SP Angel . Morning View . Tuesday 14.10.25

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African Gold (AUE AU) – Drilling at Blaffo Guetto highlights resource expansion potential

Capstone Copper (CS CN) – Orion secures 25% interest in Santo Domingo for $360m investment

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – Improved laboratory scale leach test results ahead of planned field rests at the Boland rare-earths project

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Major milestone as maiden MRE delivered for Pitfield

Great Southern Copper (GSCU LN) – Exploration expands footprint of the Cerro Negro project

Lotus Resources (LOT AU) – Kayelekera uranium site visit

Rio Tinto  (RIO LN) – Results show Oyu Tolgoi ramp up as bauxite guidance increased.

Serabi Gold (SRB LN) – Production supported by strong grades and throughput

REE names continue a strong run amid an escalation in US-China trade tensions that included additional export restrictions on REE and other critical minerals/technology as well as news over stronger public/private support for critical industries in the US/Australia.

• WTD gains for producers/developers/recyclers include:
  • MP (+21%), Lynas (+7%);
  • USA Rare Earth (+19%), Arafura (+48%), Norther Minerals (+73%), Pensana (+12%), Mkango* (+16%), Ionic (+50%), Hastings (49%), Rainbow (+12%), New Frontier Minerals* (+19%).

*SP Angel acts as broker/nomad to Mkango, broker to New Frontier Minerals

Gold ($4,141/oz) rallies alongside US Treasuries despite stronger dollar as China escalates trade war

• Gold has pressed higher again, climbing past record highs on sustained buying from ETFs and central banks.
• The move higher has paralleled a stronger dollar, highlighting the sustained appetite for gold.
• US Treasury yields have fallen again this morning, now sitting just over 4% on the 10 year as safe haven appetite increases.
• VIX futures have jumped this morning and US equities are weak as the market continues on shaky footing.
• Beijing targeted US shipping again this morning, hitting five US units of Hanwha Ocean Co as the Beijing-Washington rift continues.
• Markets are looking to the US’ reception to China’s escalation, with gold benefitting from a further haven bid, despite cooling geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

JP Morgan announced a decade long $1.5tn “Security and Resilience Initiative” that would see investments into critical industries including AI, manufacturing, energy, defence, technologies among others.

• Capital is to be provided across IB, lending, and asset management.
• Additionally, JPM to invest up to $10bn of its own capital.
• 4 key industries (supply chain and advanced manufacturing, defence and aerospace, energy independence and resilience and frontier and strategic technologies) are further broken down into 27 sub-industries.
• Selected sub industries of 27 highlighted include
• “Critical Minerals Mining & Processing” – extracting and refining vital industrial minerals;
• “Nuclear Energy” – power generated through next generation nuclear tech;
• “Battery Storage” – chemical energy storage using advanced battery technologies;
• “Solar” – technologies for harnessing solar energy.
• The announcement marks a $500bn to previous plans to provide $1tn set aside to support companies active in aerospace, energy and defence.
• “It has become painfully clear that the United States has allowed itself to become too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals, products and manufacturing—all of which are essential for our national security,” said Jamie Dimon.

Australia is considering “critical minerals strategic reserve” including potential floor prices, Reuters cites the Age newspaper.

• PM Albanese is reported to try and secure the deal before meeting President Donald Trump on October 20 in Washington.

IG TV Commodity Corner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7en9LCuurE 

ii TV - Macro trends, indicators, small caps.

• Precious metals, gold and copper : https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125894076/5ccc1f796b
• FTSE 100 stocks, small-cap and lithium: https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125892775/a44f96f5a1

Economics

Equity indices closed higher on Monday helped by a more conciliatory tone of US administration on trade tensions with China.

• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Trump remained on track to meet xi Jinping in late October.
• However, the FT interview released this morning included a change in rhetoric with Bessent accusing China aiming to hurt global growth through disrupting supply chains.
• “This is a sign of how weak their economy is, and they want to pull everybody else down with them,” Bessent said.
• S&P and Nasdaq futures are trading 0.8% and 1.0% lower this morning.
• VIX is trading back at Friday highs.

China started collecting special charges on US ships in retaliation to a similar decision by the US implemented earlier.

• The decision serves as a further step in trade dispute escalation between two nations.
• Earlier this year, President Trump announced plans to levy port fees on China linked ships to ease the nation’s grip on the global maritime industry.

Japan – Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato called for a change in economic policy to suit the current station where inflation, rather than deflation, is becoming a concern.

• "Inflation, rather than deflation, has become a challenge for us now. In light of this, I believe it is necessary to develop policies that are appropriate for the current circumstances," he said.
• Kato comments come as newly elected Liberal Democratic Party leader Sanae Takaichi is seen as a strong supporter of Abenomics targeting reflationary policies.
• The yen strengthened on Kato comments.

UK – Unemployment climbed to 4.8% in August, the highest since May 2021, with wage growth ex bonus slowing to 4.4%.

• Payrolls dropped 10k in September, although, revision mean that there were 127k job cuts since October last year, far fewer than previously estimated.
• The pound dropped and market odds of a rate cut before year end gone up (~38% chance currently).
• Unemployment Rate (Aug/Jul/Est): 4.8/4.7/4.7
• Av Weekly Earnings (%yoy, Aug/Jul/Est): 5.0/4.8 (revised from 4.7)/4.7
• Private Earnings ex Bonus (%yoy, Aug/Jul/Est): 4.4/4.7/4.5

Ukraine – President Zelenskyy to meet President Trump in Washington on Friday.

• Both leaders held phone calls over the weekend discussing a possibility of NATO buying Tomahawk missiles for Kyiv.
• Trump previously said he is considering providing Tomahawk long range missiles to Ukraine.

Currencies

US$1.1547/eur vs 1.1611/eur previous. Yen 151.98/$ vs 152.31/$. SAr 17.473/$ vs 17.277/$. $1.326/gbp vs $1.334/gbp. 0.646/aud vs         0.652/aud. CNY 7.142/$ vs 7.132/$.

Dollar Index 99.44 vs 99.05 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,127/oz vs US$4,071/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.5moz vs 97.5moz previous

Platinum US$1,660/oz vs US$1,649/oz previous

Palladium US$1,484/oz vs US$1,467/oz previous

Silver US$52.3/oz vs US$51.7/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,275/oz vs US$7,250/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$10,535/t vs US$10,607/t previous

Aluminium US$2,744/t vs US$2,754/t previous

Nickel US$15,165/t vs US$15,240/t previous

Zinc US$2,987/t vs US$3,016/t previous

Lead US$1,980/t vs US$2,009/t previous

Tin US$35,505/t vs US$35,710/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$62.3/bbl vs US$63.7/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices slumped further after the IEA’s October OMR increased forecasts for global oil supply growth to 3mb/d in 2025 and 2.4mb/d in 2026, while also marginally lowering global oil demand growth to 0.7mb/d in each year.
• In contrast, OPEC’s October oil report reiterates forecasts for global oil demand growth of 1.3mb/d in 2025 and 1.4mb/d in 2026, as well as for non-OPEC supply growth of 0.8mb/d this year and 0.6mb/d next year, mainly from the Americas.
• Saudi Arabia’s Midad Energy plans to fund $288m in exploration costs over the next seven years as part of a production-sharing contract (PSC) signed with Sonatrach on the contractual perimeter of Illizi South, located onshore Algeria.
• Repsol has approved construction of a 100MW green hydrogen plant at the 220kb/d Cartagena refinery in Spain, which will have capacity of up to 15,000tpa following startup in 2029. The €300m project will receive €155m in public funding.

Natural Gas €31.4/MWh vs €31.8/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $79.2/lb vs $79.1/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$105.7/t vs US$107.0/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$446.8/t vs US$447.8/t

HCC FOB Australia US$192.0/t vs US$193.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$106.0/t vs US$106.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$42,725/t vs US$42,725/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$74,702/t vs US$78,170/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,830/t vs US$9,773/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$825/t vs US$825/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$603/mtu vs US$593/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$93/lb vs US$93/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$395/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.6/kg vs US$23.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$272/t vs US$273/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,979/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,099/t vs US$1,101/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

China’s pure-EV sales hit monthly record 826,000 in September

• China saw BEV sales of 826,000 in September, up 28.5% yoy and surpassing the previous monthly record of 762,000 set in December 2024.
• Sales surged as buyers rushed to use expiring tax exemptions and subsidies before a 5% vehicle tax takes effect in January 2026.
• Beijing’s full 10% sales tax will also return in 2028 under new policy.
• New model launches also drove demand, pulling the typical year-end sales spike forward by several months.
• Buyers replacing old cars with EVs can claim a 20,000 yuan subsidy whereas petrol-car purchases get 15,000 yuan.

Duracell to build £200m EV charging network in UK

• Duracell has plans to deploy multiple fast-charging sites across the UK under a £200m investment.
• The battery maker will focus on offering high-power chargers, 150-350kW, to support long-distance travel and alleviate grid constraints.
• Duracell will target locations include motorway service areas, car parks and retail hubs.
• The first sites are expected to go live in late 2025.

Company news

African Gold (AUE AU) A$0.37, Mkt Cap A$197m – Drilling at Blaffo Guetto highlights resource expansion potential

• Cote d’ivoire gold explorer African Gold report assay results from drilling at Blaffo Guetto.
• Highlight intercepts include:
  • BGDD25-001: 10m at 2.9g/t Au from 351m
  • BGDD25-003: 7m at 1.9g/t Au from 287m
  • BGDD25-005: 16m at 13.2g/t Au from 197m
  • BGDD25-007: 5m at 4.2g/t Au from 353m
  • BGDD25-008: 10m at 2.8g/t Au from 407m
  • BGDD25-010: 13m at 2.8g/t Au from 257m
  • BGDD25-012: 7m at 2.8g/t Au from 98m
• Blaffo Guetto holds 12.4mt at 2.5g/t Au for 989koz.
• The Company is currently conducting a 40,000m drilling programme to expand the MRE and test regional targets.
• Management comments they believe they are ‘well positioned to grow the Blaffo Guetto resource.’
• Company is backed by Montage Gold, who are currently building the Kone Gold project in Cote d’Ivoire.

Capstone Copper (CS CN) C$12.7, Mkt Cap C$9.7bn – Orion secures 25% interest in Santo Domingo for $360m investment

• Capstone Copper has agreed to sell Orion Resource Partners a 25% interest in Santo Domingo and Sierra Norte.
• Orion will pay a $225m cash consideration payable upon FID, alongside a $75m matching contribution payable within six months of FID.
• Orion will also pay a $60m cash consideration upon various milestones.
• Additionally, Orion will take equity in Capstone via subscription, with the $10m proceeds used for exploration.
• Santo Domingo FID expected in 2H26.
• Santo Domingo project:
  • 19 year LOM producing 106kt Cu over first seven years
  • C1 cash costs post by-product of $0.28/lb over first seven years.
  • $2.3bn development CAPEX.
  • Post-tax NPV8 of $1.7bn and IRR of 24% at $4.1/lb Cu.
  • Reserves of 436mt at 0.33% Cu, 26.5% Fe and 0.05g/t Au.
• Capstone believes there is potential for mine life extensions and increased copper output at Santo Domingo, whilst Sierra Norte holds potential as a future sulphide feed source.

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 4.6p, Mkt cap £36m – Improved laboratory scale leach test results ahead of planned field rests at the Boland rare-earths project

• Cobra Resources reports column leach test results from a 55kg sample of material from its Boland rare-earths project in South Australia.
• The tests, which were undertaken in collaboration with Australia’s Nuclear Scientific Technology Organisation (ANSTO) showed “Rapid recoveries enabled by high permeabilities” with recoveries of 68% for terbium, 63% for dysprosium, 62% for samarium, 57% for neodymium and 51% for praseodymium over the 17 days of the test.
• The test material was sourced from “intervals of mineralisation from three sonic core holes yielding a head grade of 1,194ppm TREO (252ppm Nd+Pr and 33pm Dy +Tb)” and used “0.3 molar, (NH4)2SO4 AMSUL targeting pH3”.
• Cobra Resources confirms that “Preparations are underway to perform in-field permeability tests that aim to emulate the permeability rates achieved in this study - regulatory EPEPR approval received; a discharge permit is expected shortly that will enable the commencement of field testing”.
• Managing Director, Rupert Verco, commented on the 17-day test results explaining that “our first bench scale study … took 150 days to achieve 68% recoveries … [similar to those achieved] … in just 17 days and at a lower molarity. This means reduced costs and increased production capacity”.
• Looking ahead to the planned field testing in the context of the results reported today, Mr. Verco said that if “we replicate these permeabilities in field testing, the commercial, environmental and strategic benefits of the Boland discovery will be undisputable”.
• He also commented that “Updated Chinese export restrictions highlight the need for cost effective, reliably sourced heavy rare earths enabling emerging supply chain resilience. Cobra is advancing a strategy to address market needs for a sustainably sourced, refined heavy rare earth carbonate and the results of this study highlight the Boland Project's ability to meet this demand”.

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 60p, Mkt Cap £416m – Major milestone as maiden MRE delivered for Pitfield

1. Empire Metals has released a JORC MRE for its Pitfield Titanium Project in Western Australia.
2. The MRE is reported for the Thomas and Cosgrove only, taking into account their in-situ Weathered Zones.
3. Thomas MRE:
   1. Indicated:641mt at 5.3% for 34mt contained
   2. Inferred: 1,130mt at 4.8% TiO2 for 54mt contained
   3. Total: 1,770mt at 5% TiO2 for 88mt contained
4. Cosgrove MRE:
   1. Indicated: 56mt at 5.8% TiO2 for 3.25mt contained
   2. Inferred: 373mt at 5.7% TiO2 for 21.3mt contained
   3. Total: 430mt at 5.8% TiO2 for 24.6mt contained
5. Combined MRE:
   1. Total: 2,200mt at 5.1% TiO2 for 112.6mt contained (697mt at 5.3% TiO2 in indicated category)
6. The MRE is calculated using a 2.5% TiO2 cut-off grade and is constrained in a pitshell.
7. A total of 261 holes have been drilled at Thomas and 83 holes at Cosgrove over 18,271m and 8,080m respectively.
8. Importantly, both Thomas and Cosgrove have demonstrated high-grade central cores, with Thomas expected to provide ‘adequate feed for the first of several generational mine lives.’
9. Going forward, Empire will conduct additional infill drilling at Thomas in 1H26 using AC/RC holes, with diamond drilling at Thomas focused on metallurgical and geotechnical work.
10. At Cosgrove, further MRE grid drilling will be conducted over the next few months.

Conclusion: The delivery of a maiden JORC MRE for Pitfield is a major milestone for Empire. Management have progressed the asset from discovery to MRE-stage methodically and within guided timelines. The MRE highlights Pitfield’s strong development potential, with 2.2bnt at 5.1% TiO2 for 113mt contained TiO2 over two high-grade and low-strip deposits. Going forward, Empire plans MRE expansion alongside scoping and development studies. Metallurgical studies have highlighted the deposit’s potential to produce a 99.25% TiO2 product, which is expected to fetch premium prices in the high-grade pigment and titanium metal feedstock markets. Pitfield has the potential to be a multi-generational asset in a Tier One jurisdiction in a commodity with limited long-life development projects. Focus now will be on optimising the flowsheet to maximise margins and capital intensity as management progresses the asset through feasibility and financing stages.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals

Great Southern Copper (GSCU LN) 3.8p, Mkt Cap £21m – Exploration expands footprint of the Cerro Negro project

• Great Southern Copper reports that channel rock-chip sampling at the Monolith target has expanded the area of known mineralisation at Cerro Negro, Chile.
• Monolith is a site of artisanal mining located “approximately 400m to the southeast of the Mostaza mine” where a second phase of drilling was completed earlier this year extending the mineralisation in the historic mine over 500m towards the south.
• A total of 48 samples assayed at grades of up to 2.05% copper and 271g/t silver ( and averaging 0.31% copper and 35.4g/t silver) have helped outline a zone “of mineralisation greater than 50 metres … wide” which remains open laterally to the south and southeast “where exploration is continuing”.
• The company also confirms the arrival of a second diamond drilling rig “to advance Mostaza Phase III drill programme” at Cerro Negro where initially the company plans infill and extension drilling on the Lens 2 mineralisation.
• Confirming that Great Southern Copper is working to “advance exploration across additional targets within the Cerro Negro prospect area to expand the mineralised footprint”, CEO, Sam Garrett, said that the “Company has previously reported results of high-grade Cu-Ag in rock chip samples along the Mostaza Fault up to 2.5 kilometres to the south of the Mostaza mine. These results now extend that work to the east of Mostaza, reinforcing our confidence in the broader district-scale potential of the system”.

Lotus Resources (LOT AU) A$0.24, Mkt Cap A$650m – Kayelekera uranium site visit

• One of our analysts is in Malawi this morning visiting the Kayelekera uranium mine.
• Kayelekera is Malawi’s first industrial-scale commercial mining operation, demonstrating the ability of Lotus working with the Malawi government to develop a sophisticated mining and processing operation in northern Malawi. 
• The visit shows ongoing work to rebuild and improve the former process plant built by Paladin.
• Substantial work is ongoing to modernise and reconfigure the operation as production ramps up.
• Management have started processing ore from historic run-of-mine stockpiles ahead of mining fresh ore from the Kayelekera mine with the main processing already commissioned.

Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – 5,003p, Mkt cap £64bn – Results show Oyu Tolgoi ramp up as bauxite guidance increased.

• Rio Tinto reports 3Q25 production results, reporting record production records from their bauxite and Oyu Tolgoi operations.
• Pilbara Iron ore shipments flat yoy at 84.3mt, guided towards lower end of 323-338mt for FY25.
• Pilbara shipments impacted by cyclone impacts in Q1, expected to recover half.
• IOC iron pellets and concentrate at 2.3m, guidance unchanged at lower end of 9.7-11.4mt
• Bauxite production up 9%yoy to 16.4mt, guidance upgraded to 59-61mt (from 57-59mt).
• Alumina production up 7%yoy to 1.9mt.
• Aluminium production up 6% to 0.86mt.
• Copper production up 10%yoy to 204kt, guidance towards higher end at 780-850kt for FY25.
• Lithium production at 13kt LCE, up 3%qoq.
• Lithium production from Fenix impacted by annual maintenance, whilst Mt Cattlin placed on care and maintenance from March 2025.
• TiO2 slag production down 1%yoy to 0.3mt, guiding towards lower end at 1-1.2mt for FY25.
• 2025 cost guidance unchanged at $23-24.5/t iron ore and copper C1 costs of $1.1-1.3/lb.

Conclusion: A better quarter from Rio supported by a ramp up from Oyu Tolgoi underground, expected to boost copper output from the asset by 50% this year. Focus now on a strong end to year from Pilbara iron ore, whilst Simandou saw first ore loaded. Bauxite production upgraded on higher utilisation rates. In end markets, stronger hot metal production has supported iron ore prices, whilst major production remains flat. Mill margins increased in Q3, whilst blast furnace utilisation rates increased and Chinese steel exports remain strong, up 9%yoy. Supply disruptions in copper saw sustained tightness in copper concentrate markets, whilst Chinese demand remains strong.

Serabi Gold (SRB LN) 280p, Mkt Cap £211m – Production supported by strong grades and throughput

1. Serabi reports production for 3Q25.
2. The Company produced 12.1koz over the quarter, up from 10.5koz in Q2.
3. Production rose on increased throughput to 54kt at 7.2g/t Au.
4. Serabi reports 3,875m of horizontal development over the quarter, with 2,016m of ore development.
5. Cash reported at period end of $39m, with net cash of $33m.
6. Guidance on track at 44-47koz for the year.

*An SP Angel analyst has visited the Serabi’s gold mining operations in Brazil

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

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Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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