Gold sees sharpest sell-off in 12 years as market takes stock of its new height

 

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

 

Alpha Exploration Ltd (ALEX CN) – John Wilton steps in to lead exploration to further future discovery and development

Fresnillo  (FRES LN) – Q3 results show lower production in line with mine plan, 2025 guidance unchanged

Greatland Resources (GGP LN) – 240,000m of resource drilling of at Telfer identifies mine life extension opportunities

GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc (GROC LN) – €5.2m EIFO Loan

Hochschild Mining (HOC LN) – 3Q25 production update

Pensana (PRE LN) – MOU with permanent magnets producer

Tesoro Gold (TSO AU) – First assay from the funded ~38,000m drilling programme

VALE* (VALE US) – Iron ore output rises on S11D ramp up

Wia Gold* (WIA AU) – Drilling from 118 RC holes and 27 diamond holes as DFS on track for 2H26

 

Gold ($4,080/oz) sees sharpest sell-off in 12 years as market takes stock of its new height

  • Gold has risen $350/oz since 10th October driven by central banks switching out of US Treasuries into other assets, ETF buying
  • Increased option trading suggests a rise in speculative capital with >2m option contracts on the GLD ETF trading on Thursday and Friday last week.
  • Signs of the rally fading triggered significant profit taking, causing the sharp sell-off despite lower US Treasury yields and Trump threatening 155% tariffs on China.
  • Buying has also been supported by Tether, the crypto stablecoin giant, who are building their bullion reserves alongside investing in the mining sector via royalty company Elemental Altus.
  • Bloomberg reported Tether has added $8bn in gold to its balance sheet as of July, with this expected to have grown subsequently.
  • China is not the only central bank bolstering gold reserves, with Poland, Russia, Iran and Bulgaria all adding notably in 2H25.
  • We suspect gold will continue its strong run despite this setback shaking out many leveraged traders.
  • The buyers who have driven gold to current levels have substantial firepower and may well resume the run after a quick shake of the tree.
  • Many see the move in gold as part of an attempt to denigrate the US dollar and collapse the United States and its military might.
  • Some believe China may be storing gold outside China to back the RMB and better internationalise its currency.
  • Forcing BHP to accept RMB on ~30% of its iron ore sales into China is a substantial move but how often can China repeat this move?
  • China was a major buyer and holder of US dollars and Treasuries but appears to have reversed this view.
  • The market expects the Fed to cut rates by 0.25-0.5% causing US 10year bond yields to fall below 4%.
  • Russia doesn’t want to stop the war in Ukraine and plans to break the dominance of the USA and US dollar.
  • China appears cojoined in this initiative and we suspect President Xi may refuse to meet Trump in South Korea at end October unless Trump chickens out on hits Tariff demands.
  • Either way China and Russia appear determined to break the US dollar and we suspect the economic war will continue to run alongside the bloodshed in Ukraine.
  • The big question is can Chinese manufacturing sufficiently transition away from US consumption with sales into the rest of the world?
  • US and EU policymakers look increasingly likely to relax moves to stimulate greater EV buying which will hold back Chinese EV exports.
  • China’s leaders will sit for the fourth Plenum of the 14th CCP Central Committee, to set the direction of policy for their 15th Five-year plan to run from 2026-2030. They will have much to discuss!

 

Zinc - Zinc backwardation extends out to >$323/t as Chinese traders caught short of nearby metal

  • A major trader is thought to be cancelling warrants and holding back metal from the LME with Chinese zinc smelters unable to deliver sufficient physical metal into the market.
  • The Chinese smelters may be holding reverse arbitrage positions eg. long SHFE and short LME.
  • Traders reckon if Zinc price rises >$3,100/t the shorts might have to capitulate. 
  • In the words of Warren Buffett, "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked,"

 

Mali - Loulo-Gounkoto gold operations in Mali restart for the first time in more than nine months under state management.

  • Barrick suspended operations in January after Malian government blocked exports, seized gold and detained senior employees.
  • The fallout followed the government effort to transfer local Barrick operations onto the new mining code.
  • The operation produced >720koz in 2024.

 

IG TV Commodity Corner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7en9LCuurE 

ii TV - Macro trends, indicators, small caps.

 

Dow Jones Industrials +0.47%at46,925
Nikkei 225 -0.02%at49,308
HK Hang Seng -0.93%at25,787
Shanghai Composite -0.07%at3,914
US 10 Year Yield (bp change) -0.2at3.96

 

Economics

Saudi Arabia and Australia officials are meeting in Riyadh this week at the Saudi-ANZUK Forum discussing trade, deals and investment.

  • New Zealand and UK delegates are also attending.
  • The two day event will look to advance business relationships pursuing deals in metals, mining and finance.
  • Australian miners currently account for just 10% of the 70 overseas businesses exploring for mineral resources in Saudi Arabia.

 

Japan – New PM Sanae Takaichi ordered a fresh package of pro spending budget initiatives.

  • The package includes subsidies for electricity and gas charges during the winter as well as regional grants to ease pressures.
  • A series of initiatives targeted at small and medium sized businesses to raise wages and increase capital investment.
  • Consumer inflation has been running at or above the 2% target for more than three years.

 

UK – Inflation came in below expectations dragging the pound lower.

  • Core and services CPI remain elevated limiting the ability of monetary authorities to support economic activity.
  • Markets see a 70% chance of a rate cut before year end, up from over 40% before the inflation report release.
  • CPI (%yoy, Sep/Aug/Est): 3.8/3.8/4.0
  • Core CPI (%yoy, Sep/Aug/Est): 3.5/3.6/3.7
  • Services CPI (%yoy, Sep/Aug/Est): 4.7/4.7/4.8

 

Currencies

US$1.1603/eur vs 1.1632/eur previous. Yen 151.80/$ vs 151.10/$. SAr 17.391/$ vs 17.279/$. $1.333/gbp vs $1.339/gbp. 0.650/aud vs         0.649/aud. CNY 7.124/$ vs 7.117/$.

Dollar Index 98.99 vs 98.77 previous.

 

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,138/oz vs US$4,326/oz previous

Gold ETFs 98.9moz vs 98.6moz previous

Platinum US$1,538/oz vs US$1,613/oz previous

Palladium US$1,417/oz vs US$1,475/oz previous

Silver US$49.0/oz vs US$51.5/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,800/oz vs US$8,000/oz previous

 

Base metals:   

Copper US$10,653/t vs US$10,644/t previous

Aluminium US$2,804/t vs US$2,769/t previous

Nickel US$15,175/t vs US$15,240/t previous

Zinc US$3,007/t vs US$2,991/t previous

Lead US$1,994/t vs US$1,993/t previous

Tin US$35,640/t vs US$35,265/t previous

 

Energy:           

Oil US$62.2/bbl vs US$60.7/bbl previous

  • Crude oil prices rose on the cancellation of high-level talks and a planned Trump-Putin summit, with the API also estimating a 3.0mb w/w draw to US crude stocks.
  • European energy prices were stable as France's nuclear generation rose 4 w/w to 73% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.

Natural Gas €32.1/MWh vs €31.6/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $76.3/lb vs $76.7/lb previous

 

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$105.2/t vs US$105.1/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$444.0/t vs US$445.2/t

HCC FOB Australia US$191.8/t vs US$193.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$106.5/t vs US$106.5/t

 

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$47,110/t vs US$45,650/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$71,099/t vs US$71,167/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,331/t vs US$10,299/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$860/t vs US$860/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$633/mtu vs US$628/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$93/lb vs US$93/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$395/t vs US$395/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.6/kg vs US$23.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$273/t vs US$273/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,102/t vs US$1,103/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$350.0/t vs US$350.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

 

EV & battery news

DOE cancels over $700m in US battery and manufacturing projects with more to follow

  • The US Department of Energy has cancelled $718m in grants covering five projects as part of a wider $20bn review of Biden-era clean-energy.
  • The affected firms Ascend Elements, American Battery Technology, Anovion, ICL Specialty Products and LuxWall had funding pulled as the DOE said the projects missed milestones and failed to meet economic viability or taxpayer-return criteria.
  • Cancellations affect major EV-battery and component plants, including Ascend’s $1bn Kentucky facility using recycled materials.
  • Energy Secretary Chris Wright said more cancellations will follow.
  • Democrats say the cancellations are unlawful and risk major job losses, with 37 senators signed a letter warning the move violates funding obligations.
  • The companies plan to appeal or replace lost DOE funding through equity and private finance

 

Cylib announce EV-battery recycling factory for 2027

  • German battery recycling specialists Cylib has announced plans for a factory set to open in 2027, capable of recycling up to 140,000 EV batteries annually.
  • The facility will support the circular-economy push in EV supply chains and help meet growing demand for battery raw-material sourcing.
  • Cylib have secured €26.1m investment from the EU for the project that will use a process that recovers up to 90% of the critical materials in the battery.

 

 Overnight ChangeWeekly Change Overnight ChangeWeekly Change
BHP-1.4%-0.1%Freeport-McMoRan-2.1%-1.6%
Rio Tinto-1.1%0.5%Vale-1.1%2.7%
Glencore0.7%-1.8%Newmont Mining-9.0%-4.7%
Anglo American1.0%-3.1%Fortescue-0.3%2.6%
Antofagasta0.8%-4.3%Teck Resources-3.4%-1.1%

 

Company news

Alpha Exploration Ltd (ALEX CN) C$0.52/s, Mkt cap C$50m – John Wilton steps in to lead exploration to further future discovery and development

  • Alpha Exploration has announced the appointment of John Wilton as its new full-time ceo.
  • Wilton takes over from interim CEO Tim Livesey, an ex Barrick geologist, who has managed the company in recent months.
  • We know Wilton from his time at Antofagasta and at BE Metals where he has manged numerous exploration campaigns across Africa.
  • Alpha has a particularly compelling portfolio of exploration properties in Eritrea and looking at other potential opportunities in the Arabian-Nubian Sheild and Africa.
  • Eritrea
    • Aburna Gold project: RAB drilling shows potential gold mineralization underlying thick or transported soil cover within a 7km x 2km zone
      • RAB samples range from 0.0.004/t to 9.76g/t to gold
      • A map in the press release shows the location of gold-bearing samples across part of the property
    • Anagulu gold-copper Prospect,
    • Tolegimja base metal Prospect
    • Kosolda gold target are all located at Alpha’s 100% owned, 514km2
    • Kerkasha concession in Eritrea.

Conclusion: Alpha has a very promising portfolio of exploration targets across the Arabian-Nubian Shield. They are well backed by some major funds and have a strong and experienced team who know how to operate in the areas their licenses are in. John Wilton is an experienced and dedicated African-focussed geologist and we look forward to future results from the team.

 

Fresnillo  (FRES LN) 2,156p, Mkt Cap £16bn – Q3 results show lower production in line with mine plan, 2025 guidance unchanged

  • Silver major Fresnillo produced 11.7moz Au over the quarter and 151koz Au, down 6.6% and 4.1% respectively.
  • Reduction in silver output reflects lower ore grades at San Julian Veins in line with mine plan, and the ceasing of production at San Julián DOB.
  • Lower volumes of ore and grade processed combined with lower recoveries at Ciénega on increased oxide throughput.
  • Ore volumes lower at Saucito on slower mining cycles from increased ventilation requirements.
  • Gold production lower on lower grades in line with mine plan at Herradura, and lower ore grade at San Julian veins, somewhat offset by higher ore grade and recoveries at Ciénega.
  • YTD gold production up 8.8% to 465kozyoy.
  • Company retains guidance of:
    • Ag: 47.5-54.5moz
    • Au: 550-590koz
    • Pb: 56-92kt
    • Zn: 93-103kt

 

Greatland Resources (GGP LN) 380p, Mkt Cap £2.7bn – 240,000m of resource drilling of  at Telfer identifies mine life extension opportunities

  • Greatland, who hold the Telfer mine, report drilling results from their 240,000m programme for FY26.

·        The company drilled 711 holes totalling 53,543m in the 3 months to 30th September to expand and upgrade the mineral resource inventory of the West Dome open pit and underground and Main Dome underground resources at its Telfer mine in WA.

  • At West Dome Open Pit, drilling is aimed to increase geological confidence of Stage 7 and Stage 2 extensions.
  • At West Dome Underground, drilling is aimed at delivering a maiden MRE for 1Q26.
  • At Main Dome Underground, drilling intended to grow the current resource with 67 holes drilled over the past quarter.

·        This keeps it on course to “deliver the targeted 240,000m of drilling in FY26, with a third reverse circulation (RC) rig mobilised during the quarter and a fifth underground diamond drilling rig mobilising in October”.

·        A total of 25,286m was drilled for resource growth and a further 16,010m to increase the resource confidence levels of the Stage 2 and Stage 7 extensions to the West Dome Open Pit.

·        An additional 4,862m (9 holes) was drilled at the West Dome Underground area where the company is aiming to deliver an initial resource estimate “in the March 2026 quarter”.

·        Sixty-seven holes (7,386m) were drilled for resource conversion and expansion at the Main Dome Underground area with continuing resource extension drilling successfully expanding the ESC South and Kylo areas.

·        Today’s announcement also describes exploration drilling at satellite deposits with the potential to provide additional feed to the Telfer mill.

·        At the ‘Paterson South Farm-in’ area, “drill testing of Telfer style targets at Paterson Dome intersected further coherent copper mineralisation. Drill testing of geophysical targets at the Atlantis prospect … [was] … completed with drilling ongoing at the Teague prospect”.

·        At the Ernest Giles prospect, “first pass testing of Induced Polarity (IP) anomalies with RC drilling and pre-collars completed with encouraging pathfinder mineralisation identified and diamond tails still to come”.

·        Managing Director, Shaun Day, commented that the results obtained so far support “the potential for multi-year Telfer life of mine extension from both open pit and underground opportunities”.

·        He described newly identified high grade mineralisation “at the West Dome Underground … [as] … particularly exciting … [saying that it]… presents the possibility of an entirely new high-grade underground mining centre beneath the currently active West Dome Open Pit”.

·        He explained that existing underground infrastructure provides “ready access from the Main Dome Underground” and that a new underground drive currently being developed has “the ability to link to the existing Main Dome Underground crusher and hoist”.

  • On a regional scale, Greatland is targeting several existing satellites in the Paterson region within trucking distance from Telfer mill.
  • Paterson Dome drilling has intersected copper mineralisation with drilling ongoing at the Teague prospect.

Conclusion: Q1 FY 2026 drilling at Telfer is running ahead of schedule and identifying opportunities to expand the resource inventory and extend the mine life from areas which are relatively close to existing mine infrastructure.

 

GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc (GROC LN) 3.22, Mkt cap 8.4m – €5.2m EIFO Loan

  • GreenRoc reports the Danish Export and Investment Fund (EIFO) has provided a €5.2m secured loan facility for work on its Amitsoq graphite project in Greenland.
  • The loan will help finance further work including:
    • The completion of “infill and geotechnical drilling” which “will enable the Company to proceed the Mine to the PFS/DFS stage”; as well as
    • “financing the construction of a fully operational pilot plant will enable GreenRoc to produce spherical graphite so that end users may carry out their own quality and certification tests for an offtake decision”
  • The loan is available to be “drawn down during the first two years of the term at GreenRoc's sole election, and has a maturity of 5 years or, if sooner, on the date of commissioning by GreenRoc of a commercial AAM … [active anode material] … plant”.
  • Today’s announcement describes that “if GreenRoc raises £15m or more over 18 months from other sources of debt or equity capital … EIFO may elect either to be repaid in cash or to convert the loan into ordinary shares … at an effective 20% discount to the Ordinary Shares' market price at that date”.
  • In order to manage dilution arising from a conversion by EIFO, “if GreenRoc's market capitalisation is less than £30m on conversion, it will be treated for the purposes of conversion as if it has a market capitalisation of £30m”.
  • Chairman, George Frangeskides, who is also Chairman of Alba Mineral Resources, described the agreement with EIFO as “the most significant moment for GreenRoc since the creation of the Company in late 2021”.
  • He said the funds “will enable us to make a major leap forward in the development of both the Amitsoq Mine and our downstream graphite processing capabilities”.

Conclusion:  A €5.2m loan from EIFO will support resource definition drilling and PFS/DFS work for Amitsoq as well as a pilot plant producing sa spherical graphite product allowing potential customers to undertake their own testing of the product’s suitability for their needs.

 

Hochschild Mining (HOC LN) 393p, Mkt Cap £1.9bn – 3Q25 production update

  • Production was affected by a turnaround plan at Mara Rosa (Brazil) following a four week suspension and lower processed grades at Inmaculada (Peru).
  • At Mara Rosa, production resumed in July with two of the four tailings filters.
  • Remaining two came online mid-September and mi-Octobe.
  • Mara Rosa YTD production 33.0koz GE (+130%yoy).
  • At Inmaculada, production was affected by lower grades due to mine sequencing.
  • One-off geomechanical challenges temporarily restricted access to a high grade zone.
  • Inmaculada YTD production 156.1koz GE (-7%yoy).
  • 3Q25 production
    • 48.4koz gold (-31%yoy)
    • 1.8moz silver (-17%yoy)
    • 70.3koz GE (-27%yoy)
  • YTD25
    • 164.0koz gold (-6%yoy)
    • 5.6moz silver (-10%)
    • 231.9koz GE (-7%yoy)
  • FY25 production guidance reiterated at 291-319koz GE, AISC $1,980-2,080/oz.
  • Closing cash $92m (Jun25: $110m).
  • Net debt $246m (Jun25: $202m) reflecting lower production at Mara Rosa, turnaround plan related capex.
  • ND/EBITDA remains low at 0.50x.

 

Pensana (PRE LN) 133p, Mkt Cap £396m – MOU with permanent magnets producer

  • The Company signed an MOU with Vacuumschmelze GmbH & Co. KG to establish mine-to-magnet supply chain in the US.
  • The offtake agreement includes a supply of MREC to US production facilities.
  • The agreement is for an initial 5y period, subject to extension.
  • Pricing to be agreed.
  • US production facilities are targeting 2,000tpa of permanent magnets initially rising to 12,000t by 2029.
  • The Longonjo mine is reported to be in construction scheduled for maiden production in 2027.
  • Pensana management is considering to bring production forward to late 2026.
  • Vacuumschmelze is a leading global producer of advanced magnetic solutions, rare earth permanent magnets, and inductive components.
  • The Company employs more than 4,200 people serving customers in more than 80 different market segments.

 

Tesoro Gold (TSO AU) A$0.06, Mkt Cap A$159m – First assay from the funded ~38,000m drilling programme

  • The Company released assays from first eleven holes from recently launched drilling programme at the El Zorro Gold Project, Chile.
  • Eleven holes comprised three infill and eight extensional.
  • Selected results include:
    • (ZDDH0385 Infill) 43m @ 1.98g/t from 476m including 5.9m @ 7.86g/t from 511m;
    • (ZDDH0389 Infill) 80m @ 0.93g/t from 119m including 31m @ 1.62g/t from 163m;
    • (ZDDH0387 Extensional – norther extension of Ternera) 10m @ 1.70g/t from 60m including 2m @ 7.20g/t from 70m
  • The fully funded ~38,000m drilling programme includes three concurrent streams including:
  • ~20,000m of infill drilling supporting PFS works;
  • ~6,000m stepout drilling targeting shallow northern and southern extension to the existing Ternera Deposit.
  • ~12,000m regional drilling and follow up on previous results at Kitsune, Caderillas and Toro Blanco.
  • Four drill rigs are currently turning across the infill and extensional drilling.
  • The programme is expected to be completed 1Q26.
  • The team belies El Zorro has the geological potential to host multiple gold deposits.
  • The Company raised A$34m at A$0.053 in late September to fund drilling and progress the El Zorro gold Project through to a FID.

 

VALE* (VALE US) $11.3, Mkt Cap $51bn – Iron ore output rises on S11D ramp up

  • Brazilian iron ore major Vale reports 3Q25 results.
  • The Company produced 94.4mt Fe, up 3.8% yoy, with 2025 guidance retained at 325-335mt.
  • Iron ore production supported by S11D, which delivered highest ever 3Q production and increased production from Southern and Southeastern systems.
  • Fines price realised at $94.4/t, up4.2%yoy for the quarter.
  • Pellet production down 23% at 8mt, with 9M25 production down 17% on weaker premiums.
  • Pellet price realised at $131/t, down 12%yoy for the quarter.
  • Copper production up 5.7%yoy to 91kt, up 11.4% for the first nine months.
  • Copper production increase driven by increased output from Salobo, whilst Sossego and Thompson output fell.
  • Nickel production steady yoy at 47kt.
  • Nickel production supported by increased output from Voisey’s Bay but lower output from Sudbury.
  • Iron ore all-in premiums up 23.5% at $2.1/t.

*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Vale

 

Wia Gold* (WIA AU) A$0.34, Mkt Cap A$501m – Drilling from 118 RC holes and 27 diamond holes as DFS on track for 2H26

  • Namibian gold developer WIA Gold released drilling results from their Kokoseb project, where drilling has focused on expanding the 2.93moz MRE.
  • WIA reports 118 RC holes and 27 diamond holes.
  • Five diamond drill rigs are currently focused on better defining the high-grade shoots for a future underground resource.
  • At the Central Zone, where 500m of strike has been identified, hole KDD097 returned 27m at 3.3g/t Au (inc. 11m at 5.2g/t) from 474m, intercepting the southernmost mineralisation to date.
  • Hole KDD103 targeted mineralisation directly below the scoping study pit, returning 5m at 6.8g/t Au from 245m.
  • Drilling also targeted Central zone sub-parallel high-grade shoot extensions, with Hole KDD096 returning 11m at 12.3g/t Au from 224m and 8.2m at 5.1g/t Au from 230m.
  • WIA is also exploring a sub-parallel high-grade shoot, extending beyond the MRE boundary and intercepted by KRC331.
  • Drilling from this area included:
    • KDD093: 13m at 1.26g/t Au from 126m, 4.6m at 2.59g/t Au from 191m, 5m at 2.6g/t Au from 221m, 8.2m at 5.1g/t Au from 230m
    • KDD094: 9.4m at 1.86g/t Au from 227m
    • KDD096: 4m at 3g/t Au from 27m, 11m at 1.34g/t Au from 109m, 10.9m at 12.3g/t Au from 224m.
  • Hole KDD086 intersected the deepest mineralisation to date within the Central Zone at 47m at 1.49g/t Au.
  • Multiple RC holes were conducted for infill purposes, targeting the Northern and Gap Zones, expected to support a resource update growing the Indicated category.
  • WIA has also conducted grade control RC drilling, targeting the Central Zone.
  • WIA’s current scoping study envisages 146kozpa over 11 year mine life from a mineral inventory of 59mt at 0.97g/t Au for 1.83moz Au.
    • Post-tax NPV5 of $646m and IRR of 38% at US$2,600/oz Au.
    • NPV5 of $1,269m and IRR of 60% at $3,450/oz.
  • Timeline:
    • Mining Licence to be submitted to Ministry of Mines and Energy in October 2025
    • ESIA nearing completion, due for submission in 1Q26
    • DFS due 2H26
    • Maiden underground MRE due mid-2026
    • Exploitation permit award expected 1H26
    • Financing due 2H26

Conclusion: WIA is one of our favourite gold development stories currently given the low-risk Namibian jurisdiction, simple metallurgy and open-pittable ounces. The current drilling programme highlights Josef El Raghy’s team’s intention to progress the asset quickly towards production, with financing and permits expected in 2026. Further higher-grade intercepts at depth support management’s plans for an underground MRE in mid-2026, whilst further open-pit ounce additions are expected from the sub-parallel zone and below the current open pit.

*An SP Angel Analyst holds shares in WIA Gold

 

 

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

 

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

 

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

 

 

 

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

 

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

 

Sources of commodity prices 
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, SilverBGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, SteelBloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, CobaltLME
Oil BrentICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron OreNYMEX
Thermal CoalBloomberg OTC Composite
Coking CoalSSY
RRESteelhome
  •  
Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, RutileAsian Metal
  

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This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II - Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return

SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange.

 

 
 

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