.3m @ 2.84g/t Au from 31m
  • PEP065B: 33.8m @ 2.79g/t Au from 26m
  • PEP066 (met hole): 112m @ 5.25g/t Au from surface
• Hole PEP066 will enable more detailed metallurgical testing, drilled through the centre of the ore body for a representative material.
• Orosur is targeting a Pepas MRE by year end.
• El Cedro
• At the El Cedro porphyry project, which lies to the south of Pepas, geophysical and geochemical work has identified a large prospective gold/porphyry system.
• Soil sampling has been taken over 25m intervals along ridges and spurs, with gold assay results suggesting a large gold-bearing system.
• Management reports that anomalous geochemical results point to a zoned porphyry system, with soil samples returning >1g/t Au at times.
• A review of historical data suggests El Cedro may consist of multiple porphyry intrusions, with a second potential system now identified to the south.
• Orosur also notes potential for associated epithermal systems alongside the two porphyries, where high-grade rock chip samples have been recorded in veins.
• Orosur will conduct a wider mapping and soil sampling programme over the southern porphyry and a more detailed helicopter aeromagnetic and radiometric survey over the next two months.
• El Cedro drilling is targeted for 1Q26.
• El Pantano
• At El Pantano, Orosur’s 51% owned JV in Argentina, Orosur believes it has identified a epithermal gold system.
• Orosur has now built an exploration camp and a diamond drill rig is set to arrive on site this week, with drilling imminent.
• Orosur will drill a 3,000m diamond programme over sections of the 25km epithermal structure.
• Drilling is expected to be completed in January 2026, and is focused on gaining a better understanding of the vertical zonation of the system.

Conclusion: This is an exciting time for the now well-funded Orosur, with three drilling programmes across two continents. The Pepas MRE remains on track for year-end, which will open the door to economic studies and a path to gold production. Meanwhile, Orosur has now identified two porphyries at El Cedro, with believed associated epithermal vein systems. Drilling will begin in January. In Argentina, Orosur begins drilling 3,000m this week, with the programme expected to be completed in January.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Orosur Mining

Rome Resource (RMR LN) 0.31p, Mkt Cap £22m – Initial MRE for the Bisie North project, DRC

• Rome Resources reports an initial mineral resource estimate (MRE) for the Kalayi and Mont Agoma projects in the DRC – collectively the ‘Bisie North Project’.
• The CIM compliant estimate confirms “a large, multi-metallic tin-copper-zinc system” with an ‘Inferred’ 3.16mt at an average grade of 1.45% copper, 0.19% tin, 2.72% zinc &14.3g/t silver at Mont Agoma plus an additional 0.33m inferred tonnes at an average grade of 1.36% tin at Kalayi.
• The estimate, prepared by the MSA Group on behalf of Rome Resources incorporates the results from 33 drill holes at Mont Agoma and 18 holes at Kalayi.
• Today’s announcement explains that the “MRE indicates that only a fraction of the prospective licence area has been explored, with drilling to date extending to just 220 - 250 metres depth, leaving substantial scope for further discovery within the wider licence area”.
• Describing the initial estimate as “a major milestone for Rome Resources … [CEO, Paul Barrett said that it] … provides a strong foundation for the next phase of work, which will include deeper drilling in the main Mont Agoma zone, drilling out the high-grade Mont Agoma East zone ahead of a follow-up MRE, and continued testing of additional targets across the licence area” which is adjacent to Alphamin’s Bisie mine and is located “along the same geological trend”.
• Mr. Barrett explained that “internal modelling … has defined a low-to-high case exploration target of between 102,000 and 260,000 tonnes of contained tin, underscoring the considerable potential beyond the current resource envelope”.

Conclusion: The initial MRE for the Bisie North Project area has identified a polymetallic tin-copper-zinc system at Mont Agoma and a tin resource at Kalayi. Additional drilling will include deeper holes and the expanding of exploration to additional targets.

Sylvania Platinum (SLP LN) 86p, Mkt Cap £225m – Higher production supports increased earnings as Thaba JV commissioning complete

• PGM and chrome producer Sylvania  report quarterly results.
• The Company produced 24.5koz 4E PGMs, up 16%qoq.
• Plant feed at 611kt, down 9%qoq whilst grade increased 11% to 2.42g/t.
• Recoveries up 6%qoq to 58.5%.
• Revenue reported up 49% to $45m, EBITDA up 71% at $22m.
• Net profit reported up 74%qoq at $17m.
• CAPEX over the quarter at $8.4m.
• Cash up 3% at $62.7m.
• AISC reported up 30% at $1,119/oz 4E.
• Higher costs reflect higher mineral royalty taxes and increase in external material purchase and higher electricity consumption.
• Thaba JV commissioning complete over the period, with first chrome and PGM concentrates dispatched.
• Thaba JV steady-state production due 3Q26.
• Company reiterates FY26 guidance at 83-86koz 4E PGMs and 100-130kt chromite concentrate.

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.07p, Mkt Cap £3.5m – JV with KoBold extended following completion of 4,153m of drilling

• Tertiary provides an update on its JV with Kobold, with two holes now complete.
• Kobold has drilled a cumulative 4,153m, and is currently undertaking chechemical, downhole geophysics and stratigraphic analysis.
• This will support targeting for the next phase of exploration.
• Tertiary will advance to Stage 2 of their earn-in with KoBold, who are required to spend a cumulative $6m on exploration within a 24 month period.

Conclusion: The advancement to stage 2 of the Kobold-Tertiary JV is a promising sign, following the completion of two holes over 4,153m. KoBold will analyse the drilling results to target the next stage of drilling as they seek to boost their understanding of the wider geology around the Konkola project.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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